595 replies to this topic

[nmigliore]

With pitchers and catchers reporting and the first spring workout happening in a couple of days, it seems like an appropriate time to fire up a new thread.

This is basically how the roster shakes out right now:

Starting Position Players
C: John Buck
1B: Ike Davis
2B: Daniel Murphy
SS: Ruben Tejada
3B: David Wright
LF: Lucas Duda
CF: Kirk Nieuwenhuis
RF: Mike Baxter

Bench
C: Anthony Recker
INF: Justin Turner
INF: ?
OF: Collin Cowgill
OF: ?

Starting Rotation
SP: Johan Santana
SP: Jon Niese
SP: Matt Harvey
SP: Shaun Marcum
SP: Dillon Gee

Bullpen
RP: Frank Francisco
RP: Bobby Parnell
RP: Brandon Lyon
RP: Josh Edgin
RP: Scott Atchison
RP: Pedro Feliciano
RP: LaTroy Hawkins

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Michael Bourn remains a possibility, so he could throw a wrench into that current outfield situation. But as of right now, I'd expect those three lefties to be the starters vs RHP with Cowgill and the other backup outfielder playing vs LHP. That other outfielder, who will be also be a righty, is likely going to be Marlon Byrd or Andrew Brown. Zach Lutz is going to see some time in the outfield this spring, which is probably a terrible idea, so he could be an option as well; for now though, Byrd and Brown are the easy favorites to battle it out for that final bench spot.

That other utility infielder role will be a competition between Hicks, Valdespin, and maybe Quintanilla. Hicks and Valdespin have the advantage of being on the 40-man already and Hicks is out of options, which may give him the bench spot by default. Hicks is also a true backup shortstop, which Terry Collins likes to have on his roster, for whatever reason. If it were up to me, I'd give Lutz that utility infielder spot and let him spot Ike vs tough LHP, play some DH in interleague games, and just act as a solid bat off the bench. Lutz isn't a player you really want in the field often, but Turner has shown he can cover you at 3B, 2B, and SS in a pinch. There shouldn't be a need to carry a "true" shortstop who may not hit a lick.

The starting rotation, barring any injuries, is set. Moving on...

The bullpen looks pretty set too. There's some health concerns there with Feliciano and Atchison, but if healthy, I think both make the team (as they should, especially in Atchison's case). Maybe Hawkins loses out to one of the internal options like Greg Burke, but for the most part, I think the bullpen is pretty set.

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With all of these veteran relievers brought in on minor league deals, there will need to be some 40-man roster activity at the end of spring training, so that should be interesting. If they don't make the team, relievers like Greg Burke, Elvin Ramirez, and maybe even Rob Carson could be on the chopping block. After that, it gets a little trickier. There could be up to 4 or 5 newcomers that they'll need to make room for when all is said and done.

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Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA projections are out and their depth chart standings are pretty surprising, as they have the Mets down for 80 wins, which would miss the 2nd wild card spot by just 4 games. They aren't a fan of the CF situation either, so adding Bourn could make up that difference.

With that said, there's no doubt that's a highly optimistic outlook. I have them as something around a 72-win team right now, and other projection systems like ZiPS and CAIRO aren't any more enthused about the 2013 team than I am.

----

I can't wait until the first spring training game happens; February 23rd, a Saturday, vs the Nats at 12-noon, which should be broadcasted on SNY. And a little more than a month from then, the season- and home-opener on April 1st vs the Padres will be upon us. There's also the World Baseball Classic that will be going on in March. Oh thank goodness for the return of baseball!

I'm looking forward to many of the young arms on the farm taking a step forward. The St. Lucie and Savannah rotations, in particular, are going to be very intriguing. Hopefully some bats begin to emerge; a solid full-season debut from Brandon Nimmo would help in that regard, though he is still far off. Flores is the closest to the Majors and should find Las Vegas to his liking, but I have no idea where he's going to play when he comes up here. And then there are the star prospects like Wheeler and d'Arnaud who will hopefully making a seamless transition to the Majors.

I'm looking forward to another season with the typical crew here -- 7, Hasan, CR, Devil Dose, whoever else I'm missing. I can't believe it's been like 6 years since we started these threads, it sure doesn't seem like that long.

Anyway, anything can happen in baseball, so let's just enjoy the season and whatever it brings (hopefully good things!). LETS GO METS!

Edited by nmigliore, 11 February 2013 - 12:35 PM.

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

Sadly, but fairly, this sounds about right...72 wins.  We all know this is hopefully the last of the rebuilding years, and that better times lie ahead, hopefully starting with 2014.  But we're all just going to have to wait a little longer.

 

If Wright is going to have a down year, this is probably the year to have it.  He'll hear some boo birds if does, but it shouldn't hurt the Mets too much.

[NJDevs4978]

I was floored when I heard pitchers and catchers reporting, especially after the miserable winter weather this weekend. Some of the Spring Training games might have more buzz than the regular season given the kids likely being spotlighted then.

What IS the deal with Bourn anyway, are the Mets waiting on a ruling for the compensation? I'm surprised Bourn hasn't signed anywhere yet.

[nmigliore]

What IS the deal with Bourn anyway, are the Mets waiting on a ruling for the compensation? I'm surprised Bourn hasn't signed anywhere yet.

Andy Martino wrote last night that there hasn't been any discussion between the union and the league, yet Nick Cafardo conflicted that report this morning by saying a union executive has been in talks with the league about it. So, who knows. Supposedly the talks between the union and the league may not become substantive until the Mets are close to signing Bourn, if it ever happens.

I'm still very doubtful this whole thing happens but if the Mets can walk away with keeping their 1st round pick and sign Bourn to a reasonable 3- or 4-year deal, I'll be very happy. That's pretty much the best case scenario for the Mets.

Edited by nmigliore, 11 February 2013 - 12:47 PM.

['7']

Nice analysis as usual.

 

I agree with you on 72 wins...and perhaps if things don't break right we'll be looking at 67-68. 80 is way too generous for this club

 

Still, the bullpen is at least looking competent this year. I expect them to be middle of the road. 

 

The starting staff will take a huge hit with the loss of Dickey, but I expect a decent 2/3rds of the season from Marcum before he's pawned off for prospects (hopefully he does real well and lands us a good outfield prospect)

 

Buck, Duda, Nieuwenhuis, Wright, Davis...man are we going to strike out alot. The home runs will come, but a lot of K's as well. Very little speed on this team too. 

 

I'm sort of 50/50 on Bourn. Do we really want to invest so much in a guy who's going to be on the wrong side of 30 soon, and has little to no power, whose speed may begin to erode? Bourn would maybe make the 2013 72 win mets a 76 win team. His real value would be to the 2014 team when we would actually try and compete for a wild card.

Edited by '7', 11 February 2013 - 01:19 PM.

[nmigliore]

Nice analysis as usual.

 

I agree with you on 72 wins...and perhaps if things don't break right we'll be looking at 67-68. 80 is way too generous for this club

 

Still, the bullpen is at least looking competent this year. I expect them to be middle of the road. 

 

The starting staff will take a huge hit with the loss of Dickey, but I expect a decent 2/3rds of the season from Marcum before he's pawned off for prospects (hopefully he does real well and lands us a good outfield prospect)

 

Buck, Duda, Nieuwenhuis, Wright, Davis...man are we going to strike out alot. The home runs will come, but a lot of K's as well. Very little speed on this team too. 

 

I'm sort of 50/50 on Bourn. Do we really want to invest so much in a guy who's going to be on the wrong side of 30 soon, and has little to no power, whose speed may begin to erode?

 

I

 

Bourn scares me on a long-term deal but with how little attention he's gotten on the market, it seems very possible he'll have to settle for a 3 year deal. That's not bad since it only covers his age 30, 31, and 32 seasons. That's part of the decline phase, but it's a lot different than, say, 32 through 35, which is what Chone Figgins was signed for. Bourn has never been a great hitter -- you'll take if it he's just league average -- but he's one of the best baserunners and fielders relative to position in the game, maybe the best in each category. It's also been proven that fast/speed guys age the best, for what it's worth.

Edited by nmigliore, 11 February 2013 - 01:31 PM.

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

Nice analysis as usual.

 

I agree with you on 72 wins...and perhaps if things don't break right we'll be looking at 67-68. 80 is way too generous for this club

 

Still, the bullpen is at least looking competent this year. I expect them to be middle of the road. 

 

The starting staff will take a huge hit with the loss of Dickey, but I expect a decent 2/3rds of the season from Marcum before he's pawned off for prospects (hopefully he does real well and lands us a good outfield prospect)

 

Buck, Duda, Nieuwenhuis, Wright, Davis...man are we going to strike out alot. The home runs will come, but a lot of K's as well. Very little speed on this team too. 

 

I'm sort of 50/50 on Bourn. Do we really want to invest so much in a guy who's going to be on the wrong side of 30 soon, and has little to no power, whose speed may begin to erode? Bourn would maybe make the 2013 72 win mets a 76 win team. His real value would be to the 2014 team when we would actually try and compete for a wild card.

Bourn would be a 2014 move...like nmig just pointed out, at 31, he should still be pretty good overall.   

 

Yeah, once Dickey was traded, you knew the Mets were punting on 2013, but it's hard to argue that strategy, especially since the return on Dickey was so good.  2014 could be a nice, 80-to-89 win, isn't this team kind of fun and interesting kind of year.  2013 is going to be rough, in a we-can't-wait-'till-it's-over kind of way.  But hopefully we see growth and a little Zack Wheeler thrown in. 

[NJDevs4978]

And predictably, Bourn is not a Met - four years, $48 million to Cleveland with a vesting option for a fifth year at another $12 million. Supposedly we were his top choice but we didn't offer the vesting year, and we didn't push the draft pick ruling along fast enough...oh well.  I don't know where they're going to get outfielders from between now and next year, but Sandy's going to have to get creative.  

[nmigliore]

I'm not so sure the Mets would've caved in with an option, nor am I sure the Mets would've won the draft pick ruling in the first place, which may have made this all moot, but the fact they waited so long to bring up the draft pick issue absolutely burned them. Ugh.

[nmigliore]

Jon Heyman claims Drew Stubbs could become trade bait as a result of the Indians signing Bourn. He makes more sense for them to keep and platoon with Brantley in LF, but if Cleveland is really content with Brantley as an everyday player, the Mets should be on Stubbs. Obviously Stubbs was terrible last year but he comes with strong career splits vs LHP, great baserunning skills, youth, and multiple years of control. He's a great fit on this roster. He looks like a flawed player trending in the wrong direction, but when you look deeper, there are some assets there and he can be a pretty valuable roster piece if those assets are utilized properly.

Edited by nmigliore, 11 February 2013 - 11:07 PM.

['7']

Yea this sucks, the Mets had a deal in place but were too worried to even chance losing the pick...they should've just bitten the bullet and taken a damn chance. Stop being such scaredy-cats. Where else are you finding an outfielder?

 

Bourn would've made the 2013 Mets a bit easier to stomach, but this is not on the magnitude of losing out on an Ichiro(allowed Seattle to outbid us) or Vlad Guerrero(too worried of bad back...but hey let's try 600lb Mo Vaughn!). We'll get over it.

Edited by '7', 12 February 2013 - 12:11 AM.

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

Yeah, so now the Mets might win in the low 70s instead of the mid or upper 70s.  Oh well...

[nmigliore]

I'm disappointed, but this move is still probably for the best. I think the Mets would've lost the draft pick ruling anyway and giving up the pick would've really hurt the draft, not just because it's the 11th overall pick but they'd also be giving up the bonus pool allotment that goes with that pick. Their first pick wouldn't be until 47th overall and their bonus pool would drop from 10th highest to one of the lowest in the league. That's a real kick in the nuts to having a successful draft.

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

It's 2014 and beyond where we'll be tougher graders.  If there's someone out there that can clearly help the Mets become a better team, and it seems like they're halfwaying it or not really going for it the way they should be able to (which they have occasionally done, despite some high payrolls), the Wilpons are going to start to hear about it.  I think Mets fans sense something good is close, and because of that, they are willing to give the franchise a pass on not trying to do much to make the 2013 Mets better, and are willing to muck through this year.  But patience will have run out come 2014.

[nmigliore]

Francisco has already been shut down with elbow inflammation and Collins doesn't expect him to throw any time soon. In his absence, he's anointed Parnell as the closer, thankfully. 

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

Francisco has already been shut down with elbow inflammation and Collins doesn't expect him to throw any time soon. In his absence, he's anointed Parnell as the closer, thankfully. 

 

Big year for Parnell.  I know Francisco has money coming to him, but this should now be Parnell's chance to say, "Yes, I can really do this, I can come into a game and finish it out and not have Met fans biting their nails!"  As nervous as he made most Met fans last season, his numbers were good overall (buoyed by a nice late Sep-Oct run that gave him a better H to IP ratio that he's shown in the past).  He is 28 years old.  The Mets should find out if he can be the closer of the next 3-5 years. 

['7']

I think the best role for Parnell is as a 7th or sometimes 8th inning guy coming in after a soft tosser. I don't think he has the nerves of steel to close. Plus the fastball has never had any movement on it.

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

I think the best role for Parnell is as a 7th or sometimes 8th inning guy coming in after a soft tosser. I don't think he has the nerves of steel to close. Plus the fastball has never had any movement on it.

 

I would agree, but like I said, this is the year to find that out for sure. 

[nmigliore]

Parnell has posted an ERA and FIP under 3 in two of the last three seasons. That's really good. Maybe he'll struggle in the 9th inning, but at the very least, he deserves an extended look. I have zero doubt he's better than Frank Francisco, who would be closing games if healthy.

[nmigliore]

Cue the first setback: Johan won't pitch until mid-March.

If not for the Opener, I could still see him being ready for the 3rd or 4th game of the year on this current mid-March timetable, but who really knows how this will play out; it sure seems like a setback, one way or the other, and that date seems more tentative than a "hard" one. Maybe it will mean something or maybe it will mean nothing. We'll see what happens.

Edited by nmigliore, 22 February 2013 - 10:56 AM.