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Official 2013 New York Mets Thread


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#1161 nmigliore

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Posted 30 July 2013 - 09:11 AM

I actually think the Arroyo comparison is pretty good for Hefner; both pitchers profile very similarly, from K%, BB%, and groundball rate to their poor splits vs lefties (big sample size differences apply here, of course):

 

Arroyo career: 15.2 K%, 5.7 BB%, 40.4 GB%

Hefner career: 16.9 K%, 6.5 BB%, 44.5 GB%

 

Arroyo career vs LHB: 5.36 FIP, .284/.341/.486 slash line

Hefner career vs LHB: 4.75 FIP, .286/.336/.497 slash line

 

 

-----

 

CR: to be clear, Hefner's season xFIP is not above average. Like I said, it works like an inverse ERA+, so 108 would be 8% WORSE than league average.

 

We'll see what the next 2 months bring but right now Hefner profiles more as a swingman type for me; a good #6 starter who won't hurt you in the rotation if a starter goes down for a 4-6 weeks, but also not someone you're thrilled with if he has to pitch 180+ innings.


Edited by nmigliore, 30 July 2013 - 09:16 AM.

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#1162 Colorado Rockies 1976

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Posted 30 July 2013 - 09:25 AM

I actually think the Arroyo comparison is pretty good for Hefner; both pitchers profile very similarly, from K%, BB%, and groundball rate to their poor splits vs lefties (big sample size differences apply here, of course):

 

Arroyo career: 15.2 K%, 5.7 BB%, 40.4 GB%

Hefner career: 16.9 K%, 6.5 BB%, 44.5 GB%

 

Arroyo career vs LHB: 5.36 FIP, .284/.341/.486 slash line

Hefner career vs LHB: 4.75 FIP, .286/.336/.497 slash line

 

 

-----

 

CR: to be clear, Hefner's season xFIP is not above average. Like I said, it works like an inverse ERA+, so 108 would be 8% WORSE than league average.

 

We'll see what the next 2 months bring but right now Hefner profiles more as a swingman type for me; a good #6 starter who won't hurt you in the rotation if a starter goes down for a 4-6 weeks, but also not someone you're thrilled with if he has to pitch 180+ innings.

 

In bold:  yeah, already saw that, amended my post as such.

 

As far as the Arroyo/Hefner comparison goes, I was thinking more in terms of Arroyo's penchant for having some really REALLY bad starts that tend to hurt his regular season numbers.  Arroyo's clearly hurt further by pitching his home games in Great American Bandbox.   


Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976, 30 July 2013 - 09:29 AM.

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THE NHL MUST LOVE THE DEVILS - from who else? A RANGER fan!
[Mark Messier]: A big, bald attention whore with a stupid Easter Island-lookin face. - from who else? DaneykoIsGod!

Even when Marty comes back maybe Larry should put Clemmensen to be on the goal during the shootouts.
Can the coach do that ? Switch the goalies 5 seconds to go in overtime?
- Most priceless quote ever posted on a message board.

Martin Brodeur: THE MOST ALL-TIME WINS!, 12 straight seasons of 30+ wins, 3 Stanley Cups, 4 Vezina Trophies, and zero respect from too many so-called Devils "fans" who are either too young or too bandwagon to remember the much darker days of Sean Burke, Craig Billington, Bob Sauve, Alain Chevrier, and the talented but overwhelmed Chico Resch, among many others.

It's easy to support a great player when he's playing at his very best. It takes a true fan to support that same player during those rare moments and stretches when he's not. Babe Ruth went 0-4 some games, and sometimes Wayne Gretzky was held pointless. There may be such a thing as greatness, but no such thing as absolute perfection every single night.

#30 FOREVER!

20 out of 1,946 njdevs.com members agree: CR1976 is the Most Knowledgable Poster of 2008! Victory is mine...oh yes, victory is mine!

#1163 nmigliore

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Posted 30 July 2013 - 08:10 PM

Ed Lucas breaks up the no hitter. Of fvcking course, a typical scrub. And now the game is tied at 2-2. Weeeeeeeeee.
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- Jim Leyland

#1164 '7'

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Posted 30 July 2013 - 08:12 PM

I know 1 out in the 7th isn't really close to a no hitter, but if Ed Lucas was on fire I wouldn't pee on him


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^7^ is just defending his sport sheeps.. as Alcibiades the exiled Athenian rationalizes in his speech to the enemy Spartans, he wants to take revenge on Athens because he loves it and can't stand to see the state it's in now - Triumph
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#1165 '7'

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Posted 30 July 2013 - 08:29 PM

Byrd and 3rd zero out....can't even get the fvcking run in


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^7^ is just defending his sport sheeps.. as Alcibiades the exiled Athenian rationalizes in his speech to the enemy Spartans, he wants to take revenge on Athens because he loves it and can't stand to see the state it's in now - Triumph
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#1166 nmigliore

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Posted 30 July 2013 - 08:30 PM

Leadoff triple for Byrd. Mets can't score him, because of course they can't. 

 

This is exactly the kind of game they lose.


Edited by nmigliore, 30 July 2013 - 08:30 PM.

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#1167 '7'

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Posted 30 July 2013 - 08:33 PM

What an a$$hole Qualls is. He didn't get hurt but almost deserved to with that display of douchbaggery


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^7^ is just defending his sport sheeps.. as Alcibiades the exiled Athenian rationalizes in his speech to the enemy Spartans, he wants to take revenge on Athens because he loves it and can't stand to see the state it's in now - Triumph
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#1168 nmigliore

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Posted 30 July 2013 - 09:08 PM

John Buck delivers, 4-2!


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"Take all that clubhouse [expletive] and all that, throw it out the window. Every writer in the country has been writing about that [expletive] for years. Chemistry don't mean [expletive]."

- Jim Leyland

#1169 '7'

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Posted 30 July 2013 - 09:21 PM

Nice play by Murphy in the 10th to rob Mathis of a hit.

 

Strange Wheeler was pulled at 87 pitches...in a 6 man rotation no less. I was expecting Collins to run him out there for 110 or so


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^7^ is just defending his sport sheeps.. as Alcibiades the exiled Athenian rationalizes in his speech to the enemy Spartans, he wants to take revenge on Athens because he loves it and can't stand to see the state it's in now - Triumph
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#1170 nmigliore

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Posted 30 July 2013 - 09:40 PM

Trade deadline is 4 ET tomorrow. I'm going to be so livid if Byrd is still a Met. I totally understand if teams are gun shy considering his out-of-nowhere-season at his age, but I'd still GLADLY take a team's 7th or 10th best prospect, and I'm sure there's at least one outfield-needy contender out there that would give up a #6-10 prospect in their system to take a shot that Byrd can maintain this great year for the stretch run. 


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LETS GO METS
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"Take all that clubhouse [expletive] and all that, throw it out the window. Every writer in the country has been writing about that [expletive] for years. Chemistry don't mean [expletive]."

- Jim Leyland

#1171 Colorado Rockies 1976

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Posted 31 July 2013 - 06:19 AM

Byrd and 3rd zero out....can't even get the fvcking run in

 

I know this is hardly breaking news, but I can't STAND Ike Davis.  Great, he fouled off a lot of pitches when Byrd was on third.  If he was a first or second-year player that was still developing, fine, but I'm not giving him kudos for "silver linings" at this point.  He's in his fourth major-league season, and is currently having his worst year, and an embarrassing one at that...it's like he's an overmatched rookie.  The only thing he's done better since coming back is drawing more walks.  The OB% has been good (.370 since his recall), but he needs to be a threat to deliver in a big spot...all the fvcking guy had to do last night was get a sac fly, hit a well-placed grounder...nope. 

 

He was hitting .161 when he got sent down.  He went 3-for-5 to raise his average to .173 on July 5.  He's raised his BA a whopping .003 since then, to .176.  Awesome.  God I hope the Mets rid themselves of this zilch come the offseason. 

 

 

Trade deadline is 4 ET tomorrow. I'm going to be so livid if Byrd is still a Met. I totally understand if teams are gun shy considering his out-of-nowhere-season at his age, but I'd still GLADLY take a team's 7th or 10th best prospect, and I'm sure there's at least one outfield-needy contender out there that would give up a #6-10 prospect in their system to take a shot that Byrd can maintain this great year for the stretch run. 

 

Sadly, I think Sandy is going to fvck up royally today.  If Byrd was in his early 30s and had a good recent track record, I could understand Sandy being a little hesitant to move him unless the return was significant, but Byrd should be seen as a nice bonus chip...sometimes you get lucky with these "warm body, what the hell, bridge the gap"-types, and clearly the Mets got phenomenally lucky with Byrd.  Strike while the iron's hot...Byrd has value to someone...even if Byrd were to fall flat on his face, he's not going to cost a potential team its top chip, and as far as paying him goes, he's practically FREE.  55-60 games or so and his new team has no commitment beyond that.  You can't ask for a better rental than this...one decent prospect is all it should cost.  And for the love of GOD, if Passive likes Byrd that much and really believes that this year isn't a one-year thing, RE-SIGN HIM IN THE OFFSEASON!  The Mets should have as good a shot as any other team, if he's that important to them. 

 

Unfortunately, I think Passive and the Wilpons somehow think it's important to have "momentum" going into next season.  Wrong, dummies.  You've got young pitching that pretty much ensures the team should be competitive next season, regardless of whether the 2013 team wins 70 games or 80 games.  It's great that this team is 23-16 in their last 39 GP, but is having the chance to finish second in the division with a sub-.500 record really all that important?  Even if the Mets win out the rest of the season at the .590 clip they've shown in their last 39, they'll finish the season with an 82-80 record, and let's face it, that's probably a longshot...not impossible, but definitely a longshot.  Is sacrificing potential helpful pieces of 2014 and beyond worth it for that?  I say no way, but I think Passive and Co. feel differently.  I hope they surprise me, I really do. 


Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976, 31 July 2013 - 06:22 AM.

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THE NHL MUST LOVE THE DEVILS - from who else? A RANGER fan!
[Mark Messier]: A big, bald attention whore with a stupid Easter Island-lookin face. - from who else? DaneykoIsGod!

Even when Marty comes back maybe Larry should put Clemmensen to be on the goal during the shootouts.
Can the coach do that ? Switch the goalies 5 seconds to go in overtime?
- Most priceless quote ever posted on a message board.

Martin Brodeur: THE MOST ALL-TIME WINS!, 12 straight seasons of 30+ wins, 3 Stanley Cups, 4 Vezina Trophies, and zero respect from too many so-called Devils "fans" who are either too young or too bandwagon to remember the much darker days of Sean Burke, Craig Billington, Bob Sauve, Alain Chevrier, and the talented but overwhelmed Chico Resch, among many others.

It's easy to support a great player when he's playing at his very best. It takes a true fan to support that same player during those rare moments and stretches when he's not. Babe Ruth went 0-4 some games, and sometimes Wayne Gretzky was held pointless. There may be such a thing as greatness, but no such thing as absolute perfection every single night.

#30 FOREVER!

20 out of 1,946 njdevs.com members agree: CR1976 is the Most Knowledgable Poster of 2008! Victory is mine...oh yes, victory is mine!

#1172 Colorado Rockies 1976

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Posted 31 July 2013 - 06:33 AM

'7', not surprised Zack got the hook last night, in spite of the pitch count...that 7th was a rough one.  Got the big DP pitch when he needed it. 

 

ERA:  3.55

FIP:  5.17

xFIP:  4.79

 

The above would point to a regression coming, and with the formula for FIP being hard on those on who give up HRs and BBs, easy to see why Zack's FIP is going to be bad (7 HRs and 23 BB allowed in 45.2 IP...those are both bad numbers).  I'm hoping it's more of a case that Zack has enjoyed a lot of good fortune (about as much as anyone could expect) to date, and that, through improvement (he did look terrific for much of yesterday's start), Zack staves off the down period his FIP is practically screaming will be coming.

 

Fow what it's worth, though all of Zack's numbers are puffed up by good luck, his last five starts show some progress (this is admittedly optimistic data snooping on my part):

 

29.2 IP, 24 H, 12 R, 9 ER, 13 BB, 23 K, 4 HR, 3-0 record, 2.73 ERA     


Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976, 31 July 2013 - 06:42 AM.

  • 0
THE NHL MUST LOVE THE DEVILS - from who else? A RANGER fan!
[Mark Messier]: A big, bald attention whore with a stupid Easter Island-lookin face. - from who else? DaneykoIsGod!

Even when Marty comes back maybe Larry should put Clemmensen to be on the goal during the shootouts.
Can the coach do that ? Switch the goalies 5 seconds to go in overtime?
- Most priceless quote ever posted on a message board.

Martin Brodeur: THE MOST ALL-TIME WINS!, 12 straight seasons of 30+ wins, 3 Stanley Cups, 4 Vezina Trophies, and zero respect from too many so-called Devils "fans" who are either too young or too bandwagon to remember the much darker days of Sean Burke, Craig Billington, Bob Sauve, Alain Chevrier, and the talented but overwhelmed Chico Resch, among many others.

It's easy to support a great player when he's playing at his very best. It takes a true fan to support that same player during those rare moments and stretches when he's not. Babe Ruth went 0-4 some games, and sometimes Wayne Gretzky was held pointless. There may be such a thing as greatness, but no such thing as absolute perfection every single night.

#30 FOREVER!

20 out of 1,946 njdevs.com members agree: CR1976 is the Most Knowledgable Poster of 2008! Victory is mine...oh yes, victory is mine!

#1173 nmigliore

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Posted 31 July 2013 - 07:25 AM

I can't believe CR is using FIP and xFIP; I thought I'd never see the day, wow. :P

 

I'm not surprised he's had issues with walks but I expected him to miss more bats - his K% right now is 18.3%; league average is 19.7%. Admittedly, it's stupid to even break the small sample size down even more but his numbers vs lefties are worth monitoring. As of right now:

 

vs LHB: 12 BB, 13 K, .258/.372/.492

vs RHB: 11 BB, 23 K, .200/.294/.330

 

It doesn't help that his changeup is non-existent (4% of his repertoire per BrooksBaseball) and he doesn't throw his curveball all that often either (9%). 


Edited by nmigliore, 31 July 2013 - 07:25 AM.

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- Jim Leyland

#1174 Colorado Rockies 1976

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Posted 31 July 2013 - 08:30 AM

I was NEVER anti-sabes nmig...more in how they're presented...it's like I've always said, I think sometimes they're used to twist/warp the truth a little.  But I've also always said that they can be helpful in fleshing out traditional stats or showing why they can be misleading.

 

Wheeler is a great example...if you weren't watching his games, a pure traditional stat guy might see Zack's 4-1, 3.55 ERA through eight starts and say "Wow, he's really pitching well."  I can counter that he's been pretty lucky.  The pure traditional guy might come back with "How can you say that, he's only given up 38 hits in 45.2 IP!"  Then I can point out multiple things, like Zack somehow keeping opponents' BA with RISP low (is that because Zack is just awesome with runners on or because he's had some luck?), the fact that he's allowing a fairly high number of baserunners, that guys who give up HRs and BBs tend to have that come back to bite them eventually, and how his FIP and xFIP illustrate that.

 

Re: the swings and misses...as good as he was yesterday, I forget who it was, but in the fifth inning someone worked a walk, and fouled off a lot of balls...I remember thinking "Man, can't Zack just get this guy to swing and miss?"


Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976, 31 July 2013 - 11:09 AM.

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THE NHL MUST LOVE THE DEVILS - from who else? A RANGER fan!
[Mark Messier]: A big, bald attention whore with a stupid Easter Island-lookin face. - from who else? DaneykoIsGod!

Even when Marty comes back maybe Larry should put Clemmensen to be on the goal during the shootouts.
Can the coach do that ? Switch the goalies 5 seconds to go in overtime?
- Most priceless quote ever posted on a message board.

Martin Brodeur: THE MOST ALL-TIME WINS!, 12 straight seasons of 30+ wins, 3 Stanley Cups, 4 Vezina Trophies, and zero respect from too many so-called Devils "fans" who are either too young or too bandwagon to remember the much darker days of Sean Burke, Craig Billington, Bob Sauve, Alain Chevrier, and the talented but overwhelmed Chico Resch, among many others.

It's easy to support a great player when he's playing at his very best. It takes a true fan to support that same player during those rare moments and stretches when he's not. Babe Ruth went 0-4 some games, and sometimes Wayne Gretzky was held pointless. There may be such a thing as greatness, but no such thing as absolute perfection every single night.

#30 FOREVER!

20 out of 1,946 njdevs.com members agree: CR1976 is the Most Knowledgable Poster of 2008! Victory is mine...oh yes, victory is mine!

#1175 Colorado Rockies 1976

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Posted 31 July 2013 - 11:34 AM

If anyone's wondering why RA Dickey is struggling, look no further than some of the numbers from last season to this one:

 

2012: 233.2 IP, 54 BB, 24 HR

2013: 140.2 IP, 50 BB, 24 HR

 

His ERA as a Met:  2.95

Everywhere else:  5.26

 

I know there's reasons that factor into the higher ERA everywhere else (American League, not having mastered his knuckler yet, etc), but it's truly amazing how much better he was as a Met than for the other teams he has pitcher for.


Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976, 31 July 2013 - 11:36 AM.

  • 0
THE NHL MUST LOVE THE DEVILS - from who else? A RANGER fan!
[Mark Messier]: A big, bald attention whore with a stupid Easter Island-lookin face. - from who else? DaneykoIsGod!

Even when Marty comes back maybe Larry should put Clemmensen to be on the goal during the shootouts.
Can the coach do that ? Switch the goalies 5 seconds to go in overtime?
- Most priceless quote ever posted on a message board.

Martin Brodeur: THE MOST ALL-TIME WINS!, 12 straight seasons of 30+ wins, 3 Stanley Cups, 4 Vezina Trophies, and zero respect from too many so-called Devils "fans" who are either too young or too bandwagon to remember the much darker days of Sean Burke, Craig Billington, Bob Sauve, Alain Chevrier, and the talented but overwhelmed Chico Resch, among many others.

It's easy to support a great player when he's playing at his very best. It takes a true fan to support that same player during those rare moments and stretches when he's not. Babe Ruth went 0-4 some games, and sometimes Wayne Gretzky was held pointless. There may be such a thing as greatness, but no such thing as absolute perfection every single night.

#30 FOREVER!

20 out of 1,946 njdevs.com members agree: CR1976 is the Most Knowledgable Poster of 2008! Victory is mine...oh yes, victory is mine!

#1176 nmigliore

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Posted 31 July 2013 - 12:45 PM

#Mets suddenly are some hits on Byrd, have made counteroffers, will see if anyone budges. #Pirates believed 1 of interested teams.

 

Come on Sandy, don't get greedy!


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"Take all that clubhouse [expletive] and all that, throw it out the window. Every writer in the country has been writing about that [expletive] for years. Chemistry don't mean [expletive]."

- Jim Leyland

#1177 Colorado Rockies 1976

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Posted 31 July 2013 - 12:57 PM

Sherman also says that some thought that Cards might be interested in Buck.  Apparently Molina's about to go on the DL. 

 

Man, if the Mets traded Buck and Byrd today for a couple of prospects...big win.


  • 0
THE NHL MUST LOVE THE DEVILS - from who else? A RANGER fan!
[Mark Messier]: A big, bald attention whore with a stupid Easter Island-lookin face. - from who else? DaneykoIsGod!

Even when Marty comes back maybe Larry should put Clemmensen to be on the goal during the shootouts.
Can the coach do that ? Switch the goalies 5 seconds to go in overtime?
- Most priceless quote ever posted on a message board.

Martin Brodeur: THE MOST ALL-TIME WINS!, 12 straight seasons of 30+ wins, 3 Stanley Cups, 4 Vezina Trophies, and zero respect from too many so-called Devils "fans" who are either too young or too bandwagon to remember the much darker days of Sean Burke, Craig Billington, Bob Sauve, Alain Chevrier, and the talented but overwhelmed Chico Resch, among many others.

It's easy to support a great player when he's playing at his very best. It takes a true fan to support that same player during those rare moments and stretches when he's not. Babe Ruth went 0-4 some games, and sometimes Wayne Gretzky was held pointless. There may be such a thing as greatness, but no such thing as absolute perfection every single night.

#30 FOREVER!

20 out of 1,946 njdevs.com members agree: CR1976 is the Most Knowledgable Poster of 2008! Victory is mine...oh yes, victory is mine!

#1178 nmigliore

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Posted 31 July 2013 - 02:36 PM

Sherman says 2 executives would be shocked if the Mets do anything now.

 

Cool, thanks Sandy. You continue to prove what an overrated GM you are. This winter is my last straw with this group. 


Edited by nmigliore, 31 July 2013 - 02:37 PM.

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LETS GO METS
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"Take all that clubhouse [expletive] and all that, throw it out the window. Every writer in the country has been writing about that [expletive] for years. Chemistry don't mean [expletive]."

- Jim Leyland

#1179 Colorado Rockies 1976

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Posted 31 July 2013 - 02:48 PM

Sherman says 2 executives would be shocked if the Mets do anything now.

 

Cool, thanks Sandy. You continue to prove what an overrated GM you are. This winter is my last straw with this group. 

 

Passive fvcking clown.  Jesus Sandy, we weren't expecting you to turn the Byrds and the Bucks and the others into Zack Wheeler, we just wanted you to get some midling prospects!  You can't not give a sh!t about 2013, then decide now that suddenly 2013 matters to you!  Knew he was going to fvck this day up.  Oh well, guess it's all about going for 80 wins.  Wooo-hooo!  fvck you Sandy.  

 

Last three starts for Montero:  17 IP, 18 H, 9 R, 8 ER, 9 BB, 12 K, 4.23 ERA.  Numbers that worry you since Montero's been called up are the increase in BBs, and the PCL hitting .291 off him.  Hoping all of this is PCL-related more than anything else. 


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THE NHL MUST LOVE THE DEVILS - from who else? A RANGER fan!
[Mark Messier]: A big, bald attention whore with a stupid Easter Island-lookin face. - from who else? DaneykoIsGod!

Even when Marty comes back maybe Larry should put Clemmensen to be on the goal during the shootouts.
Can the coach do that ? Switch the goalies 5 seconds to go in overtime?
- Most priceless quote ever posted on a message board.

Martin Brodeur: THE MOST ALL-TIME WINS!, 12 straight seasons of 30+ wins, 3 Stanley Cups, 4 Vezina Trophies, and zero respect from too many so-called Devils "fans" who are either too young or too bandwagon to remember the much darker days of Sean Burke, Craig Billington, Bob Sauve, Alain Chevrier, and the talented but overwhelmed Chico Resch, among many others.

It's easy to support a great player when he's playing at his very best. It takes a true fan to support that same player during those rare moments and stretches when he's not. Babe Ruth went 0-4 some games, and sometimes Wayne Gretzky was held pointless. There may be such a thing as greatness, but no such thing as absolute perfection every single night.

#30 FOREVER!

20 out of 1,946 njdevs.com members agree: CR1976 is the Most Knowledgable Poster of 2008! Victory is mine...oh yes, victory is mine!

#1180 Colorado Rockies 1976

Colorado Rockies 1976

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Posted 31 July 2013 - 02:56 PM

Can't wait to hear befuddled Sandy's stammering later, as to why he did nothing. 

 

Might as well open up extension talks with Byrd...if he's so friggin' important in Sandy's eyes in 2013, might as well keep him for 2014-15. 


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THE NHL MUST LOVE THE DEVILS - from who else? A RANGER fan!
[Mark Messier]: A big, bald attention whore with a stupid Easter Island-lookin face. - from who else? DaneykoIsGod!

Even when Marty comes back maybe Larry should put Clemmensen to be on the goal during the shootouts.
Can the coach do that ? Switch the goalies 5 seconds to go in overtime?
- Most priceless quote ever posted on a message board.

Martin Brodeur: THE MOST ALL-TIME WINS!, 12 straight seasons of 30+ wins, 3 Stanley Cups, 4 Vezina Trophies, and zero respect from too many so-called Devils "fans" who are either too young or too bandwagon to remember the much darker days of Sean Burke, Craig Billington, Bob Sauve, Alain Chevrier, and the talented but overwhelmed Chico Resch, among many others.

It's easy to support a great player when he's playing at his very best. It takes a true fan to support that same player during those rare moments and stretches when he's not. Babe Ruth went 0-4 some games, and sometimes Wayne Gretzky was held pointless. There may be such a thing as greatness, but no such thing as absolute perfection every single night.

#30 FOREVER!

20 out of 1,946 njdevs.com members agree: CR1976 is the Most Knowledgable Poster of 2008! Victory is mine...oh yes, victory is mine!




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