The disconnect is how much it has really cost the Devils this season (and I suppose for the future if you're of the mind that the situation has Schneider disgruntled). You can go back and look at all the games where Marty played poorly, assume that Schneider wins those games, assume further that Schneider wins all or most of the games that Marty played well in and didn't get a ton of goal support (there were a few of those) and also assume that Marty doesn't win any of the games that Schneider lost, and come up with a number of points that the Devils would otherwise have. Yes, over long stretches of time it becomes a pointless exercise. But we're not quite there. Whatever the reason, Schneider's save percentage has declined this season to the point that the differences between the two goalies in that regard is not particularly dramatic. It's a pretty safe bet that over the next few season, his save percentage will stablize to something that's at least very good, if not outstanding. But if we're talking about the relative short term the division of starts between the goaltenders is not the Devils' biggest problem.
It's their biggest easily fixable problem. All you have to do is write down a different name.
I'm not going through games and sorting out which is which. Eric Tulsky already did a great accounting of this: 'Here's a slightly oversimplified version of how it'd work in the NHL: imagine taking an average team, picking six of its games at random, and giving the team an extra goal in each game.
Three of those games will be games it won anyway, so your extra goal doesn't change the result. In another game or two, the team lost by two or more and your goal still doesn't help. Only occasionally do you turn a loss into a win (or overtime loss), and so in the end, your six extra goals only produce roughly two extra points.'
This is what I'm doing when I say 6 goals = 1 win.
Edited by Triumph, 26 March 2014 - 11:24 AM.