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#181 sundstrom

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Posted 02 April 2013 - 09:25 AM

The Devils were 16-6 in OT/shootout games last year.  They are 3-9 this year.   Parise was a big part of that with his shootout ability, there's no doubt, but people think last year's team was this amazing club - they snuck into 6th by virtue of dominating the shootout and OT.  Had they gone 6-16, like the Devils would be on pace to do in an 82 game season, they would've been tied for 8th place with the Senators and Capitals, and certainly would've been in much more of a dogfight for the playoffs.

 

this is an amazing point that doesn't get enough play. think about it - if the devils are 6 and 6 in OT/Shootout, that's 3 more points which shockingly changes the whole complexion of a lot of arguments.

 

what are the reasons the devils are where they are right now?

 

1) Bad Goaltending

2) Bad OT/Shoot Out Record

3) Low S%

4) Injuries

5) Poor Use of Lines (i.e. Gionta)

 

That's it guys - in that order.


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#182 Colorado Rockies 1976

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Posted 02 April 2013 - 09:38 AM

People care because the Devils used to be better than everyone in getting that extra point come shootout time, which helps to cover up ills. For the first time, they're not. Look at it this way: if the Devils are having their typical shootout success, they're 5-3 or 6-2 in shootouts this season, instead of 2-6. So instead of 15-11-9, they're 18-11-6 or 19-11-5. The record suddenly looks a whole lot better, even though it's just a silly skills competition that would make the Devils suddenly appear to be so much better than they've really been.

 

We were talking about this on another thread (the Coaching Loss one) yesterday.  This is yet another reason why I don't like shootouts.  Would the Devils really be so much better that their record would suggest if they were enjoying their usual shootout domination? 

 

sundstrom, yeah, you pretty much nailed it, though low shooting% for + low save% for is clearly going to lead to problems, for obvious reasons.  Kind of hard for a team of questionable talent to have to outshoot its opponent by a good margin every night to have a chance to win.   


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THE NHL MUST LOVE THE DEVILS - from who else? A RANGER fan!
[Mark Messier]: A big, bald attention whore with a stupid Easter Island-lookin face. - from who else? DaneykoIsGod!

Even when Marty comes back maybe Larry should put Clemmensen to be on the goal during the shootouts.
Can the coach do that ? Switch the goalies 5 seconds to go in overtime?
- Most priceless quote ever posted on a message board.

Martin Brodeur: THE MOST ALL-TIME WINS!, 12 straight seasons of 30+ wins, 3 Stanley Cups, 4 Vezina Trophies, and zero respect from too many so-called Devils "fans" who are either too young or too bandwagon to remember the much darker days of Sean Burke, Craig Billington, Bob Sauve, Alain Chevrier, and the talented but overwhelmed Chico Resch, among many others.

It's easy to support a great player when he's playing at his very best. It takes a true fan to support that same player during those rare moments and stretches when he's not. Babe Ruth went 0-4 some games, and sometimes Wayne Gretzky was held pointless. There may be such a thing as greatness, but no such thing as absolute perfection every single night.

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20 out of 1,946 njdevs.com members agree: CR1976 is the Most Knowledgable Poster of 2008! Victory is mine...oh yes, victory is mine!

#183 Pepperkorn

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Posted 02 April 2013 - 09:39 AM

Why are those so poor?

 

What can be done to fix it?

 

It's really easy to point out the facts.  They're facts.

 

What's to be done about it?  THAT is what people are asking -- are ALWAYS asking.  Not for the board to identify the second articulation of the problem  -- not an explanation as to how things add up but the WHY?????

 

 

THAT IS THE STATS ARGUMENT.  THERE IS NEVER A SOLUTION -- ONLY NEW EMPIRICAL DATA. EVEN WITH ALL THIS DATA IT ALL BOILS DOWN TO THE HYPOTHETICAL PRIOR TO TAKING ACTION. YOU CANNOT CHANGE THAT.  THERE IS NO SET SOLUTION AND NO AMOUNT OF REPHRASING THE PROBLEM WILL GET YOU TO PRACTICAL OR PRAGMATIC. 

 

Fixing a problem involves CONFLICT.  DEAL WITH IT.  GIVE ME A SOLUTION!!!! It's like refusing to plan an experiment - just constantly coming up new ways to look at the data and never a way to use it.  it's like you do that in purpose so you're never categorically wrong. It's a straw man in and of itself. Drives me nucking FUTS  :argh:

 

just articulating what is going on internally between the two factions in the moment so no one is surprised by an outburst.  So you understand where these outburst on the board come from. 

 

sorry to take the gas out of anyone epiphany -- but when some one write "No sh!t" - it means what it means, not that they didn't take time to fully comprehend your cathartic moment, you know? 


Edited by Pepperkorn, 02 April 2013 - 09:45 AM.

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#184 Colorado Rockies 1976

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Posted 02 April 2013 - 09:59 AM

I actually understood what you were going for there for PK.  The problem is we're not GMs, though some fans think they could do the job.  Enough of us watch the game that we can interpret and analyze and debate and discuss what we see, and try to make sense of it, through what our eyes tell us and, yes, through various stats.  And as we've seen multiple times, the facts aren't always 100% clear...there's debates on the "facts".

 

The problem with the "GIVE ME A SOLUTION!!!!!" request is that, from a fan standpoint, it's almost pointless.  Too many fans' solutions consist of trade proposals that have no chance of ever happening, or are clearly an attempt to fleece another team.  Yankee fans call into the WFAN to do that all of the time...give us your superstar for four or five guys we'll barely miss.  And other solutions are usually very obvious from a fan standpoint:  Devils need a scorer.  OK.  Which one?  For what?  Easy to point out, but much harder to actually solve the problem, especially since, as we all know, so much more goes into these decisions/solutions than simply filling a roster need.  And let's face it, sometimes the solutions (at the least the quick-fix ones) aren't always there or readily available.  I don't know what Lou can really do right now, except hope that Marty has another hot streak in him, and that some of his scorers start shooting at a higher percentage (especially the ones capable of doing so).  I don't see that move out there that's going to make much of a difference in 2013, especially with Kovy not playing. 


Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976, 02 April 2013 - 10:09 AM.

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THE NHL MUST LOVE THE DEVILS - from who else? A RANGER fan!
[Mark Messier]: A big, bald attention whore with a stupid Easter Island-lookin face. - from who else? DaneykoIsGod!

Even when Marty comes back maybe Larry should put Clemmensen to be on the goal during the shootouts.
Can the coach do that ? Switch the goalies 5 seconds to go in overtime?
- Most priceless quote ever posted on a message board.

Martin Brodeur: THE MOST ALL-TIME WINS!, 12 straight seasons of 30+ wins, 3 Stanley Cups, 4 Vezina Trophies, and zero respect from too many so-called Devils "fans" who are either too young or too bandwagon to remember the much darker days of Sean Burke, Craig Billington, Bob Sauve, Alain Chevrier, and the talented but overwhelmed Chico Resch, among many others.

It's easy to support a great player when he's playing at his very best. It takes a true fan to support that same player during those rare moments and stretches when he's not. Babe Ruth went 0-4 some games, and sometimes Wayne Gretzky was held pointless. There may be such a thing as greatness, but no such thing as absolute perfection every single night.

#30 FOREVER!

20 out of 1,946 njdevs.com members agree: CR1976 is the Most Knowledgable Poster of 2008! Victory is mine...oh yes, victory is mine!

#185 Triumph

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Posted 02 April 2013 - 10:27 AM

Re:  last season's team...yeah, there's been a tendency to blow them up...that being said, after that 12-12-1 start, they did go 36-16-5, and had the Cup run, which is very easy on the eyes, regardless of how the wins came.  Most of the Devils' shakier play that season happened in those first 25 games or so.

 

The 12-12-1 start could have been a lot worse, because they were 6-1 in OT games played in that span.  Flip that around and the team is 6-12-7, which looks an awful lot worse, and would have people talking about Lemaire coming back.

 

It's a team built to play OT games, and right now the goaltending isn't getting us there. 

 

Edit:  A scorer doesn't fix the problem, it just makes the team incrementally better.  You can get a super high scoring team and think you'll rule the world and still not score, that's just how this game is.


Edited by Triumph, 02 April 2013 - 10:29 AM.

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#186 Colorado Rockies 1976

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Posted 02 April 2013 - 10:32 AM

The 12-12-1 start could have been a lot worse, because they were 6-1 in OT games played in that span.  Flip that around and the team is 6-12-7, which looks an awful lot worse, and would have people talking about Lemaire coming back.

 

It's a team built to play OT games, and right now the goaltending isn't getting us there. 

 

Edit:  A scorer doesn't fix the problem, it just makes the team incrementally better.  You can get a super high scoring team and think you'll rule the world and still not score, that's just how this game is.

 

I know, I remember that 12-12-1 start being very shaky...I was pointing out the OT+SO record a lot back then.

 

Not saying a scorer would fix the problem...just saying that when fans start trying to play GM, you'd have several that would think a scorer or two would fix a lot.  I was showing an example of what some fans would say (GET A SCORER!) Still wouldn't help with the .897 save% Devils goalies have put up. 


Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976, 02 April 2013 - 10:33 AM.

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THE NHL MUST LOVE THE DEVILS - from who else? A RANGER fan!
[Mark Messier]: A big, bald attention whore with a stupid Easter Island-lookin face. - from who else? DaneykoIsGod!

Even when Marty comes back maybe Larry should put Clemmensen to be on the goal during the shootouts.
Can the coach do that ? Switch the goalies 5 seconds to go in overtime?
- Most priceless quote ever posted on a message board.

Martin Brodeur: THE MOST ALL-TIME WINS!, 12 straight seasons of 30+ wins, 3 Stanley Cups, 4 Vezina Trophies, and zero respect from too many so-called Devils "fans" who are either too young or too bandwagon to remember the much darker days of Sean Burke, Craig Billington, Bob Sauve, Alain Chevrier, and the talented but overwhelmed Chico Resch, among many others.

It's easy to support a great player when he's playing at his very best. It takes a true fan to support that same player during those rare moments and stretches when he's not. Babe Ruth went 0-4 some games, and sometimes Wayne Gretzky was held pointless. There may be such a thing as greatness, but no such thing as absolute perfection every single night.

#30 FOREVER!

20 out of 1,946 njdevs.com members agree: CR1976 is the Most Knowledgable Poster of 2008! Victory is mine...oh yes, victory is mine!

#187 HellOnICE

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Posted 02 April 2013 - 10:57 AM

I

 

this is an amazing point that doesn't get enough play. think about it - if the devils are 6 and 6 in OT/Shootout, that's 3 more points which shockingly changes the whole complexion of a lot of arguments.

 

what are the reasons the devils are where they are right now?

 

1) Bad Goaltending

2) Bad OT/Shoot Out Record

3) Low S%

4) Injuries

5) Poor Use of Lines (i.e. Gionta)

 

That's it guys - in that order.

I agree with this for the most part. Add in, neither of Josefson or Tedenby filled any type of perceived hole.

 

I will say though Tri, depending on what deal might be out there - I think this team is one scoring winger away from slotting out to a deep team...Now of course, what team isn't I guess.

 

I was saying this in chat last night.

 

8-21-17

26-19-new winger

18-14-23

12-20-11-16

 

yes the goaltending still is weak, but with some more support  and the right matchups we could make a run.


Edited by HellOnICE, 02 April 2013 - 11:06 AM.

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#188 Pepperkorn

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Posted 02 April 2013 - 11:30 AM

Rockies - I'll say what sent me down this road - I say it all the time :evil:

 

about 11 years ago Scott Stevens quoted me nearly word for word with a locker room assessment. I knew a few silly players had gotten wind of the board and I'd bet said players taunted Scott about his insane fan.  and let's just say it immodestly - with his comments to the press, I became deluded that it was possible to add value from this distance.   Now while I know no one is listening any more -- I say it all in the off chance someone is listening one day on a lark and actually gleans a bit of insight.

 

Yeah - probably no one is listening. But they have in the past.  and now that the board is so huge and people ignore things, post redundant sh!t, moving pages - page after page of garbage no one can do anything with.  Stuff that's already known -- it's not insight only we on the outside can objectively provide.  The board is too hard to use as a tool for insight - it's information over load.  But we all feel the better for it.

 

I need to be useful.  I understand it's a delusion.  I like it that way. and just in case - I'm not going to stop until I stop caring about the team.


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