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The State Of The Devils


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#1 Triumph

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Posted 08 April 2013 - 02:13 PM

The Devils don't control the length of the season.  As it is 48 games and not 82 games, they'll probably miss the playoffs - hockey-reference's forecast has NJ at 22.6% to make the playoffs, Sportsclubstats at 19.0%.  

 

So I decided I'd go through and make a list of things that, had they gone slightly otherwise, NJ would be at least 50% to make the playoffs.  I'll use stats.hockeyanalysis.com to check out the numbers, using the basic standard of 5 goals = 1 win.

 

The Devils have shot 6.4% at 5v5 even strength - NHL average this year looks to be about 8.1%.  Had they shot 8.1%, they would have had 13 more 5v5 goals or at least 2 more wins.

 

The Devils have shot 10.5% on their 5v4 power play - NHL average this year looks to be about 12.6%.  Had they shot 12.6%, they'd have 3 more goals, or 1 more point.

 

The Devils' goalies have stopped 83.7% of shots on their penalty kill.  Had they stopped the NHL average of 87.4%, the Devils would have allowed about 5 fewer goals on their penalty kill, or about one win.

 

The Devils are 2 and 7 in shootouts.  If they were 4-5, they'd have 2 more points.

 

The Devils are 1 and 3 in overtime - if they were 2-2, they'd have one more point.

 

Had all of these things happened - and all these things mean just being average, they don't even have to go over the average (I suppose we can dial back NJ's shorthanded goals by a bit too, docking them a full win) the Devils would have 8 more points and would currently be in 5th place in the East, comfortably in a playoff spot.

 

All of this is a way of saying that if this were an 82 game season, this would likely be a blip.  The goalies aren't playing particularly well, they can't win a shootout, but they're playing excellent hockey.  Of course the Devils would have made the playoffs with Zach Parise and this set of circumstances - but the way the team is playing this year is giving me plenty of hope for the team without him.


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#2 Marshall

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Posted 08 April 2013 - 02:17 PM

Comparing the Devils' PDO to other teams is just downright depressing.The Leafs have as many players under 1000 (3) as the Devils have above...


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#3 Triumph

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Posted 08 April 2013 - 02:21 PM

Comparing the Devils' PDO to other teams is just downright depressing.The Leafs have as many players under 1000 (3) as the Devils have above...

 

Sucks this year, but I'll bet the Devils are better next year provided nothing catastrophic happens (catastrophic meaning like Elias leaving town).


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#4 maxpower

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Posted 08 April 2013 - 02:47 PM

It would be a pretty big blip at this point.   I've lost track of what their recent record is..  7-20, 7-21?

 

Yeah, maybe they could have recovered in a full season, but there's also the flip side where they just stop trying.    I don't know if I'd want to find out what would happen if the season was 3 months longer.


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#5 Triumph

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Posted 08 April 2013 - 03:02 PM

It would be a pretty big blip at this point.   I've lost track of what their recent record is..  7-20, 7-21?

 

Yeah, maybe they could have recovered in a full season, but there's also the flip side where they just stop trying.    I don't know if I'd want to find out what would happen if the season was 3 months longer.

 

Who cares what their recent record is - It's built on losing one-goal games.  They're 2 points out of a playoff spot - if the season were 3 months longer they are just going to give up?  I'm not sure you realize how hard it is to lose games like this over and over - it's certainly much less likely than winning them.


Edited by Triumph, 08 April 2013 - 03:02 PM.

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#6 maxpower

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Posted 08 April 2013 - 03:08 PM

Who cares what their recent record is - It's built on losing one-goal games.  They're 2 points out of a playoff spot - if the season were 3 months longer they are just going to give up?  I'm not sure you realize how hard it is to lose games like this over and over - it's certainly much less likely than winning them.

 

How far were they out around Thanksgiving 2010?  6-8, which considering the time left wasn't *that* much of a mountain to climb?   Soon after, they quit in epic fashion.


Edited by maxpower, 08 April 2013 - 03:09 PM.

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#7 NJDevs4978

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Posted 08 April 2013 - 03:13 PM

How far were they out around Thanksgiving 2010?  6-8, which considering the time left wasn't *that* much of a mountain to climb?   Soon after, they quit in epic fashion.

 

I think their 'high' point was 8-14-2 after Moose's three win in four game stretch, before the epic December crash.


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#8 2ELIAS6

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Posted 08 April 2013 - 03:24 PM

How far were they out around Thanksgiving 2010?  6-8, which considering the time left wasn't *that* much of a mountain to climb?   Soon after, they quit in epic fashion.

theres a season id like to forget!
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#9 Colorado Rockies 1976

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Posted 08 April 2013 - 03:28 PM

I understand what you're saying Tri, but for every team that's around the average, there's a batch above it, and a batch below it.  The fact is the Devils didn't reach these averages, and it probably comes down to the fact that this season, though they didn't enjoy the best luck, they just weren't good enough (but I don't want to eulogize them yet, as they're not dead)...I can't make it all about luck (not sure if you're doing this, or if I'm seeing an implication that isn't there).  Yeah, if some of their numbers had been better, they'd have won more games.  Clearly they weren't built to handle losing one of the few scorers they had...Kovy wasn't having a huge year, but he can get going at any time, and once he's out of the lineup, obviously even the chance of him getting on a roll goes bye-bye.  Something the Devils can build on is that they do a good job keeping opponents' shot totals down...with better goaltending, they could definitely have some more wins.  Problem is the goaltending tandem is probably coming back, isn't getting any younger (and very likely not better), and will have to play 82 games (though I'm guessing there's almost no chance Marty and Moose make it through an 82-game sched completely intact).   

 

And yeah, shortened seasons can be funky.  I've talked about this before, but in '95, the '95 regular season Devils played like the '95-'96 team, and the playoff Devils played like the '93-'94 team, seemingly out of nowhere, though they did finish '95 on a flourish in the regular season (12-6-3). 


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#10 maxpower

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Posted 08 April 2013 - 03:38 PM

I think their 'high' point was 8-14-2 after Moose's three win in four game stretch, before the epic December crash.

 

Yeah, at that point they were 7 points out, behind 8th place Atlanta, who had a game in hand.   So 7-9 out.


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#11 Devils731

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Posted 08 April 2013 - 03:41 PM

The goaltending is what it is, I think that's played only slightly under expectations.  

 

My state of the Devils is it's been extremely frustrating to see the team playing really well the past bunch of games and still can't get the wins they likely deserve.  They started out the year getting good luck for about 10 games and have had pretty poor luck ever since.


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#12 Triumph

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Posted 08 April 2013 - 03:42 PM

How far were they out around Thanksgiving 2010?  6-8, which considering the time left wasn't *that* much of a mountain to climb?   Soon after, they quit in epic fashion.

 

I don't think this team would quit.  That team was getting worse shooting luck but it was probably a worse team.  And we all remember how that season ended - with the team losing its way to the first overall pick, 30 points out of a playoff spot by season's end.


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#13 NJDevs4978

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Posted 08 April 2013 - 03:56 PM

The goaltending is what it is, I think that's played only slightly under expectations.  

 

My state of the Devils is it's been extremely frustrating to see the team playing really well the past bunch of games and still can't get the wins they likely deserve.  They started out the year getting good luck for about 10 games and have had pretty poor luck ever since.

 

I wouldn't call it poor luck when you're consistently losing to/playing down to Buffalo, Winnipeg, Florida, Tampa and the Isles.  We have ten losses to those teams alone.  Another two to Carolina who's not going to be anywhere near the playoffs either.  They've only had poor luck the last week, but they were conversely lucky that they weren't already out of it with how much losing they've done before that point.



I don't think this team would quit.  That team was getting worse shooting luck but it was probably a worse team.  And we all remember how that season ended - with the team losing its way to the first overall pick, 30 points out of a playoff spot by season's end.

 

They spiraled into a total death zone for six weeks.  Only a coaching change and trading the captain got them out of it and they started playing for pride, with an actual system in place.


Edited by NJDevs4978, 08 April 2013 - 03:58 PM.

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#14 Triumph

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Posted 08 April 2013 - 04:09 PM

I wouldn't call it poor luck when you're consistently losing to/playing down to Buffalo, Winnipeg, Florida, Tampa and the Isles.  We have ten losses to those teams alone.  Another two to Carolina who's not going to be anywhere near the playoffs either.  They've only had poor luck the last week, but they were conversely lucky that they weren't already out of it with how much losing they've done before that point.

 

I would - this isn't the NBA or NFL.  The Devils lost 2 shootouts to Buffalo and crushed them both games - as they no doubt should, as Buffalo is terrible.  You don't get to choose who you beat, and if you don't get the bounces, it's hard to beat anyone.  

 

76:  Yes, that's what I'm arguing.  It's that if any ONE of those things is different, the season is different.


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#15 NJDevs4978

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Posted 08 April 2013 - 04:20 PM

I would - this isn't the NBA or NFL.  The Devils lost 2 shootouts to Buffalo and crushed them both games - as they no doubt should, as Buffalo is terrible.  You don't get to choose who you beat, and if you don't get the bounces, it's hard to beat anyone.  

 

76:  Yes, that's what I'm arguing.  It's that if any ONE of those things is different, the season is different.

 

Last night I'll give you, but you have a pretty liberal definition of crushed if you think we crushed them in the first game - not to mention we were horrendous most of the game we 'won'.  And they didn't have Vanek either game we lost.  

 

We were bad against those teams far more than we were unlucky. 


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-NHL record for most road wins in the playoffs - 10-1 in '95 and 10-2 in '00
-NHL record for most home wins in the playoffs - 12-1 in '03

#16 ATLL765

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Posted 08 April 2013 - 04:21 PM

I wouldn't call it poor luck when you're consistently losing to/playing down to Buffalo, Winnipeg, Florida, Tampa and the Isles.  We have ten losses to those teams alone.  Another two to Carolina who's not going to be anywhere near the playoffs either.  They've only had poor luck the last week, but they were conversely lucky that they weren't already out of it with how much losing they've done before that point.



 

They spiraled into a total death zone for six weeks.  Only a coaching change and trading the captain got them out of it and they started playing for pride, with an actual system in place.

You don't just become really good with a coaching change, you were already good if that was the case, you just were either A: Badly managed or B: Really unlucky. Well, the Devils were both in 2010, but were neither in 2011.


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#17 NJDevs4978

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Posted 08 April 2013 - 04:26 PM

You don't just become really good with a coaching change, you were already good if that was the case, you just were either A: Badly managed or B: Really unlucky. Well, the Devils were both in 2010, but were neither in 2011.

 

They literally won every game by one goal for about six weeks.  That doesn't happen even with 'good' teams.  They weren't as bad as they were in the first half, and not as good as they were in the second half.  In an odd way, the final record kind of reflected what they were - a mediocre team without Parise.


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-NHL record for most road wins in the playoffs - 10-1 in '95 and 10-2 in '00
-NHL record for most home wins in the playoffs - 12-1 in '03

#18 maxpower

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Posted 08 April 2013 - 04:32 PM

I don't think this team would quit.  That team was getting worse shooting luck but it was probably a worse team.  And we all remember how that season ended - with the team losing its way to the first overall pick, 30 points out of a playoff spot by season's end.

 

They would have had to get 71 out of 82 to make the playoffs.   That's 35-5-1.  They were playing glorified exhibition games without pressure, winning, and having fun.


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#19 Chuck the Duck

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Posted 08 April 2013 - 04:53 PM

They literally won every game by one goal for about six weeks.  That doesn't happen even with 'good' teams.  They weren't as bad as they were in the first half, and not as good as they were in the second half.  In an odd way, the final record kind of reflected what they were - a mediocre team without Parise.

 

Apparently, little has changed since then.  :whistling:


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#20 Triumph

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Posted 08 April 2013 - 05:01 PM

They would have had to get 71 out of 82 to make the playoffs.   That's 35-5-1.  They were playing glorified exhibition games without pressure, winning, and having fun.

 

How were they glorified exhibition games?  The other team wanted to win, I'm sure.  That doesn't explain why teams shot 5.6% in score close situations against NJ for that entire stretch - NJ got great goaltending, but certainly nowhere close to true talent.


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