But you can't account for the quality of shots. That's the problem. If the goalies suck this year, they weren't much better last year. You don't get to even on the PK 30 or so games into the season just "because". They played great on the PK and it was one of the only two redeeming things about them, which was their "resiliency". Which from watching this season you could probably just write off as luck and being good in the post-regulation portions of games.
Without either, (their PK isn't awful because of all the SH goals they score, just mediocre)... you get what you have here this year, which is a team that can't win games.
If you think the Devils' quality of shots given up on the PK is why the goalies had a 920 SV% and an .837 SV% this year, I don't know what to tell you, except that penalty killing would be even more unpredictable than it is now. Is there some 'shot quality' in there? Almost certainly, yeah. Is it why the Devils are giving up goals on twice as many shots? I cannot believe that it even accounts for half.
You get to even on the PK 30 games in not just because, but you need a giant dose of luck to do so. You need to prevent shots really well, you need to score on a huge % of your shots, and you need great goaltending. Three things which the Devils got. The Devils are getting two of those things this year, but goaltending is the biggest part, and that's the one they're not getting. It's also something they didn't get in the playoffs. Also you're not remembering that the Devils were about even on the PP too, but that doesn't fit into the narrative.
Edited by Triumph, 02 April 2013 - 03:20 PM.