Actuarial science (math & stats for risk assessment in insurance, finance etc.) proves itself to be correct in the majority of cases because the data sets are huge, so relevant statistical consistencies can be identified. Baseball is such a HUGE game -- big leagues - huge teams, LOOOOONG games - there is a way to put the stats to work for you. Hockey's data sets are just too small to start with.
Hockey stats (I think) are trying to get there -- that's why we get new stats like Corsis and Fenwicks --- but it's not quite there yet. The game is too fast and short and players are too transient - teams, coaches, styles of play, -- man even the RULES!!!! The equipment -- it's just a game in constant flux on and off the ice -- and you can't play "Moneypuck" with that, as appealing as it may be.
Now I'm going to be an ass
and too many guys here have cowed the board into this stupid group think and making people feel defensive and lacking in knowledge over NOTHING - not one proven point -- guys just get told "logic dictates.. blahblahblah..." and no earth shattering prediction has come to pass on this board thanks to stats.
Sometimes I find the stats posts to be really fun and thought provoking until one of the guys has to go all "YOU'RE STUPID" if you disagree with his subjective assumption - it's not the same guy always, I dont mean to be finger pointing - it's a state of mind. There's never any room for another take. They always the pick and choose who they respond to - if it can be a winning battle for the stats loving types, they start in. If a valid point is made, they generally just ignore the post.
This post will be ignored - no part acknowledged - not even the first half about why statistics aren't there yet for the game of hockey. It's a great conversation that should be had -- but it won't be, will it? Why not? Because the discussion must be within stats lover guidelines, his boundaries, his comfort zone – if there is a chance he’ll lose control or be lead away from his proven strategy, he won’t go. And it’s sad because this is about discussion not “winning” at least that’s what used to make the board good. That, and the jokes. I still like it here and love what lots of people say -- and being weird and stuff. and I love the Devils and Devils hockey and no one else in the universe does who isn't here even just lurking!! REALLY!!!