Jump to content

Photo

Official 2013 New York Mets Thread


  • Please log in to reply
1814 replies to this topic

#1141 nmigliore

nmigliore

    A Legend

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 13,223 posts

Posted 28 July 2013 - 09:07 PM

On a positive note, very nice job by Syndergaard tonight: 6 IP, 1 hit, 1 run, 0 BB, 8 K. And he accomplished that with just 59 pitches, presumably removed to limit his innings. One poster on a Mets board who was in attendance said he was sitting mid-90's. 

 

Cesar Puello also continues to tear it up; he drew a walk in the first game and then went 3-for-4 with a double in the second. The walks are particularly encouraging - he's drawn 12 in the month of July; he drew 15 total in the first three months. I'm glad the Mets have kept him in AA despite the fantastic numbers, because the pitch recognition really needed improving. Nice to see some progress. 


  • 0
LETS GO METS
LETS GO DEVILS

"Take all that clubhouse [expletive] and all that, throw it out the window. Every writer in the country has been writing about that [expletive] for years. Chemistry don't mean [expletive]."

- Jim Leyland

#1142 Colorado Rockies 1976

Colorado Rockies 1976

    A Legend

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 10,948 posts

Posted 29 July 2013 - 06:12 AM

What a disaster...Torres did fine his first couple of starts working his way out of trouble, but his luck has run out...this guy is an asset in the pen though. Let's put him back where he belongs

 

Torres is a 30-year-old journeyman who was having a solid season at Vegas and got a chance here only because of guys like Marcum and Niese getting hurt, and the true gems being not quite ready yet.  To his credit, he's done well overall with the opportunity (like Satin), but I don't think he figures much into the Mets' plans beyond this season...like you say, maybe he gets a shot as a bullpen/swingman type, but I'm guessing the Mets would rather find someone better for that role. 

 

Re:  Syndergaard...July 17 was his only real "meh" start in AA...the other 5 AA starts he's made have been decent to terrific (he had a brief 2 IP pre-ASG appearance that I'm not counting).  Really looking good for him getting some AAA starts this season, unless he tanks.   

 

Sucks to lose three games in a row when they were playing well for a while, but so be it...if anything, it could be a blessing in disguise, in that hopefully Sandy isn't entertaining thoughts of keeping Byrd and others that might have anywhere from minimal to decent trade value.  This season should be not trying to win 76 games instead of 70 or something along those lines.  


  • 0
THE NHL MUST LOVE THE DEVILS - from who else? A RANGER fan!
[Mark Messier]: A big, bald attention whore with a stupid Easter Island-lookin face. - from who else? DaneykoIsGod!

Even when Marty comes back maybe Larry should put Clemmensen to be on the goal during the shootouts.
Can the coach do that ? Switch the goalies 5 seconds to go in overtime?
- Most priceless quote ever posted on a message board.

Martin Brodeur: THE MOST ALL-TIME WINS!, 12 straight seasons of 30+ wins, 3 Stanley Cups, 4 Vezina Trophies, and zero respect from too many so-called Devils "fans" who are either too young or too bandwagon to remember the much darker days of Sean Burke, Craig Billington, Bob Sauve, Alain Chevrier, and the talented but overwhelmed Chico Resch, among many others.

It's easy to support a great player when he's playing at his very best. It takes a true fan to support that same player during those rare moments and stretches when he's not. Babe Ruth went 0-4 some games, and sometimes Wayne Gretzky was held pointless. There may be such a thing as greatness, but no such thing as absolute perfection every single night.

#30 FOREVER!

20 out of 1,946 njdevs.com members agree: CR1976 is the Most Knowledgable Poster of 2008! Victory is mine...oh yes, victory is mine!

#1143 Colorado Rockies 1976

Colorado Rockies 1976

    A Legend

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 10,948 posts

Posted 29 July 2013 - 06:28 AM

BTW D'Arnaud is FINALLY playing again...4 games in the Gulf Coast League (rookie).  Nice numbers but it's well below the level of competition D'Arnaud is used to seeing.  Even if he doesn't come up for a while, hopefully Sandy will try to move John Buck.  I can't see Buck bringing back anything significant...he's still owed a fair amount of money and though the HR/RBI numbers look good for a catcher, I'm sure GMs have done their homework, and realize his numbers were built off that insane first 10 games...the guy was as invisible as an everyday player can be for over 2 months.  I'm guessing the Mets might be able to get a lower-level, decent prospect if they pay most of Buck's remaining salary. 

 

This being said, I think Sandy is probably not going to be aggressive in trying to trade Buck, in that he probably thinks it would be nice for D'Arnaud to have a mentor when he comes up, and obviously D'Arnaud's health has got to be a concern.  I'm guessing Buck is almost a certainty to be here beyond the deadline, but I hope Sandy at least kicks the tires to see what's out there. 


Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976, 29 July 2013 - 06:28 AM.

  • 0
THE NHL MUST LOVE THE DEVILS - from who else? A RANGER fan!
[Mark Messier]: A big, bald attention whore with a stupid Easter Island-lookin face. - from who else? DaneykoIsGod!

Even when Marty comes back maybe Larry should put Clemmensen to be on the goal during the shootouts.
Can the coach do that ? Switch the goalies 5 seconds to go in overtime?
- Most priceless quote ever posted on a message board.

Martin Brodeur: THE MOST ALL-TIME WINS!, 12 straight seasons of 30+ wins, 3 Stanley Cups, 4 Vezina Trophies, and zero respect from too many so-called Devils "fans" who are either too young or too bandwagon to remember the much darker days of Sean Burke, Craig Billington, Bob Sauve, Alain Chevrier, and the talented but overwhelmed Chico Resch, among many others.

It's easy to support a great player when he's playing at his very best. It takes a true fan to support that same player during those rare moments and stretches when he's not. Babe Ruth went 0-4 some games, and sometimes Wayne Gretzky was held pointless. There may be such a thing as greatness, but no such thing as absolute perfection every single night.

#30 FOREVER!

20 out of 1,946 njdevs.com members agree: CR1976 is the Most Knowledgable Poster of 2008! Victory is mine...oh yes, victory is mine!

#1144 Colorado Rockies 1976

Colorado Rockies 1976

    A Legend

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 10,948 posts

Posted 29 July 2013 - 07:05 AM

Satin is now 5 for his last 28, with 8 BB and 12 K in that time.  One 2B hit and no RBI.  He wasn't going to keep hitting .382, and maybe word's gotten out on him, but I'm sure rotating between pinch-hitting and starting hasn't helped his cause. 

 

Ike continues to be very meh since coming back:  12-for-53, 8 RS, .226 BA, .359 OB%.  About the only thing that can be said in his favor is that he's been more selective and a bit better at laying off crap pitches (reflected in the improved BB-to-K ratio, and increased walks), but he's still been frustratingly useless otherwise.  He's slugging .321 since coming back, and .272 on the season.  His .680 OB+SLG since his recall only feels slightly passable because it's better than the .541 OB+SLG he's put up for the season.  It's scary AND sad how far he's fallen.  Basically his season can be described as "sucked royally until he was sent down, now sucking less but still sucking now that he's back."   


Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976, 29 July 2013 - 07:06 AM.

  • 0
THE NHL MUST LOVE THE DEVILS - from who else? A RANGER fan!
[Mark Messier]: A big, bald attention whore with a stupid Easter Island-lookin face. - from who else? DaneykoIsGod!

Even when Marty comes back maybe Larry should put Clemmensen to be on the goal during the shootouts.
Can the coach do that ? Switch the goalies 5 seconds to go in overtime?
- Most priceless quote ever posted on a message board.

Martin Brodeur: THE MOST ALL-TIME WINS!, 12 straight seasons of 30+ wins, 3 Stanley Cups, 4 Vezina Trophies, and zero respect from too many so-called Devils "fans" who are either too young or too bandwagon to remember the much darker days of Sean Burke, Craig Billington, Bob Sauve, Alain Chevrier, and the talented but overwhelmed Chico Resch, among many others.

It's easy to support a great player when he's playing at his very best. It takes a true fan to support that same player during those rare moments and stretches when he's not. Babe Ruth went 0-4 some games, and sometimes Wayne Gretzky was held pointless. There may be such a thing as greatness, but no such thing as absolute perfection every single night.

#30 FOREVER!

20 out of 1,946 njdevs.com members agree: CR1976 is the Most Knowledgable Poster of 2008! Victory is mine...oh yes, victory is mine!

#1145 Colorado Rockies 1976

Colorado Rockies 1976

    A Legend

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 10,948 posts

Posted 29 July 2013 - 10:56 AM

Jose Veras acquired by the Tigers from Houston.  Of interest because, if you think the Mets would trade Parnell based on a strong offer coming in, this is one less destination:

 

http://espn.go.com/m...ose-veras-trade

 

Take this for what it's worth, but I can totally see Passive & Co. fvcking this up:

 

http://www.sbnation....rnell-or-marlon

 

I can understand keeping Parnell if no fair offers come in, but Byrd?  For WHAT?!  To feel good about a potentially good second half (which could derail anyway, even with Byrd)?  He is 35 years old who is having a career year!  This could be an incredible bonus for the Mets...he was basically a Sandy scrap-heap hold-the-fort-for-2013 guy who's somehow paying off dividends no one saw coming (including Sandy...face it Sandy, you got flat-out LUCKY on this one...this was not some stroke of genius).  He actually has trade value, and will never be worth more than he is right now!  He may not bring a ton back, but so what...what is Sandy going to do, give him a one or two-year deal to stay?  If yes, that seems risky as hell, as he is hardly a lock to repeat this season.  If no, Sandy's going to keep him here so the Mets can feel good about having an outside shot at 80 wins?

 

This just seems soooooooo stupid to me...stupid, pointless, short-sighted, etc.  Marlon Byrd is actually worth something as a nice, almost free (in terms of money owned) rental to teams needing a bat.  I am going to be beyond pissed if he is a Met post-deadline.       


Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976, 29 July 2013 - 11:08 AM.

  • 0
THE NHL MUST LOVE THE DEVILS - from who else? A RANGER fan!
[Mark Messier]: A big, bald attention whore with a stupid Easter Island-lookin face. - from who else? DaneykoIsGod!

Even when Marty comes back maybe Larry should put Clemmensen to be on the goal during the shootouts.
Can the coach do that ? Switch the goalies 5 seconds to go in overtime?
- Most priceless quote ever posted on a message board.

Martin Brodeur: THE MOST ALL-TIME WINS!, 12 straight seasons of 30+ wins, 3 Stanley Cups, 4 Vezina Trophies, and zero respect from too many so-called Devils "fans" who are either too young or too bandwagon to remember the much darker days of Sean Burke, Craig Billington, Bob Sauve, Alain Chevrier, and the talented but overwhelmed Chico Resch, among many others.

It's easy to support a great player when he's playing at his very best. It takes a true fan to support that same player during those rare moments and stretches when he's not. Babe Ruth went 0-4 some games, and sometimes Wayne Gretzky was held pointless. There may be such a thing as greatness, but no such thing as absolute perfection every single night.

#30 FOREVER!

20 out of 1,946 njdevs.com members agree: CR1976 is the Most Knowledgable Poster of 2008! Victory is mine...oh yes, victory is mine!

#1146 NJDevs4978

NJDevs4978

    A Legend

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 23,888 posts

Posted 29 July 2013 - 11:25 AM

Even if you want to re-sign Byrd (which considering the Mets' lack of OF'ers I wouldn't be opposed to) I don't see why trading him precludes you from re-signing him either. You could get the best of both worlds really.
  • 0
"The Devils have high standards, that's the difference. We have a standard to live up to every year, and a couple of teams in our area don't have the standards we do." - Pat Burns

The New Jersey Devils win Stanley Cups everywhere:
-NHL record for most road wins in the playoffs - 10-1 in '95 and 10-2 in '00
-NHL record for most home wins in the playoffs - 12-1 in '03

#1147 Colorado Rockies 1976

Colorado Rockies 1976

    A Legend

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 10,948 posts

Posted 29 July 2013 - 11:36 AM

Even if you want to re-sign Byrd (which considering the Mets' lack of OF'ers I wouldn't be opposed to) I don't see why trading him precludes you from re-signing him either. You could get the best of both worlds really.

 

I've said the same thing on here as well, a few times.  It's the best of both worlds for Marlon too.  If he really likes being with the Mets, he can go be a rental for a couple of months and be in a playoff race, then come back...I still think it's a risky move on the part of the Mets (bringing him back), but like we all know, it's not like outfield is the Mets' strong suit right now. 

 

I think Byrd on the Mets next year could be the equivalent of RA Dickey on the Blue Jays, in terms of performance returns.  I think the Mets should probably sell high and be thankful they got as much as they did out of Byrd.


Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976, 29 July 2013 - 11:56 AM.

  • 0
THE NHL MUST LOVE THE DEVILS - from who else? A RANGER fan!
[Mark Messier]: A big, bald attention whore with a stupid Easter Island-lookin face. - from who else? DaneykoIsGod!

Even when Marty comes back maybe Larry should put Clemmensen to be on the goal during the shootouts.
Can the coach do that ? Switch the goalies 5 seconds to go in overtime?
- Most priceless quote ever posted on a message board.

Martin Brodeur: THE MOST ALL-TIME WINS!, 12 straight seasons of 30+ wins, 3 Stanley Cups, 4 Vezina Trophies, and zero respect from too many so-called Devils "fans" who are either too young or too bandwagon to remember the much darker days of Sean Burke, Craig Billington, Bob Sauve, Alain Chevrier, and the talented but overwhelmed Chico Resch, among many others.

It's easy to support a great player when he's playing at his very best. It takes a true fan to support that same player during those rare moments and stretches when he's not. Babe Ruth went 0-4 some games, and sometimes Wayne Gretzky was held pointless. There may be such a thing as greatness, but no such thing as absolute perfection every single night.

#30 FOREVER!

20 out of 1,946 njdevs.com members agree: CR1976 is the Most Knowledgable Poster of 2008! Victory is mine...oh yes, victory is mine!

#1148 Colorado Rockies 1976

Colorado Rockies 1976

    A Legend

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 10,948 posts

Posted 29 July 2013 - 12:16 PM

BTW, Valdespin is now 9-for-his-last-11 in Vegas.  He's 22-for-44 (yes, a .500 BA) since getting sent down.  1.378 OB+SLG.  22 RBI in 11 GP.  At least the guy can terrorize AAA pitching.  Ike couldn't even do that. 


  • 0
THE NHL MUST LOVE THE DEVILS - from who else? A RANGER fan!
[Mark Messier]: A big, bald attention whore with a stupid Easter Island-lookin face. - from who else? DaneykoIsGod!

Even when Marty comes back maybe Larry should put Clemmensen to be on the goal during the shootouts.
Can the coach do that ? Switch the goalies 5 seconds to go in overtime?
- Most priceless quote ever posted on a message board.

Martin Brodeur: THE MOST ALL-TIME WINS!, 12 straight seasons of 30+ wins, 3 Stanley Cups, 4 Vezina Trophies, and zero respect from too many so-called Devils "fans" who are either too young or too bandwagon to remember the much darker days of Sean Burke, Craig Billington, Bob Sauve, Alain Chevrier, and the talented but overwhelmed Chico Resch, among many others.

It's easy to support a great player when he's playing at his very best. It takes a true fan to support that same player during those rare moments and stretches when he's not. Babe Ruth went 0-4 some games, and sometimes Wayne Gretzky was held pointless. There may be such a thing as greatness, but no such thing as absolute perfection every single night.

#30 FOREVER!

20 out of 1,946 njdevs.com members agree: CR1976 is the Most Knowledgable Poster of 2008! Victory is mine...oh yes, victory is mine!

#1149 Colorado Rockies 1976

Colorado Rockies 1976

    A Legend

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 10,948 posts

Posted 29 July 2013 - 01:20 PM

On a positive note, very nice job by Syndergaard tonight: 6 IP, 1 hit, 1 run, 0 BB, 8 K. And he accomplished that with just 59 pitches, presumably removed to limit his innings. One poster on a Mets board who was in attendance said he was sitting mid-90's. 

 

Cesar Puello also continues to tear it up; he drew a walk in the first game and then went 3-for-4 with a double in the second. The walks are particularly encouraging - he's drawn 12 in the month of July; he drew 15 total in the first three months. I'm glad the Mets have kept him in AA despite the fantastic numbers, because the pitch recognition really needed improving. Nice to see some progress. 

 

Hard for me to get overly excited about a Biogenesis guy in Puello. 


  • 0
THE NHL MUST LOVE THE DEVILS - from who else? A RANGER fan!
[Mark Messier]: A big, bald attention whore with a stupid Easter Island-lookin face. - from who else? DaneykoIsGod!

Even when Marty comes back maybe Larry should put Clemmensen to be on the goal during the shootouts.
Can the coach do that ? Switch the goalies 5 seconds to go in overtime?
- Most priceless quote ever posted on a message board.

Martin Brodeur: THE MOST ALL-TIME WINS!, 12 straight seasons of 30+ wins, 3 Stanley Cups, 4 Vezina Trophies, and zero respect from too many so-called Devils "fans" who are either too young or too bandwagon to remember the much darker days of Sean Burke, Craig Billington, Bob Sauve, Alain Chevrier, and the talented but overwhelmed Chico Resch, among many others.

It's easy to support a great player when he's playing at his very best. It takes a true fan to support that same player during those rare moments and stretches when he's not. Babe Ruth went 0-4 some games, and sometimes Wayne Gretzky was held pointless. There may be such a thing as greatness, but no such thing as absolute perfection every single night.

#30 FOREVER!

20 out of 1,946 njdevs.com members agree: CR1976 is the Most Knowledgable Poster of 2008! Victory is mine...oh yes, victory is mine!

#1150 '7'

'7'

    A Legend

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 14,346 posts

Posted 29 July 2013 - 04:16 PM

Even if you want to re-sign Byrd (which considering the Mets' lack of OF'ers I wouldn't be opposed to) I don't see why trading him precludes you from re-signing him either. You could get the best of both worlds really.

 

exactly, Byrd absolutely has to be dealt. And yes he likes it here, and says he would welcome an opportunity to be the 4th OF next year...and (according to Francesa anyway) is already recruiting guys for his offseason conditioning program.

 

All well and good...he's still a corner outfielder on pace for 95 rbi's, and he's not exactly 38-39 years old either (or 40 like Ibanez) 

 

I think an organizations top 10 prospect can be had for him if we push it to the wire at the trade deadline and don't budge, and I think we should aggressively pursue him in the offseason as well


  • 0
^7^ is just defending his sport sheeps.. as Alcibiades the exiled Athenian rationalizes in his speech to the enemy Spartans, he wants to take revenge on Athens because he loves it and can't stand to see the state it's in now - Triumph
Posted Image Posted Image

#1151 Colorado Rockies 1976

Colorado Rockies 1976

    A Legend

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 10,948 posts

Posted 29 July 2013 - 07:32 PM

Man...things have really turned on Hef.  He may get through this inning with only one run allowed, but he's laboring big-time. 


fvcking Can't-inilla.  You don't hit enough to screw your team with an error like that.


  • 0
THE NHL MUST LOVE THE DEVILS - from who else? A RANGER fan!
[Mark Messier]: A big, bald attention whore with a stupid Easter Island-lookin face. - from who else? DaneykoIsGod!

Even when Marty comes back maybe Larry should put Clemmensen to be on the goal during the shootouts.
Can the coach do that ? Switch the goalies 5 seconds to go in overtime?
- Most priceless quote ever posted on a message board.

Martin Brodeur: THE MOST ALL-TIME WINS!, 12 straight seasons of 30+ wins, 3 Stanley Cups, 4 Vezina Trophies, and zero respect from too many so-called Devils "fans" who are either too young or too bandwagon to remember the much darker days of Sean Burke, Craig Billington, Bob Sauve, Alain Chevrier, and the talented but overwhelmed Chico Resch, among many others.

It's easy to support a great player when he's playing at his very best. It takes a true fan to support that same player during those rare moments and stretches when he's not. Babe Ruth went 0-4 some games, and sometimes Wayne Gretzky was held pointless. There may be such a thing as greatness, but no such thing as absolute perfection every single night.

#30 FOREVER!

20 out of 1,946 njdevs.com members agree: CR1976 is the Most Knowledgable Poster of 2008! Victory is mine...oh yes, victory is mine!

#1152 nmigliore

nmigliore

    A Legend

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 13,223 posts

Posted 29 July 2013 - 07:47 PM

Some really ugly baseball the last few days.

At least Niese is on his way back with mid-August the target.
  • 0
LETS GO METS
LETS GO DEVILS

"Take all that clubhouse [expletive] and all that, throw it out the window. Every writer in the country has been writing about that [expletive] for years. Chemistry don't mean [expletive]."

- Jim Leyland

#1153 nmigliore

nmigliore

    A Legend

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 13,223 posts

Posted 29 July 2013 - 08:11 PM

LOL yet another loss to Miami in the books. 

 

More sloppy baseball set that up -- Hefner walking a terrible hitter and Young bobbling a ball in LF that let Lucas go 1st to 3rd. 


  • 0
LETS GO METS
LETS GO DEVILS

"Take all that clubhouse [expletive] and all that, throw it out the window. Every writer in the country has been writing about that [expletive] for years. Chemistry don't mean [expletive]."

- Jim Leyland

#1154 '7'

'7'

    A Legend

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 14,346 posts

Posted 29 July 2013 - 08:27 PM

baseball is so maddening, in a year where we've handled the Braves we can't get a single win against the atrocious Marlins. This would be loss #6 in a row

 

Quintanilla can't pick up an easy grounder

 

3-1 count to Wright with 1st and 2nd 0 out...he swings at ball 4 and flies out to Stanton. Then Ike and Byrd hack at pitches outside the zone and make easy outs.

I just hate the Marlins right now. The Ed fvcking Lucas show won't end

 

Good news on Niese though. Curious where his velocity will be


  • 0
^7^ is just defending his sport sheeps.. as Alcibiades the exiled Athenian rationalizes in his speech to the enemy Spartans, he wants to take revenge on Athens because he loves it and can't stand to see the state it's in now - Triumph
Posted Image Posted Image

#1155 nmigliore

nmigliore

    A Legend

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 13,223 posts

Posted 29 July 2013 - 09:29 PM

The Mets STILL can't get Greg Dobbs out. 


  • 0
LETS GO METS
LETS GO DEVILS

"Take all that clubhouse [expletive] and all that, throw it out the window. Every writer in the country has been writing about that [expletive] for years. Chemistry don't mean [expletive]."

- Jim Leyland

#1156 nmigliore

nmigliore

    A Legend

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 13,223 posts

Posted 29 July 2013 - 09:40 PM

Mets win! Boy that was shaping up to be a typical 2013 Mets' debacle vs Miami with Dobbs and Pierre in the middle of things and Stanton coming up with the tying run at 3rd and winning run at 1B. Phew.


  • 0
LETS GO METS
LETS GO DEVILS

"Take all that clubhouse [expletive] and all that, throw it out the window. Every writer in the country has been writing about that [expletive] for years. Chemistry don't mean [expletive]."

- Jim Leyland

#1157 '7'

'7'

    A Legend

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 14,346 posts

Posted 29 July 2013 - 09:42 PM

It's amazing how even when they beat the fish it's still infuriating

 

Parnell somehow owns Stanton though. Hitting 1-9 against him. Meekly grounded out to Murphy

 

Greg Dobbs is a .227 hitter. .364 vs the Mets

 

good rebound effort for the pen


Edited by '7', 29 July 2013 - 09:42 PM.

  • 0
^7^ is just defending his sport sheeps.. as Alcibiades the exiled Athenian rationalizes in his speech to the enemy Spartans, he wants to take revenge on Athens because he loves it and can't stand to see the state it's in now - Triumph
Posted Image Posted Image

#1158 Colorado Rockies 1976

Colorado Rockies 1976

    A Legend

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 10,948 posts

Posted 30 July 2013 - 07:05 AM

In fairness '7', you've got to stop bailing out on the team when they're losing, and automatically giving them a loss when they're trailing.  They're 22-16 in their last 38 GP.  30-27 since May 26.  They've been a reasonably competitive ballclub for a while now...far from great, but it's hard to put up records like those unless you're avoiding prolonged stretches of futility, and for the most part, the Mets have managed to do that...not entirely, but enough, and it's not like they've made some killer trades you can point to as a turning point...basically Passive's made some "what the hell, why not?" deals, some of which haven't worked (Ankiel), some of which have (Byrd, Young).  Point is most of Sandy's moves have been hold-the-fort, low-risk, low-reward-type, and he's actually gotten some nice returns on some of these guys...Passive's given the major-league team minimal support, saddled them with the salami bat that is Ike Davis, and yet, the team has now managed a nice record over their last 38 GP.  Time to give them some credit and respect. 

 

BTW, at quick glance, the Tejada/Quintanilla comparison reveals a Dave Brown-to-Danny Kanell similarity.  Kanell wasn't light years better than Brown, but his Giants started winning when he initially took over, which made it look like he was bringing a little energy/something different to the team.  And I'll admit, though Quintanilla isn't putting up eye-popping numbers, his performance FEELS like it's somehow a lot better than Tejada's, I think mostly because he's been getting on base a good bit more.

 

Tejada:  50 GP, 187 AB, 18 RS, 39 H, 10 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 10 RBI, 14 BB, 23 K, .209 BA, .267 OB%, .262 SLG, .529 OB+SLG

Quintanilla:  51 GP, 182 AB, 21 RS, 42 H, 6 2B, 2 3B, 2 HR, 14 RBI, 25 BB, 38 K, .231 BA, .321 OB%, .319 SLG, .639 OB+SLG 

 

Clearly neither player is lighting it up, but Quintanilla at least finds his way onto the basepaths somewhat, even when he's not really hitting...he's batting .222 for the month of July, but with a solid .357 OB%, and has a 17 BB-to-18 K ratio as well, which is very good.  Tejada flat-out wasn't doing ANYTHING well at the plate.

 

Hef's numbers since the ASB:

 

11.2 IP, 20 H, 19 R, 16 ER, 4 HR, 6 BB, 10 K, 12.71 ERA, 0-2 record 

 

If you're a believer in sabes, there's a formula called FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) that predicted that Hef was due for a regression.  FIP is actually a mathematical formula:

 

FIP = ((13*HR)+(3*(BB+HBP))-(2*K))/IP + constant   (The constant is derived from taking the league-average FIP and subtracting that from league-average ERA).

 

To explain further, this formula measures the events that are deemed to be most under control by the pitcher (strikeouts, walks, hit-by-pitches, and homeruns)...as we all know, some teams field the ball better or worse than others.  Basically, if you're the kind of pitcher that surrenders a lot of home runs and walks/HBPs, then your FIP is likely going to suck, with HRs allowed being the major killer in this formula.  Well, yeah, no sh!t.   

 

I think what it comes down to, is that if you're the kind of guy that's prone to giving up HRs and fly balls, like Hef has been (19 in 119.2 IP), eventually, the solo shots you might be giving up when you're "hot", will eventually become two and three-run shots, which obviously are a lot more damaging.  I think Hef's overall FIP (4.54, considered poor) was hurt a lot by his first four appearances of the season (three starts, one relief)...he gave up 7 HR in his first 14 IP.  He then allowed just 8 HR in his next 94 IP, along with just 20 BB (and 83 K).  I don't have the constant (for the FIP to be accurate, I would have to derive the constant from the period starting April 25 and ending on July 12) to calculate Jeremy's FIP for that period, but suffice it to say his FIP must have been very good for that time frame.  The traditional numbers sure were:

 

15 starts, 94 IP, 79 H, 38 R, 29 ER, 20 BB, 83 K, 8 HR, 2.78 ERA.   

 

Sabes guys claim that FIP is a better predictor of success/failure than is ERA (which is obviously affected by ballpark, team fielding prowess, etc), and I'm not disputing that...but just like ERA, it can sometimes be misleading too.  In the case of Hefner, a lot of what cause his FIP to be shaky were those very bad first four appearances...they had to have dragged down his season FIP significantly, even with the good HR and BB numbers he put up over that 94 IP, 15-start stretch.  Now, out of nowhere, he's having another valley like he did to start the season.

 

What does this mean?

 

If Hefner is able to become a major-league mainstay, I think he may turn out to be a Bronson Arroyo-type...a guy capable of good stretches, but some unbelievably bad bursts (hopefully short-term) that can skewer both his traditional and sabermetric numbers.  Just like Arroyo, I think with the bad with Hef will be very, VERY bad. 

 

If (huge if) Hef can put together 10-15 start strings of mostly good performances (say, with 8-12 of the starts being quality-type) going forward, it will make those WTF?!, three or four disaster games bearable for whatever team employs him (I don't think he's going to be Met beyond 2014, if that long).  It does mean both his ERA and his FIP probably won't ever be impressive over a full season, but you may get some nice stretches of solid performances. 


  • 0
THE NHL MUST LOVE THE DEVILS - from who else? A RANGER fan!
[Mark Messier]: A big, bald attention whore with a stupid Easter Island-lookin face. - from who else? DaneykoIsGod!

Even when Marty comes back maybe Larry should put Clemmensen to be on the goal during the shootouts.
Can the coach do that ? Switch the goalies 5 seconds to go in overtime?
- Most priceless quote ever posted on a message board.

Martin Brodeur: THE MOST ALL-TIME WINS!, 12 straight seasons of 30+ wins, 3 Stanley Cups, 4 Vezina Trophies, and zero respect from too many so-called Devils "fans" who are either too young or too bandwagon to remember the much darker days of Sean Burke, Craig Billington, Bob Sauve, Alain Chevrier, and the talented but overwhelmed Chico Resch, among many others.

It's easy to support a great player when he's playing at his very best. It takes a true fan to support that same player during those rare moments and stretches when he's not. Babe Ruth went 0-4 some games, and sometimes Wayne Gretzky was held pointless. There may be such a thing as greatness, but no such thing as absolute perfection every single night.

#30 FOREVER!

20 out of 1,946 njdevs.com members agree: CR1976 is the Most Knowledgable Poster of 2008! Victory is mine...oh yes, victory is mine!

#1159 nmigliore

nmigliore

    A Legend

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 13,223 posts

Posted 30 July 2013 - 08:36 AM

FIP can also be skewed by league/park effects -- a pitcher posting a 4.00 FIP in San Diego doesn't deserve to be treated the same as a pitcher with a 4.00 FIP in Cincinnati -- which is why I like to look at FIP-, which basically scales a pitcher's FIP versus league average. For example: 100 is average, 105 would be 5% worse than average, 95 would be 5% better, etc. (sort of like an inverse ERA+). And for the record, park/league-adjusted FIP is basically what goes into Fangraphs' WAR for pitchers.

 

There is also xFIP, which basically takes care of the HR problem you're alluding to. Homerun per flyball ratio is a stat that can greatly help or hurt a pitcher's FIP, however, this stat is proven to not be very predictable, so xFIP always regresses a pitcher's HR/FB ratio to league average (usually 9-10%). The amount of homers it predicts a pitcher to give up (or should've gave up) is based on his flyball rate. If two pitchers pitch for the same team and have identical K% and BB% rates, but 50% of one pitcher's batted balls are in the air, and the other pitcher's flyball rate is 40%, the latter pitcher will have a better xFIP (this is why groundballs are very important).

 

Hefner's HR/FB is 14.1%, above the league average, hence his xFIP is lower than his FIP at 4.06, which is far more respectable and once adjusted for parks/league, is closer to league average (108 xFIP-; again, 100 would be average).  

 

There's always going to be exceptions; guys like Matt Cain and Jered Weaver routinely post low HR/FB ratios and thus beat out their xFIP. On the other side of the coin, some guys are just homer prone and consistently post high HR/FB ratios (Brett Myers is a good example). You do need very large samples to really prove this, however, so it's always safer to assume HR/FB regression to league average in most cases.


Edited by nmigliore, 30 July 2013 - 08:59 AM.

  • 0
LETS GO METS
LETS GO DEVILS

"Take all that clubhouse [expletive] and all that, throw it out the window. Every writer in the country has been writing about that [expletive] for years. Chemistry don't mean [expletive]."

- Jim Leyland

#1160 Colorado Rockies 1976

Colorado Rockies 1976

    A Legend

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 10,948 posts

Posted 30 July 2013 - 09:03 AM

xFIP and FIP- seem like more accurate numbers...overall Hef has clearly been slightly above-average...but like I said, if this season is anything to go by (it's probably not, too short of a sample), it looks like Hef's valleys are going to be very statistically damaging.

 

What remains to be seen is if Hef ever has another 15-start burst like this ever again.  If he finishes up this season strong and somewhere in the vicinity of that 15 game stretch, if I'm Sandy, I move him no matter what.  I appreciate what he's done this season, but no way can I sell myself on him on him repeating 2013 in seasons to come. 

 

OOPS, made a mistake...Hef's 108 is actually 8% below average.  Just shows how bad his valleys have killed his numbers. 


Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976, 30 July 2013 - 09:18 AM.

  • 0
THE NHL MUST LOVE THE DEVILS - from who else? A RANGER fan!
[Mark Messier]: A big, bald attention whore with a stupid Easter Island-lookin face. - from who else? DaneykoIsGod!

Even when Marty comes back maybe Larry should put Clemmensen to be on the goal during the shootouts.
Can the coach do that ? Switch the goalies 5 seconds to go in overtime?
- Most priceless quote ever posted on a message board.

Martin Brodeur: THE MOST ALL-TIME WINS!, 12 straight seasons of 30+ wins, 3 Stanley Cups, 4 Vezina Trophies, and zero respect from too many so-called Devils "fans" who are either too young or too bandwagon to remember the much darker days of Sean Burke, Craig Billington, Bob Sauve, Alain Chevrier, and the talented but overwhelmed Chico Resch, among many others.

It's easy to support a great player when he's playing at his very best. It takes a true fan to support that same player during those rare moments and stretches when he's not. Babe Ruth went 0-4 some games, and sometimes Wayne Gretzky was held pointless. There may be such a thing as greatness, but no such thing as absolute perfection every single night.

#30 FOREVER!

20 out of 1,946 njdevs.com members agree: CR1976 is the Most Knowledgable Poster of 2008! Victory is mine...oh yes, victory is mine!




0 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users