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#1 Jas0nMacIsaac

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Posted 28 November 2012 - 04:10 PM

Since it is a slow season for hockey talk I was doing some research on Jacob Josefson to see where he was at the age of 20 and 21. The more stats I dig up the more I think he will be an underappreciated forward similar to Elias.

!!!!!Stat Alert!!!!!

Last season when looking at FenHARO+, FenHARD+ and FenHART+ at 5on5 close and 5on5 tied, it is amazing how well he did in a semi-small sample size. His offense is usually around expected value but his defense is among the best in the NHL. FenHARD+ when tied, he is tops in the NHL by a large amount, teams just don't get any shots directed towards the next when he is on the ice. Keep in mind this is QOC and zonestart adjusted

150 min FenHART+ 5on5 tied - 1st
200 min FenHART+ 5on5 close - 14th

Even with below average shots taken he was around average offensively given his situation. Given his injury history, it is amazing he was able to do what he did with so much development time missed.

Now here is the fun part, last year in 41 games he had 37 shots with a 5.4 sh%. In the AHL this year he has 40 shots in 16 games with an 18.5 sh%. It could be percieved that he carried momentum from the playoffs and improved his shot in the offseason (many posters have mentioned this in Albany camp). If he were to stay healthy and even put up 150 shots in the NHL with 9 sh% what sort of value does he hold as a center in the NHL, given that his defense is near upper echelon.

Prediction - 14 goals, 28 assists in 82 games

Is that good enough for a 2nd line center?
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#2 thefiestygoat

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Posted 28 November 2012 - 04:23 PM

Interesting, thanks for posting that. Hopefully he really did improve his shot and can become the 2nd line center. I'd be fine with those projected numbers when you factor in his quality defensive game.

I hadn't seen FenHARO+, FenHARD+ and FenHART+ yet so here is a glossary if anyone else needs it.
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#3 Jas0nMacIsaac

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Posted 28 November 2012 - 04:29 PM

We are sort of lucky with this lockout, it may save quite a bit of money in contract negotiations with Henrique and Josefson. I really think Josefson was in breakout territory this year.
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#4 ATLL765

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Posted 28 November 2012 - 04:38 PM

Since it is a slow season for hockey talk I was doing some research on Jacob Josefson to see where he was at the age of 20 and 21. The more stats I dig up the more I think he will be an underappreciated forward similar to Elias.

!!!!!Stat Alert!!!!!

Last season when looking at FenHARO+, FenHARD+ and FenHART+ at 5on5 close and 5on5 tied, it is amazing how well he did in a semi-small sample size. His offense is usually around expected value but his defense is among the best in the NHL. FenHARD+ when tied, he is tops in the NHL by a large amount, teams just don't get any shots directed towards the next when he is on the ice. Keep in mind this is QOC and zonestart adjusted

150 min FenHART+ 5on5 tied - 1st
200 min FenHART+ 5on5 close - 14th

Even with below average shots taken he was around average offensively given his situation. Given his injury history, it is amazing he was able to do what he did with so much development time missed.

Now here is the fun part, last year in 41 games he had 37 shots with a 5.4 sh%. In the AHL this year he has 40 shots in 16 games with an 18.5 sh%. It could be percieved that he carried momentum from the playoffs and improved his shot in the offseason (many posters have mentioned this in Albany camp). If he were to stay healthy and even put up 150 shots in the NHL with 9 sh% what sort of value does he hold as a center in the NHL, given that his defense is near upper echelon.

Prediction - 14 goals, 28 assists in 82 games

Is that good enough for a 2nd line center?


It's close, but not enough for me. I'd like to see 20-25G 30-40A over a full season from him before we can anoint him as Elias' replacement on the 2nd line. If not, I would be more than satisfied seeing him used on the 3rd line, but with bigger mins than the average 3rd liner, as he'll see time on the 1st PK eventually, if he doesn't regress.
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#5 GorillaBiscuits

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Posted 28 November 2012 - 04:39 PM

Interesting, thanks for posting that. Hopefully he really did improve his shot and can become the 2nd line center. I'd be fine with those projected numbers when you factor in his quality defensive game.

I hadn't seen FenHARO+, FenHARD+ and FenHART+ yet so here is a glossary if anyone else needs it.


A 42 point 2nd line center isn't going to cut the mustard, even as a quality defensive player. Not on this team as currently constructed.
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#6 Jas0nMacIsaac

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Posted 28 November 2012 - 04:55 PM

A 42 point 2nd line center isn't going to cut the mustard, even as a quality defensive player. Not on this team as currently constructed.


In 2003 New Jersey won with Nieuwendyke as their 2nd line center with 45 points in 82 games. He wasn't exactly known for excellent defensive play.

In 1995 Carpenter was on 32 point pace for 82 games and NJ won the stanley cup.

I would feel confident lining Josefson up against a lot of 2nd lines in the NHL with him getting the better of them.

Edited by Jas0nMacIsaac, 28 November 2012 - 04:56 PM.

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#7 Triumph

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Posted 28 November 2012 - 05:00 PM

As I've said, I don't like the classification of 1st line/2nd line/3rd line. Scott Reynolds formerly of Copper and Blue and now of NHLNumbers has done work on this and he's shown that the differences aren't as stark as one might think, plus there's the issue of usage - some teams give their '1st line' hard minutes, others try to give them softer ones. Effectively, to me what you're asking is can Josefson generate enough shots and be effective enough on the power play to merit 17 minutes or so a game, and I suspect the answer is yes. However, adjusting for zone starts is a tricky business and Josefson has been given easy competition and easy zone starts.

I don't trust David Johnson's stuff - he has unusual ideas about the way numbers and hockey go together - so to that end I don't trust FenHARD+ and the like.

I actually think the Devils are almost unlucky wrt the timing of this lockout and Henrique and Josefson - both players will have so little to go on that they will only sign 2 year deals, probably, at a time when the Devils should be wanting them to sign for longer given their long-term outlook.
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#8 Jas0nMacIsaac

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Posted 28 November 2012 - 05:08 PM

As I've said, I don't like the classification of 1st line/2nd line/3rd line. Scott Reynolds formerly of Copper and Blue and now of NHLNumbers has done work on this and he's shown that the differences aren't as stark as one might think, plus there's the issue of usage - some teams give their '1st line' hard minutes, others try to give them softer ones. Effectively, to me what you're asking is can Josefson generate enough shots and be effective enough on the power play to merit 17 minutes or so a game, and I suspect the answer is yes. However, adjusting for zone starts is a tricky business and Josefson has been given easy competition and easy zone starts.


For the sake of conversation, I use "2nd line" terms. I think in minutes as well. I believe Josefson can handle 17 minutes, 2nd toughest ES minutes at 45% zone start. If we are talking about 2013-14 I would give him toughest 45% zone start, something like Kopitar is getting. This obviously can't be done with Clarkson on his RW so hense, I bring up the "2nd line" terms again.

I don't trust David Johnson's stuff - he has unusual ideas about the way numbers and hockey go together - so to that end I don't trust FenHARD+ and the like.


I don't trust his theories but I high doubt he would manipulate his stats, I trust he has broken down the offensive and defensive portions of fenwick accurately.

I actually think the Devils are almost unlucky wrt the timing of this lockout and Henrique and Josefson - both players will have so little to go on that they will only sign 2 year deals, probably, at a time when the Devils should be wanting them to sign for longer given their long-term outlook.


I still think NJ signs Josefson and Henrique to 3 or 4 year contracts. 4/8 for Josefson and 4/14 for Henrique
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#9 GorillaBiscuits

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Posted 28 November 2012 - 05:17 PM

In 2003 New Jersey won with Nieuwendyke as their 2nd line center with 45 points in 82 games. He wasn't exactly known for excellent defensive play.

In 1995 Carpenter was on 32 point pace for 82 games and NJ won the stanley cup.

I would feel confident lining Josefson up against a lot of 2nd lines in the NHL with him getting the better of them.


That was a different era of hockey, though. In 2003, Grant Marshall was playing on the 1st line at times and Pascal Rheaume as a regular in the lineup. in 1995, they rode lightning in a bottle with Neal Broten, who was no where near a top 3 forward or top 6 to a playoff spot and cup.

In 2013, a 42 point 2nd line center on a team with no offensive depth hoping for a playoff spot/Cup run isn't something i'd feel comfortable with. This team needs offense and sending a defensive player up into an offensive spot in the lineup can't be something to pin hopes on. It's bad enough i think we're going to see them think Steve Bernier and Ryan Carter are 3rd liners.

Edited by GorillaBiscuits, 28 November 2012 - 05:21 PM.

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#10 Jas0nMacIsaac

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Posted 28 November 2012 - 05:21 PM

That was a different era of hockey, though. In 2003, Grant Marshall was playing on the line at times and with Pascal Rheaume as a regular. in 1995, they rode lightning in a bottle with Neal Broten, who was no where near a top 3 forward or top 6 to a playoff spot and cup.

In 2013, a 42 point 2nd line center on a team with no offensive depth hoping for a playoff spot/Cup run isn't something i'd feel comfortable with and neither should they. Defensively, no doubt, but this kid isn't going to produce enough offense to put him at 2.


Different era? I doubt average scoring is much different from 2003 then what this year was expected to be.

Edit:
2003 - 5.309
2012 - 5.320

When you have Henrique, Kovalchuk, Elias and Zubrus as your wingers I don't feel that bad. Next year is a long way away to fill in 3rd line holes, especially starting with Clarkson.

Edited by Jas0nMacIsaac, 28 November 2012 - 05:25 PM.

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#11 Triumph

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Posted 28 November 2012 - 05:23 PM

Different era? I doubt average scoring is much different from 2003 then what this year was expected to be.

Edit:
2003 - 5.309
2012 - 5.320


When you adjust for shootouts producing fake goals it's not different at all, although some of the rise can be attributed to save percentage increases due to decreased power plays. In short, people saying 'The game has changed' are wrong - you can't just own the front of the net anymore, but shot suppression is alive and well in today's NHL and the Devils are still one of the best at it.
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#12 GorillaBiscuits

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Posted 28 November 2012 - 05:25 PM

Different era? I doubt average scoring is much different from 2003 then what this year was expected to be.

Edit:
2003 - 5.309
2012 - 5.320


You're not going to beat teams in 2013 with a defensive center with a 40 point ceiling. In 1995 the Devils could with their system. The 2003 team was just coached magnificently with a system that worked nearing the end of the trap era.

Ask yourself if they'd have won a round sans Parise with Josefson as a second line center last Spring.
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#13 SMantzas

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Posted 28 November 2012 - 05:27 PM

That projection looks an awful lot like Sam Gagner. The question is, who considers Gagner to be a second line center? Granted, Josefson plays better defense, while Gagner is probably more offensively gifted.

Jason, are you lobbying for Josefson to be the second line pivot next year? Ideally, we re-sign Zajac and shift Henrique to wing. I wouldn't mind going with Zajac-Josefson-Elias down the middle in 13-14. But the only question is- can JJ take on the toughs?
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#14 Triumph

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Posted 28 November 2012 - 05:30 PM

I don't trust his theories but I high doubt he would manipulate his stats, I trust he has broken down the offensive and defensive portions of fenwick accurately.


From that glossary I don't know what those stats would mean, and so I don't know how much weight he's giving things.

I still think NJ signs Josefson and Henrique to 3 or 4 year contracts. 4/8 for Josefson and 4/14 for Henrique


2 years for each. I might've said more for Henrique but this injury puts him out of the most optimistic NHL return dates. Lou does not often reward players who've played 150 NHL games with 4 year contracts, it's unfortunately something not in his bag of tricks. Zajac got a 5 year deal, but he had played 3 full NHL seasons before that happened. I also think Josefson and Henrique don't have incentive to sign 4 year deals because of that.
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#15 Jas0nMacIsaac

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Posted 28 November 2012 - 05:31 PM

You're not going to beat teams in 2013 with a defensive center with a 40 point ceiling. In 1995 the Devils could with their system. The 2003 team was just coached magnificently with a system that worked nearing the end of the trap era.

Ask yourself if they'd have won a round sans Parise with Josefson as a second line center last Spring.


He is 21 years old, why would 40 points be his ceiling? Swedes have been known to be late bloomers in terms of offense. I don't know, will Florida still run 50% on the PP?
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#16 Triumph

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Posted 28 November 2012 - 05:32 PM

You're not going to beat teams in 2013 with a defensive center with a 40 point ceiling. In 1995 the Devils could with their system. The 2003 team was just coached magnificently with a system that worked nearing the end of the trap era.

Ask yourself if they'd have won a round sans Parise with Josefson as a second line center last Spring.


They very well could have. This isn't the NBA - a team that's worse wins rounds all the time. I don't care about points, I care about what Josefson is bringing to the team, and if he and his linemates can beat difficult 2nd line competition, then the Devils come out ahead there.

Chicago uses Dave Bolland in the role that I would envision Josefson taking, although I don't think DeBoer believes in using players the same way that Joel Quennville does.
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#17 Jas0nMacIsaac

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Posted 28 November 2012 - 05:47 PM

From that glossary I don't know what those stats would mean, and so I don't know how much weight he's giving things.



2 years for each. I might've said more for Henrique but this injury puts him out of the most optimistic NHL return dates. Lou does not often reward players who've played 150 NHL games with 4 year contracts, it's unfortunately something not in his bag of tricks. Zajac got a 5 year deal, but he had played 3 full NHL seasons before that happened. I also think Josefson and Henrique don't have incentive to sign 4 year deals because of that.


A two year deal is terrible, I would have to think Josefson and Henrique would be near peak offensively by that time and arbitrators/agents will use that to max a 5 year type deal.
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#18 Triumph

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Posted 28 November 2012 - 06:04 PM

A two year deal is terrible, I would have to think Josefson and Henrique would be near peak offensively by that time and arbitrators/agents will use that to max a 5 year type deal.


Agreed, but that's what the Devils did with Mark Fayne, and now while his UFA status is up in the air due to changing rules, they decided to max out their value now. I don't see why he wouldn't do it with two guys who haven't 'proven' they are NHL players yet.
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#19 njd3b1ink

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Posted 28 November 2012 - 06:46 PM

Agreed, but that's what the Devils did with Mark Fayne, and now while his UFA status is up in the air due to changing rules, they decided to max out their value now. I don't see why he wouldn't do it with two guys who haven't 'proven' they are NHL players yet.

Henrique isnt an NHL player? I get that hes only played 1 season, but he showed that he can score big goals, penalty kill against the other teams best, and play with the best of the best. A lot of players just cant keep up with an ilya kovalchuk on their line. But he showed he can not only play but compliment the play style of the best.
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#20 Triumph

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Posted 28 November 2012 - 08:35 PM

Henrique isnt an NHL player? I get that hes only played 1 season, but he showed that he can score big goals, penalty kill against the other teams best, and play with the best of the best. A lot of players just cant keep up with an ilya kovalchuk on their line. But he showed he can not only play but compliment the play style of the best.


I had proven in quotes - I agree that Henrique is an NHL player. What I'm saying is that I don't think the Devils will be willing to risk 4 years on him. And I'm not really sure why.
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