Of course the shot differential is going to have something to do with your save percentage. You're just being dishonest as a numbers guy if you don't think that's the case.
Except it doesn't. Find me the correlation. Shots are shots. You think NJ's shot prevention only prevents the easy shots? Why bother doing it, then?
Obviously in the abstract, if shots against got high or low enough, yes, we'd have to conclude that there's an impact, but I don't think that's the case in the NHL. We see plenty of teams who give up lots of shots with high and low save percentages and vice versa to conclude that there's no correlation (again, absent lazy scoring which the Devils do have and affects Brodeur's save percentage a few points each year). Of course you think Hasek gave up rebounds that increased his save percentage.
EDIT: there may be a very slight correlation based on the fact that teams who get good goaltending tend to lead more often in games and therefore face more lower percentage shots (and therefore more shots overall) in 3rd periods. But I don't think this is particularly significant.
The deal here isn't that he's not better than a 41 year old Marty. It's that he's not worth making a commitment to, which starts by having to trade for him while he still has inflated value. He's 25 and it's pretty likely the sloppyness in his game is never going away.
Except for his markedly better results over the last 3 years, to the tune of what would be worth several wins in the standings to a team that's missed the playoffs 2 out of the last 3 years, yes, I agree he's not better than a 41 year old Brodeur.
Edited by Triumph, 23 June 2013 - 06:51 PM.