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Devils by GVT


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#1 StormJosh

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Posted 30 April 2013 - 12:54 PM

Some of you may find this interesting. I took the GVT statistics from this year and compared them to last year. I equalized it to an 82 game season for both this season and last season. I also deleted and/or set to zero the players who's sample size was too small to make annualizing to an 82 game season reasonable. (i.e; Gionta's 1 game last season would have made him a 41 GVT player over an 82 game season).

 

I know this board has some issue with GVT and similar statistics. Yes, I know that GVT is hardly an end-all measure to calculate player performance. But, like +/-, it has its place when examined in context. This is not scientific at all so please chill out.

 

Also, I apologize for the formatting, its the best I could do without too much effort on the board.

 

Some interesting items (according to this measurement):

  • Elias managed to have an even better season than last year, what a player.
  • Andy Greene, Mark Fayne, and Adam Larsson had monster years; and...
  • All of our defenseman are pretty good, even Salvador, despite his regression.
  • Loktionov was the trade of the season for perhaps any NHL team
  • Hedburg was the 4th worst player in the NHL (the bottom 10 were all goalies I think)
  • Zajac actually got better??? - I think this is a small sample size issue for both years
  • What is not included in this table is the breakdown of Offensive GVT and Defensive GVT. About 85% of GVT came from defensive play. I don't know how this compares to most teams in most seasons but it might be near historically high.

 

NHL Rank                          GVT/82  GVT/82(Last)   Difference

42        Patrik Elias                  23.7     19.4     4.3

68        Andy Greene               21.1     9.4       11.7

165      Ilya Kovalchuk             18.6     24.3     -5.7

256      Mark Fayne                 15.1     4.7       10.4

269      Adam Larsson             13.7     4.2       9.5

421      Dainius Zubrus            13.7     10.0     3.7

233      Adam Henrique           12.6     15.4     -2.8

231      Ryan Carter                 12.5     -1.3      13.8

203      David Clarkson            12.5     8.6       3.9

369      Andrei Loktionov         12.1     -0.8      12.9

393      Henrik Tallinder           12.1     0.4       11.7

219      Stephen Gionta           11.9     0.0       11.9

218      Marek Zidlicky              11.9     3.3       8.6

340      Anton Volchenkov        10.2     8.3       1.9

352      Steve Bernier               7.3       1.0       6.3

360      Travis Zajac                  7.1       6.6       0.5

413      Alexei Ponikarovsky     6.7       5.3       1.4

602      Stefan Matteau            4.3       0.0       4.3

570      Martin Brodeur            3.6       3.8       -0.2

618      Peter Harrold               3.5       3.0       0.5

523      Bryce Salvador            3.4       8.6       -5.2

680      Tom Kostopoulos         1.8       -1.5      3.3

630      Matt D'Agostini             1.8       4.3       -2.5

640      Steve Sullivan              1.1         5.3       -4.2

837      Jacob Josefson            -2.2      7.2       -9.4

899      Johan Hedberg            -27.0    18.8     -45.8



 


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#2 NewarkDevil5

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Posted 30 April 2013 - 01:16 PM

I'm sorry, I really should look this up, but quite frankly I don't feel like it. What does GVT stand for and what does it represent?


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#3 ATLL765

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Posted 30 April 2013 - 01:24 PM

I'm sorry, I really should look this up, but quite frankly I don't feel like it. What does GVT stand for and what does it represent?

Copied straight from http://www.hockeyprospectus.com/glossary/ :

GVT (Individual)

Goals Versus Threshold. Developed by Tom Awad 
of Hockey Prospectus, GVT measures a player's 
worth in comparison to a typical fringe NHL player. 
GVT has two major advantages over most metrics: it's 
measured in goals, which are easily equated to wins, 
and it is capable of comparing players across multiple 
positions and multiple eras. GVT is the summation of 
OGVT, GGVT, DGVT, and SGVT.

GVT (Team)

Goals Versus Threshold for a team is equal to the 
team's goal differential. By definition Team GVT 
= sum of Player GVT - Replacement Level (which 
GVT defines as 1.5 goals per game or 123 goals per 
season).

OGVT

Offensive Goals Versus Threshold is the portion of 
GVT measuring a player's ability to generate goals. 
OGVT measures a player's contribution to goal creation.

SGVT

Shootout Goals Versus Threshold is a measure of 
a skater's or goaltender's value in the shootout. It is 
based on the player's ability to score or prevent goals 
in the shootout versus a league average player in the 
same situation.

DGVT

Defensive Goals Versus Threshold. This stat measures 
a player's worth, in goals, at shot suppression.

Edited by ATLL765, 30 April 2013 - 01:26 PM.

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#4 NewarkDevil5

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Posted 30 April 2013 - 01:32 PM

Copied straight from http://www.hockeyprospectus.com/glossary/ :

GVT (Individual)

Goals Versus Threshold. Developed by Tom Awad 
of Hockey Prospectus, GVT measures a player's 
worth in comparison to a typical fringe NHL player. 
GVT has two major advantages over most metrics: it's 
measured in goals, which are easily equated to wins, 
and it is capable of comparing players across multiple 
positions and multiple eras. GVT is the summation of 
OGVT, GGVT, DGVT, and SGVT.

GVT (Team)

Goals Versus Threshold for a team is equal to the 
team's goal differential. By definition Team GVT 
= sum of Player GVT - Replacement Level (which 
GVT defines as 1.5 goals per game or 123 goals per 
season).

 

So the Threshold is essentially an arbitrary level meant to be some sort of fringe average?


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#5 StormJosh

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Posted 30 April 2013 - 01:39 PM

So the Threshold is essentially an arbitrary level meant to be some sort of fringe average?

 

Basically. A player who gets a GVT of 0.0 can be considered your generic AHL call-up. Therefore, players who are NHL calibre should be consistently achieving GVTs above 0.


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#6 NewarkDevil5

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Posted 30 April 2013 - 01:52 PM

Basically. A player who gets a GVT of 0.0 can be considered your generic AHL call-up. Therefore, players who are NHL calibre should be consistently achieving GVTs above 0.

 

Ok, fair enough. Sorry, I just have never had the inclination to pursue the study of advanced statistics. Not that I don't think they probably have merit, but at a certain level there's a part of me that just doesn't want to break the game down into such an exact science.

 

I do have natural curiosity though to know what it all means though.


Edited by NewarkDevil5, 30 April 2013 - 01:52 PM.

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#7 Devs1965

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Posted 30 April 2013 - 06:34 PM

I agree with some of this but Volchenkov had a crap season in my eyes, I agree about hedberg, and right on with Patty , I really hope Patrick Elias is in a Devils uniform start of camp!
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