127 replies to this topic

[ghdi]

Nate Silver has basically got this stuff down to the 't'. http://fivethirtyeig...gs.nytimes.com/ Right now he is calling NC for Romney but I think that will switch by election day and if so, it's the same map 2008 (sans Indiana). His work almost takes the fun out of following an election =[

I agree with you though, I don't think Romney can win at this point, he needs Obama to lose.

Yea, Silver is arguably the best and has called so much correctly in the last few cycles and is partially what Im basing my NC guess on. NC just seems like a tough go this time around, but I agree in the sense that if did go blue, that'd be the least surprising state to do so.

I don't even think a debate "win" does anything for Romney. He won't trounce Obama. The right will say he did, just as the left will say Obama will. He needs something that neither of them have much control over to win. I also don't think there's many undecideds to make much of a difference outside of a few points either way. Does anyone know anyone that's undecided at this point? I certainly don't.

[squishyx]

I don't even think a debate "win" does anything for Romney. He won't trounce Obama. The right will say he did, just as the left will say Obama will. He needs something that neither of them have much control over to win. I also don't think there's many undecideds to make much of a difference outside of a few points either way. Does anyone know anyone that's undecided at this point? I certainly don't.

At this point most of the campaigning is really just to make sure your base actually gets out to vote, the pool of undecided is so small, and those pools end up breaking proportionally to the national vote anyway. You are seeing both sides lower expectations for the debate, which I think is an indication that they both know that neither can really win but they can certainly lose. The debates have become landmines which is a shame but the way it is.

[devilsadvoc8]

The economic news today was certainly not helpful to Obama and the meltdown in europe is also going to drag our economic news here for a while. That's out of Obama's control now, policies can't make a big change now.

[ATLL765]

Saying the tape was incomplete and edited is just reality, nobody disputes that to be true.

I didn't specifically say it was taken out of context. I specifically said I wasn't saying he was taken out of context. I specifically said we could never be sure what the context might be if we heard the full answer, and that's also true.

You and Squish saying I said he was taken out of context needs an intellectual dishonesty or a complete lack of comprehension of the English words saying I wasn't doing that. I don't know how either of you can think you're having an effective or fair discussion when you can't honestly repeat what other people say in their discussion.

Saying we don't know what the context is the same as it being out of context. It leaves you with the same result: being unable to correctly assess a statement due to lack of information. A rose by any other name is still a rose, get it?

Edited by ATLL765, 01 October 2012 - 12:11 PM.

[squishyx]

Yea, Silver is arguably the best and has called so much correctly in the last few cycles and is partially what Im basing my NC guess on. NC just seems like a tough go this time around, but I agree in the sense that if did go blue, that'd be the least surprising state to do so.

Silver's now showing NC for Obama (if ever so slightly)

[Devils731]

Saying we don't know what the context is the same as it being out of context. It leaves you with the same result: being unable to correctly assess a statement due to lack of information. A rose by any other name is still a rose, get it?

Obviously they don't mean the same thing. If a box holds 2 or 3 items, you say it holds 3 and I say I don't know how many it holds, it does not mean I'm saying the box has 2.

[ATLL765]

Obviously they don't mean the same thing. If a box holds 2 or 3 items, you say it holds 3 and I say I don't know how many it holds, it does not mean I'm saying the box has 2.

Whatever you say. There's no other implication you could have been making by saying that you don't know what the context was. Both being out of context or not knowing the context provides the same issue. So if the means were different(maybe), but the end was the same. You're free to say I don't know what I'm talking about, I guess, but c'mon you and I both know what you were trying to say.

[squishyx]

"Well, clearly in a campaign, with hundreds if not thousands of speeches and question-and-answer sessions, now and then you're going to say something that doesn't come out right," Romney said. "In this case, I said something that's just completely wrong."