1023 replies to this topic

[nmigliore]

Wow, pretty big news: The Mets and Jason Bay have agreed to part ways, making him a free agent.

I figured the Mets were perhaps going to save money on this but Jon Heyman says they are paying him what he was owed.

Edited by nmigliore, 07 November 2012 - 01:57 PM.

[nmigliore]

Joel Sherman also confirmed the Mets are paying Bay fully what he's owed. However, they are deferring some portion of the money he was set to be paid in 2013, which creates a little more flexibility for this offseason.

Edit: Eno Sarris, who is a well-respected writer for Fangraphs and Amazin' Avenue (a Mets blog), thinks if the Mets deferred all or a significant portion of Bay's salary then that could open an additional $10-15M to spend right now.

Edit 2: Joel Sherman agrees:

Joel Sherman ‏@Joelsherman1
#Mets say wouldn't have done Bay buyout if didn't give ability to spend more in '13, would just have tried again with Bay if that were case

Edited by nmigliore, 07 November 2012 - 02:46 PM.

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

Joel Sherman also confirmed the Mets are paying Bay fully what he's owed. However, they are deferring some portion of the money he was set to be paid in 2013, which creates a little more flexibility for this offseason.

Edit: Eno Sarris, who is a well-respected writer for Fangraphs and Amazin' Avenue (a Mets blog), thinks if the Mets deferred all or a significant portion of Bay's salary then that could open an additional $10-15M to spend right now.

Edit 2: Joel Sherman agrees:

Joel Sherman ‏@Joelsherman1
#Mets say wouldn't have done Bay buyout if didn't give ability to spend more in '13, would just have tried again with Bay if that were case

Ballsy move by the Mets...even though we wouldn't have liked it, I could understand if they wanted to give Bay one last chance...that's a lot of money the Mets are eating...the Yankees can eat that kind of cash without blinking, but that is not easy for the Mets. In a way I feel bad for Bay...he never struck me as a malingerer or a bad guy. I think he very much cared and wanted to succeed here. Just one of those situations where everything didn't work out...whenever I'm flipping around on the TV and I see Moneyball and Billy Beane failing as a professional baseball player, I think of Jason Bay as a Met.

[nmigliore]

Although they would've had to pay him the money either way, this is really great news. It not only opens up a roster spot (and eliminates any potential starting Bay hoopla) but the deferrals also could give the team some significant money to play with for 2013. Although the current outlook of next season isn't pretty, they could add a couple of mid-tier outfielders (or even target someone like Justin Upton via trade) and have a puncher's chance at a wild card spot; the starting pitching staff certainly has the upside to lead them. That is, of course, if they do not trade Wright or Dickey, which very well may happen yet.

Edited by nmigliore, 07 November 2012 - 02:59 PM.

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

Although they would've had to pay him the money either way, this is really great news. It not only opens up a roster spot but the deferrals also could give the team some significant money to play with for 2013. Although the current outlook of next season isn't pretty, they could add a couple of mid-tier outfielders and have a puncher's chance at a wild card spot; the starting pitching staff certainly has the upside to lead them. That is, of course, if they do not trade Wright or Dickey, which very well may happen yet.

Trading Wright might hurt a little short-term if you go strictly by the numbers, but you know where I stand on this...either pick up his option with the hope of upping his trade value a little more, or trade him now. Do not keep him beyond the trading deadline next season. That's money horribly spent.

Can't blame the Mets if they trade Dickey, though I'd hate to see him go...they'd be selling high.

I can actually handle Alderson punting one more season away if it means he'll be aggressive, starting either during the season or the next offseason. Wright and Dickey could bring back some nice young pieces.

[nmigliore]

R.A. DICKEY WINS THE NL CY YOUNG!!!!

Awesome!!! Congrats to R.A.!!! What a year. Wow. I feel so happy for him, he deserved it.

Edited by nmigliore, 14 November 2012 - 07:11 PM.

['7']

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

Best thing to happen to the Mets in a long long time. And it couldn't have happened to a better guy. The voters got this right.

Jason Bay is off the team and RA Dickey is a Cy Young Award winner. Kind of feels good to be a Met fan today.

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976, 14 November 2012 - 08:08 PM.

[Devils Dose]

#CyDickey !!!!!!

[nmigliore]

Sounds like the Mets are confident in working out an extension with Wright:

NEW YORK -- The New York Mets have offered a contract extension to David Wright that would keep the All-Star third baseman with the club at least through 2020, a major league source told ESPNNewYork.com.
The source said Wright had been offered at least a seven-year extension by the Mets, on top of the $16 million he is owed for 2013.

A source who has communicated with Mets officials said the organization strongly believesDavid Wright will sign an extension with the club.

"They've been really optimistic," the source told ESPNNewYork.com.

http://espn.go.com/blog/new-york/mets/

I definitely don't like the idea of 8 years (2013 + 7 year extension). Including his 2013 salary, my hope is that it's something like 8/125, but that's almost certainly too low. If this extension works out it's probably going to be an overpay... hopefully it's not a crippling one.

Edited by nmigliore, 27 November 2012 - 02:09 PM.

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

Huge mistake if the Mets re-sign him to such a long-term lifetime achievement contract...this is not a good move. Not sure why the Mets are trying to bring him back as though they're getting the 2005-08 Wright...and why any Met fan would be excited about him coming back at this price. His second half was dreadful.

[nmigliore]

The big media guys are chiming in now. Ken Rosenthal says Mets are offering 7/135-150, Jon Heyman says 7/135-140. I can only hope that includes his 2013 option otherwise, oof. 7/135 is still rich for me but it's not that bad. 8/155ish has the potential to be really terrible.

Edit: Rosenthal corrected himself said it's 8/135-145, not 7.

Edited by nmigliore, 27 November 2012 - 04:12 PM.

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

The big media guys are chiming in now. Ken Rosenthal says Mets are offering 7/135-150, Jon Heyman says 7/135-140. I can only hope that includes his 2013 option otherwise, oof. 7/135 is still rich for me but it's not that bad. 8/155ish has the potential to be really terrible.

How can you possibly justify 7 years and $135 million for David Wright?

[nmigliore]

How can you possibly justify 7 years and $135 million for David Wright?

If it included his 2013 option, that's not so bad. It's like valuing him as a 4.5- to 5-win player next year with standard aging and 5% inflation each year. I still find that to be too optimistic (which is what I said it's still rich for me), but it adds up to $130M-ish in value over the next 7 years. He'd basically be paid market rates for what he is and even if the Mets end up overpaying by $1.5M each year it's not going to kill them. Giving him another year and $15M or whatever on top of that would be pretty hard to defend, though.

Edited by nmigliore, 27 November 2012 - 04:19 PM.

[NJDevs4978]

How can you possibly justify 7 years and $135 million for David Wright?

I can barely justify 6-100, but the Mets are between a rock and a hard place unfortunately. They are bidding against themselves at this point, but they're also at a point where they either have to sign him now or trade him since they lose all credibility if they allow Reyes and Wright to walk for nothing in the span of three offseasons. Problem is because Wright's the only face of the franchise left (Dickey somewhat is in the discussion at this point) they lose what little credibility they have left if they let him go anyway. Especially since there's nobody they can really sign in a thin FA crop that's going to come flocking to Citi. So really the only options are:

1) Overpay, lock yourself into a bad contract (not like it would be a first around here) but keep a guy who's not going to embarass you off the field and wants to be a Met
2) Trade him, and alienate the fanbase even more than it already has been after the last three years

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

If it included his 2013 option, that's not so bad. It's like valuing him as a 4.5- to 5-win player next year with standard aging and 5% inflation each year. I still find that to be too optimistic (which is what I said it's still rich for me), but it adds up to $130M-ish in value over the next 7 years. If the Mets end up overpaying by $1.5M each year it's not going to kill them.

It could be worse than that...if 2nd-half Wright rears his ugly head more often than not, this could be one of those contracts that becomes an albatross for a team that doesn't look like they're going to be big spenders anytime soon. It may not kill them if their young (inexpensive) pitching blossoms, but both Wright and the Mets will take their fair share of heat if he is not living up to that deal. I think I have company, as far as doubters go.

NJDevs4978, just saw your response...the thing is, I don't think trading him would alienate as many people as you'd think. His face of the franchise isn't really a good one to have...it's not all his fault, but the Wright/Reyes Era is going to be remembered for failed expectations...it's not like he's a symbol of winning...he's been around for two major collapses and several losing seasons. To me he represents status quo, and I think the Mets have already gotten his best, and I think it's time to move on. If the Mets trade him, it will be a sign that they're trying to build a new identity, and I am solidly behind that.

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976, 27 November 2012 - 04:31 PM.

[nmigliore]

If they get something done I can at least praise the front office for showing decisiveness. I said Wright's situation had to be resolved before the season and they will have done that (DIckey would have to be next, of course).

[nmigliore]

team that doesn't look like they're going to be big spenders anytime soon.

Why? I thought we went over this. The Mets have little-to-no payroll commitments beyond 2013. As of right now, Jon Niese's team-friendly deal is the only guarantee, and he never tops more than $9M in a guaranteed season. Even if they resign Dickey and Wright they'll likely have less than $40M in committed money for 2014. Even when accounting for arbitration-eligible players like Davis, Gee, and Murphy, it's hard to envision them not having a good chunk of coin to play with.

Edited by nmigliore, 27 November 2012 - 04:40 PM.

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

Why? I thought we went over this. The Mets have little-to-no payroll commitments beyond 2013. As of right now, Jon Niese's team-friendly deal is the only guarantee, and he never tops more than $9M in a guaranteed season. Even if they resign Dickey and Wright they'll likely have less than $40M in committed money for 2014. Even when accounting for arbitration-eligible players like Davis, Gee, and Murphy, it's hard to envision them not having a good chunk of coin to play with.

That's fair...be that as it may, I still wouldn't spend anywhere near that kind of money on Wright. It is nice that they're going to have some money to spend...now it's just a question of making the Met brand palatable to potential targets.

[NJDevs4978]

Why? I thought we went over this. The Mets have little-to-no payroll commitments beyond 2013. As of right now, Jon Niese's team-friendly deal is the only guarantee, and he never tops more than $9M in a guaranteed season. Even if they resign Dickey and Wright they'll likely have less than $40M in committed money for 2014. Even when accounting for arbitration-eligible players like Davis, Gee, and Murphy, it's hard to envision them not having a good chunk of coin to play with.

Quasi-sidebar but basically most of the NYFS board wants to trade Niese lol, I guess after what the A's accomplished trading Gio Gonzalez everyone else is looking for the same big package now but it'd be in poor taste imo if the Mets traded Niese one year into a five-year deal that he gave the team a break on cause he wanted to stay.