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Sports Club Stats - Playoff Chances


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#1 lucifer91

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Posted 14 March 2013 - 07:34 AM

http://www.sportsclu...ts.com/NHL.html

 

I don't understand how the Rangers have like 70% chance of making the playoffs while the Devils have 57% chance.  I understand the Rangers have more games in hand but still they still need to actually win them.  Any stats dudes care to explain?


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#2 Devils731

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Posted 14 March 2013 - 07:52 AM

http://www.sportsclu...ts.com/NHL.html

 

I don't understand how the Rangers have like 70% chance of making the playoffs while the Devils have 57% chance.  I understand the Rangers have more games in hand but still they still need to actually win them.  Any stats dudes care to explain?

 

You're looking at weighted, so that takes into account opponents record when deciding if a team will win or lose a game in the future.  The system also includes a "home field advantage" of 4% which I'm not sure helps or hurts his model.  It also includes tie breakers, so that can factor in as well.

 

So the less games played the weaker the guys predictions will be, since this whole season is going to be short his numbers are going to be inaccurate and swing wildly pretty much until the playoffs start.

 

A real general guessing game like this guy uses works pretty well with lots of data over a long period of time, it's arguable he'll never really get enough data in 1 full hockey season to tell a great story and a shortened season heightens the lack of data.


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