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5 Things That Went Wrong


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#41 devilsrule33

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Posted 26 April 2013 - 02:29 PM

A few quick things:

 

- No one is saying the Devils are missing the playoffs only because of goaltending. That be silly when you are talking about an offense that will probably end up 3rd worst in the league. But I'll take my chances with the offense improving over bringing back a 41 and 40-year-old goaltending tandem next year. And Marty has been a below average to bottom of the league goalie for 3 seasons now. And for everyone clamoring for Lou to fix things offensively, well then you equally have to be wanting him to do something with the goalies. The bottom line is you can make the playoffs sometimes by having good offense and bad goaltending like...the Isles or by having a terrible offense and great goaltending...like the Sens. It happens but isn't close to a guarantee. Well you can't make the playoffs by being bad at both...and that's what happened this season.

 

- The Devils defense was for the most part very solid. You can still be pissed at Salvador and Volchenkov for being the weak links most of the year. One bad player isn't going to cause 5 more shots a game or anything close to that. Giving up the lowest amount of shots is about the entire team and not the 6 defensemen. It's about the fore-check and the system the entire team plays. It's about keeping the other team in their own zone for 45 seconds at a time. Maybe a great scoring chance doesn't come about, but it also keeps the other team far away from your side, which is very valuable. 


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#42 MantaRay

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Posted 26 April 2013 - 02:35 PM

I think our D is very good and has more promise.

 

I would drop Tallinder and get Larsson in full-time.   We need to keep Harrold especially if we are losing Zidlicky.

 

Sal is great, but A-Train is starting to look slow.


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#43 Colorado Rockies 1976

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Posted 26 April 2013 - 02:48 PM

- No one is saying the Devils are missing the playoffs only because of goaltending.

 

One of many factors.  Problem is the Devils couldn't score enough to bail out their goalies, and their goalies couldn't stop the puck enough to bail out the team's lack of scoring.  At least Marty and Moose's GAA benefitted from the low shots totals coming their way. 


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#44 NJDevs4978

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Posted 26 April 2013 - 03:11 PM

The actual goals against -- the stat that actually matters -- doesn't back up what you're saying.  The goals against is even more meaningful considering the lackluster play of one third of your defensive corps on a night in, night out basis.   

 

The back up goalie, unless it's Corey Schneider, is not going to make a team significantly better, and certainly won't be enough of an improvement to put the Devils back into being a consistent competitor.  Even assuming that Hedberg was as bad as people say, it's not like signficantly better back up goalies are just waiting for a phone call.  Improve on Hedberg if you want.  Just don't be surprised if the wins and losses are about the same because the Devils are struggling to score 3 goals.

 

What very few people are disputing is that this team at least makes the playoffs if Kovalchuk didn't get hurt.  The logical deduction is that the biggest problem was scoring goals, not the goaltending and certainly not save percentage.

 

The backup goalie is infinitely more important to the Devils next year than it is any other team.  For the simple reason that Marty's 41, and not only can't he play as many games as he did in the past but he's almost 100% going to be on the shelf for an extended period at some point.  And having a backup goalie with an .885 save percentage that couldn't get the job done in an extended stretch this year is asking for trouble again next year.

 

I'm in the minority that I agree with your point, inasmuch as I'd put scoring higher on the priority list than goaltending.  I don't think the scoring issues get magically solved just by having a healthy Kovy and hoping everyone else turns it around.  There's a reason everyone else crapped the bed this year, it's called they're secondary scorers and there was only 'one' primary scorer to take the pressure off.  When that one guy went out they collectively imploded.

 

And even if you do want to pinpoint save percentage as a problem (my issue is people are treating it as 'the' problem), well upgrade over the guy with an .885 save percentage before you upgrade over the one with a .905 and a 2.1 GAA.  Yes goaltending as currently constituted is going to be an issue next year for various reasons but you're not throwing Marty 'and' Moose out in the same offseason and you're not throwing Marty out at all this offseason.


Edited by NJDevs4978, 26 April 2013 - 03:14 PM.

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#45 Daniel

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Posted 26 April 2013 - 03:29 PM

The backup goalie is infinitely more important to the Devils next year than it is any other team.  For the simple reason that Marty's 41, and not only can't he play as many games as he did in the past but he's almost 100% going to be on the shelf for an extended period at some point.  And having a backup goalie with an .885 save percentage that couldn't get the job done in an extended stretch this year is asking for trouble again next year.

 

I'm in the minority that I agree with your point, inasmuch as I'd put scoring higher on the priority list than goaltending.  And even if you do want to pinpoint save percentage as a problem, well upgrade over the guy with an .885 save percentage before you upgrade over the one with a .905 and a 2.1 GAA.  Yes goaltending as currently constituted is going to be an issue next year for various reasons but you're not throwing Marty 'and' Moose out in the same offseason and you're not throwing Marty out at all this offseason.

 

This presumes that you can get a goalie that will in fact have that save percentage on this team.  Or more precisely that because a goalie had this save percentage on one team, there's a good chance he'll have it on another team. ( I'll admit though that I'm very stubborn in my belief that shots on goal is one of the more overrated stats out there.)

 

I'm all for improving at any position if the price is right.  And I'm not saying that Marty and Hedberg make me all that confident.  Just don't expect any miracles even if you could land a guy like Reimer.  By contrast a full season of a healthy Kovalchuk and Zubrus, improvement from Larsson and Zajac, will end up in a much improved team when it comes to wins.

 

But it's difficult to overstate the importance of landing a forward that can score in this draft.  If the Devils miss, you better hope that Boucher and Severson are better than people expect and that Merrill is as good as he's supposed to be.  If not, we could be in Islanders of the past seven years territory. 


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#46 mouse

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Posted 26 April 2013 - 10:33 PM

Traded Greene? LOL  he was one of our best skaters and defenders period. not a smart move at all

 

No question, it would have hurt, but IMO he wasn't a difference maker, and with Fayne, Tally, and Larsson on the team playing similar games, you can live without him. He was one of the few guys who would have gotten anything on the open market, and, as we saw, this team clearly needed a forward more than 8 d, even if we had to give up one of the better ones.



You do realize that when Marty came back and before Kovy went down Devils won 2 games out of 2?

Small sample size, and since Marty wasn't exactly good after those couple games, I still think they would have lost a ton even with Kovy. 


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#47 DH26

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Posted 26 April 2013 - 10:44 PM

This presumes that you can get a goalie that will in fact have that save percentage on this team.  Or more precisely that because a goalie had this save percentage on one team, there's a good chance he'll have it on another team. ( I'll admit though that I'm very stubborn in my belief that shots on goal is one of the more overrated stats out there.)

 

I'm all for improving at any position if the price is right.  And I'm not saying that Marty and Hedberg make me all that confident.  Just don't expect any miracles even if you could land a guy like Reimer.  By contrast a full season of a healthy Kovalchuk and Zubrus, improvement from Larsson and Zajac, will end up in a much improved team when it comes to wins.

 

But it's difficult to overstate the importance of landing a forward that can score in this draft.  If the Devils miss, you better hope that Boucher and Severson are better than people expect and that Merrill is as good as he's supposed to be.  If not, we could be in Islanders of the past seven years territory. 

 

If you could land Reimer, everything would be solved goalie-wise. Problem is it'd take Larsson+++ and they wouldn't trade him anyway 


Edited by DH26, 26 April 2013 - 10:45 PM.

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#48 Marshall

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Posted 27 April 2013 - 01:28 AM

Depends on how the playoffs pan out and if they (foolishly) swing for a big time starter.


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#49 SMantzas

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Posted 28 April 2013 - 09:41 PM

http://twitpic.com/cmq319
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#50 Devs3cups

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Posted 28 April 2013 - 09:46 PM

http://twitpic.com/cmq319


Wow...this pretty much sums up the whole season for us..
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#51 Devilsfan118

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Posted 28 April 2013 - 09:58 PM

http://twitpic.com/cmq319

 

That is just hilarious.  


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#52 maxpower

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Posted 28 April 2013 - 10:06 PM

If you really want to have a laugh, they were one of the worst when they got off to a good start.


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#53 msweet

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Posted 28 April 2013 - 10:09 PM

http://twitpic.com/cmq319

yup


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#54 Onddeck

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Posted 29 April 2013 - 12:10 AM

http://twitpic.com/cmq319

wowwww. im not at all surprised. seeing that on paper though is ridiculous


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#55 Marshall

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Posted 29 April 2013 - 03:54 AM

That's just depressing.


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#56 Triumph

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Posted 29 April 2013 - 08:11 AM

This presumes that you can get a goalie that will in fact have that save percentage on this team.  Or more precisely that because a goalie had this save percentage on one team, there's a good chance he'll have it on another team. ( I'll admit though that I'm very stubborn in my belief that shots on goal is one of the more overrated stats out there.)

 

I'm all for improving at any position if the price is right.  And I'm not saying that Marty and Hedberg make me all that confident.  Just don't expect any miracles even if you could land a guy like Reimer.  By contrast a full season of a healthy Kovalchuk and Zubrus, improvement from Larsson and Zajac, will end up in a much improved team when it comes to wins.

 

But it's difficult to overstate the importance of landing a forward that can score in this draft.  If the Devils miss, you better hope that Boucher and Severson are better than people expect and that Merrill is as good as he's supposed to be.  If not, we could be in Islanders of the past seven years territory. 

 

lol.  gimme a break.  Let's go back to see the Islanders of 2006-07, the last time they made the playoffs:

 

Their top 5 scorers?  Over 30.  Next guy on the list?  Tom Poti, who would leave for Washington next year.  How about the defense?  Campoli and Gervais were young, but they turned into pretty much nothing.  Please don't say something dumb like 'Larsson could turn into nothing!'.  Only if he gets hurt.  Minutes leader Tom Poti left.  Second minutes leader Sean Hill was 36.   And so on and so forth.  The Islanders were in the position of having an old team with almost no prospects.  They dealt two of their best ones for Ryan Smyth.  Rick Dipietro also turned into a pumpkin.  

 

The Devils are not in this spot at all.  

 

If you really want to have a laugh, they were one of the worst when they got off to a good start.

 

I don't think this is true (NJ crushed on the PP and PK which is why their differential is so high, think they did that right out of the gate), but there's a ton of score effects in this, and the fact that the Devils' goalies had about an .850 SV% in the 1st period helps your shot differential but not your goal differential.


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#57 SMantzas

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Posted 29 April 2013 - 08:19 AM

lol. gimme a break. Let's go back to see the Islanders of 2006-07, the last time they made the playoffs:

Their top 5 scorers? Over 30. Next guy on the list? Tom Poti, who would leave for Washington next year. How about the defense? Campoli and Gervais were young, but they turned into pretty much nothing. Please don't say something dumb like 'Larsson could turn into nothing!'. Only if he gets hurt. Minutes leader Tom Poti left. Second minutes leader Sean Hill was 36. And so on and so forth. The Islanders were in the position of having an old team with almost no prospects. They dealt two of their best ones for Ryan Smyth. Rick Dipietro also turned into a pumpkin.

The Devils are not in this spot at all.


I don't think this is true (NJ crushed on the PP and PK which is why their differential is so high, think they did that right out of the gate), but there's a ton of score effects in this, and the fact that the Devils' goalies had about an .850 SV% in the 1st period helps your shot differential but not your goal differential.

I know a lot of it is score effects, but the truth is that the Devils got those shots. The fact that they scored the amount they did and gave up as much is comical
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#58 NCDevsFan

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Posted 29 April 2013 - 09:03 AM

http://twitpic.com/cmq319

I just threw up.
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#59 Daniel

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Posted 29 April 2013 - 09:11 AM

lol.  gimme a break.  Let's go back to see the Islanders of 2006-07, the last time they made the playoffs:

 

Their top 5 scorers?  Over 30.  Next guy on the list?  Tom Poti, who would leave for Washington next year.  How about the defense?  Campoli and Gervais were young, but they turned into pretty much nothing.  Please don't say something dumb like 'Larsson could turn into nothing!'.  Only if he gets hurt.  Minutes leader Tom Poti left.  Second minutes leader Sean Hill was 36.   And so on and so forth.  The Islanders were in the position of having an old team with almost no prospects.  They dealt two of their best ones for Ryan Smyth.  Rick Dipietro also turned into a pumpkin.  

 

The Devils are not in this spot at all.  

 

 

I don't think this is true (NJ crushed on the PP and PK which is why their differential is so high, think they did that right out of the gate), but there's a ton of score effects in this, and the fact that the Devils' goalies had about an .850 SV% in the 1st period helps your shot differential but not your goal differential.

 

The Devils are an old team, even if you take into account that the numbers are skewed by Marty and Hedberg.  With the team as constructed, you could expect on a year in year out basis for the top scorers to be Kovalchuk (30 and 12 years worth of games in his mileage), Clarkson (29 and 50/50 he's playing somewhere else next year),  Elias (37) and Zajac (27), and maybe you can count Zubrus (34).  The only really young somewhat proven commodites on the roster are Henrique and Loktiniov.  The defense is very old.  Fayne and Larsson are the only ones under 30, and Fayne only has one year before he is a UFA.  Even assuming Larsson turns out to be very good, he will not be the type of defenseman that can do it all by himself (there are maybe 3 defenseman in the league that can do that). 

 

The goalie situation is up in the air.  Wedgewood is an unproven commodity, and Kinkaid doesn't project to be all that stellar.  And as much as people like to think that good goalies are out there for picking, it just isn't so.

 

With all of this, it is VERY important that the Devils add young players that can score goals or, at least help score goals.  The only forward in the system that might be able to do that is Boucher, and maybe Matteau.  Severson could turn out to have Rafalski offensive skill and Merrill projects to be a 40 point defenseman.  As many people that are very high on him have said that Larsson probably won't set the world on fire with his point production. 

 

If the Devils pick this year turns into Robert Nillson, things could get ugly very quickly.  And, save a trade, there is no first round pick next year.  It is imperative that the Devils at least hit a nice double (say Ryan Kesler type performance)  with this draft pick. 

 

I hope Lou has some kind of voodoo magic (or has some embarrassing photos fo Bettman) that gets the Devils to win the lottery this year.  A trade down that includes getting a player like Barkov and recouping a first rounder next year will immediately turn around what looks to be at the very least a cloudy future.


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#60 Triumph

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Posted 29 April 2013 - 10:26 AM

The Devils are an old team, even if you take into account that the numbers are skewed by Marty and Hedberg.  With the team as constructed, you could expect on a year in year out basis for the top scorers to be Kovalchuk (30 and 12 years worth of games in his mileage), Clarkson (29 and 50/50 he's playing somewhere else next year),  Elias (37) and Zajac (27), and maybe you can count Zubrus (34).  The only really young somewhat proven commodites on the roster are Henrique and Loktiniov.  The defense is very old.  Fayne and Larsson are the only ones under 30, and Fayne only has one year before he is a UFA.  Even assuming Larsson turns out to be very good, he will not be the type of defenseman that can do it all by himself (there are maybe 3 defenseman in the league that can do that). 

 

The goalie situation is up in the air.  Wedgewood is an unproven commodity, and Kinkaid doesn't project to be all that stellar.  And as much as people like to think that good goalies are out there for picking, it just isn't so.

 

With all of this, it is VERY important that the Devils add young players that can score goals or, at least help score goals.  The only forward in the system that might be able to do that is Boucher, and maybe Matteau.  Severson could turn out to have Rafalski offensive skill and Merrill projects to be a 40 point defenseman.  As many people that are very high on him have said that Larsson probably won't set the world on fire with his point production. 

 

If the Devils pick this year turns into Robert Nillson, things could get ugly very quickly.  And, save a trade, there is no first round pick next year.  It is imperative that the Devils at least hit a nice double (say Ryan Kesler type performance)  with this draft pick. 

 

I hope Lou has some kind of voodoo magic (or has some embarrassing photos fo Bettman) that gets the Devils to win the lottery this year.  A trade down that includes getting a player like Barkov and recouping a first rounder next year will immediately turn around what looks to be at the very least a cloudy future.

 

The defense has a ton of excellent prospects.  I'd put Merrill, Gelinas, Severson, Scarlett, and Urbom up against any team's if we're talking about young defensemen not playing in the NHL.  Then you've got Larsson on top of that as a player younger than most of those guys and already in the NHL.

 

You can buy goal scoring when you have a cheap defense.  It's not pretty, but it can be done.  And I don't care about point production from defensemen, not when Kovalchuk is going to be playing the point on the PP for the next 5 years at least.  

 

The Devils look to be close to set at center and defense in the coming years.  Those tend to be the most difficult things to get - wings can be bought, but it's hard to find centers and defense.  Goalies used to be easy to get, now they're harder, but there's no reason to go with a guy who sucks year after year besides stubbornness.  Regardless, NJ should have a top defensive team for years to come.  Just like always.


Edited by Triumph, 29 April 2013 - 10:28 AM.

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