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#1361 devilsrule33

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Posted 25 March 2014 - 10:01 AM

You are comparing different eras. The average save percentage was much lower during the period you're referencing. GAA is a horsesh!t stat for goalies and should only be used as a team statistic. Would Schneider have been elite in the 90s and early 00s? Hell yeah he'd be. Steve Bernier would also have been an elite forward in the 80s, Marty would've been legendary in the 70s...you can't take players out of their context and comparing them vs other generations and eras. 

 

Marty's greatness is his durability, being perfect for the Devils and being above average for such a long period. 

 

Of course it is a horse sh!t statistic, but the Devils have had such great team defense for Marty's entire career playing behind so many great defensemen and defensive-minded coaches, I thought it was relevant enough. It's a team-stat and the team was a lot better throughout Brodeur's career than it is today, no?  Not like lead-wide scoring has changed much since 1998. These aren't really different eras besides 05-07 where there was so many power plays each night that led to the only real spike in scoring. I guess I'd have to see the even strength save percentage's to compare. But late 90s and early to mid 2000s isn't a whole lot different. If ther eis adjusted save percentage it be interesting to see it.

 

Save Percentage - 20041.Dwayne Roloson-MIN.933 Miikka Kiprusoff-CGY.9333.Roberto Luongo-FLA.930 4.Vesa Toskala-SJS.930 5.Andrew Raycroft-BOS.926 6.David Aebischer-COL.924 7.Evgeni Nabokov-SJS.921 8.Manny Legace-DET.919 9.Jose Theodore-MTL.919 10.Martin Gerber-MDA.918 11.Jussi Markkanen-2TM.918 12.Marc Denis-CBJ.918 13.Ed Belfour*-TOR.918 14.Martin Prusek-OTT.917 15.Martin Brodeur-NJD.916 16.Robert Esche-PHI.915 17.Manny Fernandez-MIN.915 18.Dan Cloutier-VAN.914 19.Jean-Sebastien Giguere-MDA.914 20.Martin Biron-BUF.913

 

Save Percentage - 2014 1.Josh Harding-MIN.933 2.Tuukka Rask-BOS.930 3.Ben Scrivens-2TM.929 4.Anton Khudobin-CAR.927 5.Ben Bishop-TBL.926 6.Semyon Varlamov-COL.925 7.Jonathan Bernier-TOR.925 8.Carey Price-MTL.924 9.Ryan Miller-2TM.922 10.Darcy Kuemper-MIN.922 11.Brian Elliott-STL.921 12.Al Montoya-WPG.921 13.Jaroslav Halak-2TM.920 14.Sergei Bobrovsky-CBJ.919 15.Corey Crawford-CHI.919 16.Jonathan Quick-LAK.918 17.Henrik Lundqvist-NYR.918 18.Roberto Luongo-2TM.917 19.Kari Lehtonen-DAL.917 20.Steve Mason-PHI.916

 

My point still stands that Schneider this year has not been much better or worse than Brodeur 10-15 years ago. 


Edited by devilsrule33, 25 March 2014 - 10:05 AM.

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#1362 Triumph

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Posted 25 March 2014 - 11:31 AM

Sounds like you would have traded Marty in 1999. That displays a complete inability to assess the intangibles that special players can have which make them great.

 

Nonetheless, I am not saying Cory is having a bad season, I am not ready to label his season at all. All I said is that Cory has had some extended periods of poor play during the season, especially when he got the chance to be the outright starter. The point I have been making (it seems there is a desire to turn this argument into Marty vs. Cory when that's not the point) is that the alternating between the goalies has been generally fair and even if Cory is the much better goalie, it's not such a big deal that Marty has started the games he has (I have said this verbatim over and over again).

 

You guys have such an anti-Marty fervor (I am not sure yet if I sympathize with this) that it seems to you that everyone else is arguing that Marty still should be the starter and that Cory is not that good. Nothing could be farther from the truth. I hope Cory starts 70 games next year.

 

It is a big deal.  For one, I don't think Schneider is a true talent .915 goalie.  I think he's better than that.

 

Cory has had some extended periods of poor play.  He has also had extended periods of superlative play.  For that, he's rewarded with the bench, once again.  Anyone who doesn't see this is blind - Brodeur should've started maybe 20 games this year, instead he has started 35 and will probably get to 40.  That means the Devils have given up 6 more goals than they should've and that's if you assume these save percentages represent true talents, which I do not.  The gap was as wide as .5 goals against, which would mean 10 goals.  You're prepared to give up 10 more goals a season in the interest of 'fairness'?  


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#1363 DJ Eco

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Posted 25 March 2014 - 11:41 AM

It is a big deal.  For one, I don't think Schneider is a true talent .915 goalie.  I think he's better than that.

 

Cory has had some extended periods of poor play.  He has also had extended periods of superlative play. 

 

Important to note that he was playing like a stud right up until the Olympic break and only after the THREE WEEK LAYOFF was when his play dipped (and seems to have picked up again). The circumstances of having 3 weeks off are pretty rare so it doesn't worry me one bit. I'm super confident in Schneider as the #1. And if we DON'T SIGN HIM this offseason, he at least better be getting 85% of the starts next year regardless of who is our backup.


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#1364 Neb00rs

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Posted 25 March 2014 - 11:53 AM

It is a big deal.  For one, I don't think Schneider is a true talent .915 goalie.  I think he's better than that.

 

Cory has had some extended periods of poor play.  He has also had extended periods of superlative play.  For that, he's rewarded with the bench, once again.  Anyone who doesn't see this is blind - Brodeur should've started maybe 20 games this year, instead he has started 35 and will probably get to 40.  That means the Devils have given up 6 more goals than they should've and that's if you assume these save percentages represent true talents, which I do not.  The gap was as wide as .5 goals against, which would mean 10 goals.  You're prepared to give up 10 more goals a season in the interest of 'fairness'?  

 

Speaking of 'fairness', I think this is a very fair post, probably the most so yet in opposition to my opinion. But let me point out where we differ (obviously it starts at "For that..."). I don't really think Cory has been "rewarded with the bench". I don't mean to play rhetorical games but it is important to point out hyperbole when it has an effect on the argument. It is true however, to say that Cory was not rewarded with the undisputed starting position for his play, and that he had the starting position taken away because of his play. I am not prepared to give up that many more goals - obviously 10 is a very significant number - but, I don't know what would have happened. Both goalies have been unpredictable. That's why I don't think it's a big deal that Marty starts because the Cory thing isn't necessarily bringing us victories. Neither is the Marty thing. Both have shown (perhaps Marty to a lesser degree) to be able to play well and (Cory to a lesser degree) to win and both have played like sh!t. I accept that Cory is in a funk and will come out of it but at this point in the season I can't say that I am much more confident with Cory in goal.

 

One thing is clear: Cory is the better goalie and needs to be the guy next year. If Marty were to re-sign and play 40 games next year I would probably explode and assert that Lou is trying to just burn the ship down before he leaves. I don't see that happening though. I think Marty will be in a different jersey next year or none at all. (And as a bold prediction, I think there is a good chance Lou might retire after this season or the next).


Edited by Neb00rs, 25 March 2014 - 12:02 PM.

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#1365 Devil Dan 56

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Posted 25 March 2014 - 11:54 AM

Deboer definitely went back to Marty a lot of times when he should have let Cory play through something. He was weighing wins very heavily in his decisions. Look at how the season began. This is October until the end of November... Notice I'm not mentioning the goalies performance, because this is how I feel Deboer is looking at this:

 

@Pit: Cory L

NYI: Marty SOL

@Edm: Marty SOL

@Van: Cory L

@Cal: Marty L

@Win: Cory L

@Otw: Marty L

NYR: Cory W

@Clb: Cory L

Van: Cory SOL

@BOS: Marty W

TB: Marty W

Phi: Marty L

@Min: Cory L

@Phi: Marty W

@Tor: Cory SOL

Nas: Marty W

@NYR: Marty W

LA: Cory L

Pit: Marty W

@Ana: Marty W

@LA: Cory W

@SJ: Marty L

Win: Marty L

Car: Marty L

@Car: Cory W

Buf: Cory W

 

What I see here is that Cory, even though we all know he outplayed Brodeur, didn't string 2 wins together until November 29th-30th. If Deboer is making his decisions solely on wins and losses, it makes sense. It's not really smart given how good Cory is, but it seems understandable. We also know Cory had a bad December, and when he started to really play his best in January and February, he played a lion's share of the games.


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#1366 Daniel

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Posted 25 March 2014 - 12:31 PM

Speaking of 'fairness', I think this is a very fair post, probably the most so yet in opposition to my opinion. But let me point out where we differ (obviously it starts at "For that..."). I don't really think Cory has been "rewarded with the bench". I don't mean to play rhetorical games but it is important to point out hyperbole when it has an effect on the argument. It is true however, to say that Cory was not rewarded with the undisputed starting position for his play, and that he had the starting position taken away because of his play. I am not prepared to give up that many more goals - obviously 10 is a very significant number - but, I don't know what would have happened. Both goalies have been unpredictable. That's why I don't think it's a big deal that Marty starts because the Cory thing isn't necessarily bringing us victories. Neither is the Marty thing. Both have shown (perhaps Marty to a lesser degree) to be able to play well and (Cory to a lesser degree) to win and both have played like sh!t. I accept that Cory is in a funk and will come out of it but at this point in the season I can't say that I am much more confident with Cory in goal.

 

One thing is clear: Cory is the better goalie and needs to be the guy next year. If Marty were to re-sign and play 40 games next year I would probably explode and assert that Lou is trying to just burn the ship down before he leaves. I don't see that happening though. I think Marty will be in a different jersey next year or none at all. (And as a bold prediction, I think there is a good chance Lou might retire after this season or the next).

 

I think the issue is a lack of perspective.  For the past two years the Devils have been a very mediocre team.  So please lets not pretend that it was the goaltending, whether you think it was good or awful, that was holding this team back from being world beaters.  And when the team was actually good, the goaltending was good enough for 103 points and a run to the SCF.  That's a successful result no matter how you slice it.

 

Optimal goaltending arguably puts us on the same level as Minnesota this year or Ottawa last year.  Bubble to bottom seeded playoff teams.  It's better than being effectively eliminated with 10 games left, but that's about it.  


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#1367 devilsrule33

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Posted 25 March 2014 - 12:51 PM

I think the issue is a lack of perspective.  For the past two years the Devils have been a very mediocre team.  So please lets not pretend that it was the goaltending, whether you think it was good or awful, that was holding this team back from being world beaters.  And when the team was actually good, the goaltending was good enough for 103 points and a run to the SCF.  That's a successful result no matter how you slice it.

 

Optimal goaltending arguably puts us on the same level as Minnesota this year or Ottawa last year.  Bubble to bottom seeded playoff teams.  It's better than being effectively eliminated with 10 games left, but that's about it.  

 

The Devils were a mediocre team last year, but mostly because of goaltending. Hedberg was atrocious. Brodeur was very bad. And the offense stopped scoring the minute Kovalchuk got hurt. But they actually were dominating within the games. I guess some people here will say mediocre offense, others will say unlucky, but they controlled play most nights and had a major advantage in zone time.

 

Brodeur was not a victim of anything but his own play last year. He faced less than 20 shots in 11 of his 29 starts. He lost 4 games when having to make 13 or less saves.

 

See for yourself: http://ca.sports.yah.../?season=2012_2

 

This is why the debate for Brodeur vs Schneider isn't about this season. It is just as much about what the two goalies have done the prior few years.

 

EDIT: Originally said Brodeur faced 20 shots or less in 11 of his 19 starts. Meant to type 29. It has been fixed.


Edited by devilsrule33, 25 March 2014 - 01:04 PM.

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#1368 Neb00rs

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Posted 25 March 2014 - 01:01 PM

I think the issue is a lack of perspective.  For the past two years the Devils have been a very mediocre team.  So please lets not pretend that it was the goaltending, whether you think it was good or awful, that was holding this team back from being world beaters.  And when the team was actually good, the goaltending was good enough for 103 points and a run to the SCF.  That's a successful result no matter how you slice it.

 

Optimal goaltending arguably puts us on the same level as Minnesota this year or Ottawa last year.  Bubble to bottom seeded playoff teams.  It's better than being effectively eliminated with 10 games left, but that's about it.  

 

I completely agree with this. It gets blown way out of proportion.


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#1369 Triumph

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Posted 25 March 2014 - 01:22 PM

I completely agree with this. It gets blown way out of proportion.

 

Hahaha.  It's a bigger decision than literally any others the coach can make.  It's like putting Cam Janssen in for 15 minutes a night half the games of the year.  But sure, it's blown way out of proportion.


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#1370 Devil Dan 56

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Posted 25 March 2014 - 01:42 PM

As fun as it is to blame the season on one person, the bigger problem seems to be that the offense can't put a puck in the ocean if they were standing on the pier for most of this season. Goaltending and defense will be fine next year (assuming Marty moves on). I'm more interested in what happens offensively this offseason.


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#1371 Daniel

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Posted 25 March 2014 - 01:50 PM

The Devils were a mediocre team last year, but mostly because of goaltending. Hedberg was atrocious. Brodeur was very bad. And the offense stopped scoring the minute Kovalchuk got hurt. But they actually were dominating within the games. I guess some people here will say mediocre offense, others will say unlucky, but they controlled play most nights and had a major advantage in zone time.

 

Brodeur was not a victim of anything but his own play last year. He faced less than 20 shots in 11 of his 29 starts. He lost 4 games when having to make 13 or less saves.

 

See for yourself: http://ca.sports.yah.../?season=2012_2

 

This is why the debate for Brodeur vs Schneider isn't about this season. It is just as much about what the two goalies have done the prior few years.

 

EDIT: Originally said Brodeur faced 20 shots or less in 11 of his 19 starts. Meant to type 29. It has been fixed.

 

I am not saying that Brodeur is a victim of anything, or even that he's particularly good.  The point is that even with optimal goaltending this is not a team that's going to set the world on fire, and when it was a good team, it went to the SCF evidently with the worst goaltending tandem of all time. 

 

And hmm, you note that the Devils offense stopped scoring when Kovalchuk got hurt.  You know what else happened, the Devils started a nose dive in the standings, to the point that they were in the playoffs when he got hurt, and basically found themselves in the same spot in the standings now when he got back.  If I recall correctly, the team lost it's next ten games after he got hurt.  But you're right, Kovy was not a particularly valuable player and the stat that matters least is winning and losing. 


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#1372 Triumph

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Posted 25 March 2014 - 01:57 PM

I am not saying that Brodeur is a victim of anything, or even that he's particularly good.  The point is that even with optimal goaltending this is not a team that's going to set the world on fire, and when it was a good team, it went to the SCF evidently with the worst goaltending tandem of all time. 

 

And hmm, you note that the Devils offense stopped scoring when Kovalchuk got hurt.  You know what else happened, the Devils started a nose dive in the standings, to the point that they were in the playoffs when he got hurt, and basically found themselves in the same spot in the standings now when he got back.  If I recall correctly, the team lost it's next ten games after he got hurt.  But you're right, Kovy was not a particularly valuable player and the stat that matters least is winning and losing. 

 

Right because Kovalchuk was worth 8 wins a season on his own.  Give me a fvcking break.  It should also be noted how bad Brodeur and Hedberg were during that stretch, but hey, who cares about that we got a 9th overall pick - awesome!  Oh - we traded it - but for a goalie!  Yes!  Awesome!  Oh, we only played him in half the games.  

 

I'd love to have seen this team without Schneider, competing for the lottery pick, Brodeur with the record he deserves, no help coming, him just killing his teammates in the press while he takes no blame - would've been a fun season here at njdevs.com.


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#1373 SterioDesign

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Posted 25 March 2014 - 02:10 PM

I HONESTLY don't know what the blame should go on at this point... Other than Murphy's Law

 

When our goalie let in only one goal, the offence is dry and can't score any

When we score 3-4 goals, our goalies are going to let in 4-5 goals

When we have a lead late in game, we'll literally find any way to blow the lead

We're one if not the best PK team in the league, top half best PP too...

Anything that could "not help" the Devils in other games is literally happening 90% of the time it seems

 

To me yes the team is absolutely inconsistant but on top of that their timing is even worst.

 

The only games we did really well is when everything aligned at the same time and that happened only a handful of times through the season...

 

Not sure how much of that "phenomenon" can be put on the coaches... but again, can't see myself blaming the coaches cause they we're really not given a really competitive roster to work with either.

 

Just a really painful time to be a Devil fan honestly... Lost Zach, Kovy, Robinson, Clarkson (well i never liked him but he was loved by some), Doc... soon we'll lose Brodeur, Elias, Chiko, Lou... We're really slowly losing everything that was Devils hockey to us


Edited by SterioDesign, 25 March 2014 - 02:11 PM.

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#1374 Daniel

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Posted 25 March 2014 - 02:15 PM

Right because Kovalchuk was worth 8 wins a season on his own.  Give me a fvcking break.  It should also be noted how bad Brodeur and Hedberg were during that stretch, but hey, who cares about that we got a 9th overall pick - awesome!  Oh - we traded it - but for a goalie!  Yes!  Awesome!  Oh, we only played him in half the games.  

 

I'd love to have seen this team without Schneider, competing for the lottery pick, Brodeur with the record he deserves, no help coming, him just killing his teammates in the press while he takes no blame - would've been a fun season here at njdevs.com.

 

You have theories, I have the results.  I know he literally wasn't worth 8 wins if such a number can even be calculated, and I never said they win all of those games if Kovy's there.  But you're living in fantasy land if you think the two events are not connected.

 

And I wish I could find that Mr. Show skit you posted a while ago during the whole you suck debate.  I challenge you to find one person (ok I guess you can find a few of them) that doesn't wish Schneider was getting more starts.  Even after Marty has a great game, almost everyone is saying that they hope Schneider gets the next game.  In fact, you have some people hoping that Marty craps the bed so Schneider gets the next batch of starts.... which, what do you know, did in fact happen. 

 

And also, even with Cory getting more starts than Marty (or maybe they're 50/50 right now), i.e. a vast improvement over last year, the Devils would be competing for a lottery pick if they had one.  Or they're in the same spot as they were last year.


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#1375 devilsrule33

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Posted 25 March 2014 - 02:16 PM

I am not saying that Brodeur is a victim of anything, or even that he's particularly good.  The point is that even with optimal goaltending this is not a team that's going to set the world on fire, and when it was a good team, it went to the SCF evidently with the worst goaltending tandem of all time. 

 

And hmm, you note that the Devils offense stopped scoring when Kovalchuk got hurt.  You know what else happened, the Devils started a nose dive in the standings, to the point that they were in the playoffs when he got hurt, and basically found themselves in the same spot in the standings now when he got back.  If I recall correctly, the team lost it's next ten games after he got hurt.  But you're right, Kovy was not a particularly valuable player and the stat that matters least is winning and losing. 

 

 

I'm a little confused by this sarcasm-filled post. I said Kovalchuk out was a gigantic blow. But it has nothing to do with goaltending. I care about wins and losses but if you only look at wins and losses you will make some very serious mistakes evaluating teams. If the Devils were scoring more, it would just mask bad goaltending. If the Devils won 10 in a row, 6-5, should we forget about the goaltending, of course not? Just with the team not scoring, I am not going to forget about the goaltending. I'm not going to forget the sh!t goals let in and the general poor play.

 

Brodeur had 1 good game during that losing streak. He was part of the problem throughout it. 


Edited by devilsrule33, 25 March 2014 - 02:17 PM.

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#1376 Daniel

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Posted 25 March 2014 - 02:36 PM

I'm a little confused by this sarcasm-filled post. I said Kovalchuk out was a gigantic blow. But it has nothing to do with goaltending. I care about wins and losses but if you only look at wins and losses you will make some very serious mistakes evaluating teams. If the Devils were scoring more, it would just mask bad goaltending. If the Devils won 10 in a row, 6-5, should we forget about the goaltending, of course not? Just with the team not scoring, I am not going to forget about the goaltending. I'm not going to forget the sh!t goals let in and the general poor play.

 

Brodeur had 1 good game during that losing streak. He was part of the problem throughout it. 

 

The point is that people are exaggerating how much a part of the problem he really was, or at least their sarcasm makes it sound like they are.   Last year only one team that was in the same ball park in goals for as the Devils made the playoffs, and needed Vezina level goaltending to do it, if at least if you're going on save percentage.  This year, it's basically the same story. 

 

As it stands now the Devils are a bubble type playoff team, or perhaps were up until early last week.  Last year we were too, but with worse goaltending overall.  Not saying that the Devils would not be  better with Cory getting, say 70-80 percent of the starts, but not by that much.  Maybe a wildcard berth or third seed in the Metro division. That's a team that has much bigger problems than Marty, i.e. a little perspective would be nice. 


Edited by Daniel, 25 March 2014 - 02:40 PM.

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#1377 Triumph

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Posted 25 March 2014 - 02:37 PM

You have theories, I have the results.  I know he literally wasn't worth 8 wins if such a number can even be calculated, and I never said they win all of those games if Kovy's there.  But you're living in fantasy land if you think the two events are not connected.

 

And I wish I could find that Mr. Show skit you posted a while ago during the whole you suck debate.  I challenge you to find one person (ok I guess you can find a few of them) that doesn't wish Schneider was getting more starts.  Even after Marty has a great game, almost everyone is saying that they hope Schneider gets the next game.  In fact, you have some people hoping that Marty craps the bed so Schneider gets the next batch of starts.... which, what do you know, did in fact happen. 

 

And also, even with Cory getting more starts than Marty (or maybe they're 50/50 right now), i.e. a vast improvement over last year, the Devils would be competing for a lottery pick if they had one.  Or they're in the same spot as they were last year.

 

Am I?  Do you think I can't find 10 games in a row with Ilya Kovalchuk in the Devils' lineup where they score that few goals?  Because I know I can.  So this idea that somehow Kovalchuk was responsible for all of NJ's scoring and without him the team falls apart - well, it's a myth.  It's unfortunate that that's how things turned out, and they definitely missed him, but to the extent that NJ turned into a team worse than an expansion team - not so.  One thing that didn't help them was that their goaltenders continually gave up awful goals, giving them even deeper holes to climb out of.


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#1378 dmann422

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Posted 25 March 2014 - 02:41 PM

I'm as big of a deboer/Lou defender that there is (if you want to call it that), but even to me it's blatantly obvious that the goalie situation has been really messed up this season.

Both goalies (and most goalies for that matter) perform better when they get in a groove, know that they'll be getting a string of starts and not have to constantly worry about being benched after every subpar performance. Marty himself has stated in the past that the more reps he gets the better he plays.

The fact that they've been ping pinged around constantly throughout the season has only hurt both of their performances IMO.
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#1379 Daniel

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Posted 25 March 2014 - 03:17 PM

Am I?  Do you think I can't find 10 games in a row with Ilya Kovalchuk in the Devils' lineup where they score that few goals?  Because I know I can.  So this idea that somehow Kovalchuk was responsible for all of NJ's scoring and without him the team falls apart - well, it's a myth.  It's unfortunate that that's how things turned out, and they definitely missed him, but to the extent that NJ turned into a team worse than an expansion team - not so.  One thing that didn't help them was that their goaltenders continually gave up awful goals, giving them even deeper holes to climb out of.

 

Looked at last year's games, and actually the goals for did go off a cliff when Kovy got hurt.  It was something like a 1.7 goals for average during that time.  The worst they did during any other ten game stretch that year was something like 2.2 (the latter number might be off a bit).  Don't have the inclination to go look at the prior two years.  I'd guess though that they never had that bad a goal scoring drought since the dark days of the John MacLean era.   


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#1380 Triumph

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Posted 25 March 2014 - 03:36 PM

Looked at last year's games, and actually the goals for did go off a cliff when Kovy got hurt.  It was something like a 1.7 goals for average during that time.  The worst they did during any other ten game stretch that year was something like 2.2 (the latter number might be off a bit).  Don't have the inclination to go look at the prior two years.  I'd guess though that they never had that bad a goal scoring drought since the dark days of the John MacLean era.   

 

And your point is?  My point is that Kovalchuk has been in the lineup and the scoring has been worse.  Almost sounds like there's lots of luck at bottom when it comes to scoring.


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