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Rumor Rater - Evaluating the Accuracy of Online Reports


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#1 thelastonealive

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Posted 04 April 2013 - 01:52 PM

http://www.nj.com/de...rate_are_n.html

 

To die-hard hockey fans, trade deadline rumors can produce excitement, anxiety and, frequently, outright vitriol when they don’t pan out. But just how accurate are they?

In an attempt to settle this question, The Star-Ledger analyzed every rumor published by three prominent hockey insiders – Єklund (2.3% accurate), HockeyyIndsiderr (the extra letters were likely required to secure a Twitter handle) and Spector’s Hockey – in the month leading up to the trade deadline. Each rumor was logged in a database and when the trade deadline passed at 3 p.m. yesterday, analyzed for accuracy and assigned a score akin to the NHL standings system. (see more about how this was done below)

At the end of the day, one of these insiders came out looking like a Stanley Cup contender, while the other two would more likely be holding a fire sale of its players at the trade deadline after a horrid season:

 

 

For those who don't know, Steve Sterling is a die-hard Devils fan, and used to blog with me at 2 Man Advantage, and helped myself and Joe (puckrock) found Intent To Blow. He's now a reporter at the Star Ledger.


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#2 NJDevs4978

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Posted 04 April 2013 - 02:08 PM

I didn't need to click on the link to know Spector's has infinitely more credibility than the other two lol
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"The Devils have high standards, that's the difference. We have a standard to live up to every year, and a couple of teams in our area don't have the standards we do." - Pat Burns

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#3 thelastonealive

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Posted 04 April 2013 - 02:10 PM

True, but it amuses me to no end that Єklund (2.3% accurate) wound up with lower scores than even the Insiderrp.


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#4 Devil Dan 56

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Posted 04 April 2013 - 09:36 PM

I wish they included Incarcerated Bob so people would stop bringing up his 'rumors'. Just as bad as the other 2, but more hostile.


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#5 thelastonealive

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Posted 04 April 2013 - 10:44 PM

I think I suggested Incarcerated Bob to Steve. Not sure why he wasn't used - maybe not enough rumor-mongering? I don't actually follow IB, so I have no idea.


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#6 Devil Dan 56

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Posted 04 April 2013 - 10:48 PM

I think I suggested Incarcerated Bob to Steve. Not sure why he wasn't used - maybe not enough rumor-mongering? I don't actually follow IB, so I have no idea.

 

I wrote down his predictions and rumors last trade deadline. It was all smoke and mirrors. A lot unspecific "hearing rumbles out of Whatever City" but nothing specific. Then, if Whatever City made a trade of any kind, it was all "You heard it here first!"

 

I then unfollowed haha


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Official NJDevs.com Keeper of Gory Corey Schwab, Mike Peluso, Troy Crowder, Jeff Frazee, and Rich Shulmistra.
"The Devils are that zombie that takes an ax to the skull, a bullet to the temple and is set on fire … and yet keeps lumbering along to the annoyance of all the other zombies." - Puck Daddy

#7 DJ Eco

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Posted 05 April 2013 - 11:35 AM

Interesting that Єklund (2.3% accurate) guessed the Sullivan trade a few weeks ago haha.. I'm not sure anyone could've guessed that one..


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