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NJDevs Fantasy Football 2013 Smack Talk


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#141 NJDevs4978

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Posted 15 November 2013 - 11:23 AM

It's to the point where a Richardson for Andre Ellington and Riley Cooper trade actually looks ridiculously one-sided for the guy getting Ellington and Cooper (yes this deal is actually happening in my other league, this week)...a month ago it would have been laughed out of the room the other way around.


Edited by NJDevs4978, 15 November 2013 - 11:23 AM.

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#142 redruM

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Posted 15 November 2013 - 11:44 AM

And some laughed at me for taking Lynch #1...


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#143 NJDevs4978

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Posted 15 November 2013 - 11:59 AM

Not me lol...I was a little wary about Foster's growing injury concerns.  QB was the only other way you could have conceivably gone with that pick, at that point it was just about philosophy.  If I'd been that smart I'd have picked Peyton or Brees instead of Rodgers at #3, but at least Rodgers was still infinitely better than my RB choice (Rice) would have been had I gone that way.


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"The Devils have high standards, that's the difference. We have a standard to live up to every year, and a couple of teams in our area don't have the standards we do." - Pat Burns

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-NHL record for most home wins in the playoffs - 12-1 in '03

#144 MantaRay

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Posted 15 November 2013 - 01:27 PM

And some laughed at me for taking Lynch #1...

 

Who???  In this league???


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#145 VivaLaFlamme

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Posted 15 November 2013 - 03:21 PM

My lack of a strong #2 RB doomed me this year. Bush did alot better than I thought he would, but yeah


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#146 CRASHER

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Posted 15 November 2013 - 06:29 PM

And some laughed at me for taking Lynch #1...

 

The only case they'd have is leaving McCoy on the board he's been awesome this year too


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#147 NJDevs4978

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Posted 17 November 2013 - 04:21 PM

What a fitting end of my season...losing to a last-place team and benching a grumpy, surly Big Ben one of the two weeks he decides to go off and start slinging it around again.  Literally nothing I've done has been right this year since the draft, too patient when I should be more proactive and vice-versa.  I need a LONG vacation from fantasy football.

 

Of course I play Ray Rice in BOTH my leagues when he finally goes off.  Of course Gates finally scores a TD when I finally bench him here and am playing against him in my other league.


Edited by NJDevs4978, 17 November 2013 - 04:35 PM.

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"The Devils have high standards, that's the difference. We have a standard to live up to every year, and a couple of teams in our area don't have the standards we do." - Pat Burns

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#148 aylbert

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Posted 17 November 2013 - 08:04 PM

Who???  In this league???

 

Me.   The conventional picks for 1st overall (After discounting who was taken RB wise, would have been Foster--McCoy-Rice)   I didn't mock the round, just the #1 overall.    (ie, I would have thought you could trade down a lil bit in the 1st and still grab him... I was promptly told then, and now, I was wrong :)  )

Then again, my starting RBs were complete busts; with only Fred Jackson being of any significant value   (Richardson-Martin-Mathews-FJackson); then again, my WR suck too outside of Decker (Decker-Williams-TAustin-Britt-MAustin.   Good thing I usually do well with midseason waivers.


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#149 redruM

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Posted 18 November 2013 - 08:04 AM

2 weeks in a row w/ highest pt total ( i think Yahoo has me a 0.00 right now.) we are about 1 month too early for this...


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Posted 18 November 2013 - 09:12 AM

Yeah Yahoo has it glitched that we're both at 0.00 for some reason but StatTracker has the correct score.

 

This Monday night game is huge for DR.  If he can beat Ayl tonight he puts himself squarely in the playoff conversation with the morass of 6-5 teams.  If he doesn't, he looks like a long shot, as he's a game back with inferior scoring tiebreakers. 


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#151 MantaRay

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Posted 18 November 2013 - 11:58 AM

Me.   The conventional picks for 1st overall (After discounting who was taken RB wise, would have been Foster--McCoy-Rice)   I didn't mock the round, just the #1 overall.    (ie, I would have thought you could trade down a lil bit in the 1st and still grab him... I was promptly told then, and now, I was wrong :)  )

Then again, my starting RBs were complete busts; with only Fred Jackson being of any significant value   (Richardson-Martin-Mathews-FJackson); then again, my WR suck too outside of Decker (Decker-Williams-TAustin-Britt-MAustin.   Good thing I usually do well with midseason waivers.

 

Really?  granted things change dramatically during the timing of our draft, but there was no way Foster was a #1 pick this year (he was losing feeling in his legs during training camp and didn't participate most of it)  and Rice...don't get me started as to why he wasn't going in the first round. 

 

Lynch, Charles and AP were the only true #1's based on the lack of time share/ situational play and good OL.

 

It's rounds 4+ that I got wrong.


Edited by MantaRay, 18 November 2013 - 11:59 AM.

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#152 redruM

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Posted 19 November 2013 - 08:17 AM

Finally Swamps is no longer the pts leader, it was getting silly watching a team under 500 leading the league in pts....


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Posted 19 November 2013 - 09:49 AM

Really?  granted things change dramatically during the timing of our draft, but there was no way Foster was a #1 pick this year (he was losing feeling in his legs during training camp and didn't participate most of it)  and Rice...don't get me started as to why he wasn't going in the first round. 

 

Lynch, Charles and AP were the only true #1's based on the lack of time share/ situational play and good OL.

 

It's rounds 4+ that I got wrong.

 

I call BS on some of this.

 

There's no way you could know that Rice would regress this badly...even if regression was planned for, he's gone completely down the tubes in the most unexpected way possible (possibly due to an in-season injury).  He should have been getting good passing down work even if his running regressed.  Coming into the season, he was still a 1st round pick based on at least on reputation, volume, and the dearth of other options available. 

 

And based on the keeper list, I could argue that LeSean McCoy was a possible #1 overall.  He was projected for a massive bump in workload.

 

That said...two weeks till playoff time, and we have, essentially, 8 teams for 6 slots.  In the interesting column for the season's end:

 

-VALUE clinches playoffs and bye with one win in the next two (Masked, Manta). 

-Dynamo essentially clinches playoffs and a bye with a win vs Manta, since his scoring has him winning all ties at this point unless Iced Z outscores him by 70 over the next two weeks (or Value outscores him by 20 over the same two weeks, though that tiebreaker is only significant if Value loses twice and Dynamo loses once and wins once).

-Iced Z and Wack MCs are the scoring leaders of the pack of 6-5's, so the loser of that battle in Week 12 will still have a significant playoff advantage going into Week 13 and the winner is all but assured a playoff spot unless either team goes into the scoring toilet.

-If MantaRavens makes the playoffs, they'll have earned it, going through both Dynamo and Value in consecutive weeks.  Wack MC's also has to go through Dynamo and Iced Z, not an easy schedule. 

-Conversely, DR has the easiest schedule by opponents' record (Swamps and West Side), although...

-Swamps, who is second in the league in scoring, could prove to be a significant spoiler vs either DR or Crack o' 10.


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#154 NJDevs4978

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Posted 19 November 2013 - 10:10 AM

Literally nobody was arguing McCoy as the #1 overall at the time coming off a subpar year last season, in fact he went mid-1st here even with the keepers.
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-NHL record for most home wins in the playoffs - 12-1 in '03

#155 MantaRay

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Posted 19 November 2013 - 01:34 PM

I call BS on some of this.

 

There's no way you could know that Rice would regress this badly...even if regression was planned for, he's gone completely down the tubes in the most unexpected way possible (possibly due to an in-season injury).  He should have been getting good passing down work even if his running regressed.  Coming into the season, he was still a 1st round pick based on at least on reputation, volume, and the dearth of other options available. 

 

 

You can call whatever you want Al.  YES, I knew Rice would regress: I am a Raven fan.   The second we traded Boldin, we were a below .500 team which would be easy to defend against.  Teams would stack the line against our running game, in addition Bernard Pierce looked like he was the better RB going into the season.   So, yes, I didn't have my own RB in my top 15 backs.    The only player I drafted from the Ravens was our kicker, knowing we could not score TD's.


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#156 NJDevs4978

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Posted 19 November 2013 - 06:43 PM

Finally Swamps is no longer the pts leader, it was getting silly watching a team under 500 leading the league in pts....

 

How do you think I feel about being 4-7 with that point total? :rant:

 

It was actually a pretty significant point lead over everyone (sans VALUE) until I lost Rodgers and then cratered this week.  Hardly matters at this point since winning tiebreakers aren't going to do me much good anyway unless 'three' 6-5 teams somehow lose out and I win two straight.


I didn't just pad it with a couple good weeks though, I had consistently high totals for the most part.  Guess this season is what I get for complaining about the playoff losses, at least I made it all those other seasons :P

 

 

You can call whatever you want Al.  YES, I knew Rice would regress: I am a Raven fan.   The second we traded Boldin, we were a below .500 team which would be easy to defend against.  Teams would stack the line against our running game, in addition Bernard Pierce looked like he was the better RB going into the season.   So, yes, I didn't have my own RB in my top 15 backs.    The only player I drafted from the Ravens was our kicker, knowing we could not score TD's.

 

Well we all had ones we hit and missed on during the draft.  I was perhaps most wrong about Clown's team, I thought it was going to be really good but it's been a disaster.  Having Roddy hurt, Spiller bomb and most of his backfield hurt/inconsistent didn't help.  Plus a couple guys I was mad about getting jacked over during the draft (Bowe, Mendenhall, even the Bears D) turned out not to have good seasons anyway.  

 

As usual my early-round WR picks bombed, I want to ban myself from picking WR's till the 7th round next year (where I got DeSean), except there's really not much else worthy of being picked before then since the RB's get scooped up by round 5 and you're not picking backup QB's then unless you want to get goofy.  Plus at this point Julius Thomas might wind up being my keeper in the 14th round so I won't be needing an early-round TE if that's the case.  DeSean (round 7) and Moreno (round 10) are my other current keeper options but I doubt Moreno repeats this season.  They were probably my best calls of this year though.


Edited by NJDevs4978, 19 November 2013 - 07:20 PM.

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Posted 20 November 2013 - 11:49 AM

You can call whatever you want Al.  YES, I knew Rice would regress: I am a Raven fan.   The second we traded Boldin, we were a below .500 team which would be easy to defend against.  Teams would stack the line against our running game, in addition Bernard Pierce looked like he was the better RB going into the season.   So, yes, I didn't have my own RB in my top 15 backs.    The only player I drafted from the Ravens was our kicker, knowing we could not score TD's.

 

Right, the regression isn't what I was taking issue with.  It's the degree of regression.  Even planning for regression in production, Rice, as of draft month, would still qualify as a starting RB for fantasy, and running backs from sub-500 teams can be fantasy productive (see Peterson, Adrian).  That his production has fallen so far off a cliff is something I'm not sure anyone could have seen coming, even the most gloomy prognosticator of doom. 

 

Here's where I show someone else's work in support.  From the article:

 

Here's the Rice stat that really floors me, making me skeptical about his ability to dent any defense: On 43 carries this season against nickel packages, Ray is averaging just 2.1 yards. Two-point-one. (That's per PFF's Mike Clay, so you know it's good.) We obviously expect rushing production to improve, not decline, when extra DBs are on the field. Last year, Rice picked up 4.6 YPC versus nickel. If you'd assumed that his struggles this season were merely a byproduct of extra defensive attention, think again. The hip injury could very well be the culprit here, but, if that's the case, there's no reason to think he'll get better without rest and/or maintenance.

 

 

To give a baseline, this article summarizes that league-average for runs against nickel defenses over the last five years is 4.6 YPC. 

 

Now, while regression was to be expected with a younger, less-experienced core of receivers shifting defensive focus more towards the run as well as the retirement of Matt Birk (and the potential regression of the rest of the OL), even the most negative of prognosticators would have pegged Rice for more along the lines of 3.4 YPC (a full yard drop off) in a bad year, or at least 6 YPR.  That'd still be bad, but considering the landscape of running backs around the league that get significant reps, it's still a first or second round RB2 for fantasy purposes. 


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#158 redruM

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Posted 20 November 2013 - 12:19 PM

 

How do you think I feel about being 4-7 with that point total? :rant:

 

It was actually a pretty significant point lead over everyone (sans VALUE) until I lost Rodgers and then cratered this week.  Hardly matters at this point since winning tiebreakers aren't going to do me much good anyway unless 'three' 6-5 teams somehow lose out and I win two straight.


I didn't just pad it with a couple good weeks though, I had consistently high totals for the most part.  Guess this season is what I get for complaining about the playoff losses, at least I made it all those other seasons :P

 

 

 

Well we all had ones we hit and missed on during the draft.  I was perhaps most wrong about Clown's team, I thought it was going to be really good but it's been a disaster.  Having Roddy hurt, Spiller bomb and most of his backfield hurt/inconsistent didn't help.  Plus a couple guys I was mad about getting jacked over during the draft (Bowe, Mendenhall, even the Bears D) turned out not to have good seasons anyway.  

 

As usual my early-round WR picks bombed, I want to ban myself from picking WR's till the 7th round next year (where I got DeSean), except there's really not much else worthy of being picked before then since the RB's get scooped up by round 5 and you're not picking backup QB's then unless you want to get goofy.  Plus at this point Julius Thomas might wind up being my keeper in the 14th round so I won't be needing an early-round TE if that's the case.  DeSean (round 7) and Moreno (round 10) are my other current keeper options but I doubt Moreno repeats this season.  They were probably my best calls of this year though.

 

At this point I'm just keeping my figers crossed that none of my players are injured, Over the last 2 years I have been very lucky with the injuries....


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Posted 20 November 2013 - 04:53 PM

Right, the regression isn't what I was taking issue with.  It's the degree of regression.  Even planning for regression in production, Rice, as of draft month, would still qualify as a starting RB for fantasy, and running backs from sub-500 teams can be fantasy productive (see Peterson, Adrian).  That his production has fallen so far off a cliff is something I'm not sure anyone could have seen coming, even the most gloomy prognosticator of doom. 

 

Here's where I show someone else's work in support.  From the article:

 

 

To give a baseline, this article summarizes that league-average for runs against nickel defenses over the last five years is 4.6 YPC. 

 

Now, while regression was to be expected with a younger, less-experienced core of receivers shifting defensive focus more towards the run as well as the retirement of Matt Birk (and the potential regression of the rest of the OL), even the most negative of prognosticators would have pegged Rice for more along the lines of 3.4 YPC (a full yard drop off) in a bad year, or at least 6 YPR.  That'd still be bad, but considering the landscape of running backs around the league that get significant reps, it's still a first or second round RB2 for fantasy purposes. 

 

I'm quoting myself to add something I didn't think of previously to this, from Bill Barnwell's article about the decline of the RB:

 

 

The Ravens also traded away the energetic run blocking of Anquan Boldin, but the other guy who has been missing from their attack is a player they actually retained: Vonta Leach. Baltimore's fullback was released during the offseason before eventually re-signing with the team, but they've been hesitant to use him as a regular player. In 2012, Leach wasn't an every-down player, but he did get on the field for 42 percent of Baltimore's offensive snaps. This year, Leach has played just 25 percent of the offensive snaps. You might figure that his role is increasing because of Baltimore's struggles with the run, but he's actually seeing the field less and less; Leach has played on just 31 of the team's 226 offensive snaps over the past three weeks, a mere 14 percent. Given how bad the running game was before the Bears game, it seems like it might be time to give Leach the role he previously enjoyed in the offense and see if that pushes things forward.

 

Astounding that a team that wants the running game to flourish to set up the pass won't put one of their best run-blockers on the field.  That's on coaching philosophy.


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#160 aylbert

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 09:59 AM

An ugly, ugly win...   but a most needed win, by the Sworn D.

Bring it on MF.


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