Romney's going to win this hands down
Cannot wait to see your reaction when he loses.
The electoral map is looking like it's going to be identical to 2008 with the exception of Indiana. A few other states could swing but they I have no idea what polls, or facts you have to suggest that Romney is going to win anything hands down. At this point his best projects have him squeaking out a victory. Romney needs almost every swing state, Ohio and Florida most of all and he is trailing in both. You know what Ohio and Florida have a lot of? blue collar workers and senior citizens that make up a vast chunk of that 47%.
And North Carolina, which will probably go Romney. Romney needs to have the performance of a lifetime in the debates to turn this around, and even that may not be enough. IMO, the only thing that will turn this thing to Romney's favor is an October Surprise of historical proportions (major stock market collapse or a major international/terrorist incident) or if Obama doesn't show up for the debates. The chance of being "identical to 2008" is virtually slim and none. Romney will do better than McCain, but won't do as good as Bush did electorally.
Calling press conferences on a Monday at 10pm (after the 47% debacle) and continuous attempts at "rebooting" a campaign are signs that a campaign is in trouble. Even conservatives admit this.
In a historical context, incumbents polling where they are right now with 6 weeks to election day win.
The Democrats/left are motivated now. Just as the Republicans got motivated late in the game in 2004. It takes longer for the incumbent party to get motivated for obvious reasons.
I think the state to watch on election night is obviously Ohio. If the President wins Ohio, this thing is over.
Edited by ghdi, 26 September 2012 - 01:11 PM.