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#161 Triumph

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Posted 16 October 2013 - 03:08 PM

I think I made it clear that "bust" was an unfair description on my part.  And on twitter, I asked Pronman if he thought Larsson could be called a bust.  He said no, but there was reason to be concerned.

 

Re the breakout passes, if you would like to show me lots of examples of breakout passes that Larsson has made during his Devils tenure that a decently skilled defenseman can't make with some degree of regularity, then fine.  Thus far, I've seen the highlights from the WJC, which don't tell anyone all that much.  And again, if that's all he does particularly well, it's a bit of a disappointment, is all.  A player we hoped would anchor the defense for the foreseeable future ought to have more to his game.

 

Bottom line, I've asked countless times for people to tell me exactly what Larsson does or what he has in his toolbox that supports the hype he's gotten.  All I've gotten in response are "breakout passes" and "he's only 20". 

 

Jesus, you and Sterio should start a club.  Who gives a flying fvck about his WJC results now?  I didn't care about them in 2011.  You are the only one who has brought that up, like that video has somehow superceded the 100+ games we've seen him play.

 

Who is hyping Larsson here?  Other than people who don't understand aging curves/stats in other pro leagues.  

 

Larsson has a hard shot, but a slow release.  If his release gets better, he'll be quite a good shooter.  Still, a defenseman's shot isn't usually what makes up a lot of his value.  He has confident vision in the offensive zone - he can find sticks with passes, not just blindly bang the puck towards the net.  His speed is not a strength, but when he learns how to read the play better it won't be such a weakness.  He can be physical sometimes, though that's not going to be his game all the time.  I still expect him to be a 25 minute all situations type of defenseman who is strong in the corners, kills penalties, and plays the PP2 (or PP1 if that aspect is weak for the Devils), with around 30 points a season and who drives play slightly.  He's not going to dominate games.  One of the critical parts of his game is that when he fully matures, he should have no real weaknesses in his game.


Edited by Triumph, 16 October 2013 - 03:12 PM.

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#162 Marshall

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Posted 16 October 2013 - 03:20 PM

well well... just as i made a point pretty clear not to focus on what i said about that one guy and just take the general meaning of what i said... guess who comes out and do exactly what i said not to do... *clap clap*

 

Man, you really are the Dennis Wideman-penalty-shot of rhetoric and arguing.


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#163 SterioDesign

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Posted 16 October 2013 - 03:22 PM

Sure thing.  Sheldon Souray scored 23 goals in 152 WHL games.  He followed that up with 9 goals in his first 4 pro seasons.  He's scored 102 NHL goals since then.  I don't think anyone associated with the Devils ever suspected that he would become a PP1 option with his shot.

 

Zdeno Chara scored 3 goals in his first WHL season.  He scored 4 goals in his first pro season.  It took him until his Y23 season to score a significant number of points, and he, like Souray, has been a PP1 option for a decade.

 

yeah and how often does that happen? My Subban example was apparently bad why is those 2 good examples now taken out of the bunch who stayed the same? also, is Chara "top quality" is his production? i certainly don't think so. Thats not what makes him the great dman he is, its certainly a good extra but thats not his bread and butter


Man, you really are the Dennis Wideman-penalty-shot of rhetoric and arguing.

 

from a bunch of homers / kool-aid drinkers point of view... oh sure im sure it does look that way man


Edited by SterioDesign, 16 October 2013 - 03:38 PM.

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#164 ATLL765

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Posted 16 October 2013 - 03:44 PM

yeah and how often does that happen? My Subban example was apparently bad why is those 2 good examples now taken out of the bunch who stayed the same? also, is Chara "top quality" is his production? i certainly don't think so. Thats not what makes him the great dman he is, its certainly a good extra but thats not his bread and butter


 

from a bunch of homers / kool-aid drinkers point of view... oh sure im sure it does look that way man

You're kidding me now, right? You use 1 example and everyone must take it as is, but Tri gives you two and it's bs? He provided the examples because you asked for them.


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#165 Daniel

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Posted 16 October 2013 - 03:48 PM

Jesus, you and Sterio should start a club. Who gives a flying fvck about his WJC results now? I didn't care about them in 2011. You are the only one who has brought that up, like that video has somehow superceded the 100+ games we've seen him play.

Who is hyping Larsson here? Other than people who don't understand aging curves/stats in other pro leagues.

Larsson has a hard shot, but a slow release. If his release gets better, he'll be quite a good shooter. Still, a defenseman's shot isn't usually what makes up a lot of his value. He has confident vision in the offensive zone - he can find sticks with passes, not just blindly bang the puck towards the net. His speed is not a strength, but when he learns how to read the play better it won't be such a weakness. He can be physical sometimes, though that's not going to be his game all the time. I still expect him to be a 25 minute all situations type of defenseman who is strong in the corners, kills penalties, and plays the PP2 (or PP1 if that aspect is weak for the Devils), with around 30 points a season and who drives play slightly. He's not going to dominate games. One of the critical parts of his game is that when he fully matures, he should have no real weaknesses in his game.

Jeebus, I mentioned the WJC as the only example of something positive that I saw, and said it doesn't matter all that much.

The hype I've heard is that he was the top rated defenseman at the draft, and that some had him as the best player in what at the time was thought to be a decent draft, albeit not spectacular draft. That's a player you're expecting to be a little better than a solid defenseman that doesn't dominate games, which btw it isn't the end of the world if that's what he is.

As to the projections specifically, he gets pushed around in the corners and along the boards, and shows quite a bit of panic. Plus, it seems things are getting worse. Maybe that's a DeBoer issue, maybe just a bump in the road. But it doesn't create a ton of optimism.

Edited by Daniel, 16 October 2013 - 03:49 PM.

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#166 Devil Dan 56

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Posted 16 October 2013 - 03:52 PM

yeah and how often does that happen? My Subban example was apparently bad why is those 2 good examples now taken out of the bunch who stayed the same? also, is Chara "top quality" is his production? i certainly don't think so. Thats not what makes him the great dman he is, its certainly a good extra but thats not his bread and butter


 

 

 

You said

 

 

Name me one very good defence that his major skills/strength was not there when he got in the league and suddenly became his bread and butter. THAT'S what i meant.

 

 

Tri named two. Now you're complaining that those examples don't count? Is there a rule book for your ever changing argument?

 

As Tri said:

 

 

Larsson has a hard shot, but a slow release.  If his release gets better, he'll be quite a good shooter.  Still, a defenseman's shot isn't usually what makes up a lot of his value.  He has confident vision in the offensive zone - he can find sticks with passes, not just blindly bang the puck towards the net.  His speed is not a strength, but when he learns how to read the play better it won't be such a weakness.  He can be physical sometimes, though that's not going to be his game all the time.  I still expect him to be a 25 minute all situations type of defenseman who is strong in the corners, kills penalties, and plays the PP2 (or PP1 if that aspect is weak for the Devils), with around 30 points a season and who drives play slightly.  He's not going to dominate games.  One of the critical parts of his game is that when he fully matures, he should have no real weaknesses in his game.

 

That's what Larsson should bring when he's fully developed. Just because those aren't the highlight reel skills you want doesn't make them useless.


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#167 Triumph

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Posted 16 October 2013 - 04:24 PM

The other thing is that Larsson has played 2 years and he is still the 13th youngest defenseman playing in the NHL right now.


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#168 DH26

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Posted 16 October 2013 - 04:33 PM

The other thing is that Larsson has played 2 years and he is still the 13th youngest defenseman playing in the NHL right now.

 

He's been in the league half a season less than Ryan McDonagh and his draft year was 4 years later. He's not Doughty but he'll get better


Edited by DH26, 16 October 2013 - 04:34 PM.

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#169 Mike Brown

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Posted 16 October 2013 - 05:22 PM

Really?!?!?!

 

Guy hasnt even won a Vezina.

 

You have to be an exceptionally good Golatender with the hardwear to show for it to get into the HOF.

 

Luongo will be in the HOF.  Mark my words.  Is he a lock?  No.  But he's one of the best goalies to ever play.  But this is a Larsson thread, not a Luongo thread.

 

I hope he was being sarcastic lol...

 

Nope.

 

Luongo is an HOF level goaltender, sorry guys.  He's 4th all time in save percentage, he'll probably be top 10 in wins when it's over.  He hasn't won a Vezina by sheer chance - he had a better season than Brodeur two of the times Brodeur took the award.  

 

It's deeply ironic that I am the one that has to tell you this but:  Watch the games.  Outlet passing isn't a random skill that players either exhibit or don't - it's the ability to find the stick of your man as he's moving around the ice.  It's a difficult thing to do - a lot of defensemen never really master it.  Larsson came into the league and he was able to do it like a veteran - he makes his share of mistakes doing it still, but those will diminish in time.  This should be a skill that jumps out at you when watching hockey.  How it translates into performance is more difficult to pin down, but Larsson hasn't been a significant territorial drag despite his other limitations, so I suspect it's his passing skill that's kept him afloat.

 

As for Larsson's physicality, that will increase once his speed does.  He won't be a guy that's throwing huge hits left and right but that's of dubious value anyway.  He can definitely catch people unaware at the blueline from time to time.

 

I disagree with the first statement.  Brodeur deserved it the Vezina in both 04 and 07.  I'm no homer either.

 

I agree completely with your Larsson analysis though.  He's coming along albeit slowly.

 

He's been in the league half a season less than Ryan McDonagh and his draft year was 4 years later. He's not Doughty but he'll get better

 

I think people need to realize that defensemen take a lot longer to develop than forwards.  Guys like Karlsson and Subban are more flashy than they are effective.  No knock on either player.  Both PK and Erik are great players.  Larsson just doesn't have the offensive skill those two have so it looks like Larsson isn't as good.  The truth is, Larsson's game will never impress you.

 

He's never going to be fast.  But he's a pretty mobile guy.

He's never going to be physical.  But he's certainly not afraid of contact.

He's never gonna be a dangler.  But he's still pretty good with the puck.


Edited by Mike Brown, 16 October 2013 - 05:22 PM.

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#170 DH26

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Posted 16 October 2013 - 07:22 PM

If he turns out to be someone like Ladislav Smid with a little more offense is that really that awful or disappointing? He was another high pick, more defensive defenseman (without the outlet passing ability) and Smid took forever to turn into something decent


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#171 Mike Brown

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Posted 16 October 2013 - 07:33 PM

If he turns out to be someone like Ladislav Smid with a little more offense is that really that awful or disappointing? He was another high pick, more defensive defenseman (without the outlet passing ability) and Smid took forever to turn into something decent

 

I could live with that.  Yea it would be disappointing if he didn't become great, but it wouldn't be a bad thing if he took the same route Victor Hedman is taking.


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#172 nessus

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Posted 16 October 2013 - 09:24 PM

I could live with that.  Yea it would be disappointing if he didn't become great, but it wouldn't be a bad thing if he took the same route Victor Hedman is taking.

Hedman had 20 points over 44 games last year. If he turns out anything like Hedman (someone I think is one of the best defensemen in the NHL right now), I'll still think he's a steal at 4th overall.


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#173 Devil Dan 56

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Posted 16 October 2013 - 09:31 PM

Hedman had 20 points over 44 games last year. If he turns out anything like Hedman (someone I think is one of the best defensemen in the NHL right now), I'll still think he's a steal at 4th overall.

 

Coincidentally, Hedman is another one people called a bust at 19 and 20. 


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#174 Mike Brown

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Posted 16 October 2013 - 10:52 PM

Hedman had 20 points over 44 games last year. If he turns out anything like Hedman (someone I think is one of the best defensemen in the NHL right now), I'll still think he's a steal at 4th overall.

 

Yea he's been quietly improving every year.

 

Coincidentally, Hedman is another one people called a bust at 19 and 20. 

 

People still think he's a bust.


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#175 Marshall

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Posted 17 October 2013 - 02:06 AM

 

People still think he's a bust.

 

People don't pay attention and people are often quite stupid.


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#176 Chimaira_Devil_#9

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Posted 17 October 2013 - 04:03 AM

Luongo is an HOF level goaltender, sorry guys.  He's 4th all time in save percentage, he'll probably be top 10 in wins when it's over.  He hasn't won a Vezina by sheer chance - he had a better season than Brodeur two of the times Brodeur took the award.  

 

 

 

Luongo will be in the HOF.  Mark my words.  Is he a lock?  No.  But he's one of the best goalies to ever play.  But this is a Larsson thread, not a Luongo thread.

 

 

I disagree but that’s just my personal opinion, i find him much like Curtis Joseph, he has some great numbers in key areas but not a lot to show for it.

 

A lot of the time its more based on perception of the player, without winning anything you get the feeling the guy was good , but he was never able to get it done, he wasn’t a winner.

 

If he does get in its going to be a long while before he does. Mike Vernon needs to go in before Luongo.

 

But as has been pointed out this is a Larsson thread so i will leave it at that.


Edited by Chimaira_Devil_#9, 17 October 2013 - 04:06 AM.

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#177 NLinfante

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Posted 17 October 2013 - 06:50 AM

People don't pay attention and people are often quite stupid.

 

 

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#178 Colorado Rockies 1976

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Posted 17 October 2013 - 06:51 AM

I disagree but that’s just my personal opinion, i find him much like Curtis Joseph, he has some great numbers in key areas but not a lot to show for it.

 

 

A lot of the time its more based on perception of the player, without winning anything you get the feeling the guy was good , but he was never able to get it done, he wasn’t a winner.

 

 

If he does get in its going to be a long while before he does. Mike Vernon needs to go in before Luongo.

 

 

But as has been pointed out this is a Larsson thread so i will leave it at that.

 

Tri and some others don't believe in the concept of "clutch"...they feel that players are almost like robots, pretty much the same from the neck up, and that guys who are labeled "clutch winners" because they show an ability to perform in big spots while others don't (losers, chokers, etc) is merely an example of people making too much out of short samples (which playoff runs, compared to the whole of a career, really are). 

 

Tri and the clutch-debunkers will point to cold numbers, and the first thing they'll tell you is that Luongo's career playoff save% isn't much different than his regular season save% (.916 playoff, .919 regular season).  Problem is, Luongo has yet to actually RAISE his game when playoff time rolls around (though he did play very well in 10-11 up until his team closed to within two wins of taking the Cup).  Guys like Marty have shown that ability, and some (like Marty) multiple times.  

 

Though I do think that "clutch" and "choker" probably get thrown around too liberally at times, I've come to believe in "the knack"...some guys just seem to have it, for raising their games often when needed most, and who has it and who doesn't seems pretty random.  Look at Marty's '95, '00, and '03 Cup runs as examples.  '01 was clearly a different story, and if he had played anywhere near as well as he did his during his other three runs, the Devils have a fourth Cup banner hanging at the Rock.  But let's face it...in all sports, fans just want to see you do it ONCE, just to know that you CAN do it...once that happens, they'll let a lot of things go.  Peyton Manning did, Alex Rodriguez did (though both still hear about their postseason failures, just not as much as when they were ringless). 

 

If Luongo had won just one more playoff game in 2010-11, he's probably thought of a lot better.  But people are going to remember that he put up an .846 save% (that actually includes a 31-save shutout) in the final five games in those 10-11 SC Finals (he had been terrific up until that point)...when his team needed him most, he couldn't even stay at status quo.  Might seem harsh, in that one win or one moment can make such a difference in how a player is perceived, but that's often how it goes.  It's the reason many Mets fans think of Adam Wainwright when they think of Carlos Beltran's Met career.

 

Re:  Larsson...yeah, reasons for concern, but I'm hopeful.  I get the feeling that it's going to be the next coaching staff that gets more out of him (not saying that DeBoer is out of here tomorrow)...it could be almost like a Petr Sykora situation, who didn't exactly flourish under Lemaire (though he showed flashes), but then played well for both Ftorek and Robinson.      


Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976, 17 October 2013 - 07:59 AM.

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#179 SterioDesign

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Posted 17 October 2013 - 06:55 AM

You're kidding me now, right? You use 1 example and everyone must take it as is, but Tri gives you two and it's bs? He provided the examples because you asked for them.

 

wow youre really turning this around so its against me aren't ya?

 

i used ONE example stating that its just a vague example one out of the bunch just to really put a name on it and say to look at the "general meaning" of what im trying to say NOT to take that one particular example cause then we would have got too specific on Subban's case which is what i didint want i wanted my point to stay GENERAL, thats why i said not too jump on wtv name i'd pick cause all situations are different so i was asking to get the GENERAL MEANING behind what i was saying. Which everyone clearly missed since they went straight at Subban with replies. Then i later had to go with "Player A" doing this this and that. I should i went with that from the start

 

Then i'm pointing out that 2 of his examples we're ALSO loopholed situations with very special players and not the usual case (pointing out the irony that it's been pointed out to me earlier with my examples... that i asked not to get specific)

 

I never said to take my example its the other way around, i said "ok im gonna throw this name in just so we have a real situation to refer to BUT don't look into THAT specific case for comparison cause every case is different, instead look generally at what i want to say here) which was that in most cases you already have most of your assets when you get in the league they don't just appear.


Edited by SterioDesign, 17 October 2013 - 07:05 AM.

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#180 Marshall

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Posted 17 October 2013 - 07:02 AM

I'm also gonna start using players to refer to, but when people do I'm gonna get angry and tell them to not refer to or compare those players. I think it will go great and I will win many arguments, since every case is different and half of what I wrote then has nothing to do with anything. It will go smashingly well.


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