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#181 caron14

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Posted 02 April 2013 - 01:08 PM

Trade tallinder that is all i ask!


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#182 hystyk28

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Posted 02 April 2013 - 01:10 PM

The NHL is not a special teams league.  It is a 5 on 5 league.  And Jagr is not good at the shootout and there was a big controversy with him refusing to take shootouts when he was a Ranger.

 

Where did I say Jagr was for shootouts? 

 

You better believe this team is all about special teams and it will ride either the success or the failures accordingly.  

 

Last year the team was tremendous at shootouts.

Last year the PK broke the modern day era kill percentage.

 

The team isn't composed of guys that can win a Cup with their 5 on 5 offense, especially with the well documented goal deficit from the lost players form last season.They need a top 10 power play to be successful.  Hopefully over the remaining games they figure it out.  If not, you will clearly be able to see that the poor PP and the inability put the puck by the goalie in the shootout will doom this team to no dance ticket.

 

Jagr(A bruin now I believe) would have added a half wall presence that we simply don't have.  

 

The PP as it currently configured is a joke.  Did you see how hard the Islanders pressed because they knew exactly where every pass was going?

I'd like to know why the don't use Carter on the PP.

 

Fix the PP you fix this team.


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#183 Daniel

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Posted 02 April 2013 - 01:11 PM

Did the Devils get way better with Kovalchuk on the PP in 2009-10?  I know everyone thought they would.  I don't think they did.  Nor do I think they've really gotten better in general because of him.

 

How much do you really think you can improve a power play by adding Jagr and replacing someone else on the top unit?  How many more goals would you score?

 

The question is whether the powerplay is better with Kovalchuk than without him, not whether the numbers improved over a two month period.  Since you cannot recreate the world to account for the powerplay without him, it's very difficult, if not impossible to quantify it.  Perhaps if he's out for long period of time, you could quantify it.  But still, like they do at ILWT, you would have to go through all the powerplay goals that were scored in his absence to determine how many of those goals were quirky, caused by bad goaltending, etc., rather than coming up with some arbitrary number that accounts for "luck".  (I'll also add that in previous posts, you've said that Kovalchuk is excellent on the PP and penalty killing).  And as Sterio commented, a lot of it has to do with coaching, i.e., just setting up Kovalchuk for a bombs away from the point that most decent goalies will stop.  Ultimately though, I'll stick with Occam's razor that offensively talented players help make a powerplay better.

 

Honestly, I can't speak to Jagr in particular, since I haven't seen him play at all this year, and don't know how much gas he has left in the tank. I tend to trust MacIassac's argument that he would make the PP better.


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#184 maxpower

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Posted 02 April 2013 - 01:15 PM

What in the world would be the point of trading for Jagr?    They're not a fringe contender that needs to make themselves better to make a run.    They're a fringe playoff team right now, if that.    He's not someone you're going to have in your plans past this season.   It's just throwing stuff away.


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#185 mrthemike

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Posted 02 April 2013 - 01:17 PM

Jagr's going to the Bruins, you guys can drop it now.


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#186 hystyk28

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Posted 02 April 2013 - 01:19 PM

Say what?  That's true if we're talking about someone like Ponikarovsky.  But, what do you know, talented offensive players are not guys that you're just "sticking in there". 

 

It's off topic, but the biggest problem with stat geeks is this urge to try an isolate a few factors and conclude that's what makes a team good. 

 

You beat me to it. The game is just too dynamic to play moneypuck.  That PP goal for the Islanders last night was a huge goal that may go a long way to propel them into a spot.


Edited by hystyk28, 02 April 2013 - 01:33 PM.

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#187 Marshall

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Posted 02 April 2013 - 01:20 PM

The deadline shows tomorrow will be so full of awkwardness and filler.


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#188 Elias26

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Posted 02 April 2013 - 01:31 PM

Jagr's going to the Bruins, you guys can drop it now.

 

Yep, according to the Bruins fans they have already won the cup now.


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#189 hystyk28

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Posted 02 April 2013 - 01:31 PM

What in the world would be the point of trading for Jagr?    They're not a fringe contender that needs to make themselves better to make a run.    They're a fringe playoff team right now, if that.    He's not someone you're going to have in your plans past this season.   It's just throwing stuff away.

 

If that is the case, they should have traded Parise last season then. Because, this team as it sits isn't far off from what they had last year. As both teams last year in the Finals demonstrated, you just need to get in.  Also, they need to keep selling tickets, but missing the playoffs is always a key to selling more tickets for the next year, right? Let's not forget this team still needs outside capital infusion.

 

The price in a trade, especially, a deadline deal is always an issue, but 2 low level prospects and a conditional 2nd isn't breaking any franchise.


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#190 maxpower

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Posted 02 April 2013 - 01:42 PM

If that is the case, they should have traded Parise last season then. Because, this team as it sits isn't far off from what they had last year. As both teams last year in the Finals demonstrated, you just need to get in.  Also, they need to keep selling tickets, but missing the playoffs is always a key to selling more tickets for the next year, right? Let's not forget this team still needs outside capital infusion.

 

The price in a trade, especially, a deadline deal is always an issue, but 2 low level prospects and a conditional 2nd isn't breaking any franchise.

 

They're way off from last year with an equal amount of time remaining.   Taking on a thousand year old forward isn't going to help them a whole lot, even as well as he's playing, because he has no potential future with the team.

 

There's no logical reason to think this team is making a run if they get in.    They are going to get splattered.    Tune in on Thursday for a demonstration.


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#191 Triumph

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Posted 02 April 2013 - 01:49 PM

Where did I say Jagr was for shootouts? 

 

You better believe this team is all about special teams and it will ride either the success or the failures accordingly.  

 

Last year the team was tremendous at shootouts.

Last year the PK broke the modern day era kill percentage.

 

The team isn't composed of guys that can win a Cup with their 5 on 5 offense, especially with the well documented goal deficit from the lost players form last season.They need a top 10 power play to be successful.  Hopefully over the remaining games they figure it out.  If not, you will clearly be able to see that the poor PP and the inability put the puck by the goalie in the shootout will doom this team to no dance ticket.

 

Jagr(A bruin now I believe) would have added a half wall presence that we simply don't have.  

 

The PP as it currently configured is a joke.  Did you see how hard the Islanders pressed because they knew exactly where every pass was going?

I'd like to know why the don't use Carter on the PP.

 

Fix the PP you fix this team.

 

The Devils had 1 power play last night.  

 

So we should have the team set records or it's worthless?  How good was that penalty kill in the playoffs?  Easy to set records when the goalie's stopping an inordinate number of shots, like Brodeur and Hedberg did in last year's regular season.  Harder to do when they can't stop a beach ball, like in last year's playoffs.

 

The power play is fine.  It's going to miss Kovalchuk and slide back to being middle of the road, but there's talented players who can score.  Everyone thinks their power play is too static when it's not scoring and that it's amazing when it's on a hot streak.

 

Teams who think in these terms lose out to teams who don't.  Jagr gives a dynamic presence?  How many goals is that worth over the rest of the season?  You can't put a definite number on it, but you can put a range on it.  I'll give you a hint, it's not that high.

 

The question is whether the powerplay is better with Kovalchuk than without him, not whether the numbers improved over a two month period.  Since you cannot recreate the world to account for the powerplay without him, it's very difficult, if not impossible to quantify it.  Perhaps if he's out for long period of time, you could quantify it.  But still, like they do at ILWT, you would have to go through all the powerplay goals that were scored in his absence to determine how many of those goals were quirky, caused by bad goaltending, etc., rather than coming up with some arbitrary number that accounts for "luck".  (I'll also add that in previous posts, you've said that Kovalchuk is excellent on the PP and penalty killing).  And as Sterio commented, a lot of it has to do with coaching, i.e., just setting up Kovalchuk for a bombs away from the point that most decent goalies will stop.  Ultimately though, I'll stick with Occam's razor that offensively talented players help make a powerplay better.

 

Honestly, I can't speak to Jagr in particular, since I haven't seen him play at all this year, and don't know how much gas he has left in the tank. I tend to trust MacIassac's argument that he would make the PP better.

 

I like a lot of what ILWT does, but going through all the goals scored against the goaltenders is one of the more inane things they do.  Going through power plays like this would be even more inane.  Even if you wanted to say Jagr increases PP shooting percentage - and maybe he does - you can still put a number to these things.  Figure out how many PP goals you think Jagr would be on the ice for.  There's 12 games left in the season, so figure that's what, 48 PPs on average?  Most likely outcomes would have the Devils scoring between 6 and 12 goals on those PPs - that sounds about sensible, right?  Maybe widen it out a bit to 5-13.  Then go back and start figuring out if shots rates and shooting percentage rates increased, how many goals you could 'attribute' to Jagr.  But again, that means thinking that goals are largely random events, which I know you don't.



They're way off from last year with an equal amount of time remaining.   Taking on a thousand year old forward isn't going to help them a whole lot, even as well as he's playing, because he has no potential future with the team.

 

There's no logical reason to think this team is making a run if they get in.    They are going to get splattered.    Tune in on Thursday for a demonstration.

 

Only thing markedly different is the awful goaltending.  They're fine otherwise.


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#192 maxpower

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Posted 02 April 2013 - 01:52 PM

The Devils had 1 power play last night.  

 

So we should have the team set records or it's worthless?  How good was that penalty kill in the playoffs?  Easy to set records when the goalie's stopping an inordinate number of shots, like Brodeur and Hedberg did in last year's regular season.  Harder to do when they can't stop a beach ball, like in last year's playoffs.

 

The power play is fine.  It's going to miss Kovalchuk and slide back to being middle of the road, but there's talented players who can score.  Everyone thinks their power play is too static when it's not scoring and that it's amazing when it's on a hot streak.

 

Teams who think in these terms lose out to teams who don't.  Jagr gives a dynamic presence?  How many goals is that worth over the rest of the season?  You can't put a definite number on it, but you can put a range on it.  I'll give you a hint, it's not that high.

 

 

I like a lot of what ILWT does, but going through all the goals scored against the goaltenders is one of the more inane things they do.  Going through power plays like this would be even more inane.  Even if you wanted to say Jagr increases PP shooting percentage - and maybe he does - you can still put a number to these things.  Figure out how many PP goals you think Jagr would be on the ice for.  There's 12 games left in the season, so figure that's what, 48 PPs on average?  Most likely outcomes would have the Devils scoring between 6 and 12 goals on those PPs - that sounds about sensible, right?  Maybe widen it out a bit to 5-13.  Then go back and start figuring out if shots rates and shooting percentage rates increased, how many goals you could 'attribute' to Jagr.  But again, that means thinking that goals are largely random events, which I know you don't.



 

Only thing markedly different is the awful goaltending.  They're fine otherwise.

 

No, they're not.   They have no offense to speak of at even strength and the PK is much worse.   Although that would be expected as it was unsustainable for much of last season.


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#193 maxpower

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Posted 02 April 2013 - 01:57 PM

I mean, last season the PK was -12 in 82 games, and backtracked into that number, they were flirting with even past this point in the season.   This year, we're -17 in 36 games, and that's while being MORE efficient offensively on the PK.


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#194 Triumph

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Posted 02 April 2013 - 02:05 PM

No, they're not.   They have no offense to speak of at even strength and the PK is much worse.   Although that would be expected as it was unsustainable for much of last season.

 

They gave up as many short handed goals as they scored.  Their goalies stink.  Shots given up per 60 minutes are about the same.  And even strength offense is totally unpredictable - yes, their offense is bad, but it was also bad last year.


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#195 maxpower

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Posted 02 April 2013 - 02:07 PM

They gave up as many short handed goals as they scored.  Their goalies stink.  Shots given up per 60 minutes are about the same.  And even strength offense is totally unpredictable - yes, their offense is bad, but it was also bad last year.

 

So, you're just going to ignore that they had the best PK likely in the history of hockey (by % metric it is, by +/- it probably is) last season and it's far, far from that this season.    Alrighty, I know it's hard for you to admit you're wrong, but you're wrong.


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#196 Triumph

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Posted 02 April 2013 - 02:15 PM

So, you're just going to ignore that they had the best PK likely in the history of hockey (by % metric it is, by +/- it probably is) last season and it's far, far from that this season.    Alrighty, I know it's hard for you to admit you're wrong, but you're wrong.

 

I am saying that the Devils' goalies posting the save percentage they did on the PK was totally unsustainable, and the playoffs to some extent bear that out.  Save percentage by game state last year:

 

5v5:   .909

5v4:   .833

4v5:   .920

 

This year:

 

5v5:  .906

5v4:  .880

4v5:  .837

 

When I say they're the same, I mean they're giving up the same shots/60.  Obviously they were never going to repeat last year, but if the goalies weren't earth-shatteringly horrible, maybe things would even out more.  The Devils should be a plus team on special teams, they're in the top 10 for shots/60 on the PP and in the bottom 10 in shots against on the PK.  That's why I say 'they're the same'.  I don't put much stock in results based solely on goals when it comes to evaluating playoff teams.


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#197 maxpower

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Posted 02 April 2013 - 02:22 PM

But you can't account for the quality of shots.    That's the problem.   If the goalies suck this year, they weren't much better last year.    You don't get to even on the PK 30 or so games into the season just "because".    They played great on the PK and it was one of the only two redeeming things about them, which was their "resiliency".    Which from watching this season you could probably just write off as luck and being good in the post-regulation portions of games.

 

Without either, (their PK isn't awful because of all the SH goals they score, just mediocre)... you get what you have here this year, which is a team that can't win games.


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#198 hystyk28

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Posted 02 April 2013 - 02:31 PM

The Devils had 1 power play last night.  

 

So we should have the team set records or it's worthless?  How good was that penalty kill in the playoffs?  Easy to set records when the goalie's stopping an inordinate number of shots, like Brodeur and Hedberg did in last year's regular season.  Harder to do when they can't stop a beach ball, like in last year's playoffs.

 

The power play is fine.  It's going to miss Kovalchuk and slide back to being middle of the road, but there's talented players who can score.  Everyone thinks their power play is too static when it's not scoring and that it's amazing when it's on a hot streak.

 

Teams who think in these terms lose out to teams who don't.  Jagr gives a dynamic presence?  How many goals is that worth over the rest of the season?  You can't put a definite number on it, but you can put a range on it.  I'll give you a hint, it's not that high.

 

 

I like a lot of what ILWT does, but going through all the goals scored against the goaltenders is one of the more inane things they do.  Going through power plays like this would be even more inane.  Even if you wanted to say Jagr increases PP shooting percentage - and maybe he does - you can still put a number to these things.  Figure out how many PP goals you think Jagr would be on the ice for.  There's 12 games left in the season, so figure that's what, 48 PPs on average?  Most likely outcomes would have the Devils scoring between 6 and 12 goals on those PPs - that sounds about sensible, right?  Maybe widen it out a bit to 5-13.  Then go back and start figuring out if shots rates and shooting percentage rates increased, how many goals you could 'attribute' to Jagr.  But again, that means thinking that goals are largely random events, which I know you don't.



 

Only thing markedly different is the awful goaltending.  They're fine otherwise.

Yes, that 1 PP last night is huge. The kill in the third that didn't happen is huge. The inability to kill that major in gm 6 of the Finals was huge.  Special teams are huge.  

 

This team is anything but fine.  They have no killer instinct to put teams away when they can as the Florida trip showed.  As a coach you have to make this team be able to cheat and steal points every night.  The PP and the shootout is how you do it.  You also implement some changes to your style of play. If Jacques Leamire survived watching the games over the weekend I'd be surprised. TRAP IT UP! 2 points just pissed away.

 

I'd personally like to see Gio and Kostouloupisesuouses out.  If JJ is healthy enough, bring him back along with Sestitio or Pesonen.  

 

Barch should be in over Glass Jaw Kosto.  I said to my girlfriend during the Tampa game that Tom was a bad fighter(he closed his eyes during the Gudas fight) and that he could get hurt the next time he dropped them.  I am really not even sure how this guy is in the NHL.


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#199 CarpathianForest

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Posted 02 April 2013 - 03:04 PM

Jagr to Bruins for two prospects and conditional pick.

 

The options for Lou are getting slimmer and slimmer.


Edited by CarpathianForest, 02 April 2013 - 03:05 PM.

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#200 CarpathianForest

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Posted 02 April 2013 - 03:08 PM

I could see Detroit as a possible destination for one of our D. After the drubbing the got from Chicago and losing out on JBow, they're still in need of a DMan. Don't expect anything really great back. Perhaps Eaves, Miller or Abdelkader.


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