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Kovy to Russian media: "Stanley Cup remains my target."


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#41 Daniel

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Posted 25 August 2013 - 06:24 PM

A 35 year old Kovalchuk who quit on the organization and wouldn't have played in the NHL for around half a decade doesn't seem too appealing to me. I'd rather improve the team at that point down the road with NHL free agents or prospect call ups. I'm sure there will be some better options than an old Kovalchuk.


Then there's the conspiracy theory that Lou and Kovy understood he would leave, just as the money was about to escalate. He plays in Russia for a few years, comes back and renegotiates a new more reasonable contract with no cap recapture consequences.




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#42 Triumph

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Posted 25 August 2013 - 06:24 PM

Last year was a quirk because of the lockout and his injury. And his first full year, he did quite well, as did the team, after MacLean was gone. No one on the team was worth their cap hit while MacLean was the coach. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD

 

Kovalchuk was exactly even under Jacques Lemaire at even strength (no empty net goals) in 2010-11.  I agree with Mantzas that that was tremendously fun to watch, but fantastic play?  Eh.


Edited by Triumph, 25 August 2013 - 06:25 PM.

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#43 Daniel

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Posted 25 August 2013 - 06:30 PM

The Classic Tri technique, find a player you want to make some bold contrarian statement about, use some esoteric stat that shows that he doesn't rank very high, get confronted by other players that are very good that don't rank too high, or players we know arent that great who are ranked relatively high, and then admit it only gives one a "general sense" of how good someone is, but nevertheless, still proves my point. I'm not trying to make some bold contrarian statement, and this isn't an esoteric stat. He was worth a 6.6 million cap hit, because you could count on him to score 35+ goals per 82 games And yet as a Devil he averaged 32.8 goals per 82 - but he could be counted on to score 35+. he was a point a game player Again, no he wasn't, or even particularly close. He was a .9 points per game player in 222 games - he was 21 short of being a point a game player. logs a lot of ice time And this is what you're missing. Yes, there is value to this, but it diminishes the power of his bulk stats because you don't replace Kovalchuk's ice time with thin air - another player would play his minutes, and another player would score some goals. Yeah, Kovalchuk shouldn't lead in points/60 on the PP because he plays with 2nd units and other guys don't, because he's double-shifting. But he's not even close to best in the league in total points on the PP. He got the most PP time of anybody and was 24th in points. These situations I think Kovalchuk is a fabulous player: 5 on 3 PP, 4 on 5 SH, 4 on 4. I don't think I'd take anyone over him on the 5 on 3 PP (even Ovechkin or Stamkos), if you need offense short-handed he's your man, and 4 on 4 I think he's very effective. But he's average at best 5 on 5 and above-average 5 on 4, and this isn't enough to pay a guy top dollars. Like 4978 said, he was worth it in one year, not worth it in 2 other years.

The other potential problem with doing an ice time/points analysis for some players is that it doesn't account for the decline in scoring some players get when they're playing with fourth line players. IIRC, Kovy in 2012 would get ice time pretty often with Carter and Bernier, or I should say, often enough that it would skew that figure. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD

Last year was a quirk because of the lockout and his injury. And his first full year, he did quite well, as did the team, after MacLean was gone. No one on the team was worth their cap hit while MacLean was the coach. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD Kovalchuk was exactly even under Jacques Lemaire at even strength (no empty net goals) in 2010-11. I agree with Mantzas that that was tremendously fun to watch, but fantastic play? Eh.

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#44 devilsfan26

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Posted 25 August 2013 - 10:13 PM

Kovalchuk wasn't worth his cap hit when he was here.  What would someone have to pay him to get him to come to the NHL?  More than he is worth, certainly.

Well obviously I'm not saying I'd take him back at any cap hit.  My point was that if he will come back at a reasonable cap hit, I'm not going to be upset about it just because he left the team in the past.


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#45 msweet

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Posted 25 August 2013 - 10:24 PM

Don't allow Putin to touch the Stanley cup or it might come true.

 

awesome post


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#46 Triumph

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Posted 26 August 2013 - 12:14 AM

The other potential problem with doing an ice time/points analysis for some players is that it doesn't account for the decline in scoring some players get when they're playing with fourth line players. IIRC, Kovy in 2012 would get ice time pretty often with Carter and Bernier, or I should say, often enough that it would skew that figure.

 

Okay, great.  Does it account for why he's near the middle of the pack in the NHL instead of being closer to the top?  I don't think so.  Trim off all those minutes and goals (it can be done) and the result still isn't great.

 

 

Exactly even what?

 

Even in goals for/against, basically even in shots for/against, and with a 1000 PDO.


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#47 Colorado Rockies 1976

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Posted 26 August 2013 - 06:12 AM

Who cares, has no bearing on how valuable he is 9 years after he's picked

 

 

 

 

Like Daniel, you're not very good with numbers.  He played over 24 minutes per game in 2 seasons with NJ, and over 22 minutes in one season.

 

 

 

 

This has value, but not very much, because Kovalchuk just doesn't do a lot 5 on 5.  In Atlanta he and his line scored a ton and got scored on a ton.  In NJ his line didn't score that much and didn't get scored on that much.  Why is this valuable?  It's great if the guy were even above average 5 on 5, but he wasn't.

 

 

 

 

And yet neither the bulk goal scoring and goal scoring rate aren't top 2.

 

 

 

 

And he plays the most ice time.  You can't have it both ways.  The guy plays both ends of the PP, giant minutes at ES, and tended to be started in the offensive zone more than most forwards on the team - if he's not leading the team in points, something is hugely wrong. 

 

 

 

 

Kovalchuk over his career was not a good shootout player and the Devils should not have expected any value to come from him in the shootout.  But I'll agree that this was probably worth a huge amount in 2011-12.

 

 

 

 

And never in his career run a great one.  And be on the ice for a lot of shorthanded goals, which hurt his worth as a PP player.

 

 

 

 

And again, he played by far the most minutes of any forward.

 

 

 

 

Kovalchuk was fantastic as a penalty killer but he played 160 minutes on the PK and was seldom on the first unit.

 

 

 

 

Not one citation of shooting % or possession numbers in this post.  I can just go by goals - Kovalchuk was -7 in the last 6 years at 5 on 5 in non-empty net situations.  How is this a great player?   Show me the greatness.

 

Anyway, I'm being a bit rhetorical here because on the whole, Kovalchuk's cap hit to the Devils was around $19.8M and his worth was probably right around there, albeit a bit below - I had forgotten about the shootout success which was probably worth 1-2 points in the standings.  But if you think his value was way above that, you're just not seeing what Kovalchuk wasn't doing.  

 

SD, this pretty much sums up Kovy.  He was capable of great and dynamic moments, but wasn't really great overall.  In an odd way, if he hadn't suddenly become almost automatic in the shootout for a while, his shortcomings might have been brought up more.  His 2011-2012 numbers were definitely eye-friendly, but when picked apart, even that year isn't quite as good as it looked.   

 

I agree with Tri...overall the Devils got reasonably close to the value of Kovy's 1st three seasons (considering how these mega-deals can go, that's not bad), but I don't think they were going to get that kind of "almost" value in the seasons to come, which is why I'm not at all sorry that he's gone.  As for the original topic of this thread...I don't care about Kovy anymore, what he says, what he does...he's no longer a part of the Devils.  If he ever comes back to the NHL and the Devils play against him, I'll think about him then...but he simply doesn't exist to me as anything more than a past Devil.   


Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976, 26 August 2013 - 06:13 AM.

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#48 CarterforPresident

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Posted 26 August 2013 - 09:13 AM

Kovy glided to freaking much. That's one thing i won't miss at all.
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#49 Devilsfan118

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Posted 26 August 2013 - 09:44 AM

I wonder how his back's going to be when he's eligible to return to the NHL (aka, 5 years from now, assuming Lou hasn't gone completely soft and brings him back before then).  

 

I thought he lost a step after the playoffs two years ago - ya gotta wonder if back injuries like his ever fully heal.


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#50 Daniel

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Posted 26 August 2013 - 10:31 AM

I wonder how his back's going to be when he's eligible to return to the NHL (aka, 5 years from now, assuming Lou hasn't gone completely soft and brings him back before then).  

 

I thought he lost a step after the playoffs two years ago - ya gotta wonder if back injuries like his ever fully heal.

 

From what I've heard -- secondhand, but the original source is someone who ought to know, so take it for what it's worth -- was that his back injury in 2012 was a sciatic nerve issue.  I'm not a doctor, so I couldn't tell you if this is a degenerative back condition, similar to what Mario Lemieux had to the point that he couldn't tie his own skates, or if it eventually heals with time, like a separated sholder does.  As I seem to recall, it was revealed after the playoffs that, after game 1 of the Flyers series, he had a numbing agent injected, and played very well the rest of that series, and he played physically in the Rangers series, to the point that taking Del Zotto hard into the boards, freed up the puck for the Carter game winning goal in game 5.  Since I was at games 1 and 2 for the finals, it was hard for me to tell whether it looked like he was playing slow during those games, but you could definitely tell that he was playing at most at 60 percent by game 3.

 

From afar anyway, it didn't seem to affect his game last season. 


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#51 SterioDesign

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Posted 26 August 2013 - 11:29 AM

SD, this pretty much sums up Kovy.  He was capable of great and dynamic moments, but wasn't really great overall.  In an odd way, if he hadn't suddenly become almost automatic in the shootout for a while, his shortcomings might have been brought up more.  His 2011-2012 numbers were definitely eye-friendly, but when picked apart, even that year isn't quite as good as it looked.   

 

I agree with Tri...overall the Devils got reasonably close to the value of Kovy's 1st three seasons (considering how these mega-deals can go, that's not bad), but I don't think they were going to get that kind of "almost" value in the seasons to come, which is why I'm not at all sorry that he's gone.  As for the original topic of this thread...I don't care about Kovy anymore, what he says, what he does...he's no longer a part of the Devils.  If he ever comes back to the NHL and the Devils play against him, I'll think about him then...but he simply doesn't exist to me as anything more than a past Devil.   

 

that was not really the question, Tri never said how much he thought a player like that is worth cap wize... look around at all the other players with bigger cap hits than his and you'll see that his is really not bad (or was) wtv.

 

Obviously guys like Malkin are superior but is he REALLY worth like 3m MORE per year than Kovy ? Thats a fvcking lot of money


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#52 halfsharkalligatorhalfman

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Posted 26 August 2013 - 11:30 AM

Kovalchuk is going to come back to the NHL.  He won't care about the money, he'll just go to a great team, sign for cheap and chase the cup.

 

I know there are hard feelings for NJ fans, but I would very much want the team he choses to be my team.  Unless he really falls off he will still be able to contribute on the PP.  


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#53 SterioDesign

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Posted 26 August 2013 - 11:33 AM

Kovalchuk is going to come back to the NHL.  He won't care about the money, he'll just go to a great team, sign for cheap and chase the cup.

 

I know there are hard feelings for NJ fans, but I would very much want the team he choses to be my team.  Unless he really falls off he will still be able to contribute on the PP.  

 

thats what we thought Jagr would do... yet he just goes where the money is


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#54 Triumph

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Posted 26 August 2013 - 12:16 PM

Kovalchuk is going to come back to the NHL.  He won't care about the money, he'll just go to a great team, sign for cheap and chase the cup.

 

I know there are hard feelings for NJ fans, but I would very much want the team he choses to be my team.  Unless he really falls off he will still be able to contribute on the PP.  

 

I don't think this is true - I think the amount Kovalchuk makes is very important to him.  He had a contract holdout once in his career, signed a contract ruled illegal, and then signed another one for giant money.  He's getting paid a lot in Russia too.  I don't like to describe athletes as greedy, but I do think there is an element of status to being very well-paid and I think Kovalchuk enjoyed that status.

 

 

SD, this pretty much sums up Kovy.  He was capable of great and dynamic moments, but wasn't really great overall.  In an odd way, if he hadn't suddenly become almost automatic in the shootout for a while, his shortcomings might have been brought up more.  His 2011-2012 numbers were definitely eye-friendly, but when picked apart, even that year isn't quite as good as it looked.   

 

I agree with Tri...overall the Devils got reasonably close to the value of Kovy's 1st three seasons (considering how these mega-deals can go, that's not bad), but I don't think they were going to get that kind of "almost" value in the seasons to come, which is why I'm not at all sorry that he's gone.  As for the original topic of this thread...I don't care about Kovy anymore, what he says, what he does...he's no longer a part of the Devils.  If he ever comes back to the NHL and the Devils play against him, I'll think about him then...but he simply doesn't exist to me as anything more than a past Devil.   

 

The idea of a massive front-loaded deal is that you get enormous value out of the first few seasons.  Getting neutral value out of it isn't a good deal because the deal will turn sour in its later years.


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#55 halfsharkalligatorhalfman

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Posted 26 August 2013 - 12:57 PM

thats what we thought Jagr would do... yet he just goes where the money is

 

Gambling addiction ain't cheap... (oh wait I just rememebered Jagr's a Devil now whoops... :giggle: ).  Also I think Jagr just wants to play primarily and doesn't care about the cup anymore.  He'll go where the opportunity is to play on the top two lines.  

 

 

I don't think this is true - I think the amount Kovalchuk makes is very important to him.  He had a contract holdout once in his career, signed a contract ruled illegal, and then signed another one for giant money.  He's getting paid a lot in Russia too.  I don't like to describe athletes as greedy, but I do think there is an element of status to being very well-paid and I think Kovalchuk enjoyed that status.

 

 

I don't think I have much insight into Kovy's psychology, and maybe Kovy does love the KHL because he loves being "the man" and having that status and only sees a big contract as a way to keep that status.  But imo money isn't the primary motivator for his decisions.  He turned down a $100 million dollar contract from Atlanta for example.  The reason Kovy took so long to sign in NJ was (imo) because he (and his family) really wanted to go to LA but the money difference was just too astronomical to pass up.  He doesn't seem to me to be a paper chaser, and I see him as being even less of one after making massive money for four years in Russia.


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#56 Triumph

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Posted 26 August 2013 - 03:24 PM

I don't think I have much insight into Kovy's psychology, and maybe Kovy does love the KHL because he loves being "the man" and having that status and only sees a big contract as a way to keep that status.  But imo money isn't the primary motivator for his decisions.  He turned down a $100 million dollar contract from Atlanta for example.  The reason Kovy took so long to sign in NJ was (imo) because he (and his family) really wanted to go to LA but the money difference was just too astronomical to pass up.  He doesn't seem to me to be a paper chaser, and I see him as being even less of one after making massive money for four years in Russia.

 

He said the team he wanted to win in the playoffs was a big market team so he would get more money back from escrow.  And yes, he passed on money from Atlanta, but with the hope that he would get that or more in free agency.  I'd be very surprised if he came back to the NHL for anything less than his perceived market value (which at that time will probably be around $8M/year)


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#57 Daniel

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Posted 26 August 2013 - 03:31 PM

He said the team he wanted to win in the playoffs was a big market team so he would get more money back from escrow.  And yes, he passed on money from Atlanta, but with the hope that he would get that or more in free agency.  I'd be very surprised if he came back to the NHL for anything less than his perceived market value (which at that time will probably be around $8M/year)

 

Not true, or at least what he said was that he was aware of the possibility that Atlanta would relocate. 


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#58 NJDevs4978

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Posted 26 August 2013 - 03:34 PM

Oh I think Kovalchuk absolutely believed he would get multiple $100 million offers in FA.  That's why the KHL became a real threat when he only got 'one' $100 million offer and he had to get so much of that money in the first ten years of the deal.


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#59 msweet

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Posted 26 August 2013 - 03:35 PM

Kovy? Who's that?

 

Oh I see, some dude who plays in the KHL... you can't win the Stanley Cup there so his goal is unlikely to be achieved.


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#60 Daniel

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Posted 26 August 2013 - 03:55 PM

Oh I think Kovalchuk absolutely believed he would get multiple $100 million offers in FA.  That's why the KHL became a real threat when he only got 'one' $100 million offer and he had to get so much of that money in the first ten years of the deal.

 

If the reports are to be believed, he apparently got something like that from the Isles. 


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