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I predict Kovy's numbers will improve with the departure of Parise


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#21 Triumph

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Posted 17 July 2012 - 02:22 PM

Even if correct, it's a pretty thin analysis. To see a real trend, you'd have to a painstaking analysis like they do at INLWT of all of his two on ones. Was the defender concentrating on Kovy, was the goalie cheating to one side, was the puck on edge?

What I see with my own eyes is a big fast skater with a great shot, who stick handles very well, and that seems to convert on his break-aways at an incredibly high rate, including on penalty shots, which do decide whether you win games.


Breakaways are fluke events. Also, Kovalchuk's shootout rate was well below average before joining the Devils. My point is that Kovalchuk is criticized for not shooting enough, but so is anyone who isn't Jamie Langenbrunner - if anyone passes on a 2 on 1 and it doesn't at least result in a great chance, they are criticized. I'd be curious about 2 on 1s in general, what the result is with a pass versus a shot.

Look, the team is worse off not having Parise. That would be true of any team. However, in post-MacLean 2010-2011, Kovy was great without Parise and without Henrique. So while playing with Parise will help anyone, be it Crosby or Nick Palmieri, Kovy should still produce at a high level without him.


This is one of those things that people say around here and it really isn't true.

2010-11 post MacLean: 50.1% Fenwick, +2 at ES, 42 points (23 G, 19 A) in 49 GP, 150 SOG, 3.06 S/G, 15.3 S%. 'Great'? Not sure - getting some shooting luck, that's for sure. But 3 S/G while playing 2 minutes of the power play and generally playing more than any forward in the NHL? Not great.

The big issue is his health. So long as that turns out ok and so long as he doesn't revert to his old ways of trying to do everything himself, which is more a mental thing that can be mitigated by good coaching, it's not unreasonable to expect him to be one of the top ten forwards in the league, if not top five.


He's not one of the top ten or top five forwards in the league.
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#22 capo

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Posted 17 July 2012 - 07:20 PM

"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics." ~ Mark Twain
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#23 Devilsfan118

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Posted 17 July 2012 - 08:37 PM

He's not one of the top ten or top five forwards in the league.


I'd like to see your list of the top 10 forwards in the league. I'm genuinely curious.
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#24 Zubie#8

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Posted 17 July 2012 - 09:11 PM

I'd like to see your list of the top 10 forwards in the league. I'm genuinely curious.

Ill give you mine! :)

Crosby
Malkin
Stamkos
Datsyuk
Kovalchuk
Henrik Sedin
Giroux
Ovechkin
Kopitar
Parise
Elias :beerbang:

Edited by Zubie#8, 17 July 2012 - 09:15 PM.

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#25 SterioDesign

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Posted 17 July 2012 - 09:43 PM

i dont know... Kovy played with pretty much EVERYONE on the team since he was double shifting and he was making those pass to anyone... he made volchenkov score!!! lol

plus he was playing like 50 minutes per game and was playing every single seconds of the power plays
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#26 SMantzas

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Posted 17 July 2012 - 09:46 PM

Ill give you mine! :)

Crosby
Malkin
Stamkos
Datsyuk
Kovalchuk
Henrik Sedin
Giroux
Ovechkin
Kopitar
Parise
Elias :beerbang:

Good list

Spezza and Tavares could be on there thuogh
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#27 Zubie#8

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Posted 17 July 2012 - 10:18 PM

Good list

Spezza and Tavares could be on there thuogh

Should have a top 15 or 20 because there are so many good players.
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#28 AEWHistory

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Posted 18 July 2012 - 02:50 AM

Ill give you mine! :)

Crosby
Malkin
Stamkos
Datsyuk
Kovalchuk
Henrik Sedin
Giroux
Ovechkin
Kopitar
Parise
Elias :beerbang:


Where is Cam Janssen? Seems like a major omission to me.
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#29 Triumph

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Posted 18 July 2012 - 08:59 AM

I'd like to see your list of the top 10 forwards in the league. I'm genuinely curious.


I mean, lists like this are just bound to stir up debate, but I can name 10 forwards better than Kovalchuk pretty easily: Crosby, Malkin, Datsyuk, Stamkos, Kopitar, Thornton, Sedin, Sedin, Toews, Tim Sestito. Okay, just kidding about that last one. I mean, take your pick.

As Sterio said, I imagine there's value in Kovalchuk being able to take such a huge amount of minutes.

Edited by Triumph, 18 July 2012 - 09:00 AM.

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#30 Daniel

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Posted 18 July 2012 - 09:05 AM

As Sterio said, I imagine there's value in Kovalchuk being able to take such a huge amount of minutes.


Brings up another point that the Kovy-haters make that his numbers are inflated because he's generally on the ice for the entire powerplay and a lot of his points come on the powerplay. Well, powerplay goals count last time I checked. And it's a good thing that the best forward can play effectively for the entirety of the powerplay.

We all talk about how great Larsson was for being able to rack a lot minutes especially as a 19 year old. Why is it any different for a forward who can score?
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#31 capo

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Posted 18 July 2012 - 09:14 AM

I mean, lists like this are just bound to stir up debate, but I can name 10 forwards better than Kovalchuk pretty easily: Crosby, Malkin, Datsyuk, Stamkos, Kopitar, Thornton, Sedin, Sedin, Toews, Tim Sestito. Okay, just kidding about that last one. I mean, take your pick.

As Sterio said, I imagine there's value in Kovalchuk being able to take such a huge amount of minutes.


Toews isn't even the best player on his team... I'm sure your using some kind of advance stats to come up with this but Toews? C'mon, dude. The kid is a good player but he's not a top 10 player in the league.
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#32 Daniel

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Posted 18 July 2012 - 09:14 AM

I mean, lists like this are just bound to stir up debate, but I can name 10 forwards better than Kovalchuk pretty easily: Crosby, Malkin, Datsyuk, Stamkos, Kopitar, Thornton, Sedin, Sedin, Toews, Tim Sestito. Okay, just kidding about that last one. I mean, take your pick.

As Sterio said, I imagine there's value in Kovalchuk being able to take such a huge amount of minutes.


Thorton not any more.
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#33 capo

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Posted 18 July 2012 - 09:20 AM

Thorton not any more.


I could probably agree with that. I feel like some sort of malaise has come over him. Same thing with Lecavalier (before injuries) and where the hell is Eric Staal on his list?
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#34 Triumph

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Posted 18 July 2012 - 09:30 AM

Toews isn't even the best player on his team... I'm sure your using some kind of advance stats to come up with this but Toews? C'mon, dude. The kid is a good player but he's not a top 10 player in the league.


Cool? I wasn't listing the 10 best players in the league. I was listing 10 forwards better than Kovalchuk. I figured Toews is a safe pick and that picks like Bergeron and J. Staal would be less popular.

I could probably agree with that. I feel like some sort of malaise has come over him. Same thing with Lecavalier (before injuries) and where the hell is Eric Staal on his list?


Lecavalier was a top forward for only 2 years - he's been seriously overrated. Thornton crushed it this year. Eric Staal is like if Kovalchuk played center - totally overrated based on goals-assists.
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#35 Daniel

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Posted 18 July 2012 - 09:41 AM

Cool? I wasn't listing the 10 best players in the league. I was listing 10 forwards better than Kovalchuk. I figured Toews is a safe pick and that picks like Bergeron and J. Staal would be less popular.



Lecavalier was a top forward for only 2 years - he's been seriously overrated. Thornton crushed it this year. Eric Staal is like if Kovalchuk played center - totally overrated based on goals-assists.


My knock on Thorton is that he's not goal scorer. He's also 33, so you would expect the decline to come soon, if it hasn't happened already.

I know you don't care about stuff like that, but E. Staal has proven to have the intangibles.

Bergeron would be one of your contrarian picks. Thanks for resisting the urge.

This year will be a good test for J. Staal. But the fact remains, he was still a third-line center.
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#36 capo

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Posted 18 July 2012 - 09:49 AM

Cool? I wasn't listing the 10 best players in the league. I was listing 10 forwards better than Kovalchuk. I figured Toews is a safe pick and that picks like Bergeron and J. Staal would be less popular.



Lecavalier was a top forward for only 2 years - he's been seriously overrated. Thornton crushed it this year. Eric Staal is like if Kovalchuk played center - totally overrated based on goals-assists.


I love guys like Bergeron, J. Staal, and Toews but they aren't game breakers in isolation of their team. They can all make plays to help their team win but they need something else to happen in order for their play to come to fruition. Kovalchuck, Staal, Ovechkin can do it all by themselves and with players like this there is more of a risk going the other way but that doesn't take away from their ability to win games or lead their team for long stretches on their own. Those other guys just can't do that.
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#37 RedArmy8

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Posted 18 July 2012 - 10:05 AM

Lecavalier was a top forward for only 2 years - he's been seriously overrated.


He two great years because he had Marty St.Louis making him look good. Since then Marty St. Louis has been playing with Stamkos.

I don't think Eric Staal is overrated, he just has no support since the Stanley Cup.
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#38 Triumph

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Posted 18 July 2012 - 10:05 AM

I love guys like Bergeron, J. Staal, and Toews but they aren't game breakers in isolation of their team. They can all make plays to help their team win but they need something else to happen in order for their play to come to fruition. Kovalchuck, Staal, Ovechkin can do it all by themselves and with players like this there is more of a risk going the other way but that doesn't take away from their ability to win games or lead their team for long stretches on their own. Those other guys just can't do that.


Yes, it does take away from that ability. It absolutely does. Yes, Kovalchuk has 10 games a year where he looks like the best player in NHL history and you wonder how he doesn't have 50 goals and 75 assists every year. He also has 10 games where he looks like total dogsh!t, and that costs the team wins. Staal and Ovechkin are the same way - Eric Staal is a bad defensive player. If Carolina had centers, he probably should be moved to wing. Ovechkin I only didn't include since people now think he's terrible, and I think Kovalchuk had a better year than he did, but Ovechkin was much, much better for the last 5 years.
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#39 RedArmy8

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Posted 18 July 2012 - 10:07 AM

Yes, it does take away from that ability. It absolutely does. Yes, Kovalchuk has 10 games a year where he looks like the best player in NHL history and you wonder how he doesn't have 50 goals and 75 assists every year. He also has 10 games where he looks like total dogsh!t, and that costs the team wins. Staal and Ovechkin are the same way - Eric Staal is a bad defensive player. If Carolina had centers, he probably should be moved to wing. Ovechkin I only didn't include since people now think he's terrible, and I think Kovalchuk had a better year than he did, but Ovechkin was much, much better for the last 5 years.


Have to agree, but Staal has to take more risks because Carolina is often behind in games.
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#40 DJ Eco

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Posted 18 July 2012 - 10:19 AM

Brings up another point that the Kovy-haters make that his numbers are inflated because he's generally on the ice for the entire powerplay and a lot of his points come on the powerplay. Well, powerplay goals count last time I checked.



Sounds like the whole bitchy series of points Rags fans make:

"Brodeur isn't even that good. His numbers are seriously inflated because he had a great defense in front of him."

"Devils were never that good. They only won 3 Cups because of Brodeur."

Unfortunately, I see a lot of that Ranger-ism in the Kovy haters when they're present for their one game a season..

Edited by DJ Eco, 18 July 2012 - 10:19 AM.

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