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Your thought on today / about the team so far ?


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#181 Triumph

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Posted 31 July 2013 - 05:07 PM

I'm not that worried about this team's finishing ability.  I'm more worried about them generating shots in the first place.


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#182 Daniel

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Posted 31 July 2013 - 05:46 PM

I was just thinking about this, when was the last time we had this many solid passers on our team. Elias, Josefson, Loktionov, Zajac and now Jagr. Even Clowe is known to be a very good passer from behind the goal line. I think you may see someone like Zubrus come out of nowhere and score 20 goals.


You had four of those guys last year, plus Kovalchuk who is/was a good passer, when he stayed away from the high risk passes. I can't speak to Clowe, since I haven't seen him play with any kind of regularity. Same thing with Jagr at this stage of his career.

I would say instead when was the last time we had goaltending as good as it's supposed to be this year. If you're a save percentage kind of guy, you can look at the 2011-2012 playoffs, where the results turned out to be pretty good.


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#183 Triumph

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Posted 31 July 2013 - 06:29 PM

You had four of those guys last year, plus Kovalchuk who is/was a good passer, when he stayed away from the high risk passes. I can't speak to Clowe, since I haven't seen him play with any kind of regularity. Same thing with Jagr at this stage of his career. I would say instead when was the last time we had goaltending as good as it's supposed to be this year. If you're a save percentage kind of guy, you can look at the 2011-2012 playoffs, where the results turned out to be pretty good. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD

 

You had 3 of those guys last year.  Loktionov and Josefson played a combined 49 games.  But I wouldn't really consider Josefson that good a passer - hopefully he gets a chance to demonstrate that ability this year.


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#184 Daniel

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Posted 31 July 2013 - 06:50 PM


You had four of those guys last year, plus Kovalchuk who is/was a good passer, when he stayed away from the high risk passes. I can't speak to Clowe, since I haven't seen him play with any kind of regularity. Same thing with Jagr at this stage of his career. I would say instead when was the last time we had goaltending as good as it's supposed to be this year. If you're a save percentage kind of guy, you can look at the 2011-2012 playoffs, where the results turned out to be pretty good. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD



You had 3 of those guys last year. Loktionov and Josefson played a combined 49 games. But I wouldn't really consider Josefson that good a passer - hopefully he gets a chance to demonstrate that ability this year.


Josefson got demoted, so obviously something wasn't working. The point though, is that they played enough to give you some kind of baseline to judge how good the Devils will be at passing this year, as opposed to last year based purely on looking at the roster.


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#185 caron14

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Posted 31 July 2013 - 09:08 PM

i love our team right now (considering henrique is with us) no superstar but a big forward deep remind me the 2003 team


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#186 eaglejelly

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Posted 01 August 2013 - 10:32 AM

I'm not that worried about this team's finishing ability.  I'm more worried about them generating shots in the first place.

 

I guess you weren’t watching the Devils the last season


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#187 Daniel

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Posted 01 August 2013 - 11:16 AM

 

I guess you weren’t watching the Devils the last season

 

 

I suppose what he means is that the Devils lost their two best shot producers this offseason.  If you believe in luck and that more shots equals more goals over a long enough period of time, with less emphasis on who's doing the shooting, the lack of scoring will get even worse. 

 

It's going to be a very interesting season.


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#188 Daniel

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Posted 01 August 2013 - 11:22 AM

i love our team right now (considering henrique is with us) no superstar but a big forward deep remind me the 2003 team

 

The 2003 team had two Hall of Fame defensemen, one of whom was in the prime of his career, the other that was close enough to it.  You can also add Rafalski to that list.  It's questionable whether any of the defenseman that are on the roster this year would be anything other than bottom pairing guys on the 2003 team. 


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#189 eaglejelly

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Posted 01 August 2013 - 11:36 AM

I suppose what he means is that the Devils lost their two best shot producers this offseason.  If you believe in luck and that more shots equals more goals over a long enough period of time, with less emphasis on who's doing the shooting, the lack of scoring will get even worse

 

It's going to be a very interesting season.

 

You can't score less than 0


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#190 Triumph

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Posted 01 August 2013 - 11:43 AM

 

I guess you weren’t watching the Devils the last season

 

 

 

I suppose what he means is that the Devils lost their two best shot producers this offseason.  If you believe in luck and that more shots equals more goals over a long enough period of time, with less emphasis on who's doing the shooting, the lack of scoring will get even worse. 

 

It's going to be a very interesting season.

 

The Devils lost their two 'best' shot producers (best is in quotes, since Kovalchuk's shot rate was abysmal last year), but they also lost the two forwards who shot the worst % wise in the 12-13 season (at even strength).  And the Devils didn't generate many shots last year besides on the power play - they were 25th in the NHL in shot rate at even strength.  I don't see them improving that number with this group, unfortunately. 

 

6 yr S% averages of all current NJ forwards:

 

Zubrus:  11.8%

Loktionov:  11.7%

Ryder:  11.06%

Henrique:  10.27%

Jagr:  9.5%

Bernier:  9.32%

Zajac:  9.14%

Elias:  9.09%

S. Gionta:  8.62%

Josefson:  7.89%

Clowe:  7.85%

Carter:  7.69%

Barch:  7.32%

Olesz:  7.18%

Tedenby:  5.26%

 

Clowe's worse than I would've thought - although he has shot 16% on the PP over the last 6 years, probably Thornton-related - but yeah, these numbers don't look too awful, if Jagr and Ryder can still finish.


Edited by Triumph, 01 August 2013 - 11:43 AM.

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#191 eaglejelly

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Posted 01 August 2013 - 11:53 AM

You are confusing me. You back up your argument that you are concerned about not producing shots instead of scoring with stats of the shot percentages?


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#192 Jas0nMacIsaac

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Posted 01 August 2013 - 08:41 PM

Here is food for thought, if NJ goes from a .905 sv% team to a .925 sv% team they save 38 goals given last years shots over an 82 game season.


Edited by Jas0nMacIsaac, 01 August 2013 - 08:42 PM.

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#193 Triumph

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Posted 01 August 2013 - 08:49 PM

 

You are confusing me. You back up your argument that you are concerned about not producing shots instead of scoring with stats of the shot percentages?

 

 

Sure.  NJ's players' career shooting percentages aren't awful - there's no one in there that great, but there's no reason to expect them to shoot that bad again this year.  Unless Kovalchuk was really suppressing NJ's total shots (something which I'd believe), I'd be surprised if they're anywhere close to average in shots for.  On the other hand, it'd be easy for them to shoot around the NHL average shooting percentage wise.


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#194 Derek21

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Posted 01 August 2013 - 10:47 PM

If you have dependable goaltending and solid D, that's half the battle. The Devils have the first part. Adding Schneider should keep their GAA down. The Devils might not register a lot of shots but they don't give up much. They'll need more from Larsson and probably are hoping Gelinas or Merrill are up by the next calendar year.

 

Offensively, the play of Zajac and Henrique has to go up. Adding Jagr gives them another puck possession guy. Even at his advanced age, No.68 has to be accounted for. Ryder is a reliable finisher. 20-25 goals. Clowe is more of an injury risk. You'll love his compete. He's not the best skater but is good in the corners and does the dirty work. They still got 'ole reliable Elias, who is my favorite Devil. Amazing how consistent he still is. He's the man. You got solid depth with Zubrus, Carter and Bernier. They don't have to have a 30-goal guy to succeed. Scoring by committee can be just as effective.  

 

They'll probably have a watchful eye on Boucher. A full year in Albany can't hurt. He's definitely got some quick hands. I'd say their future is looking good.


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#195 capo

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Posted 02 August 2013 - 08:47 AM

For some reason people want to keep bringing up save% and only consider goaltending.  When in fact your defense is probably just as liable.  The defense is largely just the same as it was.  Unless you think Merrill and Schneider together make up for the pylons on D that give up high precentage shots on the goaltender.


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#196 DH26

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Posted 02 August 2013 - 09:35 AM

For some reason people want to keep bringing up save% and only consider goaltending.  When in fact your defense is probably just as liable.  The defense is largely just the same as it was.  Unless you think Merrill and Schneider together make up for the pylons on D that give up high precentage shots on the goaltender.

 

defenseman keep shots down, and ours were very good at that. They don't really change the overall quality of shots apparently. And Schneider's obviously much better than Brodeur at this point for sv%, so yeah that'll be improved. Yay fancy stats


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#197 njdevsftw

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Posted 02 August 2013 - 09:44 AM

You are seriously suggesting the quality of your defense does not influence the quality of the shots allowed?
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#198 Triumph

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Posted 02 August 2013 - 09:57 AM

You are seriously suggesting the quality of your defense does not influence the quality of the shots allowed?

 

There's no evidence yet that defensemen possess the ability to alter a goaltender's save percentage.  If this is an ability, it's a very small one.

 

I imagine if you had a defense of all minor league quality players that would change, but how often does that happen?


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#199 njdevsftw

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Posted 02 August 2013 - 11:00 AM

Seems like common sense to me.. :o So, your theory is that a goalie playing behind Zdeno Chara gets the same quality of shots as one playing behind Brett Clark? Just fewer?
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#200 Triumph

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Posted 02 August 2013 - 11:29 AM

Seems like common sense to me.. :o So, your theory is that a goalie playing behind Zdeno Chara gets the same quality of shots as one playing behind Brett Clark? Just fewer?

 

Yeah, basically.  Or that even if there are abilities to limit shot quality among defensemen, it's canceled out by them playing against better shooting competition.  I know it doesn't make intuitive sense, but it's not really an ability that can be located at even strength.  It might exist on the penalty kill.


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