595 replies to this topic

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

I can't get too bent out of shape about Santana, mostly because I don't think he fits into the "new" Mets when they start to (hopefully) contend anyway in 2014 and beyond.  The guy is clearly an injury risk at this point, so it's not like you'd dare count on him for any real contributions.  It would be great if he pitched well enough to garner attention at the trading deadline though.  If the Mets clear his contract (though I'm sure they'll have to pick up some of it, if not most of it) and get a decent prospect for him, they'll have done well, all things considered. 

[nmigliore]

It doesn't mean much but David Wright is dominating in the WBC for Team USA and is getting some much-deserved national recognition. Good for him. He's been dubbed "Captain America" by Matt Vasgersian, I love it.

Edited by nmigliore, 12 March 2013 - 11:00 PM.

[NJDevs4978]

Too bad Wright had to be scratched from the quarterfinal with a bad back/oblique.  With our luck he'll be out several weeks

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

Too bad Wright had to be scratched from the quarterfinal with a bad back/oblique.  With our luck he'll be out several weeks

 

Sadly, that would not come as a surprise to anyone.  I know I'm worried about it.

[nmigliore]

It's an intercostal strain, which seems to be a common injury in Metsville lately. He'll supposedly take 3-5 days to rest and evaluate from there but he'll probably miss about a month, so don't expect him to be ready for Opening Day.

Edited by nmigliore, 15 March 2013 - 03:12 PM.

[NJDevs4978]

lol what else is new.  I'm not blaming this on the WBC though, Wright's not a pitcher.  You can adapt to the WBC as a hitter, you're going to get your AB's and fielding time in Spring Training anyway.

[nmigliore]

If he only misses 2 weeks worth of games, it's not that bad. Turner isn't amazing but he's been about a league average hitter at the plate the last couple of years, so he's a pretty adequate fill-in.

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

We know the story with this year's team...they weren't winning much WITH Wright, and this is only Year 1 of a long-term deal.  If they take it extra-careful with Wright, that's the right way to go...even if it means the Mets could be out of it by the end of April (they will be by mid-season anyway).  Mets punted on 2013 a long time ago...no need to try to rush Wright back until he's 100%. 

[NJDevs4978]

Are we all going to try an NJDevs meet at Citi this year? Probably would be best if we did it early in the season before the weather gets hot, though right now it doesn't seem like it'll ever warm up lol

I generally go on Saturday afternoons when I do go these days.

[nmigliore]

Lots of injuries have been popping up. Murphy hasn't even played a game all spring and could be out longer than Wright, who is questionable to be ready for the start of the season. It's March 21st and Santana still hasn't thrown off a mound in a game yet. It's pretty much impossible to guess when he might return until he actually gets into a game and builds up the pitch count, but this long delay doesn't look too good right now. Turner, likely the starting 3B in Wright's absence, hurt his ankle the other day but seems fine and could return to game action tomorrow. Kirk Nieuwenhuis is just coming back from a knee injury but it's up in the air whether he makes the team or not. Marcum just received a cortisone shot in his pitching shoulder; supposedly it's not a big deal but you still have to be concerned considering his injury history.

Anyway, probably time for an updated roster guess.

Starting Position Players (I'm going to operate under the assumption that Wright and Murphy open the year on the DL)
C: John Buck
1B: Ike Davis
2B: Jordany Valdespin
SS: Ruben Tejada
3B: Justin Turner
LF: Lucas Duda
CF: Collin Cowgill
RF: Marlon Byrd

Bench
C: Anthony Recker
INF: Zach Lutz
INF: Omar Quintanilla
OF: Mike Baxter
OF: Kirk Nieuwenhuis

Starting Rotation
SP: Jon Niese
SP: Shaun Marcum
SP: Matt Harvey
SP: Dillon Gee
SP: Jeremy Hefner

Bullpen (Assuming Francisco opens the year on the DL)
RP: Bobby Parnell
RP: Brandon Lyon
RP: Josh Edgin
RP: Scott Atchison
RP: Pedro Feliciano
RP: LaTroy Hawkins
RP: Greg Burke

Once Wright and Murphy return I'd expect Turner to return to his utility infielder role, probably displacing Lutz, and Valdespin to platoon with Cowgill in CF, which probably pushes Kirk (or whomever gets that final outfield bench spot) to AAA.

Byrd has pretty much won the starting RF job, unfortunately. I mean, he was pretty good in 2010-2011, but I wouldn't be surprised if he was finished at this point. We'll see. If Byrd does fall on his face, I'd expect Baxter to work himself into playing time in RF vs RHP (he probably deserves to be out there now over Byrd, but whatever).

The pitching staff hardly changes from my previous prediction. Santana will start the year on the DL and Hefner will take his place; this is pretty set in stone already. Hefner isn't going to blow anybody away but if he can throw strikes and keep the ball in the park, he should be fine. The larger question is how long Santana will be out for, and as I mentioned above, that's anybody's guess right now. The cortisone shot to Marcum is concerning but there's no indication he won't be ready to start the season (for now, anyway).

The only change to the bullpen is Francisco going to the DL and Greg Burke, a side-arming reliever on the 40-man roster whose had a good spring, taking his spot. TC has already stated the Mets will carry 2 lefty relievers; alongside Edgin, Feliciano still seems like the favorite despite diminished stuff but don't surprised if they decide on Robert Carson over him, which would save a 40-man cut.

That above roster would require 5 spots to be opened up on the 40-man; Hicks-for-Quintanilla would be one. Elvin Ramirez, Reese Havens, and Cesar Puello are all pretty vulnerable. It gets trickier after that. Gonzalez Germen or, if he doesn't make the team, Robert Carson, could be on the chopping block.

Aside: it would be nice to see the Mets make a play for outfielder Casper Wells. He's out of options and looks like the odd-man out on Seattle's roster and he'd be a fantastic fit here; he's a bit like a younger, better-defensive Cody Ross. Hopfully Sandy gives Jack Z a call.

Edited by nmigliore, 21 March 2013 - 11:14 AM.

[Devils Pride 26]

This has all the potential to be one of the worst teams of all time. One of the worst opening day lineups of all time, that's for sure

[nmigliore]

This has all the potential to be one of the worst teams of all time. One of the worst opening day lineups of all time, that's for sure

 

Thanks to the Marlins, they probably aren't the worst team in their division (let alone the entire league). Injuries like this can make this team more of a sub-70 win team than a 70-75 win, so yeah, either way it's probably not going to be pretty. Historically bad though? 100+ losses is hard to do and there are a handful of teams projected to be worse than the Mets this year, so I don't see that happening. Regarding the lineup, check 2010's for some humor. It was pretty terrible. 

Edited by nmigliore, 21 March 2013 - 12:34 PM.

[NJDevs4978]

Yeah plus it's hard to think the outfield or the bullpen could possibly be any worse than last year.  The pen'll probably be marginally better by accident if nothing else.  The outfield is still a huge question mark but at least the Mets aren't running a .210 Jason Bay out there every day.  Obviously starting pitching will be worse for the moment since they don't have Dickey or a first-half Santana this year, though a full season of Harvey 'can' offset it to a degree, especially if you can get a healthy Gee/Marcum too.  Offensively, you would also hope Ike doesn't have a black hole two months again and can be a bit more consistent this year and at least they get some punch from the catching position.

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

70 wins seems like it's as good as it's going to get, with the injury issues, though I see that lineup and it feels more like 65-68. This year ain't about wins and losses though. 

[NJDevs4978]

Wright officially named captain, Niese officially named opening day starter.  And Santana 'at least' a month away, now that he'll need three weeks before even knowing whether he can throw off a mound.

[nmigliore]

Seems like Murphy and Wright are progressing well, with Wright taking BP the other day and Murphy getting some at bats in a minor league game. It sounds like there's at least a chance both could be ready by Opening Day, and if not, maybe only miss a handful or so games. That's good.

Pedro Feliciano has been told he's not making the team. Like I said the other day, this shouldn't be terribly surprising since his stuff was way down and the Mets can save a 40-man cut by going with Carson instead. I was pulling for Pedro but this is probably the right call.

LaTroy Hawkins has been told he's made the team, as expected. Brandon Hicks was outrighted, so Quintanilla presumably wins a roster spot as a utility infielder and should take his place on the 40-man soon.

So overall, we're looking at three players to make room for on the 40-man (excluding Quintanilla): Hawkins, Atchison (who is all but a lock to make the bullpen), and Byrd. The Mets can avoid a cut by placing Santana on the 60-day DL, which makes good sense. Elvin Ramirez and Reese Havens seem like the obvious player cuts.

Edited by nmigliore, 25 March 2013 - 12:18 PM.

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

Admittedly, I can't get too excited about 2013, from a team standpoint.  But I am looking forward to seeing what Niese, Harvey, and hopefully Wheeler can do, as well as Travis D'Arnaud.  Will Parnell finally start to be less hittable, like he showed towards the end of last season?   

 

I've said it before, and maybe the fact that Met fans aren't expecting much for 2013 will help his cause, but if Wright looks like he did for much of the last two seasons (save for last year's out-of-nowhere first half), how long before the fans turn on him, and the "contract albatross" comments start? 

 

Anybody here read Piazza's autobio (Long Shot)?  I bought it last Wednesday, and admittedly I skipped to the part where he was traded from the Dodgers to the Marlins, then from the Marlins to the Mets, and read over his Mets career.  Some interesting stuff:

 

He hated the short time he was on the Marlins.  Basically said no one outside of Cliff Floyd gave a sh!t. 

The booing he endured during his first season as a Met really got to him (he had issues with RISP, despite hitting for a high average as a Met overall).  He even told his dad he didn't care anymore at one point.     

He comes off as a guy who wants you to believe that he isn't afraid of confrontation, but deep down really is. 

He said that Todd Hundley was cordial to him, which Piazza thought was commendable under the circumstances.  I had forgotten, but poor Hundley had apparently been told repeatedly by the Mets that they weren't interested in Piazza, that Todd was their catcher for the forseeable future, blah blah blah.  Piazza did say they almost got into a fight on a plane after Hundley had a few too many drinks, but that it died down before it got overly physical. 

 

He wants to go in as a Met, mostly because he felt like the Met organization and Met fans appreciated him much more than the Dodger franchise and fans did.  He said the Dodgers forever made it feel like they did HIM a favor by drafting him and giving him his first shot, no matter what Piazza did as a Dodger.  He also said he greatly appreciated the cheers he got in his final season as Met, even as he struggled mightily compared to previous seasons.  He pointed out that it was funny, that in his first season as a Met, he felt like he was getting undeserved boos, and in his last, undeserved cheers.  I got the impression his time in New York was much like a marriage where the partners love each other dearly, but sometimes get into brutal arguments.  He enjoyed it, but it was tough on him at the same time. 

 

And last, he enjoyed his one season in San Diego a lot...he said it was what he needed after almost eight full seasons in New York.  He didn't like his time in Oakland much at all, mostly because they kept him on the DL five weeks after he was ready to play. 

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976, 25 March 2013 - 03:53 PM.

[NJDevs4978]

I kinda lost some interest in reading Piazza's auto when he apparently decided to pick a fight with Vin Scully (according to one excerpt), or think Scully was out to get him during some contract negotiation lol.

 

But the comment about undeserved boos followed by undeserved cheers is pretty perceptive.  I guess if you stay in one place long enough it evens out.  Beltran kinda went through the same thing too although the 2006 NLCS Game 7 lengthened his rocky relationship with the fans.  Only his last year did they really take to him I think.

[nmigliore]

Fangraphs has been doing a position-by-position power ranking series and they are using a combination of Steamer and ZiPS for the 2013 projections; they have Wright down for an .824 OPS, which would make him close to a 5-win player with average defense. I'd gladly sign up for that.

I have a few other baseball books I'm trying to get through so I haven't bought it yet, same goes for R.A. Dickey's book.

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

I kinda lost some interest in reading Piazza's auto when he apparently decided to pick a fight with Vin Scully (according to one excerpt), or think Scully was out to get him during some contract negotiation lol.

 

But the comment about undeserved boos followed by undeserved cheers is pretty perceptive.  I guess if you stay in one place long enough it evens out.  Beltran kinda went through the same thing too although the 2006 NLCS Game 7 lengthened his rocky relationship with the fans.  Only his last year did they really take to him I think.

 

I'd have to double-check, but he came off sounding like he almost felt like Scully was kind of attacking him in an interview.  The contract situation with the Dodger made the fans turn on him.