Again my point is not that Gio should be on the PK or that he's an incredible player.
But whats telling us that his shooting % will remain the same all season long? serious question? there's no possibility of improvement for that poor guy?
I will stand by my point that it's ridiculous to put that much into shooting %. Hockey is not baseball where you can pretty much look at stats and here goes the game. It's like someone pointed out its like Tri is not even watching the game and just go through stats to make a judgement on players.
I'm sorry but I can't make sense of this at all. I think part of it is vocabulary-based though and I don't help because I use a lot of different terms.
Shooting percentage is the number of goals divided by the number of shots taken. A goal on 10 shots is 10%, etc.
Shots percentage, something which isn't used by a lot of people, means the % of shots taken by a team while a given player is on the ice (or by a team overall). I think you mean shots percentage when you're saying shooting percentage, or at least that's the only way this makes sense. Could Gionta improve his current percentage? Yeah. Can he get anywhere close to 50%, given that in at least the last 40 games he's around 40%? Probably not, no. I don't think he will stay at 37% either, but I don't think he'll get significantly better. And when you look at shots percentage from last year, for players who played 750 ES minutes, you find one guy even close to where Gionta's at now, and that's Manny Malhotra who the Canucks were using in a purely defensive role, starting a lot in the defensive zone. Gionta's not starting a lot in the defensive zone.
I see how DeBoer draws it up in his head, like a manager who bats a fast guy who has trouble getting on base in the leadoff spot. You think okay in the 1st inning the leadoff man gets on, then he steals second, 2nd hitter bunts him over to third, and now I've got my sluggers up with a man on 3rd. Except that that's very rare, and now as a result you're using this fast guy who doesn't hit well more often than any of your other hitters. DeBoer thinks 'okay, these guys forecheck well, if I get them out against the opponents' top line and they forecheck them to death, I'm way up on them because I've got my top line going up against worse players of theirs'. Which would be true, except that it doesn't happen often enough.
Re: Morozov - we're asking the wrong question. We can't know if Morozov's performance (which by the way is 12 goals against the Devils in 30 games, with 50 shots taken) is 'lucky' or not - there's no way of testing that. The only thing there is a way of testing is whether or not we should expect an Aleksey Morozov in Brodeur's career, given that Brodeur has faced 30,000 shots and X number of shooters, what should the distribution of forwards who've had 40 or more shots against Brodeur look like? Because there's almost certainly an Anti Morozov out there too who was totally snakebitten against Marty. Unfortunately I don't know how to do that and it's a lot of work anyway, but you'll never prove anything looking at one case. We'd have to see if there's a massively unequal distribution of Morozov-ites and anti Morozov-ites, and then see if that holds true for other goalies who've faced 10,000 shots.
Edited by Triumph, 18 February 2013 - 12:32 PM.