234 replies to this topic

[ohms law]

Statistical analysis or what have you of sports is naturally going to be uncertain because there are loads of uncertainties. It has to be looked at in that context, and the question that has to be asked is: what's going to be predictive? If it's predictive, how predictive is it? And the truth is, there's not very much that's predictive in hockey. A little, but not a lot. The games still have to be played. Regardless, there are plenty of errors that people make when looking at 'their' statistics versus the newer stats.

Exactly my point. Come up with some hockey stats that predict anything at all and I'll definitely listen. Currently, the vast majority of stats talked about in hockey are more deceptive than they are helpful. No stats at all are better than bad statistics. Just about every stats book in the world that's been written since the 80's devotes entire chapters to that point.

Hockey is different from even basketball, in terms of statistical analysis. There's so little that is discreet that it'll take some extraordinary evidence to support just about any statistical claim. The failure of most amateur hockey statisticians to even try to come up with even average evidence for their claims make hockey statistics a running joke.

[Quinn01]

I acknowledged his strong second half last season too as it happened, multiple times.

I've never been "anti-Chuk"...I've just never been a Kovalchuk fanboy. I didn't want him back based off what I saw when he first got here, but I'll always root for him to succeed as long as he wears the red & black. What Devil fan would want him to suck or struggle?

Thats exactly how I feel. I really want him to do well, for the teams sake.

[ohms law]

Yea, same here.

[EdgeControl]

Wow, this is really confusing. In one post you want to be seen as a serious and deeply analyzing poster. Then when challenged, as will happen, you do something like this...

AND, in his post he uses an eight game sampling to try and prove a point, then when it's refuted, he claims hockey stats are laughable

yes very confusing

if anything, its marty's few outstanding games which are skewing the norm!

Edited by EdgeControl, 12 January 2012 - 04:12 PM.

[Triumph]

Exactly my point. Come up with some hockey stats that predict anything at all and I'll definitely listen. Currently, the vast majority of stats talked about in hockey are more deceptive than they are helpful. No stats at all are better than bad statistics. Just about every stats book in the world that's been written since the 80's devotes entire chapters to that point.

Hockey is different from even basketball, in terms of statistical analysis. There's so little that is discreet that it'll take some extraordinary evidence to support just about any statistical claim. The failure of most amateur hockey statisticians to even try to come up with even average evidence for their claims make hockey statistics a running joke.

Yes, they're a running joke because you say they are. I assume you mean 'discrete'.

Anyway, there are stats that predict 'something'. It's just that the games have to be played. In basketball, there's what, 80 scoring plays a night? In hockey there's 5. The NBA season is much 'longer' than the NHL season despite being an equal amount of games and less actual time because of the nature of NBA scoring. In the NBA, a team's record says a lot about how good they are, but in the NHL, it says a lot less. Hence the problem is compounded - since we can't say all that much about games in the past, it's difficult to say things about games in the future. But there's still some knowledge that can be gleaned from there.

[EdgeControl]

Not really... I think he was the only consisent player last year. He won team MVP as well.

January 12, 2011: 41 GP, 9G, 21A, 30PTS, -11
2010-11 Season: 81 GP, 21 G, 41A, 62PTS, -4

January 12, 2012: 42 GP, 15G, 25A, 40PTS, -4

he had 2 goals in his first 20 games, then got hot

[aylbert]

he had 2 goals in his first 20 games, then got hot

I guess... but it's not like he had a great year offensively overall. Just the best of the worst.

Edited by aylbert, 12 January 2012 - 04:49 PM.

[lazer]

i was looking at the first half and came up with wins/losses vs. teams that are currently in/out

basically most of our SO wins were against teams who were out

our record vs. teams who are in is below .500

im not saying anything here, i did compare the rags 1st half and i have had a basic stat class



i didnt count up all of the 3rd period chernobyls; this to me is pretty important to figure out why...

hockey doesnt lend it self to stats for me also because of the quick play, tom renney mentioned how adam is +9 dont mean nothing to me hes a rookie on a roll

Edited by lazer, 12 January 2012 - 05:28 PM.

[njdevsftw]

Screw your stats. Kovy is, and has always been, a hockey-MONSTER! Failure to recognize this comes from physical blindness, or mental illness!

[Neb00rs]

I acknowledged his strong second half last season too as it happened, multiple times.

I've never been "anti-Chuk"...I've just never been a Kovalchuk fanboy. I didn't want him back based off what I saw when he first got here, but I'll always root for him to succeed as long as he wears the red & black. What Devil fan would want him to suck or struggle?

I wasn't accusing you personally of anything CR. Its just the hate is out for Kovy all the time and everyone who bashed him and said he's a failure and that we need to get rid of him and that we made a great mistake, are nowhere to be seen now...or at least they avoid the subject. I thought it was stand up that you took the time to point out his current success when you could have denied or avoided it.

I also definitely think that while one side of the Kovy hating Dev fans want Kovy to succeed, they also take pleasure in seeing him fail so they can be "right" and fly on to the boards and let everyone know.

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

I wasn't accusing you personally of anything CR. Its just the hate is out for Kovy all the time and everyone who bashed him and said he's a failure and that we need to get rid of him and that we made a great mistake, are nowhere to be seen now...or at least they avoid the subject. I thought it was stand up that you took the time to point out his current success when you could have denied or avoided it.

I also definitely think that while one side of the Kovy hating Dev fans want Kovy to succeed, they also take pleasure in seeing him fail so they can be "right" and fly on to the boards and let everyone know.

I'll always take being wrong about a player I had reservations over, over being right and watching the Devils suffer for it. We still won't whether Kovy was the right move for quite a while, really, but clearly he's looking more and more like what everyone was hoping for when he re-signed. Hard not to feel optimistic.

Tri said it well, in that we are now seeing the player the Devils had in mind when they re-signed him. His first season, despite the PPG average, he never looked comfortable or seemed to fit in. We know how rough the first half of last season was for him. He was better in the second half, and I applaud Lemaire for trying to teach him the finer points of the game (and Kovy for being receptive), to get him be a better all-around player, but even though he WAS better in the second half, he still didn't seem that comfortable...something still felt like it was missing. And though some fans want to make it sound like the Devils were in a playoff race, and that Kovy was trying to will them in, that's not really true...last season's second half, fun as it was, was effectively garbage time, and the Devils never pulled closer than six points back, with a lot of teams in the mix. He's now producing when it's really needed.

I think, for the first time, we are truly seeing the Kovy that played for Atlanta, with no adjustment issues lingering. And like I said, that means we'll have to deal with WTF moments, or series of WTF moments from time-to-time. But there's a big difference between putting up 60-70 points and having to deal with that, as opposed to 80-90...those WTF moments get easier to stomach.

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976, 13 January 2012 - 07:18 AM.

[Neb00rs]

I'll always take being wrong about a player I had reservations over, over being right and watching the Devils suffer for it. We still won't whether Kovy was the right move for quite a while, really, but clearly he's looking more and more like what everyone was hoping for when he re-signed. Hard not to feel optimistic.

Tri said it well, in that we are now seeing the player the Devils had in mind when they re-signed him. His first season, despite the PPG average, he never looked comfortable or seemed to fit in. We know how rough the first half of last season was for him. He was better in the second half, and I applaud Lemaire for trying to teach him the finer points of the game (and Kovy for being receptive), to get him be a better all-around player, but even though he WAS better in the second half, he still didn't seem that comfortable...something still felt like it was missing. And though some fans want to make it sound like the Devils were in a playoff race, and that Kovy was trying to will them in, that's not really true...last season's second half, fun as it was, was effectively garbage time, and the Devils never pulled closer than six points back, with a lot of teams in the mix. He's now producing when it's really needed.

I think, for the first time, we are truly seeing the Kovy that played for Atlanta, with no adjustment issues lingering. And like I said, that means we'll have to deal with WTF moments, or series of WTF moments from time-to-time. But there's a big difference between putting up 60-70 points and having to deal with that, as opposed to 80-90...those WTF moments get easier to stomach.

No we don't know if he is the right move for maybe years. Nor am I saying he is always going to play like this. This may be a hot streak he falls from but I hope not. I'm just applying my comments to his good play right now and not making more out of it than it is. WTF moments will be there yes...but they have certainly been hard to come by since he shot a puck into our net.

[ohms law]

For what it's worth, he's always been hot or cold from what I can remember. I'm sure that this is a hot streak, but that's what you get with Kovalchuk.
He may be a 50 goal scorer, but he's certainly never scored goals in every other game. It's always been groups of 2 goal games followed by droughts.

[ScoreMoreThan3]

For what it's worth, he's always been hot or cold from what I can remember. I'm sure that this is a hot streak, but that's what you get with Kovalchuk.
He may be a 50 goal scorer, but he's certainly never scored goals in every other game. It's always been groups of 2 goal games followed by droughts.

I think Kovy has only had 1 2 goal game so far this season and it was due to an ENG. I see that changing soon though. He's feeling it now.

[Neb00rs]

For what it's worth, he's always been hot or cold from what I can remember. I'm sure that this is a hot streak, but that's what you get with Kovalchuk.
He may be a 50 goal scorer, but he's certainly never scored goals in every other game. It's always been groups of 2 goal games followed by droughts.

This is not true at all. Like any player he had droughts and streaks on the Thrashers and he had his share of 2 goal games but for the most part he has been the type of player to score that one big goal. Throughout his career he has been a consistent goal scorer throughout the entire season.