Jump to content

Photo

Will the Devils trade up in this year's draft?


  • Please log in to reply
100 replies to this topic

Poll: Will the Devils trade up in this year's draft? (42 member(s) have cast votes)

Where will the Devils make their first selection in the 2013 draft?

  1. 1-8 overall (11 votes [26.19%])

    Percentage of vote: 26.19%

  2. 9 (24 votes [57.14%])

    Percentage of vote: 57.14%

  3. 10+ (7 votes [16.67%])

    Percentage of vote: 16.67%

Vote Guests cannot vote

#61 Daniel

Daniel

    Hall of Famer

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5,896 posts

Posted 09 June 2013 - 10:00 PM

What do Mock drafts matter? He was taken 38th so that was his true value at the time to the NHL GMs.


They matter for purposes of evaluating someone's potential trade value after the fact. If you're talking about a player who has performed well after being drafted, it's helpful that he had first round talent, but fell for whatever reason. It helps Brandon Saad, probably Martin Frk, and other types that fall in the draft because of "attitude" or similar issues.

In any event, it's kind of funny that some people who just a short while ago talked about how people obsess too much over where someone was drafted.

Again, what no one has really refuted is that Merrill is a close to NHL ready defenseman that projects to be a first pairing defenseman. Usually that lands you in the top ten or top 15 picks of most drafts.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD
  • 0
Posted Image
I collect spores, molds and fungus.
Hello fellow American. This you should vote me. I leave power. Good. Thank you, thank you. If you vote me, I'm hot. What? Taxes, they'll be lower... son. The Democratic vote is the right thing to do Philadelphia, so do.
How do you spot risk? How do you avoid risk? And what makes it so risky?

#62 Devils731

Devils731

    A Legend

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 17,518 posts

Posted 09 June 2013 - 10:06 PM

I fail to see how mock drafts have anything to do with trade value. NHL GMs and NHL scouts said Merrill was worth the 38th overall pick at that time. They couldn't care less about where some mock drafts put Merrill.

For example, some mock drafts had Reece Scarlett as a solid second round pick. He fell to the 6th round. He's played very well since drafted. I think most Devils fans think he's a good prospect but I doubt he has much trade value since he's proven nothing at the AHL or NHL level.

Merrill has a similar issue of not having an AHL or NHL track record and he barely has a college record. I think you're really overvaluing Merrill's trade value by focusing on his positives and avoiding the negatives and risks associated with him.
  • 0
Your unconditional rejection of violence makes you smugly think of yourselves as noble, as enlightened, but in reality it is nothing less than abject moral capitulation to evil. Unconditional rejection of self-defense, because you think its a supposed surrender to violence, leaves you no resort but begging for mercy or offering appeasement.

-Terry Goodkind


Sex Panther cologne -- 50 percent of the time, it works every time.

-Anchorman

The best time to plant a tree is 20 years ago. The second best time is now.

-Anonymous

Keeper of Section 212-213's wayward step

#63 Daniel

Daniel

    Hall of Famer

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5,896 posts

Posted 09 June 2013 - 10:33 PM

I fail to see how mock drafts have anything to do with trade value. NHL GMs and NHL scouts said Merrill was worth the 38th overall pick at that time. They couldn't care less about where some mock drafts put Merrill.
For example, some mock drafts had Reece Scarlett as a solid second round pick. He fell to the 6th round. He's played very well since drafted. I think most Devils fans think he's a good prospect but I doubt he has much trade value since he's proven nothing at the AHL or NHL level.
Merrill has a similar issue of not having an AHL or NHL track record and he barely has a college record. I think you're really overvaluing Merrill's trade value by focusing on his positives and avoiding the negatives and risks associated with him.


The only negatives that I hear about him are the off-ice issues and his injury. Both dont appear to be concerns for the Devils at this point, so I can only go on that. At this point, his risks are the same as any defensive prospect who is projecting to be a first pairing defenseman, I would say even less so in that Merrill is a bit older, has shown he could perform at a high level in NCAA play, and even during a short stint in the AHL.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD
  • 0
Posted Image
I collect spores, molds and fungus.
Hello fellow American. This you should vote me. I leave power. Good. Thank you, thank you. If you vote me, I'm hot. What? Taxes, they'll be lower... son. The Democratic vote is the right thing to do Philadelphia, so do.
How do you spot risk? How do you avoid risk? And what makes it so risky?

#64 Devils731

Devils731

    A Legend

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 17,518 posts

Posted 09 June 2013 - 10:40 PM

The only negatives that I hear about him are the off-ice issues and his injury. Both dont appear to be concerns for the Devils at this point, so I can only go on that. At this point, his risks are the same as any defensive prospect who is projecting to be a first pairing defenseman, I would say even less so in that Merrill is a bit older, has shown he could perform at a high level in NCAA play, and even during a short stint in the AHL. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD

 

We can agree to disagree on whether his off ice issues and injury impact his trade value, that's just a judgement call and nobody can be right or wrong.

 

To bring it back to his trade value in general, if it's agreed the Devils need forwards, would you trade the 9th overall pick for Frk?  Since you mentioned him earlier.


  • 0
Your unconditional rejection of violence makes you smugly think of yourselves as noble, as enlightened, but in reality it is nothing less than abject moral capitulation to evil. Unconditional rejection of self-defense, because you think its a supposed surrender to violence, leaves you no resort but begging for mercy or offering appeasement.

-Terry Goodkind


Sex Panther cologne -- 50 percent of the time, it works every time.

-Anchorman

The best time to plant a tree is 20 years ago. The second best time is now.

-Anonymous

Keeper of Section 212-213's wayward step

#65 Daniel

Daniel

    Hall of Famer

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5,896 posts

Posted 09 June 2013 - 10:57 PM

The only negatives that I hear about him are the off-ice issues and his injury. Both dont appear to be concerns for the Devils at this point, so I can only go on that. At this point, his risks are the same as any defensive prospect who is projecting to be a first pairing defenseman, I would say even less so in that Merrill is a bit older, has shown he could perform at a high level in NCAA play, and even during a short stint in the AHL. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD

We can agree to disagree on whether his off ice issues and injury impact his trade value, that's just a judgement call and nobody can be right or wrong.

To bring it back to his trade value in general, if it's agreed the Devils need forwards, would you trade the 9th overall pick for Frk? Since you mentioned him earlier.


Frk was just a name I threw out there as someone that slipped in last years draft, but is playing well now.

I see the point you're getting at. Lets put it this way. Kuznetsev was drafted at the end of the first round in 2010, but that's a trade you would make. Or perhaps Emersen Etem, who evidently is playing well.

I try to be as even keeled about prospects and especially trade scenarios. I like Damon Severson, but I realize he still has a lot to prove before you can call him anything more than a Mark Fayne replacement, and hence, doesn't have much trade value on his own.

Merrill though is someone to be legitimately excited about, and haven't heard anything that suggests I'm missing something.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD
  • 0
Posted Image
I collect spores, molds and fungus.
Hello fellow American. This you should vote me. I leave power. Good. Thank you, thank you. If you vote me, I'm hot. What? Taxes, they'll be lower... son. The Democratic vote is the right thing to do Philadelphia, so do.
How do you spot risk? How do you avoid risk? And what makes it so risky?

#66 Triumph

Triumph

    A Legend

  • Mod
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 27,928 posts

Posted 09 June 2013 - 10:57 PM

I fail to see how mock drafts have anything to do with trade value. NHL GMs and NHL scouts said Merrill was worth the 38th overall pick at that time. They couldn't care less about where some mock drafts put Merrill.

For example, some mock drafts had Reece Scarlett as a solid second round pick. He fell to the 6th round. He's played very well since drafted. I think most Devils fans think he's a good prospect but I doubt he has much trade value since he's proven nothing at the AHL or NHL level.

Merrill has a similar issue of not having an AHL or NHL track record and he barely has a college record. I think you're really overvaluing Merrill's trade value by focusing on his positives and avoiding the negatives and risks associated with him.

 

I think it's hard to say that Merrill's 'true value' was 38th - he could've been higher on some boards but those people might not have had picks or the wherewithal to get them - but agree that mock drafts are a totally ridiculous way of showing that to be the case.  There's really nothing worse about entry drafts than mocks.


  • 0

http://drivingplay.blogspot.com - The blog with three first lines
 


#67 Daniel

Daniel

    Hall of Famer

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5,896 posts

Posted 09 June 2013 - 11:16 PM

I fail to see how mock drafts have anything to do with trade value. NHL GMs and NHL scouts said Merrill was worth the 38th overall pick at that time. They couldn't care less about where some mock drafts put Merrill.
For example, some mock drafts had Reece Scarlett as a solid second round pick. He fell to the 6th round. He's played very well since drafted. I think most Devils fans think he's a good prospect but I doubt he has much trade value since he's proven nothing at the AHL or NHL level.
Merrill has a similar issue of not having an AHL or NHL track record and he barely has a college record. I think you're really overvaluing Merrill's trade value by focusing on his positives and avoiding the negatives and risks associated with him.

I think it's hard to say that Merrill's 'true value' was 38th - he could've been higher on some boards but those people might not have had picks or the wherewithal to get them - but agree that mock drafts are a totally ridiculous way of showing that to be the case. There's really nothing worse about entry drafts than mocks.


I'm not saying you should look at Craig Buttons mock from three years ago to gauge Merrill's or whoevers worth. They're just proxies for folks like us that weren't in draft rooms to know what value teams put on this or that player and why.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD
  • 0
Posted Image
I collect spores, molds and fungus.
Hello fellow American. This you should vote me. I leave power. Good. Thank you, thank you. If you vote me, I'm hot. What? Taxes, they'll be lower... son. The Democratic vote is the right thing to do Philadelphia, so do.
How do you spot risk? How do you avoid risk? And what makes it so risky?

#68 Triumph

Triumph

    A Legend

  • Mod
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 27,928 posts

Posted 10 June 2013 - 09:44 AM

I'm not saying you should look at Craig Buttons mock from three years ago to gauge Merrill's or whoevers worth. They're just proxies for folks like us that weren't in draft rooms to know what value teams put on this or that player and why. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD

 

They're not that at all.  They're people's guesses.  They're mildly useful in football's 1st round because teams draft for need in football - ditto the NBA because players' true value can be pretty easily ascertained (the list of NBA 2nd round picks who've become stars is very short).  They are totally useless in hockey where value is more murky and teams may or may not be drafting for need.  I suppose there could be a kind of efficient market theory of mock drafts, but most of these people don't have the information NHL teams have.


  • 0

http://drivingplay.blogspot.com - The blog with three first lines
 


#69 Daniel

Daniel

    Hall of Famer

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5,896 posts

Posted 10 June 2013 - 10:09 AM

They're not that at all.  They're people's guesses.  They're mildly useful in football's 1st round because teams draft for need in football - ditto the NBA because players' true value can be pretty easily ascertained (the list of NBA 2nd round picks who've become stars is very short).  They are totally useless in hockey where value is more murky and teams may or may not be drafting for need.  I suppose there could be a kind of efficient market theory of mock drafts, but most of these people don't have the information NHL teams have.

 

I think you're missing the point.  As you said, a team that drafted at 11 might have ranked Merrill ranked as number 20, but he wasn't around when it came time for them to pick in the second round, or maybe the guy that was ranked 18 was still around when they had their next pick.  We obviously don't know this for sure.  However, unless you can find me each team's big board, a good guess your average outsider has for purposes of a message board discussion about a prospect's potential trade value is where media types or other third parties that generally have an idea of what they're talking about ranked a particular player at the time.  Some of those people had Merrill ranked in the mid-teens, high twenties.  So it's not unreasonable to assume, again for our purposes, that at least a few teams had Merrill ranked in those slots. 

 

So the hypothetcal trade discussion between the Devils, and say, Edmonton, could go something like:  "Merrill projects to be a first pairing defenseman who will probably be in the NHL this year or next year."  "Yeah, but why I am trading the seventh overall for a guy that was drafted in the second round".  "We had him ranked at number 15, and also believe that a lot of teams had him rated as a first round selection on their boards at the time.  What he's shown in college and in his stint in the AHL gives you a strong reason to believe that he'll live up to that."  


  • 0
Posted Image
I collect spores, molds and fungus.
Hello fellow American. This you should vote me. I leave power. Good. Thank you, thank you. If you vote me, I'm hot. What? Taxes, they'll be lower... son. The Democratic vote is the right thing to do Philadelphia, so do.
How do you spot risk? How do you avoid risk? And what makes it so risky?

#70 SMantzas

SMantzas

    Assistant Coach

  • Mod
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2,897 posts

Posted 10 June 2013 - 10:14 AM

I don't see why Merrill's draft position THREE years ago has any bearing on his value now. Although he's missed a lot of time, he still projects to be a top 4 dman, possibly top pairing. I doubt Merrill alone is enough to get the 7th, but I'd rather take our chances with him. If Zidlicky doesn't re-sign, it might clear up a spot for Gelinas or Merrill to QB the PP.


  • 0

#71 Daniel

Daniel

    Hall of Famer

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5,896 posts

Posted 10 June 2013 - 11:02 AM

I don't see why Merrill's draft position THREE years ago has any bearing on his value now. Although he's missed a lot of time, he still projects to be a top 4 dman, possibly top pairing. I doubt Merrill alone is enough to get the 7th, but I'd rather take our chances with him. If Zidlicky doesn't re-sign, it might clear up a spot for Gelinas or Merrill to QB the PP.

 

I think his draft position has some bearing on his trade value because he has yet to play an NHL game.   That tends to go away once a player has a year or two of NHL experience.  I'm not an NHL executive, so I couldn't tell you for sure though.

 

So far as whether you would want to trade him for a pick in this draft -- say at 15 or above -- depends on what you think of the defense now and the other defenseman in the system.  If you think you can live without Merrill in the future, and end up with, say, two out of Monahan, Lindholm, Shinkaruk, Domi, Horvat, Lazar, it's something worth pursuing.  Basically, you're looking to repeat what the Flyers got out of the 2003 first round in Carter and Richards. 


  • 0
Posted Image
I collect spores, molds and fungus.
Hello fellow American. This you should vote me. I leave power. Good. Thank you, thank you. If you vote me, I'm hot. What? Taxes, they'll be lower... son. The Democratic vote is the right thing to do Philadelphia, so do.
How do you spot risk? How do you avoid risk? And what makes it so risky?

#72 SMantzas

SMantzas

    Assistant Coach

  • Mod
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2,897 posts

Posted 10 June 2013 - 12:37 PM

I don't agree with that reasoning, Daniel. You have a guy like Angelo Esposito who was basically a throw in on the Hossa to Pitt deal. A year or two later, it was clear he was not going to make the NHL. The point I'm trying to make is that some prospects fizzle out and some get better with time. Obviously this is common knowledge, but Merrill's talent was never a question. Like you pointed out earlier, Merrill easily had first round talent. Some character issues and poor interviews made him fall to the second round.
  • 0

#73 Daniel

Daniel

    Hall of Famer

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5,896 posts

Posted 10 June 2013 - 01:13 PM

I don't agree with that reasoning, Daniel. You have a guy like Angelo Esposito who was basically a throw in on the Hossa to Pitt deal. A year or two later, it was clear he was not going to make the NHL. The point I'm trying to make is that some prospects fizzle out and some get better with time. Obviously this is common knowledge, but Merrill's talent was never a question. Like you pointed out earlier, Merrill easily had first round talent. Some character issues and poor interviews made him fall to the second round.

 

With a few exceptions, all prospects have risks.  I get it.  It's just a matter of how much you trust your scouts and what kind of risks you can afford to take at any particular time. 

 

I'm not qualified to assess whether trading Merrill for any particular prospect/draft pick is a good idea or not, other than for purposes of having a discussion with other Devils' fans.  So far as I know, Lou hasn't called me to get my views on the matter.  I can only go on what I've heard that this draft is supposed to be really deep.  It could be like 2003, where, if you had two first round picks where the Devils might realisitcally end up with some kind of trade, you could end up with something approximating Vanek (yes Tri I know Vanek was drafted 5, but you get the point) and Parise.  In the meantime, Merrill might end up being a second pairing defenseman, and Severson turns out to be better player anyway. That's the kind of scenario where you end up being a perennial Cup contender.  Or you could end up with Bernier and Zherdev, with Merrill turning out to be as good as Suter, and you're back to the drawing board in two years. 


  • 0
Posted Image
I collect spores, molds and fungus.
Hello fellow American. This you should vote me. I leave power. Good. Thank you, thank you. If you vote me, I'm hot. What? Taxes, they'll be lower... son. The Democratic vote is the right thing to do Philadelphia, so do.
How do you spot risk? How do you avoid risk? And what makes it so risky?

#74 vadvlfan

vadvlfan

    All-Star

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,643 posts

Posted 10 June 2013 - 08:22 PM

I don't think we have enough to give up to move down to 7th.  We'll get a very decent prospect @ 9 .  Unless Lou can get us another 2nd/3rd rounder w/ say Jets/ or Jackets or Yotes.  Lou's past comments have been the value many gm's put on specific players making the trade stupid. 

I think the thought process might be after the 1st 6 picks, it's six of one half dozen of the other.


  • 0

"Never make someone a priority when all you are to them is an option" - M.A.


#75 ATLL765

ATLL765

    Assistant Coach

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2,361 posts

Posted 11 June 2013 - 05:07 PM

I don't think we have enough to give up to move down to 7th.  We'll get a very decent prospect @ 9 .  Unless Lou can get us another 2nd/3rd rounder w/ say Jets/ or Jackets or Yotes.  Lou's past comments have been the value many gm's put on specific players making the trade stupid. 

I think the thought process might be after the 1st 6 picks, it's six of one half dozen of the other.

Agree. That's why I feel like if we don't see someone on the board we really wanted when it gets to us, I wouldn't be surprised to see us trade down to 15-18 and draft Lazar, if we can pick up another high 2nd rd pick for that, I'd be pretty happy.


  • 0

#76 capo

capo

    Senior Devil

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 849 posts

Posted 11 June 2013 - 05:45 PM

I could see a team wanting to trade up to the #9 hole to grab one of the defenesemen.  June 30th is going to be an exciting day.  I don't think the Devils are going to draft #9.  Just a feeling.  I don't have any thing to back it up.  I just think Lou will move the pick at a chance at landing another pick along with the 1st a few slots later.


  • 0

#77 Onddeck

Onddeck

    Head Coach

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3,123 posts

Posted 11 June 2013 - 06:56 PM

I could see a team wanting to trade up to the #9 hole to grab one of the defenesemen. June 30th is going to be an exciting day. I don't think the Devils are going to draft #9. Just a feeling. I don't have any thing to back it up. I just think Lou will move the pick at a chance at landing another pick along with the 1st a few slots later.

I do not want to see that happen. I understand it's a deep draft but te talent is so strong in the top 10 I don't wanna miss out.

Unless of course all the forwards as e talked about are gone by 9
  • 0

Somebody's gotta be the hero... Why not me?


#78 njd3b1ink

njd3b1ink

    Senior Devil

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 974 posts

Posted 11 June 2013 - 09:55 PM

I do not want to see that happen. I understand it's a deep draft but te talent is so strong in the top 10 I don't wanna miss out.

Unless of course all the forwards as e talked about are gone by 9

+1


  • 0

#79 vadvlfan

vadvlfan

    All-Star

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,643 posts

Posted 12 June 2013 - 02:56 PM

+1

We only have 4 picks. 1st, 2nd, 4th, & 6th. If lou can get us another 2nd or early third, might be worth it. He may not find a partner.  Unless some team is really hot for one of those d-men.


  • 0

"Never make someone a priority when all you are to them is an option" - M.A.


#80 ATLL765

ATLL765

    Assistant Coach

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2,361 posts

Posted 12 June 2013 - 04:03 PM

How about I pose another question here: If we trade down, where will we trade down to and who do you think we'll pick?

I've already stated my thoughts on this, I think we'd trade down to around 15 and draft Lazar.


  • 0




0 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users