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The Three Tests For Peter DeBoer


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#41 Triumph

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Posted 03 October 2013 - 10:52 AM

Devils went 12-4 in the shootout that year.  If one wants to argue that shootouts are based 100% on luck, then I guess one could rule that the Devils could have just as easily gone 4-12 in such games...but they had a guy who had suddenly become an automatic in Kovy, and a couple of other guys who had always been very good in shootouts in Parise and Elias.  And Brodeur has always played well in them too, so I can't really make a case for the Devils being much worse than 8-8 in the shootout that year with bad luck.  And the teams behind them finished 10 points back.  So even with a little worse luck, Devils probably still would've been sixth. 

 

I've pointed it out before, but over Brodeur's last 50 or so games (regular season and playoffs combined) in 2011-12, he put up a save% in the low .920s.  Before that stretch, he was pretty shaky...November (.886), December (.899) and January (.897) were all pretty bad...compare that with January (.924), March/April (.921) and the playoffs (.917...was .922 until that Game 6 SC Finals trainwreck game).  He was really two goalies that year...one that looked like he might be finished, and one that suddenly had something left...seemingly out of nowhere.  

 

I mean, this is sort of a silly analysis - the Devils lost Parise, who wasn't that good in the shootout in 2011-12, and they went 2-7 last year.  It can happen to anyone.

 

Something that has always fascinated, or maybe irratated, me about Zidlicky and his relationship with Devils fans is that for years all everyone wanted the Devils to trade for was a puck-moving, offensive-minded defenseman, now that we finally have one, one that does his job well and provides a lot of offense from the backend, people hate him and question his style of play. He's a fvcking PMD people, you get what you ask for and as far as PMD's go, he's a damn good one.

 

I loathe the term PMD but yes, this was inevitable.  What about that slick move against the Flyers the other night?  Okay - that was preseason.  How about this one?    - Andy Greene could maybe do something like this.  How about this one from last year?  http://www.youtube.c...h?v=Fx-FauQ_aN4

 

He drives play forward.  Yes, there are defensive gaffes.  Yes, sometimes he's overaggressive.  He's willing to shoot the puck and can pass it at the point too.

 

BehindTheNet has him on the ice for 3 short handed goals last year 5 v 4, 25 over the last 6 years:  http://www.behindthe... 33 34 45 46 63


Edited by Triumph, 03 October 2013 - 10:56 AM.

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#42 Pepperkorn

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Posted 03 October 2013 - 11:07 AM

Trauma only possible conclusion to be drawn from these observations regarding DeBoer's coaching.

 

Basically it says he coaches on a strictly individual basis, in a complete vacuum.

 

So really he just has to do one thing.  Get a better sense of the big picture and not assume if he's got a bunch of character guys working at their maximum in their current given circumstances the team will be winners.

 

It's nice to have old projects -- but when they get that old, they're supposed to have reached a certain point.  Giving old plodding but maybe success projects ice time over exciting developing talent is ... well, I find it hard to see the winning recipes there.

 

With that said -- I'm not sure it's the case.  We have to see how this team hits the season.  I can't guess based on the pre-season because I'd have sent different players packing. 

 

I will say: Refusing to pay an NHL salary in the AHL is playing your obstacle, not going for your objective.   Yes -- I can see some fiscal arguments you can attach to different situations - as in not over paying for a stud.  BUT it's not the same as paying extra to get a liability off your revenue generating team.  If you have a weak player on your major revenue generator - you won't win as much or as surely, you therefore won't sell tickets.  If you send him down, BOTH teams improve therefore revenue will go up for BOTH teams.  I'm just saying.  The argument is BS


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#43 Colorado Rockies 1976

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Posted 03 October 2013 - 11:13 AM

I mean, this is sort of a silly analysis - the Devils lost Parise, who wasn't that good in the shootout in 2011-12, and they went 2-7 last year.  It can happen to anyone.

 

Parise was for 8-for-16 in 2011-12...50%.  (Kovy was a ridiculous 11-for-14 and Elias was 6-for-12...suffice it to say when your top three shooters go 25-for-42 in the shootout, you're going to win a lot of them.) 

 

So 8-for-16 is not that good...REALLY?!  At least know what the fvck you're talking about before going into full-on "I know all" mode next time. 


Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976, 03 October 2013 - 12:03 PM.

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THE NHL MUST LOVE THE DEVILS - from who else? A RANGER fan!
[Mark Messier]: A big, bald attention whore with a stupid Easter Island-lookin face. - from who else? DaneykoIsGod!

Even when Marty comes back maybe Larry should put Clemmensen to be on the goal during the shootouts.
Can the coach do that ? Switch the goalies 5 seconds to go in overtime?
- Most priceless quote ever posted on a message board.

Martin Brodeur: THE MOST ALL-TIME WINS!, 12 straight seasons of 30+ wins, 3 Stanley Cups, 4 Vezina Trophies, and zero respect from too many so-called Devils "fans" who are either too young or too bandwagon to remember the much darker days of Sean Burke, Craig Billington, Bob Sauve, Alain Chevrier, and the talented but overwhelmed Chico Resch, among many others.

It's easy to support a great player when he's playing at his very best. It takes a true fan to support that same player during those rare moments and stretches when he's not. Babe Ruth went 0-4 some games, and sometimes Wayne Gretzky was held pointless. There may be such a thing as greatness, but no such thing as absolute perfection every single night.

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#44 NLinfante

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Posted 03 October 2013 - 11:18 AM

CR and Tri, remember not to take your helmets off or you're gonna get an extra 2 minutes.


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#45 Colorado Rockies 1976

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Posted 03 October 2013 - 11:23 AM

CR and Tri, remember not to take your helmets off or you're gonna get an extra 2 minutes.

 

Lol, admittedly that was funny.


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THE NHL MUST LOVE THE DEVILS - from who else? A RANGER fan!
[Mark Messier]: A big, bald attention whore with a stupid Easter Island-lookin face. - from who else? DaneykoIsGod!

Even when Marty comes back maybe Larry should put Clemmensen to be on the goal during the shootouts.
Can the coach do that ? Switch the goalies 5 seconds to go in overtime?
- Most priceless quote ever posted on a message board.

Martin Brodeur: THE MOST ALL-TIME WINS!, 12 straight seasons of 30+ wins, 3 Stanley Cups, 4 Vezina Trophies, and zero respect from too many so-called Devils "fans" who are either too young or too bandwagon to remember the much darker days of Sean Burke, Craig Billington, Bob Sauve, Alain Chevrier, and the talented but overwhelmed Chico Resch, among many others.

It's easy to support a great player when he's playing at his very best. It takes a true fan to support that same player during those rare moments and stretches when he's not. Babe Ruth went 0-4 some games, and sometimes Wayne Gretzky was held pointless. There may be such a thing as greatness, but no such thing as absolute perfection every single night.

#30 FOREVER!

20 out of 1,946 njdevs.com members agree: CR1976 is the Most Knowledgable Poster of 2008! Victory is mine...oh yes, victory is mine!

#46 NJCroMag

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Posted 03 October 2013 - 11:27 AM

Deboer?  Taking tests?

 

I wanna see the guy who wouldn't take the test!

 

[storms off, channeling inner Kurt Russell]


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#47 Triumph

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Posted 03 October 2013 - 11:34 AM

Parise was for 8-for-16 in 2011-12...50%.  (Kovy was a ridiculous 11-for-14 and Elias was 6-for-12...suffice it to say when you're top three shooters go 25-for-42 in the shootout, you're going to win a lot of them.) 

 

So 8-for-16 is not that good...REALLY?!  At least know what the fvck you're talking about before going into full-on "I know all" mode next time. 

 

Fair - I remember some on the board complaining about how he was predictable in the shootout, but I should've remembered the people who were doing it.  That doesn't change my central point which is that the shootout is an incredibly high variance contest.  The Tampa goalies in 2006-07 had a higher save percentage in the shootout than in all situations.  Kovalchuk was a lifetime awful shooter, he blows up in 2011-12, he's awful in 2012-13.  etc.


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#48 Colorado Rockies 1976

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Posted 03 October 2013 - 12:02 PM

Fair - I remember some on the board complaining about how he was predictable in the shootout, but I should've remembered the people who were doing it.  That doesn't change my central point which is that the shootout is an incredibly high variance contest.  The Tampa goalies in 2006-07 had a higher save percentage in the shootout than in all situations.  Kovalchuk was a lifetime awful shooter, he blows up in 2011-12, he's awful in 2012-13.  etc.

 

Kovy wasn't really awful in 2012-13...the sample size was pretty puny (he went 2-for-6).  But yeah, he was definitely nothing special in the SO before 11-12.

 

Kovy's never seeming to miss in the shootout made the fans' standards for every Devil rather silly.  I think Parise missed a few in a row, and some fans wanted him benched.  It was actually people saying that that prompted me to start the whole "Devils really are awesome in shootouts" thread.  It was getting to the point where the Devils weren't allowed to lose one without a lot of complaining.  Last year was the Devils' first bad year since the SO's implementation. 

 

Yes, there is variance, but there are also some guys who have been consistently good in it (like Parise...32 shootout goals on 69 shots for his career), and some goalies as well (like Lundqvist).  The randomness of the event for each team stems from the fact that a GM is never going to target goalies and/or shooters who are consistently proficient in it, and bring them onto his team for that reason.  You just hope that your best players happen to be strong in them (BTW, Lundqvist is at .763 in save% for his career in SOs, Brodeur is at .706.  Schneider?  Just .628.)  


Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976, 03 October 2013 - 12:02 PM.

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THE NHL MUST LOVE THE DEVILS - from who else? A RANGER fan!
[Mark Messier]: A big, bald attention whore with a stupid Easter Island-lookin face. - from who else? DaneykoIsGod!

Even when Marty comes back maybe Larry should put Clemmensen to be on the goal during the shootouts.
Can the coach do that ? Switch the goalies 5 seconds to go in overtime?
- Most priceless quote ever posted on a message board.

Martin Brodeur: THE MOST ALL-TIME WINS!, 12 straight seasons of 30+ wins, 3 Stanley Cups, 4 Vezina Trophies, and zero respect from too many so-called Devils "fans" who are either too young or too bandwagon to remember the much darker days of Sean Burke, Craig Billington, Bob Sauve, Alain Chevrier, and the talented but overwhelmed Chico Resch, among many others.

It's easy to support a great player when he's playing at his very best. It takes a true fan to support that same player during those rare moments and stretches when he's not. Babe Ruth went 0-4 some games, and sometimes Wayne Gretzky was held pointless. There may be such a thing as greatness, but no such thing as absolute perfection every single night.

#30 FOREVER!

20 out of 1,946 njdevs.com members agree: CR1976 is the Most Knowledgable Poster of 2008! Victory is mine...oh yes, victory is mine!

#49 nessus

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Posted 03 October 2013 - 12:30 PM

Well, not even game 1 and PDB is already looking like he may fail #3.


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#50 Mike Brown

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Posted 03 October 2013 - 09:00 PM

There's no reason at all Fayne shouldn't play.  The guy is good.


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#51 lazer

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Posted 03 October 2013 - 10:48 PM

doesnt kovy doing well in the SO prove how lucky the devils were in 11-12?

 

i think it was motivation spurred by big contracts and potential bankruptcy = chemistry =

 

luck = confidence;

 

too bad the luck ran out


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#52 Mike Brown

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Posted 04 October 2013 - 05:28 AM

doesnt kovy doing well in the SO prove how lucky the devils were in 11-12?

 

i think it was motivation spurred by big contracts and potential bankruptcy = chemistry =

 

luck = confidence;

 

too bad the luck ran out

 

The Devils were unlucky last year.  You don't dominate in puck possession like they did and not make the playoffs.  Well the Devils did just that.


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#53 2ELIAS6

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Posted 04 October 2013 - 08:32 AM

The Devils were unlucky last year. You don't dominate in puck possession like they did and not make the playoffs. Well the Devils did just that.

i cant stand how everyone constantly blames the devils lack of success last year on "luck" they were more possesive over the puck then the other team the majority of the time.. possibly.. but you can take as many shots on the opposition as you want if your just slinging a bunch of sh!t crappy easy to stop shots at a goalie doesnt matter if you take 95 shots if theyre sucky slob lob shots theyre obviously not going to take a whole ton of effort to stop. That was why the team sucked at scoring. EXAMPLE: take clarkson was ripping as many shots as possible on net last year.. problem was none of them were going in because they were all sh!tty shots sh!tty unskilled shots that he was just throwing at the goaltender. and for his situation probably taking so many shots on goal to try to make himself more appealing on the market being his free agency he wanted to have higher numbers for shots on goal. Long story short.. i can take 300 shots on brodeur and im sure he could stop every single one of them.. doesnt mean i have no luck means i fvcking suck and dont have the skill to put one past him.

Edited by Sik02gt, 04 October 2013 - 08:33 AM.

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#54 Mike Brown

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Posted 04 October 2013 - 11:31 AM

i cant stand how everyone constantly blames the devils lack of success last year on "luck" they were more possesive over the puck then the other team the majority of the time.. possibly.. but you can take as many shots on the opposition as you want if your just slinging a bunch of sh!t crappy easy to stop shots at a goalie doesnt matter if you take 95 shots if theyre sucky slob lob shots theyre obviously not going to take a whole ton of effort to stop. That was why the team sucked at scoring. EXAMPLE: take clarkson was ripping as many shots as possible on net last year.. problem was none of them were going in because they were all sh!tty shots sh!tty unskilled shots that he was just throwing at the goaltender. and for his situation probably taking so many shots on goal to try to make himself more appealing on the market being his free agency he wanted to have higher numbers for shots on goal. Long story short.. i can take 300 shots on brodeur and im sure he could stop every single one of them.. doesnt mean i have no luck means i fvcking suck and dont have the skill to put one past him.

 

Well not all of the scoring chances last year were perimeter shots.  I hate when people blame lack of luck too, but I can't think of any other way to put it.


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#55 ATLL765

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Posted 04 October 2013 - 11:39 AM

i cant stand how everyone constantly blames the devils lack of success last year on "luck" they were more possesive over the puck then the other team the majority of the time.. possibly.. but you can take as many shots on the opposition as you want if your just slinging a bunch of sh!t crappy easy to stop shots at a goalie doesnt matter if you take 95 shots if theyre sucky slob lob shots theyre obviously not going to take a whole ton of effort to stop. That was why the team sucked at scoring. EXAMPLE: take clarkson was ripping as many shots as possible on net last year.. problem was none of them were going in because they were all sh!tty shots sh!tty unskilled shots that he was just throwing at the goaltender. and for his situation probably taking so many shots on goal to try to make himself more appealing on the market being his free agency he wanted to have higher numbers for shots on goal. Long story short.. i can take 300 shots on brodeur and im sure he could stop every single one of them.. doesnt mean i have no luck means i fvcking suck and dont have the skill to put one past him.

C'mon, be real. Of course you won't score on 300 shots, did you train all your life for that? I doubt it. These guys did and they all have NHL quality shots. They didn't all of a sudden become terrible at scoring. The team possessed the puck more than their opponents, generally got more shots. This is what wins hockey games. It's far more likely that you score when you possess the puck than when you don't.

And Clarkson always had taken shots from wherever, that's part of his game, lots of shots. Not tons of quality, but lots of shots. So I'm not sure why you're blaming him for doing his job.


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#56 2ELIAS6

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Posted 04 October 2013 - 12:27 PM

C'mon, be real. Of course you won't score on 300 shots, did you train all your life for that? I doubt it. These guys did and they all have NHL quality shots. They didn't all of a sudden become terrible at scoring. The team possessed the puck more than their opponents, generally got more shots. This is what wins hockey games. It's far more likely that you score when you possess the puck than when you don't.
And Clarkson always had taken shots from wherever, that's part of his game, lots of shots. Not tons of quality, but lots of shots. So I'm not sure why you're blaming him for doing his job.

possession of the puck is not what wins games.. or the team would have been winning games.. putting the puck in the back of the net more times then the opposition is what wins games... last years team couldnt figure out how to do that so clearly with the crappy team that the devils had on the ice there was a lack of talent half the team was all fourth liners or ahl quality players... the team couldnt win one game without kovalchuk on the ice.. dont make excuses for them it was clearly a lack of talent. No matter how hard they tried most nights they couldnt figure out how to walk away with a win. If they scored 2 goals moose let in 3.. LOL major lack of talent last year the team down right sucked if you dont realize that im sorry your in denial.
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#57 Mike Brown

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Posted 04 October 2013 - 01:07 PM

possession of the puck is not what wins games.. or the team would have been winning games.. putting the puck in the back of the net more times then the opposition is what wins games... last years team couldnt figure out how to do that so clearly with the crappy team that the devils had on the ice there was a lack of talent half the team was all fourth liners or ahl quality players... the team couldnt win one game without kovalchuk on the ice.. dont make excuses for them it was clearly a lack of talent. No matter how hard they tried most nights they couldnt figure out how to walk away with a win. If they scored 2 goals moose let in 3.. LOL major lack of talent last year the team down right sucked if you dont realize that im sorry your in denial.

 

Last year the Devils were in their attacking zone for like the majority of the game.  Teams don't let the opposition control the puck in their own end for majority of the game.  I'm not saying the Devils were good last year, but that team would have made the playoffs if they knew how to finish their chances.


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#58 ATLL765

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Posted 04 October 2013 - 02:04 PM

possession of the puck is not what wins games.. or the team would have been winning games.. putting the puck in the back of the net more times then the opposition is what wins games... last years team couldnt figure out how to do that so clearly with the crappy team that the devils had on the ice there was a lack of talent half the team was all fourth liners or ahl quality players... the team couldnt win one game without kovalchuk on the ice.. dont make excuses for them it was clearly a lack of talent. No matter how hard they tried most nights they couldnt figure out how to walk away with a win. If they scored 2 goals moose let in 3.. LOL major lack of talent last year the team down right sucked if you dont realize that im sorry your in denial.

No one's saying the Devils didn't lack a bit of top end talent, but to say they all sucked is patently false. The team could not score last year, but nothing truly wins games, things can only make it more likely that you'll win. Possessing the puck more and outshooting opponents is a great way to make it more likely that you'll score goals and win.

You, in particular, pointed out Clarkson, who basically scored at the same pace last year as he did in the 2011-12 season, despite his drop off in performance late in the year. The team played the system well, we just lacked a bit of luck and maybe a top 6 player or two to give us more of a scoring touch.

We signed Ryder, Clowe, Brunner and Jagr to replace the lost scoring though and together, they can probably put up as many points as Kovy and Clarkson would have, maybe even a few more. What we need to be a better team than last year is for Zajac and Henrique to have good years. Loktionov playing well would be a great boost too.


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#59 Mike Brown

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Posted 04 October 2013 - 02:24 PM

No one's saying the Devils didn't lack a bit of top end talent, but to say they all sucked is patently false. The team could not score last year, but nothing truly wins games, things can only make it more likely that you'll win. Possessing the puck more and outshooting opponents is a great way to make it more likely that you'll score goals and win.

You, in particular, pointed out Clarkson, who basically scored at the same pace last year as he did in the 2011-12 season, despite his drop off in performance late in the year. The team played the system well, we just lacked a bit of luck and maybe a top 6 player or two to give us more of a scoring touch.

We signed Ryder, Clowe, Brunner and Jagr to replace the lost scoring though and together, they can probably put up as many points as Kovy and Clarkson would have, maybe even a few more. What we need to be a better team than last year is for Zajac and Henrique to have good years. Loktionov playing well would be a great boost too.

 

Very well said.  I couldn't agree more with the bolded part.


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#60 NewarkDevil5

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Posted 04 October 2013 - 02:53 PM

Very well said.  I couldn't agree more with the bolded part.

 

Me three. I've been very frustrated with Travis Zajac. Henrique gets a little more of a pass because he's still in those growing pains years. Zajac should be at his prime though.


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