1023 replies to this topic

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

Well Hundley is absolutely better if he hits anything close to his 2009-2011 numbers, you can't deny that. Obviously the whole point of him being available would be because of a very down year and his contract. You can't ignore 2012, but do keep in mind it's like 220 PA; it's not "nothing" but it's still prone to plenty of variance. Case in point: Albert Pujols had a .697 OPS over his first 221 PA this season.

I don't expect anything to happen though. I still think they are committed to giving Thole one more shot.

His 2009-11 numbers aren't too bad...but why is he only playing in about half his team's games from season to season? Is he being platooned, benched, is he injury-prone? The contract is probably what scares me the most...like you said, if he has a repeat of 2011 that contract becomes dead money for a team that can't afford to carry much in the way of dead money.

But yeah, probably status quo at the catcher position anyway. Is what it is. Not easy when one has memories of Mike Piazza and Gary Carter...Hundley had some good offensive seasons as well. but not like those guys are easy to come by.

[nmigliore]

Injuries have mostly hurt Nick Hundley's playing time:

2009: 50 games missed with fractured wrist.
2011: 31 games missed with abdomen strain, 32 games missed with with elbow surgery (that's 63 games right there).

He didn't have any significant injuries in 2010, he and Torrealba just split the playing time (almost) 50/50 behind the plate. This year he lost playing time due to his awful play, a month+ stint in the minors, and most recently, a knee contusion that has him currently on the DL.

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

Injuries have mostly hurt Nick Hundley's playing time:

2009: 50 games missed with fractured wrist.
2011: 31 games missed with abdomen strain, 32 games missed with with elbow surgery (that's 63 games right there).

He didn't have any significant injuries in 2010, he and Torrealba just split the playing time (almost) 50/50 behind the plate. This year he lost playing time due to his awful play, a month+ stint in the minors, and most recently, a knee contusion that has him currently on the DL.

So he's injury-prone AND playing a position that's tough on the body...yikes...

['7']

Chris Young should not be on this team next year

[nmigliore]

I can't imagine he will be. The 2013 rotation projects to be:

Dickey
Niese
Gee
Harvey
Santana

Gee seems to be progressing very well so there shouldn't be any issues there. Obviously you can't count on Santana, but backing him (as depth) is Hefner, a perfectly capable 6th starter/swingman, and Collin McHugh, who could probably stick as a back-end starter right away. They'll probably still bring in a AAA arm with past ML experience too.

[nmigliore]

Heck of a game by Shoppach tonight!

['7']

credit where credit is due...the normally horrific bullpen held this game together and allowed the mets o to get back in it.

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

Didn't watch this one after the 4th inning or so, but yeah, nice to see the bats come to life a little. Parnell has been the winning pitcher the last two games.

Of course, a major decision is coming up for the Mets' brass: what to do with David Wright. It seems to boil down to three choices:

1) Sign him this off-season before he becomes a free agent after next season.
2) Keep him for next year but wait until later to sign him (if they go this route, they will likely be stuck waiting until the exclusive negotiating period or when anyone can sign him).
3) Trade him for whatever prospects you can get, anytime between the offseason and next season's trading deadline.

The several million dollar question...what is he worth? Joe and Evan make it sound like the Mets need to sign him no matter what, even if it's for well over $100 million. I don't think I agree with that, for a number of reasons:

1) He's not a strong defensive player.

2) His last four seasons, compared to the seasons that came before it, have been a mixed bag. His strikeouts are up and his power has been down, and he's been prone to prolonged funks. This season is not ending on a good note either...though he's currently on pace to finish with a BB-to-K ratio similar to 2007 and 2008 (both solid seasons), his strikeouts have gone up considerably in the second half. Overall, his second half has been similar to last season, when he turned in his weakest year in the majors. So what it comes down to: Do the last four years of his career warrant the superstar dollars that he will likely think he is worth?

3) I think he definitely cares deeply about helping the Mets, and maybe this is fanspeak, but David's never really seemed like a true leader in the lockerroom, or a guy who inspires teammates. If that's not something that comes naturally to him, maybe it's unfair to ask that of him, but he's going to get huge money, and if the Mets are the team who gives it to him, chances are they aren't going to have a lot of it to go around...if they keep Wright, clearly the Mets believe he's the cornerstone (with the hope that Ike can be cornerstone 1A), and they'll try to build around him with their young pitching, salary-controlled prospects, and some mid-level contracts. But should Wright really be considered a cornerstone player? I know the overall career numbers are strong, as are his overall numbers this season, but I don't know if Wright should be considered "the guy" in the 5+ years to come, based on the last four years.

Anyway, I'm not dead-set against bringing Wright back, just not sure how long I would do it for, and for how much money. In a perfect world, I'd go 5 years and $80 million (even those numbers make me nervous), but it's hard to believe that he won't get more on both counts from someone, and if the Mets offered that, no way Wright takes that, no matter how much he loves being a Met. So at this point, I'm leaning towards trading him in the offseason...if the offers aren't strong, the Mets could hope he has a big first half next year, and then hope some would-be contender thinks he could be the difference, but that's risky...teams will know the Mets are trying to unload him at that point, and they'll try to buy low. I think his value may be highest after this season, especially if a big September puffs his season numbers up a bit.

So what do fellow Met fans think? Sign him to top dollar ($100 million or more)? Trade him? Keep him and either try to trade him next season or take your chances and try to sign him after next season?

['7']

Right now I'm leaning no to trading David Wright...it's about 60-40 no in my mind

However, if it is to be done then it has to be done this offseason and the centerpiece to the deal MUST be a top pitching prospect who's fairly close to major league ready or has already had a cup of coffee...somebody in the mold of Harvey. I would also probably want a good young catching prospect that can hit for power (Derek Norris type) but not many teams have those. Would also like a decent, major league reliever. Could throw Duda into the deal and maybe we can get back a project minor league outfielder. If we can get a 3b bat back in the deal...all the better

Let's use Arizona as an example, a trade can look like

David Wright
Lucas Duda
Bobby Parnell
Den Dekker

for

Tyler Skaggs SP
Matt Davidson 3B
Chris Young OF
Bullpen Prospect

We get another front line starting pitcher, we get Wrights future replacement, and Chris Young who is a power hitting OF who may need a change of scenery...

They get one of the top hitters in the game, a power hitting project in Duda, Parnell who they'll probably think will bolster their bullpen until he starts imploding, and a decent outfield prospect.

Edited by '7', 29 August 2012 - 08:56 AM.

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

Not sure why the D'backs would want Duda.

Parnell is probably polarizing to GMs...I'm sure some GMs see the arm and the Ks and think their franchise is the one that can get him to put it all together, while others see him as a guy who will always be an inconsistent enigma. But there are GMs who will definitely take a chance on him...just like Kyle Farnsworth, he'll get lots of chances.

I'm guessing if the D'backs ever made a deal like that, they'd want to get Wright signed long-term or they wouldn't bother.

Davidson scares me coming back...the guy strikes out a lot and doesn't hit for a terribly high average, but puts up decent OB%+slg numbers. Also makes a lot of errors...28 of them this season. Not sure if he's going to be much more than an average all-around third baseman if he makes it.

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976, 29 August 2012 - 08:59 AM.

['7']

Duda can go to the minors for them, work on his game in left, and be an insurance policy in case Kubel leaves after 2013.

Anyway, if we end up trading Wright, I want to make sure it leaves us with not just good, but DOMINANT starting pitching for a decade.

Edited by '7', 29 August 2012 - 09:11 AM.

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

Duda can go to the minors for them, work on his game in left, and be an insurance policy in case Kubel leaves after 2013.

Anyway, if we end up trading Wright, I want to make sure it leaves us with not just good, but DOMINANT starting pitching for a decade.

Sure, who wouldn't want dominant starting pitching? But teams don't trade those guys for just anybody...it was pretty amazing that the Mets snagged Wheeler for Beltran. If I'm the D'backs, I'm not giving up one of my top pitching prospects unless I'm SURE Wright can be a major contributor for at LEAST five seasons. A deal like that could be a disaster otherwise.

That being said, I understood why the Giants did what they did...Beltran was a perfect fit for what they needed at the time, and they didn't have to give up anything off their major-league roster to do it. Unfortunately for them, Beltran didn't really hit for them until it was too late, but the deal, from a "go for it" standpoint, made perfect sense.

Do you really think Duda is going to improve that much in the field? How much better do inherently bad defensive players ever really get, even if they try to improve. You're basically trying to polish a bit of a turd and hope to fool the D'backs into thinking they're getting a guy who can help them down the line. Like I've said, if Duda's one of your starting three outfielders, either you're team's not very good, or he's a stopgap until you can find something better.

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976, 29 August 2012 - 09:27 AM.

[nmigliore]

All I'm going to say on this topic is that Wright will certainly top $100M, so anything lower than that is not worth discussing. If he were to hit free agency this winter, hypothetically, he'd be looking at 6/130 or 7/145 as fair market value, maybe more.

['7']

Sure, who wouldn't want dominant starting pitching? But teams don't trade those guys for just anybody...it was pretty amazing that the Mets snagged Wheeler for Beltran. If I'm the D'backs, I'm not giving up one of my top pitching prospects unless I'm SURE Wright can be a major contributor for at LEAST five seasons. A deal like that could be a disaster otherwise.

That being said, I understood why the Giants did what they did...Beltran was a perfect fit for what they needed at the time, and they didn't have to give up anything off their major-league roster to do it. Unfortunately for them, Beltran didn't really hit for them until it was too late, but the deal, from a "go for it" standpoint, made perfect sense.

Do you really think Duda is going to improve that much in the field? How much better do inherently bad defensive players ever really get, even if they try to improve. You're basically trying to polish a bit of a turd and hope to fool the D'backs into thinking they're getting a guy who can help them down the line. Like I've said, if Duda's one of your starting three outfielders, either you're team's not very good, or he's a stopgap until you can find something better.

well here's the thing. The Dbacks have two. Bauer and Skaggs. It's alot easier to trade one young stud pitcher for a top bat when you have another in your back pocket. Besides Wright is an elite hitter with a year left on his contract...so I want to be greedy here.

Duda would be a project for them, but the guy does have power, does get on base...and was pretty good for us last year and 1/2 of this year. He's not a major player in this deal anyway. Maybe more of a throw in from us since it's starting to look out of place here. He can play the corners, albeit poorly, he can play 1b, he can pinch hit. Lefty power bats off the bench can last a long time in this league. Look at Matt Stairs

We give 'em Wright and Arizona's heart of the order next year is Wright/Montero/Upton/Hill/Goldschmidt/Kubel. That's a damn good lineup.

[NJDevs4978]

All I'm going to say on this topic is that Wright will certainly top $100M, so anything lower than that is not worth discussing. If he were to hit free agency this winter, hypothetically, he'd be looking at 6/130 or 7/145 as fair market value, maybe more.

If he wants that much, might as well trade him now. 6-102 would be about my limit.

[nmigliore]

If he wants that much, might as well trade him now. 6-102 would be about my limit.

He has less leverage this winter since he's under control for one more year before hitting free agency, so the Mets should be able to get him for something lower than that.

I'm still unsure about what my max would be. If we rip up the 2013 option for the new contract, probably 6/115 or a little more.

Edited by nmigliore, 29 August 2012 - 09:59 AM.

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

All I'm going to say on this topic is that Wright will certainly top $100M, so anything lower than that is not worth discussing. If he were to hit free agency this winter, hypothetically, he'd be looking at 6/130 or 7/145 as fair market value, maybe more.

Well, yeah, duh, we know he's pretty much certain to get $100 million, probably more...I know that 5 years and $80 million won't possibly happen. Which is why I'm leaning towards trading him...let someone else (over)pay him for what he's already done. Look, he's not even 30 yet, he could still turn in 4-5 more big seasons and make the Mets look foolish, can't rule that out, but for a team that doesn't look to have a lot to spend in the next few years...giving Wright this kind of money is extremely risky...too much for my blood.

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

well here's the thing. The Dbacks have two. Bauer and Skaggs. It's alot easier to trade one young stud pitcher for a top bat when you have another in your back pocket. Besides Wright is an elite hitter with a year left on his contract...so I want to be greedy here.

Duda would be a project for them, but the guy does have power, does get on base...and was pretty good for us last year and 1/2 of this year. He's not a major player in this deal anyway. Maybe more of a throw in from us since it's starting to look out of place here. He can play the corners, albeit poorly, he can play 1b, he can pinch hit. Lefty power bats off the bench can last a long time in this league. Look at Matt Stairs

We give 'em Wright and Arizona's heart of the order next year is Wright/Montero/Upton/Hill/Goldschmidt/Kubel. That's a damn good lineup.

Hear what you're saying, but I hate giving those guys up...you can never have too many. Remember Generation K? As three guys who were expected to be good starters, one of them turned out to be a good closer. If anything, if I'm the D'backs I'm hoping BOTH of those guys might be in my rotation someday. Young guys who can pitch AND who don't cost much initially...can't value them enough.

[nmigliore]

...but for a team that doesn't look to have a lot to spend in the next few years...

Next few years? Even assuming the Wilpons keep the payroll around $100M, the Mets have very, very little payroll commitments for 2014 and beyond. Santana, Bay, and Wright hitting free agency opens up a huge wad of money.

Edited by nmigliore, 29 August 2012 - 10:11 AM.

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

If he wants that much, might as well trade him now. 6-102 would be about my limit.

I'm not even that comfortable with that, but I could probably stomach it. A lot of pressure is going to come with that deal.

Next few years? More like just 2013. Even assuming the Wilpons keep the payroll around $100M, the Mets have very, very little payroll commitments for 2014 and beyond. Santana, Bay, and Wright hitting free agency opens up a huge wad of money.

Good point, and a fair one. I guess it depends if they keep the payroll around $100M. They may not even need to, if they can get contributions from within.