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How success kills good teams (and why S. Gionta needs benching)


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#41 SterioDesign

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 03:18 PM

the problem is that they've been a 3rd line for awhile. Like i said to me that line is an above average 4th line but a very borderline or below average 3rd line... it's a thin line but still


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#42 Triumph

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 03:27 PM

What? Give me even 15 fourth liners that are better than him? Otherwise, you're all over the place. An admission that he's had success over 40 games (or virtually his entire NHL career) but that it's "luck". He's not always matched up against the other teams top players, but then pointing to how bad he does against Crosby, et al. On the other hand, Josefson is not producing, but that's just bad luck.

 

Name a fourth line player who isn't an enforcer, I'll give you one who is better than Stephen Gionta.  Just name anyone.  Craig Adams.  Scott Nichol.  Jeff Halpern.  Keith Aucoin.  Etc. etc.

 

It is luck.  The Devils have shot like 13% with Gionta on the ice.  You cannot sustain an NHL career doing that.  
 

The whopper of course is that what DeBoer is doing doesn't quite add up. HELLO, the same formula got the Devils to the SCF last year, and has them in first place right now. Obviously what he's doing adds up, or adds up a lot more than anything anyone else has to offer.

 

Hahaha.  No other response to this but that.  I hated this in the playoffs too but it happened to work out.  Until, of course, the Devils played a team that was good at puck possession and they got completely destroyed in all facets.  I haven't even addressed the Salvador issue which is almost certainly more pressing than the Gionta one.

 

I have no particular attachment to Gionta. Find someone who's better and I'll happily send him back to the AHL. Hell, I would love it if were him instead of Josefson or even Tedenby being sent to the AHL. I love it when our first round picks succeed. But anyone with a pair of eyeballs realizes that right now anyway, Gionta belongs with the team more than any other available replacement, including Joesfson.

 

Anyone with a pair of eyeballs sees him and his line getting pounded nightly, which many people have come into the thread to say.  I'd love for sundstrom's lineup to be a playoff lineup, but there'll be injuries and Gionta will be in there, somehow.


Edited by Triumph, 17 February 2013 - 03:29 PM.

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#43 Daniel

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 03:53 PM

Name a fourth line player who isn't an enforcer, I'll give you one who
 

 
Hahaha.  No other response to this but that.  I hated this in the playoffs too but it happened to work out.  Until, of course, the Devils played a team that was good at puck possession and they got completely destroyed in all facets.  I haven't even addressed the Salvador issue which is almost certainly more pressing than the Gionta one.
 

 
.


So they lost in the SCF to a team that steam rolled everyone (losing 2 of those games in overtime when having chances to win but hitting posts at the end of the game), but it just "happened to work out."

It all comes down to whatever my stats don't predict must be luck.
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#44 nessus

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 03:56 PM

I haven't even addressed the Salvador issue which is almost certainly more pressing than the Gionta one.

 I would like to hear your thoughts on this, too.


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#45 SterioDesign

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 04:15 PM

 I would like to hear your thoughts on this, too.

 

save some time, just go look at the shot % and you'll have his exact thoughts right there. 


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#46 maxpower

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 04:26 PM

I don't *think* he's an NHL player but there's a bit of hyperbole to this.    He shouldn't be killing penalties, but they do need a 3rd unit guy.   This is where losing Zubrus hurts them.   You have Kovy, Zajac, Elias, Henrique, Carter to kill penalties.   After that it's a tad dodgy.

 

Here's the thing.   He's a better fourth line player than what they had been trotting out there in the past.    I think our fourth line had 1 or 2 goals tops for the entire season before they reformulated the line for the playoffs, featuring putrid Janssen, and Boulton, who may have been the worst player in the league last season, not named Nino Niederreiter.

 

He's overplayed but they have to align themselves in a way where someone is more productive before he can be played less.     I think this team is alot like last years, where it has warts and the warts will have to be worked on as they go along.


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#47 Ollie McKraut

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 05:27 PM

All Gionta does is score goals and win games


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#48 Triumph

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 05:39 PM

So they lost in the SCF to a team that steam rolled everyone (losing 2 of those games in overtime when having chances to win but hitting posts at the end of the game), but it just "happened to work out."

It all comes down to whatever my stats don't predict must be luck.

 

The Devils got absolutely dominated.  Here you go:  http://nhlnumbers.co...nces-zone-exits

 

Anyway, I've given in and started arguing like you, which is a mistake on my part.  DeBoer is a good coach.  I like most of what he does.  But that doesn't mean that I'm going to like everything he does, or that because he does certain things that I like, I have to forgive his doing things that I don't like.  I don't think playing Stephen Gionta is a good idea - and I certainly think his use on the PK is a mistake.  As for max's post, they were using Ponikarovsky there in these first two games, and of course they sent Mathieu Darche home who might've been a help in that regard.  I know they don't like using top forwards there if they can avoid it, but there has to be a solution.  (And it might help if they stopped using Gionta off faceoffs, like they used Kovalchuk last year).


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#49 DH26

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 05:47 PM

The Devils got absolutely dominated.  Here you go:  http://nhlnumbers.co...nces-zone-exits

 

Anyway, I've given in and started arguing like you, which is a mistake on my part.  DeBoer is a good coach.  I like most of what he does.  But that doesn't mean that I'm going to like everything he does, or that because he does certain things that I like, I have to forgive his doing things that I don't like.  I don't think playing Stephen Gionta is a good idea - and I certainly think his use on the PK is a mistake.  As for max's post, they were using Ponikarovsky there in these first two games, and of course they sent Mathieu Darche home who might've been a help in that regard.  I know they don't like using top forwards there if they can avoid it, but there has to be a solution.  (And it might help if they stopped using Gionta off faceoffs, like they used Kovalchuk last year).

 

I dunno how people watching those games didn't see the Kings with constant possession beating the hell out of the devils and completely controlling the game. The games the Devils won, they just got lucky, the Kings still should've won those games too. Game 1 w/ the post-Devils were getting no possession and they weren't shooting when they had any whether it was due to there not being shots or them willingly not shooting for whatever reason. 

 

Rangers aren't a good possession team, they like to sit back and let teams get scoring chances-the only reason they got to the ECF was bc they played intentionally bad possession Washington and not that good Ottawa and had to do it in 7 games. The Devils were the first decent team they played. The Flyers series is the anomaly but whatever happened there I dunno. The Kings were the best possession team in the league post-Carter trade (I think, I'm sure Tri knows) and they continued it through the playoffs they weren't just a random finals team like 03 Anaheim. And if Gionta's hurting possession more than somebody in the AHL like Josefson when he wakes up, send him down no matter the narrative of him being the underdog 


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#50 Daniel

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 05:52 PM

The Devils got absolutely dominated. Here you go: http://nhlnumbers.co...nces-zone-exits

Anyway, I've given in and started arguing like you, which is a mistake on my part. DeBoer is a good coach. I like most of what he does. But that doesn't mean that I'm going to like everything he does, or that because he does certain things that I like, I have to forgive his doing things that I don't like. I don't think playing Stephen Gionta is a good idea - and I certainly think his use on the PK is a mistake. As for max's post, they were using Ponikarovsky there in these first two games, and of course they sent Mathieu Darche home who might've been a help in that regard. I know they don't like using top forwards there if they can avoid it, but there has to be a solution. (And it might help if they stopped using Gionta off faceoffs, like they used Kovalchuk last year).



Well that's fine of course, re DeBoer. And more or less I feel the same way. But again, there's this tirade about one player without saying who he ought to be replaced with or putting things in context.

Re the SCF, my point wasn't that it was an evenly matched series. It wasn't. You made a categorical statement that somethng DeBoer was doing wasn't adding up. A team that gies to the SCF finals and is currently in first place after losing arguably its best forward makes that statement demnstrably untrue.

DeBoer is a bg reason why the team has succeeded. And success is measured in winning games, not time of posession, shots, or anything else.

Edited by Daniel, 17 February 2013 - 05:59 PM.

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#51 Triumph

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 05:55 PM

Josefson, obviously.  As someone pointed out (I think it was Vic Rattlehead) the Carter-Josefson-Bernier trio played a bit last year and did well.  I suspect that's their ultimate goal - the use of Josefson late in games suggests it, anyway.


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#52 maxpower

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 05:57 PM

I dunno how people watching those games didn't see the Kings with constant possession beating the hell out of the devils and completely controlling the game. The games the Devils won, they just got lucky, the Kings still should've won those games too. Game 1 w/ the post-Devils were getting no possession and they weren't shooting when they had any whether it was due to there not being shots or them willingly not shooting for whatever reason. 

 

Rangers aren't a good possession team, they like to sit back and let teams get scoring chances-the only reason they got to the ECF was bc they played intentionally bad possession Washington and not that good Ottawa and had to do it in 7 games. The Devils were the first decent team they played. The Flyers series is the anomaly but whatever happened there I dunno. The Kings were the best possession team in the league post-Carter trade (I think, I'm sure Tri knows) and they continued it through the playoffs they weren't just a random finals team like 03 Anaheim. And if Gionta's hurting possession more than somebody in the AHL like Josefson when he wakes up, send him down no matter the narrative of him being the underdog 

 

Eh, the first two games in Jersey were relatively even games, even in their low quality, at least.   We got lucky to get back into the series, but at the same time, Fayne airmailed a virtually empty net in Game 1.


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#53 Triumph

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 05:58 PM

Eh, the first two games in Jersey were relatively even games, even in their low quality, at least.   We got lucky to get back into the series, but at the same time, Fayne airmailed a virtually empty net in Game 1.

 

NJ could've won either of the first two games, but they had no business winning any of the ones they did win - those took great performances by Brodeur.


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#54 Vic Rattlehead18

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 06:21 PM

Threads like this make me frequent this board less and less. I only read the first page and a half because my head hurt from scratching it so much. Some times I think Triumph doesn't even watch the games but merely goes to the stat sheets afterwards for his tell-all fenwick and other bs stats to make his decisions.

CBGB is a 4th line. And Zubrus coming back will finally fill up a third line that will allow CBGB to be bumped back down. But to say they're not even a good line? We would not have gone as far in the playoffs if they were not a line. They are our best 4th line in YEARS. Right now it's just a matter of not having more talented bodies to fill up the third line, mostly because of barch


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#55 SterioDesign

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 06:36 PM

Threads like this make me frequent this board less and less. I only read the first page and a half because my head hurt from scratching it so much. Some times I think Triumph doesn't even watch the games but merely goes to the stat sheets afterwards for his tell-all fenwick and other bs stats to make his decisions.
CBGB is a 4th line. And Zubrus coming back will finally fill up a third line that will allow CBGB to be bumped back down. But to say they're not even a good line? We would not have gone as far in the playoffs if they were not a line. They are our best 4th line in YEARS. Right now it's just a matter of not having more talented bodies to fill up the third line, mostly because of barch


Well im glad im not the only one thinking that way
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#56 capo

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 07:22 PM

If you look at his 5v5 numbers he's outplaying Zubrus.  He probably shouldn't be in the NHL either.  I don't disagree with the whole premise.  Gionta is not a good NHLer, that's true.  But, what he does have is chemistry with Carter and Bernier. 

 

As far as Triumph's opinions of what takes place on the ice I must quote Mark Twain once again "Lies, damn lies, and statistics".

 

Stats are just fluff that don't mean anything.  There is so much that is hockey that cannot be recorded on the stat sheet.  More than any other game.  You can't moneyball hockey. 


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#57 Triumph

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 07:31 PM

Threads like this make me frequent this board less and less. I only read the first page and a half because my head hurt from scratching it so much. Some times I think Triumph doesn't even watch the games but merely goes to the stat sheets afterwards for his tell-all fenwick and other bs stats to make his decisions.

 

 

Believe what you want, but I've seen just about every game this year.

 

CBGB is a 4th line. And Zubrus coming back will finally fill up a third line that will allow CBGB to be bumped back down. But to say they're not even a good line? We would not have gone as far in the playoffs if they were not a line. They are our best 4th line in YEARS. Right now it's just a matter of not having more talented bodies to fill up the third line, mostly because of barch.

 

You're making my point.  I titled this 'How success kills good teams'.  That's how.  Carter-Gionta-Bernier was put together out of necessity - Josefson got hurt at the end of the season and so they needed a center and Gionta was the guy they called.  The line did extremely well together in the playoffs, beyond what anyone could have expected.  And while I'm not ready to say 'We would not have gone as far in the playoffs if they were not a line', I am going to say that without the contributions of those three players, no, the Devils don't make the Stanley Cup Finals.  And so what do you do at the beginning of the next season?   Lou brought them all back and DeBoer's played them as a third line, things that were hinted at ominously in the off-season by both men.

 

It's up for fans to be sentimental, but it's up for general managers and coaches to be brutally objective.  When general managers get sentimental, when they start thinking 'Without player X, we don't go that far, therefore we need player X', [even if his contributions were over and above what anyone could've expected]' - it's a mistake.  Gionta's continued playing is one such mistake.


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#58 NJDevs4978

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 07:34 PM

I agree mostly with your thoughts. I think Gionta can stick in the league as a 4th line guy playing 7-8 minutes, But he shouldn't be on the PK ever, and he shouldn't be matched up against any top lines. 

 

Well Gionta wasn't on the ice for any of the first ten PK goals till last Friday.  Of course he's been on the ice for the last four so now people say he can't play the PK because of a brutal special teams game yesterday.


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#59 Triumph

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 07:38 PM

Well Gionta wasn't on the ice for any of the first ten PK goals till last Friday.  Of course he's been on the ice for the last four so now people say he can't play the PK because of a brutal special teams game yesterday.

 

There aren't good stats regarding the PK and they're all confounded by who starts the PK versus guys who come out when it's already underway - Gionta's had some nice short handed chances and he can make plays with his stick pressuring people along the wall.  I think he's not very good at getting his stick in lanes and he doesn't cover that much ground once the opponent's power play is set up.


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#60 Sarge18

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Posted 18 February 2013 - 12:08 AM

the problem with gionta is that he is a 1 skill player, with just speed. No size, marginal stick skills, and no smarts. This leads to an ability to generate a basic transition game and some scoring chances on the rush.  But right now the majority of good offensive play comes from the wingers who make the most of the dump and chase game and do all the dirty work below the goal line that makes the line go.

 

Back to gionta, his speed covers up lots of warts.  Mostly his lack of smarts, he does not play the game positionally well, but his foot speed can overcome some of it,  He chases the game rather than reading it.  Its a totally reactionary way of playing d, and is a bigger problem on the pk than 5 on 5 where it pulls him out of his lanes frequency breaking down the box. 

 

That he could not get a 1 way beyond this year is telling in two ways.  First on the lack of forward depth the Devil have this year, but it also shows a lack of faith that Gionta is a nhl solution moving forward.  Hes filling a hole for the year, and I wouldn't expect him to be around as more than an emergency call up beyond that.


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