48 replies to this topic

[Daniel]

\He also has 10 games where he looks like total dogsh!t, and that costs the team wins.

I think you're overstating that a bit. Off the top of my head, for this past season, I can only think of the dreadful performance against the Isles. I don't count his bad games during the playoffs, given that he was playing with an injury that, if it had been the regular season, could have kept him out for two weeks to a month. 2010-2011 I consider an anomoly for the entire team.

He also consistently has the most minutes on any given night, a tall task for a forward. You'd expect losses to fall on him more often, almost as a tautology. I could be convinced otherwise though if you can take a forward with comparable ice-time and a comparable supporting cast that costs his team wins.

[Triumph]

I think you're overstating that a bit. Off the top of my head, for this past season, I can only think of the dreadful performance against the Isles. I don't count his bad games during the playoffs, given that he was playing with an injury that, if it had been the regular season, could have kept him out for two weeks to a month. 2010-2011 I consider an anomoly for the entire team.

He's a break-even Fenwick player. Some nights, he's great. Other nights, he's terrible. Not always due to him, but he's usually the player carrying the puck the most when he's out on the ice.

The top players won't have this kind of disparity, because they are more often driving the play. We'd expect their best games to be better and also their worst games to be better than Kovalchuk's worst games.

He also consistently has the most minutes on any given night, a tall task for a forward. You'd expect losses to fall on him more often, almost as a tautology. I could be convinced otherwise though if you can take a forward with comparable ice-time and a comparable supporting cast that costs his team wins.

Admittedly this is on the coach, and I'd be curious to see how Kovalchuk would fare if he were given less ice time, but Ovechkin has played almost as many minutes with much better performance.

[Daniel]

Admittedly this is on the coach, and I'd be curious to see how Kovalchuk would fare if he were given less ice time, but Ovechkin has played almost as many minutes with much better performance.

Wasn't Ovechkin's ice-time cut dramatically when Hunter took over? I know he was getting less than 20 minutes in regulation during the playoffs.

Obviously over the course of their careers, Ovechkin has been the better player. And that certainly counts for something when evaluating who the better player is now. But Kovy was better than Ovechkin this past year. Makes it a tough call to say who I'd rather have right now.

[capo]

He's a break-even Fenwick player. Some nights, he's great. Other nights, he's terrible. Not always due to him, but he's usually the player carrying the puck the most when he's out on the ice.

The top players won't have this kind of disparity, because they are more often driving the play. We'd expect their best games to be better and also their worst games to be better than Kovalchuk's worst games.



Admittedly this is on the coach, and I'd be curious to see how Kovalchuk would fare if he were given less ice time, but Ovechkin has played almost as many minutes with much better performance.

This is why you can't just factor these ridiculous advanced stats and live by them. Ovechkin was very comfortable with his team in his mind and in his body since he joined the league then sh!t stopped being so comfortable and his play was affected. Not everything that happens on the ice is the result of the players skill. There are so many underlying things that go on that make things go the way that they do. Confidence is key!

[Triumph]

Wasn't Ovechkin's ice-time cut dramatically when Hunter took over? I know he was getting less than 20 minutes in regulation during the playoffs.

Obviously over the course of their careers, Ovechkin has been the better player. And that certainly counts for something when evaluating who the better player is now. But Kovy was better than Ovechkin this past year. Makes it a tough call to say who I'd rather have right now.

Ovechkin's 2 years younger, so I'd still rather have him. Hunter was a terrible coach, so it'll be interesting to see how Ovechkin responds. I don't think we'll be seeing 50+ goal, 450+ shot seasons anymore, but 300 shots and 30-35 goals? I could see that.

This is why you can't just factor these ridiculous advanced stats and live by them. Ovechkin was very comfortable with his team in his mind and in his body since he joined the league then sh!t stopped being so comfortable and his play was affected. Not everything that happens on the ice is the result of the players skill. There are so many underlying things that go on that make things go the way that they do. Confidence is key!

If I had insight into Alex Ovechkin's mind like you apparently do, I'd agree. I lack that insight.

[capo]

Ovechkin's 2 years younger, so I'd still rather have him. Hunter was a terrible coach, so it'll be interesting to see how Ovechkin responds. I don't think we'll be seeing 50+ goal, 450+ shot seasons anymore, but 300 shots and 30-35 goals? I could see that.



If I had insight into Alex Ovechkin's mind like you apparently do, I'd agree. I lack that insight.

If the game was played by robots your advanced stats would have complete merit.

[Triumph]

If the game was played by robots your advanced stats would have complete merit.

But since it's not, they have no merit. Gotcha. I've never claimed that 'advanced stats' (they really should be called basic stats, as they are incredibly basic) explain the game completely. They don't at all. They just explain the game better than my eyes, your eyes, and the regular statistics.

[Neb00rs]

I don't think Kovy's numbers will decrease if that's what we're arguing about. They could certainly increase if he plays with someone who elevates their game next year (Henrique, Zajac, etc..) but if either that doesn't happen or we don't get a new top line player it is unlikely to happen because Kovy is not going to be able to use his old ATL techniques (hopefully) of "play-the-game-by-myself" to score 100 points.

[capo]

But since it's not, they have no merit. Gotcha. I've never claimed that 'advanced stats' (they really should be called basic stats, as they are incredibly basic) explain the game completely. They don't at all. They just explain the game better than my eyes, your eyes, and the regular statistics.

I'm not trying to get you at all. I'd rather build team by finding the right pieces to the puzzle than taking some numbers and trying to put as many as those like numbers together to create the perfect product. There are very few players in this league that differ immensely talent wise and that's what I'm talking about. All the other guys need help to produce. They need to be "fitted" with their team. When this happens you have success.