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The Official "2012 Playoffs Excitement" Thread


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#921 Matteau#32

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Posted 08 May 2012 - 08:04 PM

But today's NHL is so much different than the NHL of the 80s, even the 90s...the days of the god-awful, no-chance-to-win-most-nights teams are a thing of the past, as are the true powerhouse teams...it wasn't so long ago that some of the top teams were outscoring the opposition by 150 goals or so...the 2000-01 Devils outscored their opposition by 100 goals. Like some have pointed out, what we now have is a glut of pretty good but flawed teams that really aren't that much different from each other, in terms of pure talent, that could finish within a certain window of point totals depending on luck, health, etc. Some teams match up better than others, sometimes a coach finds the right game plan...the point of this being, moreso than ever, no matter what the sabermetric, gut feeling, traditional stat, etc, trying to make sense of what might happen in the NHL playoffs is really friggin' difficult these days. No one saw the Devils owning the Flyers the past three games, no one saw LA going 8-1 to knock out seeds #1 and #2, not too many saw Washington taking out Boston...it's a mad mad mad mad mad playoff world these days.

I agree with this 100%.
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#922 Matteau#32

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Posted 08 May 2012 - 08:07 PM

Triumph will be the first to tell you that much of the Stanley Cup outcomes are about luck. Statistics just help to give you an edge as to who is more likely to emerge victorious.

Luck? YOu mean, when his statistical "analysis" doesn't hold up, it is because of luck?

So, in that case how would we judge the 2nd devils goal? Luck? Now, is it bad luck for the flyers, good luck for the devils? Do we have a silly fake stat that will measure the goaltenders likelihood to do something stupid? Is it a combination of Brygalov making a stupid play and devils luck, or is just the devils being lucky that the Flyers made that stupid play?
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#923 halfsharkalligatorhalfman

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Posted 08 May 2012 - 09:56 PM

Luck? YOu mean, when his statistical "analysis" doesn't hold up, it is because of luck?


Yeah this is a pretty fair criticism actually. Luck is another word in stats for "unexplained by the model." Much of what could be attributed to luck could actually be attributed to some factor that we have not measured or are completely ignoring. This is why people work so hard on developing better models to minimize the amount of "luck" inherent in predicting outcomes.

The point is all of this stat analysis is a marked improvement over analysis like looking at the regular season point total/seeds. Or just going based on what you see with your naked eye. It's useful and should not be ignored just because one doesn't understand it, or it isn't perfect.
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#924 Jas0nMacIsaac

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Posted 08 May 2012 - 10:15 PM

Luck? YOu mean, when his statistical "analysis" doesn't hold up, it is because of luck?

So, in that case how would we judge the 2nd devils goal? Luck? Now, is it bad luck for the flyers, good luck for the devils? Do we have a silly fake stat that will measure the goaltenders likelihood to do something stupid? Is it a combination of Brygalov making a stupid play and devils luck, or is just the devils being lucky that the Flyers made that stupid play?


Luck doesnt take every individual play into consideration, it is ratios that are unsustainable. You look at the big picture.
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#925 Triumph

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Posted 08 May 2012 - 10:53 PM

Luck? YOu mean, when his statistical "analysis" doesn't hold up, it is because of luck?

So, in that case how would we judge the 2nd devils goal? Luck? Now, is it bad luck for the flyers, good luck for the devils? Do we have a silly fake stat that will measure the goaltenders likelihood to do something stupid? Is it a combination of Brygalov making a stupid play and devils luck, or is just the devils being lucky that the Flyers made that stupid play?


Most people can't think stochastically. Predicting one team will win 60% of the time means the other 40% of the time, the other team wins.

'Advanced' NHL stats really can't predict that much because NHL games have an incredible amount of uncertainty (like that Bryzgalov play). They can still predict much more than looking at things like goals for, goals against, points, etc.
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#926 Stolen

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Posted 08 May 2012 - 10:57 PM

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2:02:

http://watch.tsn.ca/...5281#clip675281

Edited by Stolen, 08 May 2012 - 10:58 PM.

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#927 Neb00rs

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Posted 08 May 2012 - 11:19 PM

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2:02:

http://watch.tsn.ca/...5281#clip675281


Haha Carter owns him. Cue the Lol U mad? Kovy photo.
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#928 halfsharkalligatorhalfman

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Posted 08 May 2012 - 11:34 PM

God Briere is so dirty with that spear.


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#929 Biggie B

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Posted 09 May 2012 - 07:21 AM

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2:02:

http://watch.tsn.ca/...5281#clip675281


Im confused. Did briere take someon'es stick? Out of context this video makes me scratch my head. Lol
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#930 Matteau#32

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Posted 09 May 2012 - 07:25 AM

Yeah this is a pretty fair criticism actually. Luck is another word in stats for "unexplained by the model." Much of what could be attributed to luck could actually be attributed to some factor that we have not measured or are completely ignoring. This is why people work so hard on developing better models to minimize the amount of "luck" inherent in predicting outcomes.

The point is all of this stat analysis is a marked improvement over analysis like looking at the regular season point total/seeds. Or just going based on what you see with your naked eye. It's useful and should not be ignored just because one doesn't understand it, or it isn't perfect.

I understand it just fine, just don't see it as valid.
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#931 Matteau#32

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Posted 09 May 2012 - 07:33 AM

Luck doesnt take every individual play into consideration, it is ratios that are unsustainable. You look at the big picture.

Yeah, the BIG picture, which is not going to be valid over a short series. What you are doing when using Fenwic, corsi, whatever other numbers you want to use to apply it to a short series (even after the fact) is along the lines of saying, "Out of 10million random Americans of legal voting age polled, 55% said they plan to vote or Obama in the next election. With that in mind, We expect Obama to recieve 55% of the vote in Westfield, NJ." The stats fail to take into account, as was pointed out earlier, the match-ups, the coaching, the strategy and style of play, and of course when it comes to hockey, the hot goaltender.
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#932 Matteau#32

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Posted 09 May 2012 - 07:36 AM

Most people can't think stochastically. Predicting one team will win 60% of the time means the other 40% of the time, the other team wins.

'Advanced' NHL stats really can't predict that much because NHL games have an incredible amount of uncertainty (like that Bryzgalov play). They can still predict much more than looking at things like goals for, goals against, points, etc.

THANK YOU. Predict more, maybe. MUCH more? Disagree. Not sure how Dan Girardi hitting the glass with his shot 10 times a game helps the Rangers win long-term.
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#933 DaneykoIsGod

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Posted 09 May 2012 - 08:35 AM

Im confused. Did briere take someon'es stick? Out of context this video makes me scratch my head. Lol


Briere tried to sneak a spear into Carter's gut as he's going to the bench there. The Flyers have been doing this for a very, very long time now (and getting away with it), and Briere in particular is one of the worst offenders.
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#934 David Puddy

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Posted 09 May 2012 - 11:01 AM

'Advanced' NHL stats really can't predict that much because NHL games have an incredible amount of uncertainty (like that Bryzgalov play). They can still predict much more than looking at things like goals for, goals against, points, etc.


Isn't the purpose of advanced stats more to determine a player's value rather than to predict the outcome of games?
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#935 Triumph

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Posted 09 May 2012 - 11:11 AM

Isn't the purpose of advanced stats more to determine a player's value rather than to predict the outcome of games?


It's better at that for sure, but the two things aren't unrelated.
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#936 hockey3893498

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Posted 09 May 2012 - 11:45 AM

the kings are living pretty charmed right now but the team that wins the cup goes through adversity and the ups and downs of a long playoff run. the devils, rangers and capitals all have. phoenix has, too. i just think the kings as good as they've played and have looked we haven't seen what will happen with them if they hit any kind of adversity.
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#937 NJDevs4978

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Posted 09 May 2012 - 12:26 PM

btw what time will games begin in the next round, 7:30 or 8? It's been a long time since I cared about possible ECF start times.
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#938 NLinfante

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Posted 09 May 2012 - 01:04 PM

THANK YOU. Predict more, maybe. MUCH more? Disagree. Not sure how Dan Girardi hitting the glass with his shot 10 times a game helps the Rangers win long-term.



I'm not always a big stat guy either, but I think the point goes something like this:

It's not so much that Girardi taking shots and missing the net helps the rangers win, it's that the fact that (for that shift, at least) if he's shooting it means the other team isn't shooting, which means the other team isn't scoring, which helps the rangers win.

The transitive property at its finest.
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#939 NJDevils1214

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Posted 09 May 2012 - 02:29 PM

Im confused. Did briere take someon'es stick? Out of context this video makes me scratch my head. Lol


I dont know what is funnier. Carter saying "Well I'll just take that since you don't know how to use it properly" or Hartnell throwing a fit...again. :rofl:
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#940 Triumph

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Posted 09 May 2012 - 02:52 PM

I'm not always a big stat guy either, but I think the point goes something like this:

It's not so much that Girardi taking shots and missing the net helps the rangers win, it's that the fact that (for that shift, at least) if he's shooting it means the other team isn't shooting, which means the other team isn't scoring, which helps the rangers win.

The transitive property at its finest.


Yeah, this explains it really well. A 'missed shot' isn't, in itself, a positive outcome, unless it's in Detroit and Pierre McGuire is working himself into mania describing how great it is that Detroit players occasionally shoot wide on purpose to set up a teammate. But that missed shot tells you where the puck was. We use shots as a proxy for puck possession - having the puck more means getting more chances to score and therefore more chances to win.

Just checked - didn't know this data was available - Detroit had a 63.4% Fenwick tied in the 2007-08 playoffs. They are definitely overlooked as one of the greatest teams of all time, but I think they're right up there. I imagine the 2000 Devils numbers are similar.

Edited by Triumph, 09 May 2012 - 02:52 PM.

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