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Solving the Penalty Kill


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#21 AEWHistory

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Posted 24 February 2013 - 04:19 AM

I guess we're all conveniently forgetting that the PK was like 75% in the playoffs. If the goalies stop 80% of the shots your PK will suck, and if they stop 92%, it will be great - shot prevention or allowance can't make up for those sorts of gaps.

This sorta reminds me of the day my Mom pulled me aside to tell me she had finally grasped football. She said, "okay, I've got this game. When you have the ball you should always go forward, never backwards, and you should try to avoid just running to the side. When the other team has the ball then you should get the ball back, right?"

I thought to myself, yep, that covers it--she's ready to coach. I guess hockey is the same way. If you block shots the other team doesn't score and if you don't then they do. ;)

I'm just kidding Triumph. I think youre just trying to illustrate how thin the margin for error is between a good and poor PK, it's just the way you worded it or the way I read it hit my funny bone.

Seriously though, there is so much more to the story than those number IMO. I can't help but wonder if there are PKs that disprove this point. Let me explain. If you have a very good goalie behind a crap PK then it would not surprise me that he would be bombarded before finally succumbing and letting in a goal on the PK. Think Chico Resch with the Rockies and Devils. It would've been easy to have a crap GAA with a decent save PCT because the defense was sooooo porous.

OTOH, a good defense with a crap goalie would appear the exact opposite in theory. The goalie would have fewer shots against but, being a mediocrity, would allow in enough goals to undermine an otherwise good performance by the PK. I don't have a ready example here.

So if you're examining the PK units, a high save percentage may simply be a sign of a porous defense and a low save percentage might be a good defense. Come to think of it, didn't that hurt Marty in the '90s? He faced relatively few shots because of the Devs D?

Edited by AEWHistory, 24 February 2013 - 04:27 AM.

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#22 Neb00rs

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Posted 24 February 2013 - 06:45 PM

So, now that the "this is just bad luck," theory has been debunked...
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#23 maxpower

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Posted 24 February 2013 - 06:48 PM

Don't play Gionta.   That kill was perfectly fine until Gionta couldn't get the clear with everyone in the corner.     Shot still should have been stopped, but it shouldn't have happened.


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#24 Triumph

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Posted 24 February 2013 - 07:51 PM

So, now that the "this is just bad luck," theory has been debunked...

 

It certainly has not been.  Obviously not playing Gionta would be helpful (this is where the Devils are missing Mathieu Darche, who would've at least been able to keep Gionta off the PK)


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#25 SterioDesign

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Posted 24 February 2013 - 08:25 PM

Not as if Gionta is the only problem, JJ made many mistakes on the PK too, today they both went on the same player to the point leaving another guy wide open on the other side.


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#26 Neb00rs

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Posted 24 February 2013 - 09:16 PM

Delete.


Edited by Neb00rs, 24 February 2013 - 09:19 PM.

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#27 Neb00rs

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Posted 24 February 2013 - 09:18 PM

It certainly has not been.  Obviously not playing Gionta would be helpful (this is where the Devils are missing Mathieu Darche, who would've at least been able to keep Gionta off the PK)

 

 


Saying "certainly," here is a bit silly. I appreciate your micro-analysis of the game Triumph - always have but the evidence weighs completely contrary to the opinion that forces of nature are making our PK poor. I 100% agree that Gionta has to leave the PK. He adds space in the defensive zone.

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#28 NJDevs4978

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Posted 24 February 2013 - 09:57 PM

Don't play Gionta.   That kill was perfectly fine until Gionta couldn't get the clear with everyone in the corner.     Shot still should have been stopped, but it shouldn't have happened.

 

There was also no reason Josefson had to drift over to the right boards practically breathing on Gionta either, leaving the point wide open after the clear was blocked.


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#29 Triumph

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Posted 24 February 2013 - 10:09 PM

Saying "certainly," here is a bit silly. I appreciate your micro-analysis of the game Triumph - always have but the evidence weighs completely contrary to the opinion that forces of nature are making our PK poor. I 100% agree that Gionta has to leave the PK. He adds space in the defensive zone.

 

You could put 4 actual minor leaguers out for the PK and you wouldn't expect them to do as poorly as NJ has the last 9 games.  They're not playing well, but they are not catching a break at all.


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#30 Neb00rs

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Posted 25 February 2013 - 02:17 AM

You could put 4 actual minor leaguers out for the PK and you wouldn't expect them to do as poorly as NJ has the last 9 games.  They're not playing well, but they are not catching a break at all.

 

I obviously agree with the first part. But I don't understand what break you want them to catch. Such consistent and consecutive bad luck is nearly improbable at this point; you said it yourself, this goes back to last playoffs. The Jets scored on the first PP thanks to a series of weak plays in our zone. We played a little better on the next PP and killed it off.


Edited by Neb00rs, 25 February 2013 - 02:17 AM.

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