As always, a very good article by Grantland's Sean McIndoe. And thought it be a good one to post due to the debate we see throughout this forum. I hope everyone gives a read.
Step 10: Understand the role of random chance
Random chance is a nice way of saying “luck,” and that’s good because luck is a dirty word in sports. If we say a team was lucky in a win, it sounds like we’re saying they didn’t deserve it. And as fans, it’s more satisfying if we can tell ourselves that every result was the right one, and that wins and losses are earned by skill and effort alone.
But the truth is that, like any sport, luck plays a huge role in hockey. Some stats can offer insight into its impact. PDO is a simple but crucial stat that takes a player/team’s on-ice save percentage and shooting percentage and adds them together, with anything significantly above (or below) 1.000 being a red flag of especially good (or bad) luck. Luck isn’t sustainable, so keep an eye on teams and players who’ve had an especially lucky or unlucky stretch. They’re great candidates to bounce back or crash back to earth.
There are other ways to try to measure luck, but they all lead us back to the same place: A lot of what happens in this sport is just plain random.
Practical tip: Not everything needs a narrative. Embrace randomness.
Edited by devilsrule33, 19 July 2013 - 04:00 PM.