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Is this the worst stretch of luck in NHL history?


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#121 Triumph

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Posted 16 April 2013 - 03:31 PM

All shot differential with no goals tells me is that they have the right system and the wrong personnel up front - something which you don't need numbers to tell you anyway.    They don't currently have a 30-goal scorer in the lineup.  They barely have three 20-goal scorers (Elias, Clarkson, Henrique) and at this point all of them - even Elias - are complementary players.  Can't trust Zajac to get 20-25 anymore now that he's been awful two straight years without Zach.  Half the other forwards don't even have double-digit goal potential.  No defenseman currently has 10-goal potential either.

 

Even with Kovy they need a 'bit' more scoring at all positions.  There's a reason Kovy was playing 26 minutes a game before he got hurt and that can't continue.

 

Kovalchuk's ice time was actually going down when he got hurt.  DeBoer was giving him more 22 minute games.  I'm not that concerned about this as long as they stop double shifting him at even strength, which they didn't have to do - that was something they chose to do.


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#122 Daniel

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Posted 16 April 2013 - 03:35 PM

I know I'll probably get crucified for this, but NJ is gonna be fine. First of all, we've given up the least amount of shots in the league. Next, let's look at shot differential:

 

1) LA- +5.5

2) Chicago- +5.2

3) NJ- + 4.9

4) MTL- +3.4

5) Boston- +3.1

6) San Jose- +2.9

 

That's some pretty good company right there. We'll retool in the offseason, get healthy and get a blue chip prospect we probably don't deserve (relative to our skill as a team)

 

If you're not familiar with the term, I suggest you look up "cargo cult science".


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#123 ATLL765

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Posted 16 April 2013 - 03:39 PM

Some points I’d like t make:
Lou did not botch the Parise loss. Parise and his wife had decided on Minny with Suter regardless. Lou offered what he could.

Giving up assets in picks for Pony was a mistake. Lou could have signed him for free without giving up assets during offseason but had to wait on Parise.
4th rounders or,whatever we gave up for Pony by themselves 90% of the time end up being crap l but packed together with other assets and maybe we could have moved up a spot or two in this years draft.
Mistake trading for him but totally see why he had to.

Larsson at this very point in time does not look like a 4th overall pick. I would take Dougie Hamilton over him right now. Hopefully I am proven wrong Ina year or two.
I know Dmen take longer to develop but so far nothing has amazed me with watching Larsson. He does not have good foot speed, he does not have a cannon for a shot , he does not hit very often , he does not do anything that players like RNH , Landeskog , Huberdeau, etc. do, which is show that they are standout players with exceptional skill. Larsson just looks average at everything.

Not giving up the 29th overall pick last year was a mistake. Only one spot crappier to draft in the first round yet we hold onto it and now have to forfeit one in the next two years, and going off of our position this year and add to the fact our core is getting even older next year AND maybe losing Patty and Clarkson… We may have to forfeit a top 10 pick instead of the 29th.

I am pissed that we lost Parise and did nothing to replace him, but when thinking about it,how/ who could we have replaced him with? Only decent free agent was Semin , and he was a big question mark with his attitude and workmanship issues.
Lou had to patch together a roster without Parise and hope for others to step up. We still have cap space and hopefully use it to an advantage instead of panicking and spending precious money and cap space just for the sake of making a move.

Be patient , Lou will do whatever he can to make the team the best possible.
He has had mistakes but a lot of the times he was screwed over by circumstances out of his control.

Only true screw ups he has made is not forfeiting last years pick and not drafting a goalie to replace Marty sooner.
Frazee is a pile of garbage and will never see the NHL even as a backup, Kinkaid and Wedgewood are still a couple of years out.

Teddy is a bust. Could of had Carlson instead but took another 5”‘3” winger…. Or maybe I’m thinking of JJ we took ahead of Carlson, either way, we blew that pick.

I'm pretty glad Larsson doesn't play like a forward. You should be too, but you're not.


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#124 SMantzas

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Posted 16 April 2013 - 03:42 PM

If you're not familiar with the term, I suggest you look up "cargo cult science".

Did I ever say this was an exact science? All it means is that the Devils have consistently earned way more chances than their opposition. When you shoot, several things happen: a goal from beating a goalie cleanly, a rebound, a deflection, etc.

Better than merely looking at results without any context

Edited by SMantzas, 16 April 2013 - 03:43 PM.

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#125 Triumph

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Posted 16 April 2013 - 03:57 PM

If you're not familiar with the term, I suggest you look up "cargo cult science".

 

I suggest you look up shot differentials.  They're quite illuminating.


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#126 Daniel

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Posted 16 April 2013 - 04:00 PM

I suggest you look up shot differentials.  They're quite illuminating.

 

I suggest you look at this 10 game losing streak and notice the lack of production. 

 

"they follow all the apparent precepts and forms of scientific investigation, but
they're missing something essential, because the planes don't land."

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#127 Devils731

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Posted 16 April 2013 - 04:15 PM

I suggest you look at this 10 game losing streak and notice the lack of production. 

 

"they follow all the apparent precepts and forms of scientific investigation, but
they're missing something essential, because the planes don't land."

 

If I flip a coin 10 times and get heads 10 times, I can now state that coins that are flipped will land heads forever.  If you disagree with me then you're using psuedoscience since I have direct proof of these 10 flips.


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#128 Daniel

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Posted 16 April 2013 - 04:19 PM


Better than merely looking at results without any context

 

Looking at shot differentials is the same exact thing, which is why it drives me up a wall when people tout it. 

 

it helps when you have better players shooting the puck.  And what do you know, the player on the team that's best at that hasn't been playing. 


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#129 Devils731

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Posted 16 April 2013 - 04:22 PM

Looking at shot differentials is the same exact thing, which is why it drives me up a wall when people tout it. 

 

it helps when you have better players shooting the puck.  And what do you know, the player on the team that's best at that hasn't been playing. 

 

People have been providing context with the shot chart and with watching the games.  

 

Look at last game, not only did the Devils have many more shots, they had many more shots from good spots.  They hit another post, they had the goalie making saves where he's just hoping the puck hits him, and they missed some chances.  All those things don't keep going wrong, unless, overnight, almost every player on the Devils magically became half the shooter they've always been.


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Your unconditional rejection of violence makes you smugly think of yourselves as noble, as enlightened, but in reality it is nothing less than abject moral capitulation to evil. Unconditional rejection of self-defense, because you think its a supposed surrender to violence, leaves you no resort but begging for mercy or offering appeasement.

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#130 SMantzas

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Posted 16 April 2013 - 04:23 PM

Looking at shot differentials is the same exact thing, which is why it drives me up a wall when people tout it. 

 

it helps when you have better players shooting the puck.  And what do you know, the player on the team that's best at that hasn't been playing. 

And it also helps looking at a large sample size (ie. a player's career shooting %). Pretty much the whole team is shooting well below their career average


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#131 Daniel

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Posted 16 April 2013 - 04:25 PM

If I flip a coin 10 times and get heads 10 times, I can now state that coins that are flipped will land heads forever.  If you disagree with me then you're using psuedoscience since I have direct proof of these 10 flips.

 

Nice try and a nice strawman.  The point is that someone else looks at shot differentials, sees a correlation, and assumes causation without any context at all.  The lack of context is why the planes aren't landing here, i.e. why the Devils are not winning games they supposedly "dominate" or outshoot their opponents.


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#132 Devils731

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Posted 16 April 2013 - 04:28 PM

Nice try and a nice strawman.  The point is that someone else looks at shot differentials, sees a correlation, and assumes causation without any context at all.  The lack of context is why the planes aren't landing here, i.e. why the Devils are not winning games they supposedly "dominate" or outshoot their opponents.

 

:lol: You're the one who is trying to take the context away.  We see the Devils are outchances their opponents and outshooting them.  Your "proof" is the lack of goal scoring, which also lacks context.  You're adding less context by boiling things down to less likely events and then saying that's a definitive result, that good play always leads to goals.

 

I stand by what I wrote as being almost identical to what you wrote, whether you agree or not.


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Your unconditional rejection of violence makes you smugly think of yourselves as noble, as enlightened, but in reality it is nothing less than abject moral capitulation to evil. Unconditional rejection of self-defense, because you think its a supposed surrender to violence, leaves you no resort but begging for mercy or offering appeasement.

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#133 CarterforPresident

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Posted 16 April 2013 - 04:29 PM


I'm pretty glad Larsson doesn't play like a forward. You should be too, but you're not.


Attl that wasn't written by me it was by someone else on a different board but some if seemed interesting so I posted here.
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#134 SMantzas

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Posted 16 April 2013 - 05:11 PM

Daniel- 

1 team with a top-10 shot differential isn't in the playoffs (NJ) and 2 teams who are in the bottom-10 for shot differential are in the playoffs (WSH and TOR)
 
It seems like a pretty good indicator of performance

Edited by SMantzas, 16 April 2013 - 05:13 PM.

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#135 Triumph

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Posted 16 April 2013 - 05:19 PM

Daniel- 

1 team with a top-10 shot differential isn't in the playoffs (NJ) and 2 teams who are in the bottom-10 for shot differential are in the playoffs (WSH and TOR)
 
It seems like a pretty good indicator of performance

 

Since 1995 (which was as far back as I wanted to look - shot quality becomes a concern the farther I go back), non-playoff teams have never cumulatively had a shot differential above 50%.

 

The thing about shot differential is that it is a super-broad brush - since worse teams tend to be behind more often than they are ahead, they get more time where their shot differential is expected to be higher (trailing teams tend to outshoot leading teams) - but yeah look at 15+ years of data and some patterns emerge.


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#136 sundstrom

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Posted 16 April 2013 - 06:32 PM

All shot differential with no goals tells me is that they have the right system and the wrong personnel up front - something which you don't need numbers to tell you anyway.    They don't currently have a 30-goal scorer in the lineup.  They barely have three 20-goal scorers (Elias, Clarkson, Henrique) and at this point all of them - even Elias - are complementary players.  Can't trust Zajac to get 20-25 anymore now that he's been awful two straight years without Zach.  Half the other forwards don't even have double-digit goal potential.  No defenseman currently has 10-goal potential either.

 

Even with Kovy they need a 'bit' more scoring at all positions.  There's a reason Kovy was playing 26 minutes a game before he got hurt and that can't continue.

 

Elias and Clarkson are NOT "barely 20 goal scorers". i mean, this recent 10 game skid where nobody has scored hasn't helped but both are clearly 22-28G/ season - especially with their PP presence. Henrique should also be a 20G scorer. In a perfect world, they do add one more winger who is capable of scoring 20. i suppose its possible loktionov could get there.

 

ideally, you have:

 

xxx-loktionov-kovalchuk

elias-zajac-clarkson

henrique-josefson-xxxx

carter-xxxx-bernier

 

now, gionta is obviously the current 4th line center but i hope they kill that nightmare.

zubrus could very likely be that 3rd line RW.

the key, as i see it, is finding the solution to 1st line LW - the devils have tried to make that a power forward type (zubrus/ponikarovsky/palmieri) where scoring was second to driving the net. i'd prefer it be a scorer.

as an aside, i'm not positive where matteau fits here as a LW unless they're going to keep henrique at center, in which case josefson moves down to center line 4. that's certainly doable.

 

i suppose, if the devils draft monanhan or shinkaruk, they could conceivably give them a shot at LW on that line but i think that's some serious wishful thinking on lots of fronts.


Edited by sundstrom, 16 April 2013 - 07:06 PM.

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#137 maxpower

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Posted 16 April 2013 - 06:46 PM

It has to end in the next two games.   Those teams are just too bad defensively to not blow them up.


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#138 DevilMinder

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Posted 16 April 2013 - 08:00 PM

Devils have the least amount of goals in the league, anyone mention that yet? Heh.


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#139 jagknife

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Posted 16 April 2013 - 08:19 PM

10 game skid? Lowest in goals for?

 


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NewKeeperSig.png of each of Toronto's 6 shots on goal in Game 6


#140 NJDevs4978

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Posted 16 April 2013 - 08:58 PM

It has to end in the next two games.   Those teams are just too bad defensively to not blow them up.

 

So instead of 35 shots on net without a goal we get 50 without a goal...great :P


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