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How success kills good teams (and why S. Gionta needs benching)


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#81 GoArmySports

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Posted 18 February 2013 - 01:11 PM

Gio scores!
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#82 msweet

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Posted 18 February 2013 - 01:12 PM

Best 4th line ever...

 

..ok playing 3rd line for now


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#83 MantaRay

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Posted 18 February 2013 - 01:41 PM

Gio brings a work effort and team dynamic that you can't quantify with silly stats.   They are a better team when he plays.


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#84 SterioDesign

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Posted 18 February 2013 - 02:01 PM

I'm sorry but I can't make sense of this at all.  I think part of it is vocabulary-based though and I don't help because I use a lot of different terms.

 

Shooting percentage is the number of goals divided by the number of shots taken.  A goal on 10 shots is 10%, etc.

 

Shots percentage, something which isn't used by a lot of people, means the % of shots taken by a team while a given player is on the ice (or by a team overall). I think you mean shots percentage when you're saying shooting percentage, or at least that's the only way this makes sense.  Could Gionta improve his current percentage?  Yeah.  Can he get anywhere close to 50%, given that in at least the last 40 games he's around 40%?  Probably not, no.  I don't think he will stay at 37% either, but I don't think he'll get significantly better.  And when you look at shots percentage from last year, for players who played 750 ES minutes, you find one guy even close to where Gionta's at now, and that's Manny Malhotra who the Canucks were using in a purely defensive role, starting a lot in the defensive zone.  Gionta's not starting a lot in the defensive zone.

 

ok i don't mean to be rude but... It's no used by a lot a people... there's a reason for that.

 

it's like you think because not a lot of people are using them that's its some kind of underground thing or something really top notch analyzers are using and that its not open to public since it's too complicated or wtv. 

 

it's an extremely misleading stat just like +/-


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#85 Devils Dose

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Posted 18 February 2013 - 02:28 PM

Gio scores!

The NJDevs anti-jinx just can't fail this year!
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#86 Devils731

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Posted 18 February 2013 - 02:42 PM

ok i don't mean to be rude but... It's no used by a lot a people... there's a reason for that.

it's like you think because not a lot of people are using them that's its some kind of underground thing or something really top notch analyzers are using and that its not open to public since it's too complicated or wtv.

it's an extremely misleading stat just like +/-


Baseball guys said the same thing about advanced baseball stats. Now it's generally agreed they work very well, after they were mocked for decades.
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#87 SterioDesign

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Posted 18 February 2013 - 03:01 PM

Baseball guys said the same thing about advanced baseball stats. Now it's generally agreed they work very well, after they were mocked for decades.

 

there's still wayyyyyy too many variables and different context in a hockey game compared to baseball. Apples and oranges


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#88 Devil Dan 56

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Posted 18 February 2013 - 03:32 PM

Not taking either side of this discussion, since I'm no fan of statistic worship and I also feel Gio gets slightly over-hyped by the fan base, but I do wonder what the advanced stats on the Crash Line would have been.


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#89 halfsharkalligatorhalfman

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Posted 18 February 2013 - 04:13 PM

Stephen Gionta may be "killing" the team, but I think making JJ a 4th line player isn't in the team's long term interests yet. They want to see if JJ can be more than just a defensive specialist, which is why they sent him down to Albany instead of moving him to the 4th when getting Loktionov in there.

Winning as many regular season games as possible isn't really that important for a team like the Devils, they are a playoff team baring a goaltending collapse. They should be spending the regular season figuring out who their best players are and trying to develop their young talent. Once the playoffs start put the best lineup out there (If Loktionov proves he's better than Gionta, then he's probably going in). I think DeBoer feels that way. This guy put Gionta and Harrold into his lineup last postseason without any real experience because they were simply the best players available to him.

I think the best thing for "THE DEVILS" is to have JJ in albany getting offensive minutes but the best thing for winning games is to have him on the 4th. I say this having watched 5 minutes of Devils hockey this season but that's what it sounds like to me.
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#90 Onddeck

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Posted 18 February 2013 - 04:28 PM

haha Gio would score after a thread like this


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#91 Triumph

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Posted 18 February 2013 - 04:59 PM

there's still wayyyyyy too many variables and different context in a hockey game compared to baseball. Apples and oranges

 

Sure there's way more.  But that doesn't mean we can't learn things.  

 

Not taking either side of this discussion, since I'm no fan of statistic worship and I also feel Gio gets slightly over-hyped by the fan base, but I do wonder what the advanced stats on the Crash Line would have been.

 

Probably pretty good, Holik was no doubt a microstats monster and he and McKay could've hauled Peluso to being good in that regard.  As a Devil, Holik never had a minus year and he never played on the PK, so it's pretty easy to assume he was dominating year in and year out.  

 

Stephen Gionta may be "killing" the team, but I think making JJ a 4th line player isn't in the team's long term interests yet. They want to see if JJ can be more than just a defensive specialist, which is why they sent him down to Albany instead of moving him to the 4th when getting Loktionov in there.

Winning as many regular season games as possible isn't really that important for a team like the Devils, they are a playoff team baring a goaltending collapse. They should be spending the regular season figuring out who their best players are and trying to develop their young talent. Once the playoffs start put the best lineup out there (If Loktionov proves he's better than Gionta, then he's probably going in). I think DeBoer feels that way. This guy put Gionta and Harrold into his lineup last postseason without any real experience because they were simply the best players available to him.

I think the best thing for "THE DEVILS" is to have JJ in albany getting offensive minutes but the best thing for winning games is to have him on the 4th. I say this having watched 5 minutes of Devils hockey this season but that's what it sounds like to me.

 

This is fair now, but the trouble is that I don't think before the season you could pencil the Devils in as a playoff team, and even now, they're only a few losses away from falling out of the race.  So yeah, I don't mind the Josefson demotion for these reasons, and I think Gionta could sit if the Devils make the playoffs and if everyone's healthy, but those are two ifs, one bigger than another.  I thought Carter might be out long-term but the Devils made him available for the media so probably not - it might've ended for a brief time DeBoer's CBGB fetish.


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#92 Pepperkorn

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Posted 18 February 2013 - 05:27 PM

OK - time to put this one t bed. This thread is getting creepy.  I think the great teacher has spake enough - y'all can keep giving him a voice but it's gettin' weird ....  I'm just sayin'  His back and forth "ah this is a valid point" "perhaps it's me but I think bluhuhh bluhuhh blah.."  sounds almost LDish even  :wacko:


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#93 squishyx

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Posted 18 February 2013 - 06:53 PM

For a guy "killing this team" he is tied for 5th in team scoring and is half the reason we got a point tonight.

Or we could bench him because he is bound to regress to the mean on some contrived stat or something.
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#94 Triumph

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Posted 18 February 2013 - 07:23 PM

For a guy "killing this team" he is tied for 5th in team scoring and is half the reason we got a point tonight.

Or we could bench him because he is bound to regress to the mean on some contrived stat or something.

 

Yes, that crazy stat I made up called shots on goal.

 

Oh look, Gionta last in Corsi once again:

 

http://www.inlouwetr...ottawa-senators


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#95 SterioDesign

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Posted 18 February 2013 - 08:30 PM

Yes, that crazy stat I made up called shots on goal.
 
Oh look, Gionta last in Corsi once again:
 
http://www.inlouwetr...ottawa-senators


So fvcking what !?!?! Did you even watch the game !?! Holy sh!t youre pissing me off with your godamn stats that means nothing.

Gionta was one of the best player who created chances with his forecheck today if youre not seeing that with ur damn stats well too bad for you.
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#96 Devils731

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Posted 18 February 2013 - 08:39 PM

Sterio, did you watch the game? Gionta's line had some good shifts but had a bunch of shifts where they got absolutely smashed.
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Your unconditional rejection of violence makes you smugly think of yourselves as noble, as enlightened, but in reality it is nothing less than abject moral capitulation to evil. Unconditional rejection of self-defense, because you think its a supposed surrender to violence, leaves you no resort but begging for mercy or offering appeasement.

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#97 SterioDesign

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Posted 18 February 2013 - 08:46 PM

Sterio, did you watch the game? Gionta's line had some good shifts but had a bunch of shifts where they got absolutely smashed.

Yes i watched it and you said it, HIS LINE. fvcking ridiculous to pin those shooting % on one guy theres 5 guys on the ice are you kidding me. They could have all came from the wing for all we know.

Gionta was one of the guy who created the most turnovers and i clearly remember some plays where he kept the puck in the o zone even if the dman had all the time in the world to clear or breakout and we got 2 scoring chances out of just that play.

The guy created chances and scored our only goal and some dude is trying to tell me hes sh!t cause hes last in corsi. Come on now

We seem to forget we have some horribly slow and who can barely handle the puck in our zone and they are the one supposed to get the puck out, plus we rely on the wingers to get the puck out so you really want to blame the center if were stuck in the zone?

Edited by SterioDesign, 18 February 2013 - 08:48 PM.

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#98 squishyx

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Posted 18 February 2013 - 08:48 PM

Yes, that crazy stat I made up called shots on goal.
 
Oh look, Gionta last in Corsi once again:
 
http://www.inlouwetr...ottawa-senators

Gio is 7th on the team for SOG. But you didn't mean SOG now did you? You meant some other stat that combines SOG and others to make some composite stat that you use to justify your argument. And if you had your way, we wouldn't have a point in the standings today.
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#99 Devils731

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Posted 18 February 2013 - 08:49 PM

He's also the guy that screws up his line's defense most often by running around, IMO. It's probably a function of him not filling a lot of space but he spends way too much time skating behind the puck carrier doing nothing.
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Your unconditional rejection of violence makes you smugly think of yourselves as noble, as enlightened, but in reality it is nothing less than abject moral capitulation to evil. Unconditional rejection of self-defense, because you think its a supposed surrender to violence, leaves you no resort but begging for mercy or offering appeasement.

-Terry Goodkind


Sex Panther cologne -- 50 percent of the time, it works every time.

-Anchorman

The best time to plant a tree is 20 years ago. The second best time is now.

-Anonymous

Keeper of Section 212-213's wayward step

#100 squishyx

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Posted 18 February 2013 - 08:51 PM

Sterio, did you watch the game? Gionta's line had some good shifts but had a bunch of shifts where they got absolutely smashed.

No one is trying to argue that Gio is some underrated elite player. The premise of this whole thread is "he is killing this team" when it's obvious he is not unless you rely on arbitrary stats. His is contributing the way you would hope your marginal players would. The fact that he is on the 3rd line for the Devils is a testament to our lack of depth not his qualifications as an NHL regular.
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