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Is this the worst stretch of luck in NHL history?


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#41 mouse

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Posted 13 April 2013 - 11:36 AM

The explanation for this losing streak is very simple, no Kovalchuk. It has nothing to do with shots on goal, puck posession, puck luck, "driving play" or whatever other sophistry you want to throw out there. Having Kovalchuk qb'ing the power play, especially a minute twenty 5 on 3 dramatically increases your odds of scoring, especially when the guy taking his place is Zidlicky. And you want him at even strength much more than whatever alternative you can think of. Perhaps an easier way to see the point is to look at things from the other team's perspective. Would you like your odds of winning a lot more if you don't have to go against Kovalchuk for 25 minutes of ice time a game? If you've worn a jock strap you know the answer is yes. The Rangers saw this when Nash was hurt. And yes, not having Parise makes the team worse off. How much so is difficult to say. But you get rid of him AND have Kovy out of the lineup, and you have a team that is not nearly as good as it was last year. In fact, you have a team that's pretty dreadful, as we're all witnessing. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD

 

I scored $75 tix in the fire lounge last night, so I was talking to Chico after the game (by the way, 2nd time I've talked to him, and he's one of the nicest guys I've ever met), and he agrees with you. He mentioned luck, but also said the team has a ton of hard working, good guys, but needs more big time scorers who can put it in the net without too much help, and losing Kovy and Parise really hurts.


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#42 mouse

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Posted 13 April 2013 - 11:51 AM

I'm sorry but you're from Norway and can't imagine you follow the sport of baseball (who would outside of North America, honestly) - baseball isn't baseball.  Baseball has a giant luck element as well, but that is being ignored.  And if max were a baseball fan and our .500 team lost 9 straight - which certainly happens plenty in baseball - there'd be all sorts of reasons why.  It wouldn't just be 'Oh, they're not scoring in clutch situations, and their defense/pitching is bad/unlucky in clutch situations'.  He'd have all sorts of theories for why.

 

Yeah, Steven Stamkos scores on twice as many shots as David Clarkson, but Steven Stamkos is a once-in-a-generation player.  The guy who used to be Steven Stamkos plays for the Devils and is shooting 5% on his even strength shots and 2.5% on his 5 on 4 power play shots.  Now if you want to blame Kovalchuk being shifted to right wing for the ES number, fine, but he hasn't really been moved on the power play and the puck just isn't going in.  

 

5v4 shooting percentage between 2007-08 and 2011-12/this year for NJ:

 

Patrik Elias:  14.1/6.7

Marek Zidlicky 10.8/4.0

Ilya Kovalchuk 11.4/2.6

Travis Zajac 11.5/6.7

David Clarkson 12.0/12.1

Steve Bernier 11.0/18.2

Adam Henrique 0.0/21.4

 

Our top unit, in theory, is Elias Zidlicky Kovalchuk Zajac Clarkson, all of them are shooting at or below their career rate percentage-wise.  So did they all lose finishing ability?  Is Zach Parise a shooting percentage elevator?  I'm not buying it.

 

I think it's both. Some players are unlucky. That will change. On the flip side, guys ARE taking low percentage shots. Last night, most of the shots we took were easy enough to save. Most of our shooters can put the puck on net, and create rebounding chances, but aren't necessarily going to burn the goalie by themselves (Kovy and Elias are the exceptions). If that's the kind of player you have, you absolutely need guys who can bury deflections and rebounds. Parise is one of the best at that. Clarkson is pretty good too, which goes back to the luck argument, since he's not doing sh!t in front of the net right now. Either way, if they want to do something to get better, they need to at least give guys time to crash the net before taking mediocre shots. Too often, especially in the first, last night they took a shot that led to a rebounding chance, but nobody was near the net. Later in the game, when they started to scare Anderson a little more, they had guys crashing (though the Ottawa d did a good job mauling them near the net, partially because they don't have to pay as much attention to any of our shooters aside from Elias).


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#43 maxpower

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Posted 13 April 2013 - 01:00 PM

Someone needs to take a chill pill, replying to me in posts that aren't even mine.


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#44 leeski

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Posted 13 April 2013 - 01:02 PM

NJ is 17th in shots on goal per game at 28.4

NJ is 29th in goals per game at 2.29.

 

Look at Carolina, another feeble team:

1st in shots on goal per game at 32.7
17th in goals per game at 2.58

 

Perhaps the most interesting example: Tampa Bay

 

28th in shots on goal per game at 26.6

Tied for 2nd in goals per game at 3.15


The teams that put up the most goals are unsurprising - teams like Pittsburgh, Chicago, Tampa Bay. These are teams which have FINISHING power; multiple players that when the puck hits the stick are dangerous. Ironically the two teams with the highest SOG per game, #1Carolina and #2Ottawa, are among the most unsuccessful in the league.
 

The Devils' problem in my opinion is that they don't have enough finishing players. Endlessly cycling the puck to create high-shot ratio/low-scoring chance opportunities isn't working, especially if the shots are coming from our top 6 which aren't exactly feared around the league. We had better hope that Reid Boucher works out well at an NHL level.


Edited by leeski, 13 April 2013 - 01:04 PM.

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#45 iamtheprodigy

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Posted 13 April 2013 - 01:10 PM

Because I can't explain it at this point, I have never in all my years of watching hockey seen this kind of bad luck. The shots, the scoring chances, the posts, the bad bounces. EVERYTHING we throw at the net doesn't go in, EVERY rush ends up in our net. Every shootout OT game we lose.

 

It's like a 1 in 100000000 bad luck run.

 

We know Brodeur isn't good anymore, maybe he's still hurt so I'll lay off him...but this team is getting chances offensively. They are doing a good job holding pucks in at the point, they cycle well, they get chances, they set up screens, they crash the net, they outchance the opposition by a lot...they get 5 on 3's. Nothing works EVER.

 

We have outshot the opposition 61-29 in the past two games and LOST both in regulation. I have never seen a team allow 18 and then 11 shots on goal and lose both in regulation

 

Take a good look. Because you will never see a better team dumped on by the hockey gods like this. We MASSACRED Ottawa at even strength today

 

Usually I disagree with you on stuff but I am in full agreement with you right now. The Devils are an average to slightly above average team who are having historically bad luck. I don't know if I would believe some of these stats if I didn't see them happen with my own eyes. I keep expecting the luck to finally shift and it just doesn't happen. Another game dominated by the Devils, another regulation loss.

 

I'm not saying the team couldn't be better, but they definitely deserve better than to be 0-9 in the last 9 games. A team this good doesn't play this well and lose every night without an insane amount of bad luck, there's just no questioning it anymore.


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#46 Devils731

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Posted 13 April 2013 - 01:11 PM

Leeski, does that hold true for last season, which was a full 82 games?  My eyeballing says that teams with more shots tended to score more goals, pretty heavily over the last 3 seasons.  There are a few exceptions here and there, but the teams that shoot the most also tend to be the teams that score the most.


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#47 NJDevs4978

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Posted 13 April 2013 - 01:32 PM

Patrik Elias on today's PP practice: "It was fine to get out there and just move the puck. We still didn’t score. Not even in practice.”

 

:doh1:


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#48 leeski

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Posted 13 April 2013 - 01:35 PM

Leeski, does that hold true for last season, which was a full 82 games?  My eyeballing says that teams with more shots tended to score more goals, pretty heavily over the last 3 seasons.  There are a few exceptions here and there, but the teams that shoot the most also tend to be the teams that score the most.

 

There's definitely a correlation between SOG and GPG. Of the top 10 scoring teams in 2011-12, 7 of them were in the top SOG. There were some exceptions like Colorado and St. Louis who put tons of pucks on net but were VERY low on actually scoring. But these two teams have a similar deficit as the Devils: finishing capacity. The top SOG and GPG teams (Pitt, Chicago, San Jose, Boston) were not just putting pucks on net often, they were doing it with top notch firepower at their disposal.

 

I listed NJ's stats this year about SOG and GPG. But I'll write them again below.

 

NJ is 17th in shots on goal per game at 28.4

NJ is 29th in goals per game at 2.29.

 

Now for 2011-12:

 

NJ is 27th in shots on goal per game at 27.5

NJ is 15th in goals per game at 2.63.

 

Notice the difference. Simply invert and minus 2.

Bottom line: Shots DO matter. More shots is better than less shots. But not all shots are created equal. NJ has a deficit in finishing capability.


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#49 '7'

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Posted 13 April 2013 - 01:35 PM

Patrik Elias on today's PP practice: "It was fine to get out there and just move the puck. We still didn’t score. Not even in practice.”

 

:doh1:

 

Maybe Terreri was in net. That explains it


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#50 capo

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Posted 13 April 2013 - 01:47 PM

There's definitely a correlation between SOG and GPG. Of the top 10 scoring teams in 2011-12, 7 of them were in the top SOG. There were some exceptions like Colorado and St. Louis who put tons of pucks on net but were VERY low on actually scoring. But these two teams have a similar deficit as the Devils: finishing capacity. The top SOG and GPG teams (Pitt, Chicago, San Jose, Boston) were not just putting pucks on net often, they were doing it with top notch firepower at their disposal.

 

I listed NJ's stats this year about SOG and GPG. But I'll write them again below.

 

NJ is 17th in shots on goal per game at 28.4

NJ is 29th in goals per game at 2.29.

 

Now for 2011-12:

 

NJ is 27th in shots on goal per game at 27.5

NJ is 15th in goals per game at 2.63.

 

Notice the difference. Simply invert and minus 2.

Bottom line: Shots DO matter. More shots is better than less shots. But not all shots are created equal. NJ has a deficit in finishing capability.

It's still quality vs. quantity.  It's the same reason teams just don't fire the puck non-stop during the pp.  The Devils shot quality is horrendous and that's the bottomline.


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#51 SterioDesign

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Posted 13 April 2013 - 02:15 PM

well this whole last page is explaining the reasons why it's getting under my skin anytime someone bring a shooting % or any similar stats to prove a point. 

 

almost every time its brought up its ignoring shot quality and thats a MAJOR thing so why keep on bringing it as a main indicator? and by WATCHING the games all season long we saw that our shots are very often not very dangerous.


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#52 jerseysteve

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Posted 13 April 2013 - 03:34 PM

First, as much as I love Marty, I think we can all agree that he just doesn't look like the Marty we're used to.  Not that he's bad, but he isn't stealing games anymore.  Hedberg has simply reached the end of the road.  I don't blame it all on him, but he just didn't look good at all.  That said, Marty will be back.  The one thing that could work in our favor is the plethora of pretty good goalies that will be available.  I'm not sure Lou will go after one of the bigger names (and contracts), but there is one intriguing name we can probably get cheap.  He would become the new "Hedberg" and act as a bridge to 2015 when Marty rides off into the sunset.  None other than JS Giguere...I know, he's not a long term solution, but he can still play well, and would probably be a very good stop gap measure should Marty go down next season for any stretch.


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#53 Devils731

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Posted 13 April 2013 - 03:46 PM

Did the Devils lack shot quality in the 2 games they were shutout? I watched those games and the Decils had lots of quality chances, more than they allowed the other team by a bunch.
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Your unconditional rejection of violence makes you smugly think of yourselves as noble, as enlightened, but in reality it is nothing less than abject moral capitulation to evil. Unconditional rejection of self-defense, because you think its a supposed surrender to violence, leaves you no resort but begging for mercy or offering appeasement.

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#54 CarterforPresident

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Posted 13 April 2013 - 04:10 PM

Its the 666 Curse. Marty with it, kovy(6,666) wit the triple six and Clarkson(2,666) this triple six curse! Come on next year! How could lou do that! Is he Illuminati lmao

Edited by CarterforPresident, 13 April 2013 - 04:12 PM.

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#55 Marshall

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Posted 13 April 2013 - 04:18 PM

Did the Devils lack shot quality in the 2 games they were shutout? I watched those games and the Decils had lots of quality chances, more than they allowed the other team by a bunch.

 

They dominated Boston completely. Hell, I'd wager they have more scoring chances now than they did early in the season.


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#56 ZeroGravityFat

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Posted 13 April 2013 - 09:27 PM

here i thought oates was a terrible pp coach, we managed to find worse.


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#57 Devil Dan 56

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Posted 14 April 2013 - 08:37 AM

here i thought oates was a terrible pp coach, we managed to find worse.

 

At this point, I think it's on the players. 


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#58 Marshall

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Posted 14 April 2013 - 09:39 AM

Quite obvious that it is on the players - hey look, Washington has the league's best PP. Haven't checked their underlying numbers, but still.


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#59 NJDevs4978

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Posted 14 April 2013 - 10:10 AM

Quite obvious that it is on the players - hey look, Washington has the league's best PP. Haven't checked their underlying numbers, but still.

 

When you go from mediocre to bad with the same personnel (last year to this year) that's a severe dropoff.  

 

And yeah some of it's on the players since Oates had top five PP's before and after us (and lately the players would have stunk under any system) and it was only mediocre here, but the Shaw system's never looked right from day one.  You gotta put your players in a position to succeed, and this PP system doesn't do that by a longshot - Kovy on the right side of the ice, always lining players up on their off shooting hand, etc.

 

In fairness it's hard to implement any new system in a short season, and that might wind up saving Shaw's job but the system itself looks very flawed.


Edited by NJDevs4978, 14 April 2013 - 10:13 AM.

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#60 2ELIAS6

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Posted 14 April 2013 - 10:44 AM

lol the system is more then flawed my friend.. it is complete and utter sh!t.. numbers dont lie, 1 for 29 on the power play so far for the month of april, i mean i dont think ive ever even heard of a pp that bad..
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