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GDT: New Jersey @ Edmonton - 1/11/12


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#201 Neb00rs

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Posted 12 January 2012 - 01:50 PM

Funny, for all the complaining about the goaltending, in four of the last five games they've allowed only one goal, two goals in a fifth game, and three goals in a sixth. The other two were bretty brutal...6 goals in each one...and the goaltending in Calgary was as bad as it gets. But we keep stressing the importance of being able to save 90% (at the very least) of the shots that come their way...well, here are the save%s over each of those eight games:

.957, .966, .906, .778, .917, .976, .571 (ouch), .957

No one's going to take a gander at the Devils' goaltender tandem and think they've got a couple of brick walls in net, but as we've seen, at least recently, there's reasons to hope their play might be getting better, even if we have to deal with Calgary-type trainwrecks here and there.

I didn't read through the whole thread, but Kovy's second intermission interview really jumped out at me...the guy seemed so focused, almost annoyed that he couldn't stay out there...almost like "Screw this interview sh!t, and this intermission, I want to get out there and I want to keep playing." It's weird, as much as he improved when Lemaire took over, and was trying to improve his shortcomings(and as frustrating as he can be, I don't think not trying was ever Kovy's problem), now that I see the way he's playing lately, it feels like he's being more true to himself, and is more comfortable on the ice as a result. It means we'll have still have to deal with "WTF?" moments, and "WTF?" games, and occasionally even two or three "WTF?!?" games in a row, but if the overall result is what we've been seeing for a while now (13 G and 14 A in his last 22 GP), I'll take it.

Nice post and it's nice to see someone who is generally anti-Chuk to at least acknowledge it when Kovy is playing well...very well.
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#202 Triumph

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Posted 12 January 2012 - 02:02 PM

Exactly. Thanks for pulling the individual game numbers together like that. The distribution is off, which presents skewed results.
The Devils seasons stats at this point present a pretty classic statistical "lie" right now. Unfortunately we've got a few fellow fans in our midst who apparently have just enough understanding of statistics to be dangerous, and not enough to recognize the impact that the distribution spread can and does have.

I don't blame goaltending for our goals against problems this season. The problem is clearly the defense corp, and this illustration helps to highlight the issue. Goaltenders do not go from having .920 save percentages to .650 save percentages without help.


What? This is total blather. No one has control over goals against distribution - this is why goal differential tends to be more predictive than a team's record halfway through a season. Teams don't have control over winning or losing one goal games.

If you go back over the entire season, which apparently despite your monumental statistics knowledge, you didn't bother to do, you'll see that the Devils' goaltending has been poor throughout the season, not just in blowout losses. And you can't just walk away from blowout losses and blame them entirely on the defense, either.

The Devils have been fortunate in this recent stretch to only have their poor goaltending affect them significantly in one game, but there's no reason why we would expect that to be some sort of trend, or something to count on. The Devils' goaltending is bad, there's no reason for us to expect it to get better, and it's something the team is going to have to deal with.

Edited by Triumph, 12 January 2012 - 02:08 PM.

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#203 ohms law

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Posted 12 January 2012 - 02:13 PM

Right. Sure thing, prof!
:D
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#204 Triumph

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Posted 12 January 2012 - 02:19 PM

Right. Sure thing, prof!
:D


Ah right, so you were just trolling again. Carry on, then.
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#205 Neb00rs

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Posted 12 January 2012 - 02:22 PM

Right. Sure thing, prof!
:D


Wow, this is really confusing. In one post you want to be seen as a serious and deeply analyzing poster. Then when challenged, as will happen, you do something like this...
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#206 Onddeck

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Posted 12 January 2012 - 02:29 PM

the fact that Calgary scored 6 shots on just 14 SOG proves that the problem is not the defense, that should not be a question.

but as for last nights game, which was a good one, it would've been nice to see a regulation win. a win is a win, but we gotta score more goals.

Kovy is lookin really good and I still trust in him. The guy is the quarterback/point guard to our team. he literally controls the tempo. good sh!t :cheers:
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#207 ScoreMoreThan3

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Posted 12 January 2012 - 02:38 PM

What? This is total blather. No one has control over goals against distribution - this is why goal differential tends to be more predictive than a team's record halfway through a season. Teams don't have control over winning or losing one goal games.

If you go back over the entire season, which apparently despite your monumental statistics knowledge, you didn't bother to do, you'll see that the Devils' goaltending has been poor throughout the season, not just in blowout losses. And you can't just walk away from blowout losses and blame them entirely on the defense, either.

The Devils have been fortunate in this recent stretch to only have their poor goaltending affect them significantly in one game, but there's no reason why we would expect that to be some sort of trend, or something to count on. The Devils' goaltending is bad, there's no reason for us to expect it to get better, and it's something the team is going to have to deal with.

The defense and goaltending are both to blame, but I think it's easy to tell during certain games that the goaltending is worse than the defense. I'll admit that I didn't think that was the problem in the beginning of the year but as of right now the D seems to be play a litte better I suppose.
It's weird because even though they gave up 41 shots in the Pens game I just recall them being there a lot when Marty would give up a juicy rebound.
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#208 Onddeck

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Posted 12 January 2012 - 02:41 PM

... and has anyone seen the numbers recently of how many shots our players have blocked?? the numbers are pretty awesome and it goes to say that allowing just 14 SOG the other night was not enough to keep Calgary from somehow scoring 6
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#209 NJDevs4978

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Posted 12 January 2012 - 02:49 PM

the fact that Calgary scored 6 shots on just 14 SOG proves that the problem is not the defense, that should not be a question.

but as for last nights game, which was a good one, it would've been nice to see a regulation win. a win is a win, but we gotta score more goals.

Kovy is lookin really good and I still trust in him. The guy is the quarterback/point guard to our team. he literally controls the tempo. good sh!t :cheers:


No, there have been plenty of nights where the D was the problem too. You can't always go by x number of shots allowed either, I've seen the Devils have several respectable 'shots allowed' games, but in between allowing 25 shots, a lot of them come off of defensive zone turnovers, breakaways, etc.
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#210 ohms law

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Posted 12 January 2012 - 03:00 PM

Ah right, so you were just trolling again. Carry on, then.

Not at all.
Look man, aside from the fact that I didn't mention you specifically (you've put my "trolling" on yourself here), I do respect your opinions both here and elsewhere. It's just the statistical analysis...
Like I said elsewhere I use stats every day, all day. When things like this are said:

I was under the impression that Fenwick has a .62 correlation rate with scoring over infinite sample size.


I mean... geez.
All I can say is please, please pick up a basic statistics book. You won't even need to put that much effort into it really, since yourself and others seem to have the fundamentals down. I'm not trying to put you guys down, honest to god. It's just... when you're all citing stats with things like 62% correlation rates (created with methods that suffer from some serious dependance issues as well)...

Anyway, I'm here to relax and talk about the Devils. I've got actual work to do, otherwise. I applaud efforts to statistically analyze hockey (and sports in general), but it's gotta be done correctly. If me calling people out about the use of bad statistics is really trolling then I don't know what to say. I guess that I could just hide behind my screen and snicker at it, but that doesn't seem fair.
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#211 Ollie McKraut

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Posted 12 January 2012 - 03:11 PM

I don't care how much Kovalchuk hates intermission interviews, he damn well better keep doin em

Because I like seein em
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#212 EdgeControl

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Posted 12 January 2012 - 03:13 PM

Exactly. Thanks for pulling the individual game numbers together like that. The distribution is off, which presents skewed results.
The Devils seasons stats at this point present a pretty classic statistical "lie" right now. Unfortunately we've got a few fellow fans in our midst who apparently have just enough understanding of statistics to be dangerous, and not enough to recognize the impact that the distribution spread can and does have.

LOL, distribution problems?? go post marty's 2011/12 game log here

you think these bad outings are anomalies? really
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#213 aylbert

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Posted 12 January 2012 - 03:16 PM

Not surprisingly, our offense production found in Elias, Kovy, Parise and Henrique etc is driving force when looking back to last season:

January 12, 2011 - 42 GP, 11-29-2, 24 PTS, 79 GF, 132 GA
January 12, 2012 - 43 GP, 24-17-2, 50 PTS, 119 GF, 124 GA

With one additional game played, we have 13 additional wins, 12 less losses, 26 more points, 40 more goals scored with 8 less goals against.

Edited by aylbert, 12 January 2012 - 03:17 PM.

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#214 95Crash

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Posted 12 January 2012 - 03:17 PM

I don't care how much Kovalchuk hates intermission interviews, he damn well better keep doin em

Because I like seein em

All this talk about Kovy's interview in beween periods last night! I had the game on, but didn't pay much attention to it. Now I wish I had.

:doh1:

Does anyone know if that interview is online anywhere?
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#215 EdgeControl

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Posted 12 January 2012 - 03:22 PM

Not surprisingly, our offense production found in Elias, Kovy, Parise and Henrique etc is driving force when looking back to last season:

January 12, 2011 - 42 GP, 11-29-2, 24 PTS, 79 GF, 132 GA
January 12, 2012 - 43 GP, 24-17-2, 50 PTS, 119 GF, 124 GA

With one additional game played, we have 13 additional wins, 12 less losses, 26 more points, 40 more goals scored with 8 less goals against.

Didn't patty get off to a slow start last year?
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#216 Triumph

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Posted 12 January 2012 - 03:28 PM

Not at all.
Look man, aside from the fact that I didn't mention you specifically (you've put my "trolling" on yourself here), I do respect your opinions both here and elsewhere. It's just the statistical analysis...
Like I said elsewhere I use stats every day, all day. When things like this are said:



I mean... geez.
All I can say is please, please pick up a basic statistics book. You won't even need to put that much effort into it really, since yourself and others seem to have the fundamentals down. I'm not trying to put you guys down, honest to god. It's just... when you're all citing stats with things like 62% correlation rates (created with methods that suffer from some serious dependance issues as well)...

Anyway, I'm here to relax and talk about the Devils. I've got actual work to do, otherwise. I applaud efforts to statistically analyze hockey (and sports in general), but it's gotta be done correctly. If me calling people out about the use of bad statistics is really trolling then I don't know what to say. I guess that I could just hide behind my screen and snicker at it, but that doesn't seem fair.


That's a bad use of the word correlation and that's not what he means there. I think what he means there is something akin to this:

http://www.arcticice...portant-thing-a

I can't find the exact article he's citing because I don't remember it and searching for these things is difficult. But somewhere on that site is how much of winning is made up of territorial dominance + chance + goaltending.

Statistical analysis or what have you of sports is naturally going to be uncertain because there are loads of uncertainties. It has to be looked at in that context, and the question that has to be asked is: what's going to be predictive? If it's predictive, how predictive is it? And the truth is, there's not very much that's predictive in hockey. A little, but not a lot. The games still have to be played. Regardless, there are plenty of errors that people make when looking at 'their' statistics versus the newer stats.

I accused you of trolling because I responded to you and you clammed up, as if you had made your case and there was nothing to be said about it. I don't blame you for not defending it - not only is it indefensible, it would take hours just to try to demonstrate what you claimed - but if you're going to say that while taking what I am going to have to perceive as potshots at me, then not say anything when I respond, that sounds a lot like trolling.
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#217 aylbert

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Posted 12 January 2012 - 03:29 PM

Didn't patty get off to a slow start last year?


Not really... I think he was the only consisent player last year. He won team MVP as well.

January 12, 2011: 41 GP, 9G, 21A, 30PTS, -11
2010-11 Season: 81 GP, 21 G, 41A, 62PTS, -4

January 12, 2012: 42 GP, 15G, 25A, 40PTS, -4

Edited by aylbert, 12 January 2012 - 03:29 PM.

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#218 Chuck the Duck

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Posted 12 January 2012 - 03:40 PM

Didn't patty get off to a slow start last year?


Who didn't?
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#219 ohms law

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Posted 12 January 2012 - 03:53 PM

LOL, distribution problems?? go post marty's 2011/12 game log here

you think these bad outings are anomalies? really

I'm perfectly willing to change my mind on this. However, show me something that is actually convincing.
Marty isn't the same as he used to be obviously, but...
meh, whatever. I got real work to do.
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#220 Colorado Rockies 1976

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Posted 12 January 2012 - 03:57 PM

Nice post and it's nice to see someone who is generally anti-Chuk to at least acknowledge it when Kovy is playing well...very well.


I acknowledged his strong second half last season too as it happened, multiple times.

I've never been "anti-Chuk"...I've just never been a Kovalchuk fanboy. I didn't want him back based off what I saw when he first got here, but I'll always root for him to succeed as long as he wears the red & black. What Devil fan would want him to suck or struggle?
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