36 replies to this topic

[thefiestygoat]

Tallinder has impressed me during his time with the Devils and he has been a key part of the defensive corps. I think you can say he has been arguably the best or at the very least one of the best defenders for the Devils in his short time here. In this post I want to use "microstats" to take a look at his career here to back up my belief. I'm inspired since I don't like the way he has been handled by the Devils or viewed by the fans this year after the solid play he has delivered to us in previous seasons. I'm putting the data in spoilers to prevent this from being too long of a post to look at at once.

 

Glossary

Spoiler

TOI/60 - Minutes of Ice Time per Game

Corsi Rel QoC - A measure of competition quality using relative Corsi as its basis. It is less luck-driven than QualComp and more universal than Corsi QoC because it's based on a relative metric. The most statistically sound quality of competition metric currently used.

Corsi Rel - A player's Corsi value in comparison to his teammates. Relative Corsi is expressed as the player's Corsi minus the team Corsi rate. A positive value indicates a player who is better than the team average and a negative number is a player who is worse than the team average.

PDO - the sum of a player's on-ice save percentage and on-ice shooting percentage. PDO is an excellent way to measure "puck luck" or good fortune as it regresses heavily to the mean of 100 (sometimes shown as 1000). For example, a player with a PDO of 103.4 is likely to see his luck drop next year, affecting his plus-minus or point totals. A player with a PDO of 97.1 will likely have a "bounceback" year purely by getting a few more bounces go his way.

 

2011-12 (min. 39 GP) 5 on 5

Spoiler

TOI/60
1. Larsson (65 GP) 17.87
2. Tallinder (39 GP) 17.34
3. Zidlicky (63 GP) 16.69
4. Salvador (82 GP) 16.63
5. Fayne (82 GP) 16.59
6. Greene (56 GP) 16.56
7. Volchenkov (72 GP) 14.47

Corsi Rel QoC (higher number = better competition)
1. Fayne 0.787
2. Tallinder 0.701
3. Greene 0.664
4. Salvador 0.393
5. Volchenkov 0.238
6. Larsson 0.034
7. Zidlicky -0.093

Corsi Rel (higher number = better possession)
1. Zidlicky 7.9
2. Tallinder 3.1
3. Fayne 1.6
4. Volchenkov 1.0
5. Larsson 0.5
6. Greene -0.1
7. Salvador -8.7

Offensive Zone Start to Finish %'s (Ranked by most favorable starts)
Zidlicky 52.8 to 49.8
Larsson 52.1 to 51.9
Greene 52.0 to 55.6
Fayne 49.9 to 52.2
Volchenkov 47.6 to 46.2
Salvador 47.2 to 49.0
Tallinder 46.8 to 48.4

Just glancing over at these 4 categories we see that last year before he got hurt, Tallinder faced the 2nd toughest competition amongst Devils d-men, had the least favorable zone starts, yet still finished with the 2nd highest Relative Corsi behind Zidlicky who faced the weakest competition and had the most favorable zone starts. That is pretty respectable in my opinion. I also noticed that he had a low PDO of 964 which shows he actually didn't benefit from any "puck luck." This post talks about how PDO, while percieved to regress towards 1000 really sits more inbetween 983.5 and 1012.4 depending on ice time and shooting percentages. Further showing that he did all of this with no luck.

 

2011-12 PK 4 on 5 (Judging top 4 used via TOI)

Spoiler

TOI/60
1. Salvador 2.97
2. Volchenkov 2.95
3. Tallinder 2.43
4. Greene 1.78

Corsi Rel QoC
1. Volchenkov 6.867
2. Tallinder -2.272
3. Salvador -6.285
4. Greene -13.847

Corsi Rel
1. Greene 4.3
2. Tallinder 4.2
3. Salvador 4.2
4. Volchenkov -16.6

First off, these numbers are a bit ridiculous and I wouldn't value Corsi much on special teams unlike even strength but I just want to show that Tallinder was more than capable when on the PK. We all know how fantastic that PK was last year.

 

2010-11 (minimum 55 GP)
5 on 5

Spoiler

TOI/60
1. Tallinder (82 GP) 19.04
2. Greene (82 GP) 18.18
3. Fayne (57 GP) 16.04
4. White (69 GP) 15.72
5. Volchenkov (57 GP) 15.70

Corsi Rel QoC
1. Tallinder 0.636
2. White 0.593
3. Fayne 0.537
4. Greene 0.279
5. Volchenkov 0.140

Corsi Rel
1. Tallinder 8.4
2. Fayne 7.7
3. Greene -2.3
4. Volchenkov -3.3
5. White -6.7

Offensive Zone Start to Finish %'s (Ranked by most favorable starts)
Greene 54.1 to 51.9
Fayne 52.4 to 50.0
Volchenkov 52.3 to 48.2
Tallinder 51.4 to 50.1
White 49.1 to 50.6

So in that season, Tallinder logged the most ice time at even strength, faced the toughest competition, and came out ahead in possession against his opponents better than any of the other Devils d-men.

 

To sum it up, he's been real solid for the Devils and he deserves a chance to get a consistent run of games now to get back into form. He has clearly shown in the past that when he is in form he can be counted on to carry a lot of the load for this team.

[iamtheprodigy]

But he was terrible tonight and I have an extremely short memory!

 

In all seriousness, I know he was much better last season. But with 8 healthy d-men, and Salvador being untouchable, somebody has to sit, and Fayne needs to play too. I would like to see Volchenkov take a turn to sit out a game or two but I'm not sure if that will happen.

[Zubie#8]

With our group of defensemen he is the odd man out. He hasnt looked good in any game he has played in so far this year but obviously he is better than this. But every one of our guys has a reason to be a starter except him. He doesn't bring anything different to the table. Salvador obviously wont sit, Volchenkov brings a physical aspect, we need Zidlicky for the powerplay, Andy Greene is playing the best hockey of his career, Larsson and Fayne can easily do what Tallinder does and be better and they have a higher ceiling. Right now Tallinder looks very weak and lost and the six guys I just mentioned deserve to have a spot over him as of now. But he was extremely solid right before his injury last season, if he cant return to that form than I dont mind.

 

But as of now there is just no room for him, especially when Fayne is sitting presumably healthy.

Edited by Zubie#8, 21 February 2013 - 11:19 PM.

[NJDevs4978]

And who's he getting the games at the expense of?  That's the main problem right now.  You're not benching Salvador as much as people here want to (he got 25+ minutes tonight with 'no' PP time and was a +2).  Zidlicky's the main PP QB and Greene plays in all situations.  Volch is the only real candidate and benching a guy with the years/term he has on his deal is problematic.

 

So then you have idiocy like benching Larsson at the beginning of the season and benching Fayne now, while having no forward depth because you want to keep all eight defensemen.  Someone needs to go soon, this can't continue all season.

[Devils731]

On another level,  I think defenseman are also much harder to judge on TV than in person.  It's unfair to shutout a whole swatch of opinions just because he can't be at the games, but I do think that's the case.

 

When I see Tallinder play, I normally think he does a very good job at controlling play.  He makes plays that sustain Devils control of the puck and prevents the other team from keeping the puck.  Lots of those plays aren't flashy and aren't that noticeable but I think the second/third tier stats do a good job reflecting his strength in those areas.  His play/positioning away from the puck is good as well.

[thefiestygoat]

With our group of defensemen he is the odd man out. He hasnt looked good in any game he has played in so far this year but obviously he is better than this. But every one of our guys has a reason to be a starter except him. He doesn't bring anything different to the table. Salvador obviously wont sit, Volchenkov brings a physical aspect, we need Zidlicky for the powerplay, Andy Greene is playing the best hockey of his career, Larsson and Fayne can easily do what Tallinder does and be better and they have a higher ceiling. Right now Tallinder looks very weak and lost and the six guys I just mentioned deserve to have a spot over him as of now. But he was extremely solid right before his injury last season, if he cant return to that form than I dont mind.

 

But as of now there is just no room for him, especially when Fayne is sitting presumably healthy.

He looked fine up until his last few games that came after a lengthy benching that he had never experienced in his career. How is a player supposed to get into or stay in form when he's not playing games? Besides having to shake off rust, he knows that he is on thin ice since PDB (who I support for the record) favorites Volchenkov and Zidlicky. The Salvador issue will just be beaten to a dead horse if we talk about it so I'd rather focus on rotating either Volchenkov or Zidlicky out so that Tallinder AND Fayne can play. While Zidlicky does bring a skill to the table that none of the other defenders do, he also gets beat quite a bit in games. He's a useful player but by no means should be exempt from having to sit out here and there. Sometimes the risk outweighs the reward.

After everything Tallinder gave to this team in his first 2 seasons, you'd think he would get more of the benefit of the doubt. He deserves to be in the line up or moved to a team that will use him. Volchenkov's physical presence is overstated and he gets beat often. He's benefited from facing weak competition and a real favorable zone start this year which makes him appear better than he is. As Devils731 pointed out, a lot of what Tallinder brings to the table is the stuff that goes unnoticed but helps win games.

 

And who's he getting the games at the expense of?  That's the main problem right now.  You're not benching Salvador as much as people here want to (he got 25+ minutes tonight with 'no' PP time and was a +2).  Zidlicky's the main PP QB and Greene plays in all situations.  Volch is the only real candidate and benching a guy with the years/term he has on his deal is problematic.

 

So then you have idiocy like benching Larsson at the beginning of the season and benching Fayne now, while having no forward depth because you want to keep all eight defensemen.  Someone needs to go soon, this can't continue all season.

Ideally at the expense of Volchenkov and I wouldn't worry about his contract with the possibility of moving him in the offseason to a team that needs a contract for the cap floor, or is desperate, very desperate for a defender, or just using the amnesty buyout on him. I know he has a no trade clause but there are ways around it.

In my opinion, benching Larsson, Fayne, or Tallinder is idiotic.

[hystyk28]

Everyone overlooks Harrold. He is a strong player. Will Lou use any of the buyouts? Volch would be a candidate if it were me.

[maxpower]

Tallinder was beyond horrible tonight.   Whatever he can give puck control wise that guys like Volch/Sal can't give, it's totally pointless if he's going to get posterized the rest of the game like he's a forward playing D.

 

I think he ended up not taking a Corsi "hit" against Ovechkin because Ovie either missed his shots or ended up getting taken out/tripping before he could finish.   Still doesn't excuse the horrible play.    This is the first game that Tallinder has played, that they have won.   And he stuck out like a sore thumb during it and ended up getting benched.

[StormJosh]

Awesome post, thanks for the really insightful statistics. Any chance you can put up Larson and Harrold's numbers, as well? I understand the small sample size is problematic but it might be interesting to see, nonetheless.

[Pepperkorn]

On another level,  I think defenseman are also much harder to judge on TV than in person.  It's unfair to shutout a whole swatch of opinions just because he can't be at the games, but I do think that's the case.

 

When I see Tallinder play, I normally think he does a very good job at controlling play.  He makes plays that sustain Devils control of the puck and prevents the other team from keeping the puck.  Lots of those plays aren't flashy and aren't that noticeable but I think the second/third tier stats do a good job reflecting his strength in those areas.  His play/positioning away from the puck is good as well.

There is truth here -- except you DO see it on TV, you just have to work at it.

 

Thing that has ALWAYS bugged me about Tallinder - he's not as on top of the play as your post suggests.  He is almost there or just about makes the right play - it's barely enough and for me not enough to really enable the team - it's stops the other guys forward momentum for a bit but it doesn't just end it right there and return power to the Devils.  He just about makes the right move.  If anyone is familiar with my rants I think I'd actually be saying this sort of play we're seeing now may be the best thing for him because he's failing more often now and not just squeaking by.  He's exposed and there is no escaping his short comings.  I say that's good only because I always think it can be fixed.  Maybe it can't be - but I just never think like that - probably to my detriment.

 

I think it's mental.  I have always thought it mental.  He's an odd mix of happy and grumpy.  He's a happy negative guy maybe?  Or ...I dont know.  It's clear he's hardest on himself and I think he shoudl know he's never fooled anyone or gotten away with anything.  He's just that good that he can stay in the lineup.  (or had been)  I was SOOOO hoping this wouldn't happen when I was "in love with tallinder" earlier this season, as some dope who read I think the only 2 posts I've ever made that might be interpreted as positive about the poor guy.   You know -- I dont understand it - I dont understand what he's thinking about himself and his skills.  When he almost had it on his own, no one really knew he might be about to fire on all cylinders, you know, he choked - and got his sensitive ass benched and -- well now look at him. 

 

It's bad that I think of guys as projects - it puts too much on their shoulders.  I just dont know what Tallider can handle in terms of accepting responsibility for his own break-through.  It's never too late for a break-through-- just harder to sustain when you're in your dotage (coughSalcough cough)

 

So do you all NOT know what I'm saying here?  I know what I write is pretty obvious.  I mean Lou, DeBoer, Chico - all their comments Marty Elias -- they all know what I mean and emphasize it appropriately but you guys never consider this area of hockey - it's like it's talking dirty for you guys.  Why is that?  Why do you need clean unemotional corsis?  I don't mind stats  I like them because it is a way to articulate state of mind as action....  I mean guys -- I'm right about this stuff - like ALL the time - I mean I predict a guys future career on the board if there is a danger he's going to leave the team.  I can tell you why a talented guy is just NOT going to work here. When I know, I KNOW.  and I know the team knows too - so why do you guys not discuss that stuff ever? But what I'm asking is do you all really not see what I'm saying in my posts you say you can't follow?

 

Also -- if anyone cares... is it bad juju to say?  I know my readers kind of aren't here now... but should I NOT write this stuff?  you know I'm talking to you and all... so -- I guess it doesn't matter    Too many people around me really hate the Devils now so I have no one to discuss with IRL these days.

Edited by Pepperkorn, 22 February 2013 - 10:11 AM.

[caron14]

he is bad lately.,,, i dont give a lot credit to your number if he continues to play the ways is he plating lately...

I love him last year in the finals and when he come in... but this year he have to step up... It a joke that fayne wasnt dress last night

[SterioDesign]

since the Sabres are struggling and that Myers has been struggling pretty much since Tallinder left do you guys think they'd take him back? 

 

OR the other way around try to get Myers here in hope that he can go back to his good days lol

[ThreeCups]

Tallinder was a statue on that last Caps goal....horrifying.

[Triumph]

Tallinder was beyond horrible tonight.   Whatever he can give puck control wise that guys like Volch/Sal can't give, it's totally pointless if he's going to get posterized the rest of the game like he's a forward playing D.

 

I think he ended up not taking a Corsi "hit" against Ovechkin because Ovie either missed his shots or ended up getting taken out/tripping before he could finish.   Still doesn't excuse the horrible play.    This is the first game that Tallinder has played, that they have won.   And he stuck out like a sore thumb during it and ended up getting benched.

 

If Ovechkin missed his shots, he gets a Corsi hit.

 

I'm also not sure he ended up being benched.  Larsson only played 13 minutes too.  Tallinder will probably be rotated out of the lineup, but he would still be in the lineup of 29 other teams.

[Daniel]

since the Sabres are struggling and that Myers has been struggling pretty much since Tallinder left do you guys think they'd take him back? 

 

OR the other way around try to get Myers here in hope that he can go back to his good days lol

 

Myers is a big cap problem, if not nightmare, although the real dollars he's owed are manageable.  Doesn't make sense though.  Buffalo has way too much invested in him.  From the Devils standpoint, it doesn't solve the problem, too many defensemen. 

[devlman]

I like Tallinder but he has been awful since hes come back. Plus, hes old, and recovering from a long layoff. We have 2 other Dmen who can step in, so drop Tallinder and give Harold a run.

[SterioDesign]

Myers is a big cap problem, if not nightmare, although the real dollars he's owed are manageable.  Doesn't make sense though.  Buffalo has way too much invested in him.  From the Devils standpoint, it doesn't solve the problem, too many defensemen. 

 

we have too many defensemen yes, half of them are either too old / slow or expensive for what they bring. We can CERTAINLY have a better D corps than what we have now.I dont know why people stick that we're okay on D. Every game we're almost sure to get a penalty for delay of game just cause one of those will flip the puck in the stands.

 

for the cap hit and everything considered who would you rather have between

 

• a 23 years old calder winner for 5.5 a year for 6 years

• 37 years old Salvador at 3m for 3 years

•  34 years old Tallinder at 3.3 for 2 years

• 30 years old Volchenkov at 4.2 for 4 years

 

 ?

Edited by SterioDesign, 22 February 2013 - 01:11 PM.

[hargsy]

I really think Lou and Pete are playing Tallinder to get him back into game shape so he can be moved for more than a 5th round pick.

Fayne is part of the future and he knows it, he's just being a good team-player in sitting till Tally is gone.

[ATLL765]

I really think Lou and Pete are playing Tallinder to get him back into game shape so he can be moved for more than a 5th round pick.

Fayne is part of the future and he knows it, he's just being a good team-player in sitting till Tally is gone.

 

There's no doubt in my mind Tallinder won't be here come trade deadline day. I absolutely agree that this is all being done to get him to start looking good enough to send him packing for a deadline acquisition.

[halfsharkalligatorhalfman]

I liked Tallinder a lot the last two years before he got hurt. I thought he was the best Devils Dman.

The Devils have this logjam at D it appears that seems to be caused by two things

1. Their Dmen do not have trade value
2. Re-signing Salvador and naming him Captain

I understand 1. and it's both a gift and curse since the Devils have signed a very good D for not a ton of money. Tallinder would have so much more value if he got PP points or highlight reel hits it seems. But because of 2 they have to dance around this wholly unnecessary logjam instead of purging Salvador (at least that's what it sounds like).

Edited by halfsharkalligatorhalfman, 22 February 2013 - 02:55 PM.