1023 replies to this topic

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

The problem with Wright's first half and where I do agree with CR is it's an anomaly compared to what he's done the last few years. Wright hasn't been a truly elite player (.300-30-100) since 2008. 2009 and 2011 were awful by his earlier standards, 2010 was okay, this year he's been a total Jekyll and Hyde act.

Unfortunately he is going to get paid by someone for his 2004-08 stats more than his last four years. I'd still rather it be us as long as it's not a ridiculous overpayment, because the Mets have taken enough hits as a franchise the last few years as it is. Losing the two faces of the franchise in back to back offseasons would be a total PR disaster, although if you were able to get enough in a trade for Wright maybe you could sell it since the Mets have so many needs elsewhere.

But are Reyes and Wright necessarily the guys you want to be the faces of your franchise? They're both known as guys who have put up some good to very good numbers though the years, but I don't think of either guy as a winner, or terribly great clutch performers. Francesca can come off as a major blowhard at times, but last year when he went ballistic about Reyes' and Wright's repeated failures in the clutch...it's like I've always said, he and others who share his viewpoint didn't pull that observation out of thin air.

To me, I think Wright has had his chances here, and it feels more and more like it's time to move on...especially since the Mets are going to pay more than they ever have for his services, and likely get less in return than they ever have from him.

[nmigliore]

By the way, Niese set a career-high in IP last night and now boasts a 4.15 K/BB and 3.07 ERA in the 2nd half, both of which are substantially better than his 1st half splits. I think the "Niese falls apart in the 2nd half" meme can go away now.

Edited by nmigliore, 15 September 2012 - 12:41 PM.

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

Really too bad the Mets offense disappeared...Niese deserves better than 11-9. He had a terrific season...one that was a leap forward in every possible way. A great positive.

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

Re, Ike: I don't mean to be snarky and say 'I told you so', but, yeah - he's continued to show this year has been more about bad luck on balls in play rather than an eroding of skill(s).

Career rates: 11.2 BB%, 23.1 K%, .201 ISO, .293 BABIP
2012 rates: 10.3 BB%, 23.9 K%, .219 ISO, .244 BABIP

Everything is the same, practically. The biggest separation is in BABIP, which he has the least amount of control over.

I have plenty of confidence in Ike bouncing back in 2013.

Who here said his skills were eroding? I've been pointing out that his numbers have been heading in the right direction for a while now, especially the BB-to-K ratio, which was God-awful for quite a while this season. He's only hitting .176 for September, but has put up a .378 OB% this month, and since August 1, has walked 23 times and struck out 26.

Yeah, all signs point to him having a much better year overall than this one...I'd be stunned if he hit in the .220s again.

[nmigliore]

I didn't mean to insinuate you or anyone else said he showed an erosion of talent. I was just referring to a post I made awhile ago that showed Ike's down 2012 was more about bad luck on balls in play (BABIP) rather than some sort of decline in talent, regardless of whether or not anyone believed Ike's poor 2012 had more to do with the latter or not.

It was kind of a self pat on the back (since I identified BABIP as the cause in that older post) and since it should be even more clear now that Ike's down 2012 really was about BABIP and not much else (see the post above comparing his 2012 peripherals and career peripherals).

Edited by nmigliore, 15 September 2012 - 04:18 PM.

['7']

Well...so much for Mejia as a starter

[NJDevs4978]

I kinda think we ruined Mejia already by having him bounce back and forth between the pen and starting randomly, the way the Yankees did Joba. Not to mention bringing him up too soon two years ago.

Edited by NJDevs4978, 15 September 2012 - 09:07 PM.

[nmigliore]

Mejia's stuff is fine, he just can't miss bats. He didn't in AAA this year (4.8 K/9) and he couldn't even induce one swinging strike tonight. For a guy with mediocre control, that's not good.

I'm really not sure what happens with him; even though the stuff is there I think you can legitimately argue he may not even pan out as a good reliever.

Edited by nmigliore, 15 September 2012 - 09:26 PM.

[nmigliore]

On the bright side, Ike is 3-for-4 with a walk and just launched his 27th homer. Certainly has a shot at 30.

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

I didn't mean to insinuate you or anyone else said he showed an erosion of talent. I was just referring to a post I made awhile ago that showed Ike's down 2012 was more about bad luck on balls in play (BABIP) rather than some sort of decline in talent, regardless of whether or not anyone believed Ike's poor 2012 had more to do with the latter or not.

It was kind of a self pat on the back (since I identified BABIP as the cause in that older post) and since it should be even more clear now that Ike's down 2012 really was about BABIP and not much else (see the post above comparing his 2012 peripherals and career peripherals).

But I think one thing that can't be ignored is that he's becoming a better hitter, even if it's not being reflected in his BA...he's been stuck in the .220s for almost a month now. It's pretty impressive that he's fashioned a .389 OB% for September with a .217 BA. I hear what you're saying about the BABIP and bad luck, but you have to admit that Ike looks like a much better hitter now than he was the first few months of the season overall...the BB-to-K ratios are like night and day. He's improved immensely in that regard.

I kind of dismissed Ike's BABIP only because it seemed like a relatively small sample at the time, but if he that number improves (I think it was about 50 points below his career figure coming into this season), he could have a monster year next season...I could see him hitting in the .270s with an OB% approaching .390, with a very good BB-to-K ratio (something like 75-to-100), maybe 35 HRs...the kind of numbers that make it a lot easier to wave bye-bye to David Wright.

[nmigliore]

That's way too optimistic on Ike - .390 OBP; whoa? He'd need to hit near .300 to sniff an OBP in that area. Ike still strikes out quite a bit, and while it's not an alarming strikeout rate, it's still one that will hold him back from hitting much better than the .260's without some luck. I'm assuming you're optimistic based on his walk and strikeout rates since August, but keep in mind the sample size is really small; it would be awesome if he proved this was real improvement and not just some small sample size noise, but I wouldn't bet on it - career rates are safer due to the reliability in sample size (you're talking about 154 PA and 35 games compared to 1278 PA and 323 games).

Even 35 HR is a bit of a stretch, I think. It's been shown that a player's power tends to peak early, usually in their age-25 season, which is the season Ike is in now; in other words, don't be stunned if his power takes a step back next year and he's more in the 25 HR range than 30+.

I think his best case scenario next year is something like .265/.355/.480 with 30 HR.

Edited by nmigliore, 17 September 2012 - 08:37 AM.

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

That's way too optimistic on Ike - .390 OBP; whoa? He'd need to hit near .300 to sniff an OBP in that area. Ike still strikes out quite a bit, and while it's not an alarming strikeout rate, it's still one that will hold him back from hitting much better than the .260's without some luck. I'm assuming you're optimistic based on his walk and strikeout rates since August, but keep in mind the sample size is really small; it would be awesome if he proved this was real improvement and not just some small sample size noise, but I wouldn't bet on it - career rates are safer due to the reliability in sample size (you're talking about 154 PA and 35 games compared to 1278 PA and 323 games).

Even 35 HR is a bit of a stretch, I think. It's been shown that a player's power tends to peak early, usually in their age-25 season, which is the season Ike is in now; in other words, don't be stunned if his power takes a step back next year and he's more in the 25 HR range than 30+.

I think his best case scenario next year is something like .265/.355/.480 with 30 HR.

Might as well be optimistic. And yeah, I know it is a small sample size, and that the improved BB/K ratio could turn out to be the numbers evening out over the course of a season more than Ike improving so drastically...guess I'm just hoping for something big...

['7']

Dickey pitched well again, but the entire franchise around him has quit.

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

Dickey pitched well again, but the entire franchise around him has quit.

Sure feels that way sometimes.

Starting to wonder if Collins takes the fall for this, though he really didn't have very much to work with.

Miami may be in last place, but Reyes has been pretty good for them...his numbers are pretty much right in line with his career averages (though his OB% is his second-lowest of the past seven years). I think Miami signed him hoping for the .337 BA and .384 OB% he put up last season, but he definitely hasn't been a bust. Mets still made the right move in not bringing him back...with his injury history the past three seasons before this one, they couldn't risk it.

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976, 18 September 2012 - 07:00 AM.

[nmigliore]

Yeah no chance Reyes was repeating last year's offensive numbers, but he was still going to be really good and earn his paycheck if he stood healthy. So far he has.

It was still too risky for the Mets. I would have only been for it if I believed they'd contend right away.

Edited by nmigliore, 18 September 2012 - 08:57 AM.

[nmigliore]

As expected, Mets agree to a 2-year PDC with the Las Vegas 51's, making them their AAA affiliate:

The Las Vegas 51s professional baseball team of the Pacific Coast League (PCL) announced today they have signed a "new" two-year Player Development Contract (PDC) with the New York Mets, member of the National League East.

The two-year PDC with the Mets will run through the 2014 season. Las Vegas just completed its 30th season in the Silver State and the fourth season as the Triple-A affiliate of the Toronto Blue Jays (2009-12). The Blue Jays are expected to announce a two-year PDC with the Triple-A Buffalo Bisons of the International League. The New York Mets spent the last four seasons in Triple-A Buffalo (2009-12).

"We are familiar with many of the front office personnel with the Mets," 51s Executive Director Don Logan said. "I've known Sandy Alderson (Mets GM) for 20 years to go along with J.P. Ricciardi (Special Assistant to the GM), Paul DePodesta (VP, Player Development & Scouting), Dick Scott (Minor League Field Coordinator) and Terry Collins (Manager). These individuals are all very familiar with Las Vegas from the time they spent here with other organizations. We are excited to welcome the Mets as our new Triple-A affiliate."

http://www.milb.com/...t=.jsp&sid=t400

Edited by nmigliore, 18 September 2012 - 08:19 PM.

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

As expected, Mets agree to a 2-year PDC with the Las Vegas 51's, making them their AAA affiliate:



http://www.milb.com/...t=.jsp&sid=t400

Not great news for Met fans. Here come bloated hitting numbers.

[nmigliore]

Not great news for Met fans. Here come bloated hitting numbers.

And fans asking, "what's wrong with Zack Wheeler?" when his ERA is bloated.

[Devils Pride 26]

What's the problem with LV? Like Colorado, the altitude? Or is it a small park? No idea

[nmigliore]

What's the problem with LV? Like Colorado, the altitude? Or is it a small park? No idea

It's 2,500 miles away from Citi Field, for one. Cashman Field, their home stadium, is really out-dated too:

The 51s play in 29-year-old Cashman Field, which lacks many of the amenities found at newer ballparks, like indoor batting cages and spacious clubhouses. And the teams attempts to replace the ballpark have been slowed by the financial recession that has hit the city hard. Ownership's agreement in principle to sell the franchise to a joint venture between the Howard Hughes Corp. and attorney Steven Mack could provide hope for a new ballpark, but that sale has been delayed by negotiations with the city over the lease at Cashman Field.

-Baseball America

The other issue isn't necessarily that it's Las Vegas but that it's in the Pacific Coast League, which is an offense-heavy league, leading to bloated numbers across the board. The silver lining about Las Vegas is that it's not ridiculously-offensive driven like Albuquerque, Colorado Springs, and Reno are, at least.

Overall it's just not a good site, especially for an east coast team, to have your AAA at. I'm fairly certain the Mets will be looking to bolt once their PDC expires after 2014.

Edited by nmigliore, 19 September 2012 - 10:32 AM.