50 replies to this topic

[thefiestygoat]

Let Swisher, Chavez, and Martin walk

A-Rod being A-Rod

Granderson gets hurt

Teixeira gets hurt

 

It's going to be a long year...

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

Even the Yankees have long years occasionally.  To their credit, the Yankees have always put all of the resources at their disposal into trying to stay away from so much as one lean year, but it's impossible to avoid that forever. 

[thefiestygoat]

Even the Yankees have long years occasionally.  To their credit, the Yankees have always put all of the resources at their disposal into trying to stay away from so much as one lean year, but it's impossible to avoid that forever. 

Impossible yes, but I'd give Hal Steinbrenner a F for his effort to improve or even keep the team at the same level this offseason.

[nmigliore]

The Yanks traded for Vernon Wells and are reportedly picking up about $13M of his remaining tab over the next 2 years... yet they let Russell Martin, who is clearly a better player and better addresses an area of need, walk for a little more than that?

You guys certainly still have more to play for than the Mets do, so maybe I have no room to talk, but between the strange offseason and the injuries, I don't think many Yankee fans are too pleased about how 2013 is shaping up.

Edited by nmigliore, 24 March 2013 - 07:02 PM.

[thefiestygoat]

I don't know what Hal Steinbrenner is thinking. This offseason has been so outrageous.

[Daniel]

I don't know what Hal Steinbrenner is thinking. This offseason has been so outrageous.

If you're referring to Vernon Wells, to be fair, this wasn't part of the original plan. And, if the Angels are picking up a lot of his salary, it might turn out better than you expect.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD

[thefiestygoat]

If you're referring to Vernon Wells, to be fair, this wasn't part of the original plan. And, if the Angels are picking up a lot of his salary, it might turn out better than you expect. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD

All the reports say the Yankees will owe Wells $13M over 2 years which is horrendous. I mean when I heard of the trade earlier today I figured the Yankees would end up owing less than $8M. Somehow a multi year deal for productive players like Swisher and Martin can't happen but Hal (I refuse to believe Cashman has full control anymore) will throw money at has beens like Wells and Ichiro while punting the C position completely. I wrote this to some friends earlier today:

 

I can't believe they are going to pay Wells $13M over 2 years, yet they decided to drastically downgrade at catcher because Hal was too cheap to give Martin 2/$17M. Hell, it's ridiculous they'll spend $26M on Ichiro and Wells but not give Swisher a fair contract while he is still above average offensively and defensively. Swisher's deal with the Indians pays him the same $26M over those same 2 years and he's much more valuable. It's not even like his 4/$56M was unfair.

 

I'd rather Ronnier Mustelier have a chance over wasting money on Wells. The $13M the Yankees will owe Wells and Ichiro in 2014 would be much better spent going to Cano.

 

Of course I'll watch every game since that's all I've done since I was a kid but there is absolutely nothing intriguing about this team. They suck, won't make the playoffs, and it's a ton of old guys who will bounce around the DL all year. It's not even like it's one of those young, underdog teams that can go on an exciting streak.

Edited by thefiestygoat, 25 March 2013 - 12:17 AM.

[Daniel]

If you're referring to Vernon Wells, to be fair, this wasn't part of the original plan. And, if the Angels are picking up a lot of his salary, it might turn out better than you expect. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD
All the reports say the Yankees will owe Wells $13M over 2 years which is horrendous. I mean when I heard of the trade earlier today I figured the Yankees would end up owing less than $8M. Somehow a multi year deal for productive players like Swisher and Martin can't happen but Hal (I refuse to believe Cashman has full control anymore) will throw money at has beens like Wells and Ichiro while punting the C position completely. I wrote this to some friends earlier today:

I can't believe they are going to pay Wells $13M over 2 years, yet they decided to drastically downgrade at catcher because Hal was too cheap to give Martin 2/$17M. Hell, it's ridiculous they'll spend $26M on Ichiro and Wells but not give Swisher a fair contract while he is still above average offensively and defensively. Swisher's deal with the Indians pays him the same $26M over those same 2 years and he's much more valuable. It's not even like his 4/$56M was unfair.

I'd rather Ronnier Mustelier have a chance over wasting money on Wells. The $13M the Yankees will owe Wells and Ichiro in 2014 would be much better spent going to Cano.

Of course I'll watch every game since that's all I've done since I was a kid but there is absolutely nothing intriguing about this team. They suck, won't make the playoffs, and it's a ton of old guys who will bounce around the DL all year. It's not even like it's one of those young, underdog teams that can go on an exciting streak.

The world will be a much better place when WAR goes the way of Zubaz pants.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD

[Sik02gt]

Let Swisher, Chavez, and Martin walk
A-Rod being A-Rod
Granderson gets hurt
Teixeira gets hurt
 
It's going to be a long year...

after all of the above I'm really having my doubts for the yanks this season as well... But who knows.

[thefiestygoat]

The world will be a much better place when WAR goes the way of Zubaz pants. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD

Use any traditional/basic metric or advanced metric and Vernon Wells still sucks...as well as a Cervelli/Stewart tandem behind the plate. This offseason has been mind boggling.

I can't link properly from the computer I am on but the New York Daily News has apparently found out that through some fancy accounting, the Wells deal may not hurt, and could possibly help the Yankees in 2014 against the luxury threshold. I've read so many conflicting reports on the CBA so who knows if this is true. Here is what they said:

http://www.nydailyne...ticle-1.1298453

That means the Yankees will pay Wells $13 million over the next two years, but some fancy accounting could actually make it so the three-time All-Star doesn't count against the team's luxury tax payroll figure at all in 2014 — or even better, earn them a credit.

Wells' seven-year, $126 million contract carries an average annual value of $18 million, which is the figure that is used by MLB for luxury tax purposes. That figure decreases based on the money being paid by another team, so if the Yankees were to split the $29 million evenly, it would leave them with a $3.5 million tax figure on Wells' deal in each of the two seasons.

But according to a source, the Yankees are expected to pay Wells about $12 million in 2013, leaving the Angels to pick up the other $9 million. That means that the Angels would pay $20 million of Wells' $21 million salary next year, not only erasing the entire $18 million luxury tax figure for the Yankees, but adding a $2 million credit.

I'll be able to stomach this deal if they are getting a credit, though I'm still not thrilled about the decisions that have been made this offseason.

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

Use any traditional/basic metric or advanced metric and Vernon Wells still sucks...as well as a Cervelli/Stewart tandem behind the plate. This offseason has been mind boggling.

I can't link properly from the computer I am on but the New York Daily News has apparently found out that through some fancy accounting, the Wells deal may not hurt, and could possibly help the Yankees in 2014 against the luxury threshold. I've read so many conflicting reports on the CBA so who knows if this is true. Here is what they said:

http://www.nydailyne...ticle-1.1298453I'll be able to stomach this deal if they are getting a credit, though I'm still not thrilled about the decisions that have been made this offseason.

 

Last two years for Wells have been atrociously bad.  OB%s well below .300, which is very hard to do...can't imagine watching a guy like that on a daily basis...must feel like he NEVER gets on base.  Tells you how desperate the Yankees are to get ANY bat in the lineup. 

[Daniel]

Use any traditional/basic metric or advanced metric and Vernon Wells still sucks...as well as a Cervelli/Stewart tandem behind the plate. This offseason has been mind boggling.
I can't link properly from the computer I am on but the New York Daily News has apparently found out that through some fancy accounting, the Wells deal may not hurt, and could possibly help the Yankees in 2014 against the luxury threshold. I've read so many conflicting reports on the CBA so who knows if this is true. Here is what they said:http://www.nydailyne...icle-1.1298453I'll be able to stomach this deal if they are getting a credit, though I'm still not thrilled about the decisions that have been made this offseason.

Last two years for Wells have been atrociously bad. OB%s well below .300, which is very hard to do...can't imagine watching a guy like that on a daily basis...must feel like he NEVER gets on base. Tells you how desperate the Yankees are to get ANY bat in the lineup.

No argument that Wells sucks. And baseball is the sport that is most appropriate for statistical analysis, and some of the non-traditional stats like OPS are very informative.

WAR is just an attempt by stat nerds to find the next thing. It also doesn't help that WAR is whatever some contrarian gadfly wants it to be. The very premise that you can calculate how many wins one player is worth, tells you that WAR is snake oil. As has been quipped about string theory, it isn't even wrong.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

I like what WAR is trying to represent, but my only problem with it is that it seems to fluctuate with each player from site to site, depending on where you look it up..I wish it was a little more concrete.  What's good about it is, when broken down, it can help ascertain a player's offensive AND defensive worth, as far as wins go.  It's not perfect, but if even you're not a born-again sabes guy, the various sabes that are becoming more and more commonly known can help flesh out both the traditional and non-traditional numbers.     

[nmigliore]

I like what WAR is trying to represent, but my only problem with it is that it seems to fluctuate with each player from site to site, depending on where you look it up..I wish it was a little more concrete.  What's good about it is, when broken down, it can help ascertain a player's offensive AND defensive worth, as far as wins go.  It's not perfect, but if even you're not a born-again sabes guy, the various sabes that are becoming more and more commonly known can help flesh out both the traditional and non-traditional numbers.

For position players, that's mostly because B-Ref and Fangraphs use a different defensive metric for the defense value. They may even use slightly different positional adjustments but I'm not completely sure since I almost never use their WAR. For pitchers it's a little more complicated; B-Ref uses earned runs as it's core while Fangraphs uses FIP. There are merits for each but I've always preferred Fangraphs' system. Although both are meant to be a description of what happened during the year, I think you'll get a better picture of a pitcher's actual talent level using the FIP-based WAR.

I should also mention Fangraphs has added an actual runs-based WAR to their pitcher player pages, it's called "RA9 Wins", and a metric like that is more helpful when trying to nail down the value of a guy who always beats his peripherals, such as Jered Weaver or Matt Cain, or for a pitcher skillset FIP doesn't work for, like a knuckleballer (R.A. Dickey). In other words, for a pitcher who has a long history of beating or underperforming their peripherals, that's when I'd look to RA9 Wins, otherwise you're better off relying on the FIP-based WAR.

EDIT: The two also use a different replacement level baseline, which I didn't even know about. Funny enough, a few days after this discussion, they are unifying into one, set baseline.

Edited by nmigliore, 28 March 2013 - 10:43 AM.

[Daniel]

I like what WAR is trying to represent, but my only problem with it is that it seems to fluctuate with each player from site to site, depending on where you look it up..I wish it was a little more concrete. What's good about it is, when broken down, it can help ascertain a player's offensive AND defensive worth, as far as wins go. It's not perfect, but if even you're not a born-again sabes guy, the various sabes that are becoming more and more commonly known can help flesh out both the traditional and non-traditional numbers.

I like some of the non traditional stats for baseball. I think OPS is excellent. And maybe the stuff or at least some of the stuff that makes up WAR is helpful as well. But the whole is much less than the sum of its parts. It is a metaphysical impossibility to predict how many wins one player gives you, so don't use a lot of smoke and mirrors to pretend that you can.

Fielding especially is something that you need a pair of eyeballs to measure. Is there a stat that measures how good an outfielders arm is and how many runners don't try to advance because of it, and whether those runners are Brett Gardner or Travis Haffner? I know some people claim they can, but really it's a lot of sound and fury. Sometimes there are certain things in life and in sports that can't be valued quantitatively. "I don't know" is a perfectly good explanation sometimes.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD

[Onddeck]

just what the we need... another aging player that cant hit .250

[thefiestygoat]

I always feel weird calling OPS a non-traditional stat. I mean, I get why people do, but it is just the addition of 2 of the most basic stats. I'm just nitpicking.   Anyway I think it's more meaningful to use wOBA or wRC+ than OPS or OPS+ as this article outlines.

No doubt you need a pair of eyes to judge defense and stats like UZR are not close to perfect - infact I dislike a lot of the fielding metrics compared to their strong offensive counterparts. One problem I have though with judging a player by observation is guys like Torrii Hunter and Curtis Granderson can make these amazing highlight reel catches that are often a result of them taking a poor route or making a bad read on a ball and being fortunate enough to bail themselves out now and then. Thus people tend overrate guys like that and not notice the small misplays they make on a game to game basis.

It would be awesome if something like Field f/x was public like Pitch f/x. Here is a great article from 2011 on it:

Fully operational FIELDf/x camera systems will be installed in five stadiums by the end of this season and hopefully all 30 by 2012. Here’s an excerpt from Rob’s article describing FIELDf/x:

FIELDf/x will manifestly and forever revolutionize the evaluation of defense. In fact, I will venture that the defensive metrics in use today, whether by John Dewan or Sean Smith or David Pinto or Mickey Lichtman or anyone else, will in five years seem nearly as primitive as range factor does today. Because with FIELDf/x, we’ll know not just (approximately) where the baseball went and whether it was caught and who caught it (or didn’t). We’ll know exactly where the ball went and exactly how long it took a fielder to arrive and exactly how he got there. All the talk about range and getting a good jump and taking a good route — it won’t be just talk anymore. There will be cold, hard data for every bit of it.

 

[thefiestygoat]

The average of 5 different projection systems has the Yankees finishing 3rd in the AL East with 85 wins, giving them a 18.6% chance at the division and 34.7% chance at a playoff spot.

CAIRO projects the Yankees to finish 3rd in the AL East with 85 wins, giving them a 17.8% chance at the division and 35.3% chance at a playoff spot.

ZiPS projects the Yankees to finish 4th in the AL East with 83 wins, giving them a 29.7% chance at a playoff spot.

[thefiestygoat]

I'm cautiously optomistic now that Cano has fired Boras and signed with Jay-Z's sports group. Before my gut was telling me he was 50/50 to come back but now I think they have a strong chance of reaching an extension with him even though it's technically against team policy. They broke it for him before and I expect them to do the same again given how bleak the future looks at the moment.

 

Not going to lie, when I first saw the headline this morning, I thought it was a late April fool's joke.

[Onddeck]

wow.

 

14 runs? we went 12 for 15 with 2 outs.  

Robbi with 2 doubles and a hr.

 

yanks went OFF tonight. i would have given it a 0% chance this lineup could do that

Edited by Onddeck, 09 April 2013 - 08:49 PM.