Hughes off the board to Minnesota, 3 years at $8M AAV. Again, not crying about that one; I didn't like the idea of giving him 2 years, forget 3 years.
I would really look into Roberto Hernandez; there are a ton of similarities between he and one of my other favorite free agent starters that went off the board, Dan Haren:
Haren, 2013: 169 IP, 4.67 ERA, 3.67 xFIP, 3.60 SIERA
Hernandez, 2013: 151 IP, 4.89 ERA, 3.60 xFIP, 3.66 SIERA
Haren, 2014 Steamer projection: 173 IP, 3.57 ERA, 3.55 FIP, +2.2 WAR
Hernandez, 2014 Steamer projection: 182 IP, 3.72 ERA, 3.50 FIP, +2.9 WAR
Both had a significant case of good process/bad results in 2013, both are 33 year old veteran right handers, and both have very similar 2014 projections from Steamer (though Haren's projection comes in the NL at Dodger Stadium with less IP, hence the WAR difference).
Haren got 1/10 plus a vesting option for $10M based on 180 IP. I expect Hernandez to land a similar deal, but probably 40-50% of the guaranteed money that Haren got; maybe something like 1/5 with a IP/games started vesting option that holds a salary increase. MLBTR projected him for 1/5 plus incentives earlier in the offseason while the Fangraphs Crowdsource had him at 1/4ish.
He fits the budget and type of bargain-bin profile the front office is probably looking for among starting pitchers; usually that's not a good thing, but Hernandez could actually be one of the best bargains out there right now. For what it's worth, that +3 WAR Steamer projection ranks 3rd best among current free agent starters; only Burnett (+3.9) and Kuroda (+3.5) have a better projection.
Edited by nmigliore, 01 December 2013 - 11:29 AM.