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The Faker's Guide to Advanced Stats in the NHL


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#1 devilsrule33

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Posted 19 July 2013 - 02:33 PM

As always, a very good article by Grantland's Sean McIndoe. And thought it be a good one to post due to the debate we see throughout this forum. I hope everyone gives a read.

 

Step 10: Understand the role of random chance

 

Random chance is a nice way of saying “luck,” and that’s good because luck is a dirty word in sports. If we say a team was lucky in a win, it sounds like we’re saying they didn’t deserve it. And as fans, it’s more satisfying if we can tell ourselves that every result was the right one, and that wins and losses are earned by skill and effort alone.

 

But the truth is that, like any sport, luck plays a huge role in hockey. Some stats can offer insight into its impact. PDO is a simple but crucial stat that takes a player/team’s on-ice save percentage and shooting percentage and adds them together, with anything significantly above (or below) 1.000 being a red flag of especially good (or bad) luck. Luck isn’t sustainable, so keep an eye on teams and players who’ve had an especially lucky or unlucky stretch. They’re great candidates to bounce back or crash back to earth.

 

There are other ways to try to measure luck, but they all lead us back to the same place: A lot of what happens in this sport is just plain random.

 

Practical tip: Not everything needs a narrative. Embrace randomness.

 


http://www.grantland...tats-in-the-nhl


Edited by devilsrule33, 19 July 2013 - 04:00 PM.

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#2 DH26

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Posted 19 July 2013 - 03:45 PM

A very good article by Grantland's Sean McIndoe as always. And thought it be a good one to post due to the debate we see throughout this forum. I hope everyone gives a read.

 

 


http://www.grantland...tats-in-the-nhl

 

I think if more of the discourse was humorous or friendly like this or more matter of fact like Tri on here (even if Sterio doesn't like it), it'd be easier for it to gain traction w/ the MSM and mainstream fans outside the hockey twitter bubble. But when the most visible people of the movement are, for lack of a better word, complete a$$holes like Tyler Dellow or constant whiners like the Leafs fans or the newbies that are seen as threats like Ellen Etchingham or the stupid people like Colin from PPP (who also falls under whiner), instead of the more matter of fact, smart and more willing to help people like Eric from Broad St Hockey or Cam Charron who aren't the biggest self promoters like Dellow, it's hard to get into it. There needs to be more teaching and conversation bt the two sides instead of the stats side calling everyone else morons and thinking they know everything when Dellow didn't even know who Andy Greene was


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#3 Devils731

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Posted 19 July 2013 - 03:48 PM

 There needs to be more teaching and conversation bt the two sides instead of the stats side calling everyone else morons and thinking they know everything when Dellow didn't even know who Andy Greene was

 

I know his NHL player ID #, why do I need to know his name? :lol:


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#4 DH26

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Posted 19 July 2013 - 03:52 PM

I know his NHL player ID #, why do I need to know his name? :lol:

 

For some of them that's what it seems like :P But obviously the MSM has to give it up w/ tracking hits and fights like they actually matter demonstrably/their impact can be seen if there is any and that SV% and Corsi/Fenwick are pretty reliable


Edited by DH26, 19 July 2013 - 03:52 PM.

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#5 Daniel

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Posted 19 July 2013 - 03:54 PM

Part of the problem is that if teams are actually using those stats, it isn't that well publicized. A Billy Beane type GM that explains what he's doing would go a long way to bringing it to the masses. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD
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#6 Devils731

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Posted 19 July 2013 - 03:58 PM

Part of the problem is that if teams are actually using those stats, it isn't that well publicized. A Billy Beane type GM that explains what he's doing would go a long way to bringing it to the masses. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD

 

My impression from media quotes is teams that are using them are trying to avoid talking about it much because they feel it gives them an edge.  If it becomes widely talked about that they believe they have an edge from using the advanced stats and more teams start using them, then the edge they're gaining is lessened.


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#7 Daniel

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Posted 19 July 2013 - 04:19 PM


Part of the problem is that if teams are actually using those stats, it isn't that well publicized. A Billy Beane type GM that explains what he's doing would go a long way to bringing it to the masses. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD



My impression from media quotes is teams that are using them are trying to avoid talking about it much because they feel it gives them an edge. If it becomes widely talked about that they believe they have an edge from using the advanced stats and more teams start using them, then the edge they're gaining is lessened.


Yeah, and unfortunately, I don't think Michael Lewis is going to write anything about it anytime soon.


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#8 Triumph

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Posted 19 July 2013 - 04:52 PM

I think if more of the discourse was humorous or friendly like this or more matter of fact like Tri on here (even if Sterio doesn't like it), it'd be easier for it to gain traction w/ the MSM and mainstream fans outside the hockey twitter bubble. But when the most visible people of the movement are, for lack of a better word, complete a$$holes like Tyler Dellow or constant whiners like the Leafs fans or the newbies that are seen as threats like Ellen Etchingham or the stupid people like Colin from PPP (who also falls under whiner), instead of the more matter of fact, smart and more willing to help people like Eric from Broad St Hockey or Cam Charron who aren't the biggest self promoters like Dellow, it's hard to get into it. There needs to be more teaching and conversation bt the two sides instead of the stats side calling everyone else morons and thinking they know everything when Dellow didn't even know who Andy Greene was

 

I totally agree with this, and have even unfollowed 'stats' people who make the same facile points over and over.  Dellow is really doing tremendous work, but god is he toxic in all other respects.


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#9 SterioDesign

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Posted 20 July 2013 - 06:09 PM

I think if more of the discourse was humorous or friendly like this or more matter of fact like Tri on here (even if Sterio doesn't like it), it'd be easier for it to gain traction w/ the MSM and mainstream fans outside the hockey twitter bubble. But when the most visible people of the movement are, for lack of a better word, complete a$$holes like Tyler Dellow or constant whiners like the Leafs fans or the newbies that are seen as threats like Ellen Etchingham or the stupid people like Colin from PPP (who also falls under whiner), instead of the more matter of fact, smart and more willing to help people like Eric from Broad St Hockey or Cam Charron who aren't the biggest self promoters like Dellow, it's hard to get into it. There needs to be more teaching and conversation bt the two sides instead of the stats side calling everyone else morons and thinking they know everything when Dellow didn't even know who Andy Greene was

 

for the record, i don't mind those stats. i use them myself to confirm "some stuff" but i hate how some people here use them in their argumentations. Thats different. 


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