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#201 Triumph

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Posted 02 April 2013 - 03:20 PM

But you can't account for the quality of shots.    That's the problem.   If the goalies suck this year, they weren't much better last year.    You don't get to even on the PK 30 or so games into the season just "because".    They played great on the PK and it was one of the only two redeeming things about them, which was their "resiliency".    Which from watching this season you could probably just write off as luck and being good in the post-regulation portions of games.

 

Without either, (their PK isn't awful because of all the SH goals they score, just mediocre)... you get what you have here this year, which is a team that can't win games.

 

If you think the Devils' quality of shots given up on the PK is why the goalies had a 920 SV% and an .837 SV% this year, I don't know what to tell you, except that penalty killing would be even more unpredictable than it is now.  Is there some 'shot quality' in there?  Almost certainly, yeah.  Is it why the Devils are giving up goals on twice as many shots?  I cannot believe that it even accounts for half.

 

You get to even on the PK 30 games in not just because, but you need a giant dose of luck to do so.  You need to prevent shots really well, you need to score on a huge % of your shots, and you need great goaltending.  Three things which the Devils got.  The Devils are getting two of those things this year, but goaltending is the biggest part, and that's the one they're not getting.  It's also something they didn't get in the playoffs. Also you're not remembering that the Devils were about even on the PP too, but that doesn't fit into the narrative.


Edited by Triumph, 02 April 2013 - 03:20 PM.

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#202 TheMazz

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Posted 02 April 2013 - 03:22 PM

I could see Detroit as a possible destination for one of our D. After the drubbing the got from Chicago and losing out on JBow, they're still in need of a DMan. Don't expect anything really great back. Perhaps Eaves, Miller or Abdelkader.

 

Abdelkader I wouldn't mind. The guy has been on a warm streak as of late. But we need a goal scorer not a "streaky player". I don't know why Lou would feel the need to trade for someone with a career 18 goals.


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#203 JRZYRIPPER

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Posted 02 April 2013 - 03:24 PM

Heard somewhere devils are in the mix for Erik nystrom from Dallas??? Eh
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#204 TheMazz

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Posted 02 April 2013 - 03:27 PM

Do you remember the source?


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#205 maxpower

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Posted 02 April 2013 - 03:28 PM

If you think the Devils' quality of shots given up on the PK is why the goalies had a 920 SV% and an .837 SV% this year, I don't know what to tell you, except that penalty killing would be even more unpredictable than it is now.  Is there some 'shot quality' in there?  Almost certainly, yeah.  Is it why the Devils are giving up goals on twice as many shots?  I cannot believe that it even accounts for half.

 

You get to even on the PK 30 games in not just because, but you need a giant dose of luck to do so.  You need to prevent shots really well, you need to score on a huge % of your shots, and you need great goaltending.  Three things which the Devils got.  The Devils are getting two of those things this year, but goaltending is the biggest part, and that's the one they're not getting.  It's also something they didn't get in the playoffs. Also you're not remembering that the Devils were about even on the PP too, but that doesn't fit into the narrative.

 

What narrative, I've said a million times I think the PP is the least important segment of the game.   

 

They were a much better defensive team last year with 4 than they were with 5.   I don't know why, but they were.   You're overplaying the importance of the goalies in the difference.   It's not as if every PP goal they're giving up is an unscreened shot from the point.    The one last night, how many times is that being stopped?  5 out of 1,000?    And those 5 times would have nothing to do with the goalie.   Would either hit Sal or miss.


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#206 Pepperkorn

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Posted 02 April 2013 - 03:28 PM

Hey, Bobby was cooler than JP.

 

 

 

Heard somewhere devils are in the mix for Erik nystrom from Dallas??? Eh


Edited by Pepperkorn, 02 April 2013 - 03:29 PM.

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#207 Devs1965

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Posted 02 April 2013 - 03:35 PM

Sit Back and expect nothing !!! Thats Lou! Unless its a steal he he will not budge and yes we most likely will lose Clarkson for more than he's worth as a UFA because I just dont see it.

Being a Devils fan is always expect the least and your victory's feel so much better!!

Im sorry I should say that different but being a long time Devils fan Lou has built from within and traded here and and there but we have always been the underdog even when it come to our own fans!!

Lets Go Devils!!!!!


Edited by Devs1965, 02 April 2013 - 03:40 PM.

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#208 Triumph

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Posted 02 April 2013 - 03:37 PM

What narrative, I've said a million times I think the PP is the least important segment of the game.   

 

They were a much better defensive team last year with 4 than they were with 5.   I don't know why, but they were.   You're overplaying the importance of the goalies in the difference.   It's not as if every PP goal they're giving up is an unscreened shot from the point.    The one last night, how many times is that being stopped?  5 out of 1,000?    And those 5 times would have nothing to do with the goalie.   Would either hit Sal or miss.

 

I was waiting for last night's goal to be brought up.  I am not overplaying the difference.  The Devils gave up 26.3 shots per 60 minutes last year at 5v5.  They gave up 42.7 shots per 60 minutes 4v5.  You're telling me that all those extra shots were of the same quality faced at even strength?  Or that they were worse, somehow?

 

Goalies have great years on the PK, it happens.  It's why Ryan Miller exploded that one year.  Tuukka Rask is having one this year for Boston, which is why they're killing 90% of the penalties this year (that and they are doing a fantastic job on the PK).  But you've got to have your goalie stopping the shots, and right now NJ isn't getting that.

 

Right now NJ is +42.5 shots per 60 on the 5v4 PP and -30.3 shots per 4v5 60 on the PK.  +10 shots/60 is probably one of the best differentials in the league, but they're only +2 on 5v4 and 4v5 special teams.


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#209 sundstrom

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Posted 02 April 2013 - 03:44 PM

What narrative, I've said a million times I think the PP is the least important segment of the game.   

 

They were a much better defensive team last year with 4 than they were with 5.   I don't know why, but they were.   You're overplaying the importance of the goalies in the difference.   It's not as if every PP goal they're giving up is an unscreened shot from the point.    The one last night, how many times is that being stopped?  5 out of 1,000?    And those 5 times would have nothing to do with the goalie.   Would either hit Sal or miss.

 

i was also waiting for someone to bring it up. last night's PP goal isn't about "shot quality." sure it was a wide open net? But why did it happen? Marty caused the penalty then played it horribly going down way early and being in no position to deal when a shot/pass went to the other side.

 

he is not good anymore - he has great streaks like philly and the rangers but those are extremely few and far between now. this is one of those where the stats AND your eyes should tell you he's not been good for years.


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#210 CarpathianForest

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Posted 02 April 2013 - 03:44 PM

You know you guys could just message each other instead of bickering in the trade thread.


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#211 maxpower

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Posted 02 April 2013 - 03:47 PM

I was waiting for last night's goal to be brought up.  I am not overplaying the difference.  The Devils gave up 26.3 shots per 60 minutes last year at 5v5.  They gave up 42.7 shots per 60 minutes 4v5.  You're telling me that all those extra shots were of the same quality faced at even strength?  Or that they were worse, somehow?

 

Goalies have great years on the PK, it happens.  It's why Ryan Miller exploded that one year.  Tuukka Rask is having one this year for Boston, which is why they're killing 90% of the penalties this year (that and they are doing a fantastic job on the PK).  But you've got to have your goalie stopping the shots, and right now NJ isn't getting that.

 

Right now NJ is +42.5 shots per 60 on the 5v4 PP and -30.3 shots per 4v5 60 on the PK.  +10 shots/60 is probably one of the best differentials in the league, but they're only +2 on 5v4 and 4v5 special teams.

 

I don't think Marty is any better or worse than he was last season.   Moose?  Okay, fine with him.  So yeah, I think the shot quality last year on the PK probably was not the same as it's been this year.    It has to be that way, because otherwise they would have more goals scored on them, because if your PK breaks down and gives up unstoppable chances, you're going to give up more goals.

 

Nobody's going to know one way or another, because that involves watching alot of game film or having a photographic memory.   My main takeaway from last season is that they were inexplicably better at keeping opponents out of the crease/slot with 4 defenders than they were with 5.   This year they pretty much suck at it no matter the situation.


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#212 maxpower

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Posted 02 April 2013 - 03:56 PM

You know you guys could just message each other instead of bickering in the trade thread.

 

It's kind of blown up, but my point initially was that we're not good at anything and there's really no point in making any additions.    They should be a light seller instead.    They can't score, their PP isn't very good, the goaltending this year is lacking, they can't defend particularly well, and the PK fell back to earth when last year it's one of the key reasons we made the playoffs easily, instead of being in the spot we're in now.


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#213 maniacdevsdude

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Posted 02 April 2013 - 03:59 PM

You guys are getting yourselves worked up over nothing. In all liklihood, Lou will not make any moves tomorrow because he feels confident in the roster we have. Every year we go through this, with trade speculation and newswire gossip. All it will do is get your hopes up for nothing, heh. Just be content with what we have becuase I would almost guarantee that's how Lou sees it.


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#214 Devil Dan 56

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Posted 02 April 2013 - 04:06 PM

You guys are getting yourselves worked up over nothing. In all liklihood, Lou will not make any moves tomorrow because he feels confident in the roster we have. Every year we go through this, with trade speculation and newswire gossip. All it will do is get your hopes up for nothing, heh. Just be content with what we have becuase I would almost guarantee that's how Lou sees it.


This. Additionally, I don't think Lou believes in "buyers and sellers". He doesn't make moves to makes moves. He makes them to improve the team.
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#215 NJDevs4978

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Posted 02 April 2013 - 04:10 PM

Keeping all eight defensemen has been a net negative from the start though, they really need to trade off one of those guys before we damage Fayne and Larsson's future anymore.  The eight D rotation hasn't really helped anyone, except two of the three guys who've avoided it (Greene, Zidlicky).


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#216 SterioDesign

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Posted 02 April 2013 - 04:11 PM

This. Additionally, I don't think Lou believes in "buyers and sellers". He doesn't make moves to makes moves. He makes them to improve the team.

 

yup and if im Lou im not taking any other players unless they are signed a few years. I sound like a broken record but he should TRY to get 2nd round picks somehow considering our depth on D.


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#217 SterioDesign

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Posted 02 April 2013 - 04:14 PM

Keeping all eight defensemen has been a net negative from the start though, they really need to trade off one of those guys before we damage Fayne and Larsson's future anymore.  The eight D rotation hasn't really helped anyone, except two of the three guys who've avoided it (Greene, Zidlicky).

 

absolutely. Salvador also avoided it... the only games he missed was because of injuries.

 

To keep all those 8 dmen was comparable to keep an extra guy in 2010 and there was that black cloud on top of the locker room for the longest time cause the players knew someone would get shipped somewhere. Lou admitted himself that it was a mistake.

 

The young guys knows that if they play a bad game they are out next game.

 

edit: plus we didnt see any difference in the team play with any dmen out. im 110% convinced that we wouldnt be a worst team with

 

Larsson Green

Fayne Tallinder

Harrold Zids

 

and whoever we could call up from the AHL to give them experience and patch holes.

 

A-Train and Volchenkov are useless to me and pretty expensive for what they bring.


Edited by SterioDesign, 02 April 2013 - 04:18 PM.

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#218 Triumph

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Posted 02 April 2013 - 04:20 PM

Keeping all eight defensemen has been a net negative from the start though, they really need to trade off one of those guys before we damage Fayne and Larsson's future anymore.  The eight D rotation hasn't really helped anyone, except two of the three guys who've avoided it (Greene, Zidlicky).

 

Fayne's future?  He turns 26 in a month.  He's a UFA next year.  He is what he is - which by the way is really good and underrated.  Someone will probably get a great bargain on him.  But that's where he's at.

 

This is nothing like 2010, nothing at all - it's the opposite.  I think complaining about people making mistakes and being sat is ridiculous - if the Devils had no defensive depth, the claim would be 'Oh, these guys can screw up and there's no pressure on them to succeed'.


Edited by Triumph, 02 April 2013 - 04:21 PM.

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#219 NJDevils1214

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Posted 02 April 2013 - 04:22 PM

Do you remember the source?

Єklund (2.3% accurate) has it up  :giggle:


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#220 SterioDesign

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Posted 02 April 2013 - 04:27 PM

Fayne's future?  He turns 26 in a month.  He's a UFA next year.  He is what he is - which by the way is really good and underrated.  Someone will probably get a great bargain on him.  But that's where he's at.

 

This is nothing like 2010, nothing at all - it's the opposite.  I think complaining about people making mistakes and being sat is ridiculous - if the Devils had no defensive depth, the claim would be 'Oh, these guys can screw up and there's no pressure on them to succeed'.

 

is that ignoring the fact that most teams in the league are not carrying 8 full time nhl dmen or ignoring the depth we have in the NHL ? not sure which one it is?


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