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#1381 Neb00rs

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Posted 25 March 2014 - 03:43 PM

I think it's important to note that all 16 playoff teams as of today, have scored more goals than the Devils. However, only 7 playoff teams have allowed less goals. Goaltending hasn't been good for us, but its importance has been over exaggerated. There are so many things that make the argument that 'Marty caused the downfall of the Devils' seem tenuous at best but the best way to put it is as Daniel said, the results are on our side (for both Pete's decision to start Marty when he has and for this not being the team's biggest issue).


Edited by Neb00rs, 25 March 2014 - 03:46 PM.

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#1382 Daniel

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Posted 25 March 2014 - 03:51 PM

And your point is?  My point is that Kovalchuk has been in the lineup and the scoring has been worse.  Almost sounds like there's lots of luck at bottom when it comes to scoring.

 

Worse than when?  I don't know what the GF was last year during the games that he played, but overall the GF this year is less than .1 more than all of last year, when Kovy missed more than 20 percent of the season.  We know the goals for in 2011-2012 was good.  2010-2011 was awful, but I don't know how much of that was dragged down by MacLean era numbers. 


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#1383 Daniel

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Posted 25 March 2014 - 03:54 PM

I think it's important to note that all 16 playoff teams as of today, have scored more goals than the Devils. However, only 7 playoff teams have allowed less goals. Goaltending hasn't been good for us, but its importance has been over exaggerated. There are so many things that make the argument that 'Marty caused the downfall of the Devils' seem tenuous at best but the best way to put it is as Daniel said, the results are on our side (for both Pete's decision to start Marty when he has and for this not being the team's biggest issue).

 

One thing to be careful about is that when certain web page views show goals for/goals against includes shoot out results, that is one goal for when you win a shoot out and one goal against when you lose. 


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#1384 Neb00rs

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Posted 25 March 2014 - 03:59 PM

Taking away the shootout would only make the Devils goaltending/defense look better and their offense worse. Though, I am not sure what you are getting at.


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#1385 Devils731

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Posted 25 March 2014 - 04:08 PM

Taking away the shootout would only make the Devils goaltending/defense look better and their offense worse. Though, I am not sure what you are getting at.

 

In talking about relative numbers, the Devils can only look better, relative to the league, offensively, if we take shootout goals out of the mix.


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#1386 Daniel

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Posted 25 March 2014 - 04:08 PM

Taking away the shootout would only make the Devils goaltending/defense look better and their offense worse. Though, I am not sure what you are getting at.

The idea is that you were saying that all if the teams in the playoffs have more goals for than the Devils. That may not be the case if the numbers you're looking at include a goal for for shoot out wins. I know it gives Minnesota something like 8 extra goals for.

Again though it depends on what web site you're looking at.


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Edited by Daniel, 25 March 2014 - 04:09 PM.

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#1387 Neb00rs

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Posted 25 March 2014 - 06:55 PM

The idea is that you were saying that all if the teams in the playoffs have more goals for than the Devils. That may not be the case if the numbers you're looking at include a goal for for shoot out wins. I know it gives Minnesota something like 8 extra goals for. Again though it depends on what web site you're looking at. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

My numbers included shootout goals. Though I can make an argument they should and it still proves the same point. However, if we remove shootout goals that puts the Kings and the Wild behind the Devils. That's still 14 teams and every playoff team in the East. The GA stats goes from 10 teams better (I misread in my OP) to 9 teams better. So, my point stays about the same. This is a lot simpler though: 6 goals separate the Devils from 29th in league in GF. On the other side, 8 goals separates them from 5th in the league in GA. This is not including shootouts in which case the goaltending-scoring polarization stays pretty much the same.


Edited by Neb00rs, 26 March 2014 - 01:45 AM.

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#1388 Daniel

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Posted 25 March 2014 - 10:24 PM

My numbers included shootout goals. Though I can make an argument they should and it still proves the same point. However, if we remove shootout goals that puts the Kings and the Wild behind the Devils. That's still 14 teams and every playoff team in the East. The GA stats goes from 10 teams better (I misread in my OP to 9 teams better). So, my point stays about the same. This is a lot simpler though: 6 goals separate the Devils from 29th in league in GF. On the other side, 8 goals separates them from 5th in the league in GA. This is not including shootouts in which case the goaltending-scoring polarization stays pretty much the same.


Right, and both Minnesota and LA have gotten superb save percentages from their goalies. If Schneider right now had a 935 save percentage then yeah, I wouldn't say much in response to the outrage. And when Schneider had numbers that were that good, he started seven straight games. But right now he's at .914 to Marty's .902, or about one less goal for every 100 shots, or Marty gives up an extra goal every three or four games, all other things being equal, which they never are. That does not strike me as support for the argument that Marty is the anchor that's weighing the team down.


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#1389 Triumph

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Posted 26 March 2014 - 12:34 AM

Right, and both Minnesota and LA have gotten superb save percentages from their goalies. If Schneider right now had a 935 save percentage then yeah, I wouldn't say much in response to the outrage. And when Schneider had numbers that were that good, he started seven straight games. But right now he's at .914 to Marty's .902, or about one less goal for every 100 shots, or Marty gives up an extra goal every three or four games, all other things being equal, which they never are. That does not strike me as support for the argument that Marty is the anchor that's weighing the team down.


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Schneider was in the .920s and he was still splitting starts, so we can just keep going round and round.  If Schneider has a .914 or lower at the end of this year and at the end of next year, fine, you guys will have been right to a larger degree than you are now.  He won't, though.


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#1390 Neb00rs

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Posted 26 March 2014 - 01:48 AM

Schneider was in the .920s and he was still splitting starts, so we can just keep going round and round.  If Schneider has a .914 or lower at the end of this year and at the end of next year, fine, you guys will have been right to a larger degree than you are now.  He won't, though.

 

Why must Cory have a .914 next year for us to be right that Marty isn't killing the team this year?


Edited by Neb00rs, 26 March 2014 - 01:48 AM.

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#1391 Neb00rs

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Posted 26 March 2014 - 01:56 AM

In talking about relative numbers, the Devils can only look better, relative to the league, offensively, if we take shootout goals out of the mix.

 

My post wasn't stated eloquently but what I meant was that "taking away the shootout can only make the Devils defense look better and because of that it makes the offense seem to be the culprit even more."


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#1392 Triumph

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Posted 26 March 2014 - 10:21 AM

Why must Cory have a .914 next year for us to be right that Marty isn't killing the team this year?

 

Because it implies that Schneider's true talent isn't as wide as the gap between his current career numbers and Brodeur's numbers.  What you're saying is that there's ultimately no difference between the two and that's an insane line of thinking given each player's last 3 seasons - it's cost NJ a win already, it'd be two wins if Cory's true talent is his career SV%.


Edited by Triumph, 26 March 2014 - 10:26 AM.

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#1393 Daniel

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Posted 26 March 2014 - 11:14 AM

Because it implies that Schneider's true talent isn't as wide as the gap between his current career numbers and Brodeur's numbers.  What you're saying is that there's ultimately no difference between the two and that's an insane line of thinking given each player's last 3 seasons - it's cost NJ a win already, it'd be two wins if Cory's true talent is his career SV%.

 

The disconnect is how much it has really cost the Devils this season (and I suppose for the future if you're of the mind that the situation has Schneider disgruntled).  You can go back and look at all the games where Marty played poorly, assume that Schneider wins those games, assume further that Schneider wins all or most of the games that Marty played well in and didn't get a ton of goal support (there were a few of those) and also assume that Marty doesn't win any of the games that Schneider lost, and come up with a number of points that the Devils would otherwise have.  Yes, over long stretches of time it becomes a pointless exercise.  But we're not quite there.  Whatever the reason, Schneider's save percentage has declined this season to the point that the differences between the two goalies in that regard is not particularly dramatic.  It's a pretty safe bet that over the next few season, his save percentage will stablize to something that's at least very good, if not outstanding.  But if we're talking about the relative short term the division of starts between the goaltenders is not the Devils' biggest problem. 


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#1394 Triumph

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Posted 26 March 2014 - 11:23 AM

The disconnect is how much it has really cost the Devils this season (and I suppose for the future if you're of the mind that the situation has Schneider disgruntled).  You can go back and look at all the games where Marty played poorly, assume that Schneider wins those games, assume further that Schneider wins all or most of the games that Marty played well in and didn't get a ton of goal support (there were a few of those) and also assume that Marty doesn't win any of the games that Schneider lost, and come up with a number of points that the Devils would otherwise have.  Yes, over long stretches of time it becomes a pointless exercise.  But we're not quite there.  Whatever the reason, Schneider's save percentage has declined this season to the point that the differences between the two goalies in that regard is not particularly dramatic.  It's a pretty safe bet that over the next few season, his save percentage will stablize to something that's at least very good, if not outstanding.  But if we're talking about the relative short term the division of starts between the goaltenders is not the Devils' biggest problem. 

 

It's their biggest easily fixable problem.  All you have to do is write down a different name.  

 

I'm not going through games and sorting out which is which.  Eric Tulsky already did a great accounting of this:  'Here's a slightly oversimplified version of how it'd work in the NHL: imagine taking an average team, picking six of its games at random, and giving the team an extra goal in each game.

Three of those games will be games it won anyway, so your extra goal doesn't change the result. In another game or two, the team lost by two or more and your goal still doesn't help. Only occasionally do you turn a loss into a win (or overtime loss), and so in the end, your six extra goals only produce roughly two extra points.'

 

This is what I'm doing when I say 6 goals = 1 win.  


Edited by Triumph, 26 March 2014 - 11:24 AM.

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#1395 Neb00rs

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Posted 26 March 2014 - 11:38 AM

Because it implies that Schneider's true talent isn't as wide as the gap between his current career numbers and Brodeur's numbers.  What you're saying is that there's ultimately no difference between the two and that's an insane line of thinking given each player's last 3 seasons - it's cost NJ a win already, it'd be two wins if Cory's true talent is his career SV%.

 

But I'm not talking about talent. I'm simply considering the a posteriori aspects of the situationCory Schneider is much better than Martin Brodeur right now. We know that already. Who doesn't admit that. But what HAS undeniably happened is that both goalies have let in relatively few goals, sufficient enough to provide the team with a chance to win. It can be easily argued that the offense has not done so. Furthermore, wherever random acts of kindness find their source, Marty has come out the winner more than Cory this year. That doesn't mean I don't think Cory gives us the better chance to win, it's just that I believe there hasn't been that monumental of an effect coming from the goalie play this year.

 

I'm using my sense here. If you tell me that we are playing Team A on Thursday and then tell me Cory is starting and ask me what our chances to win are, I would tell you that it depends on how the team performs (aka can they score?). My answer would be the same for Marty. 


Edited by Neb00rs, 26 March 2014 - 11:41 AM.

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#1396 Daniel

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Posted 26 March 2014 - 11:40 AM

It's their biggest easily fixable problem.  All you have to do is write down a different name.  

 

 

Yes, of course.  And virtually all of us are hoping it gets fixed after the season is over, and most of us, myself included, wished it got fixed this season.   (Do you not recall the collective crossing of the fingers that took place at the trade deadline when the rumors of a deal cropped up).  And Lou will deserve all the criticism in the world if he gives Marty even a year's extension, save some ironclad instruction to the coach that Marty is really backup and the hot hand strategy is out the window, which is implausible in its own right.  

 

We're just not there yet.


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#1397 Triumph

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Posted 26 March 2014 - 12:01 PM

But I'm not talking about talent. I'm simply considering the a posteriori aspects of the situationCory Schneider is much better than Martin Brodeur right now. We know that already. Who doesn't admit that. But what HAS undeniably happened is that both goalies have let in relatively few goals, sufficient enough to provide the team with a chance to win. It can be easily argued that the offense has not done so. Furthermore, wherever random acts of kindness find their source, Marty has come out the winner more than Cory this year. That doesn't mean I don't think Cory gives us the better chance to win, it's just that I believe there hasn't been that monumental of an effect coming from the goalie play this year.

 

I'm using my sense here. If you tell me that we are playing Team A on Thursday and then tell me Cory is starting and ask me what our chances to win are, I would tell you that it depends on how the team performs (aka can they score?). My answer would be the same for Marty. 

 

The chances are worse with Brodeur in net.  If you don't see that, you are lost at sea.  You can argue around the point all you want.


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#1398 NJDevs4978

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Posted 26 March 2014 - 12:14 PM

Marty starting tomorrow after three straight losses when Cory has two straight wins...Pete and Lou have definitely jumped the shark.
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#1399 Devil Dan 56

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Posted 26 March 2014 - 12:47 PM

Marty starting tomorrow after three straight losses when Cory has two straight wins...Pete and Lou have definitely jumped the shark.

 

Now Pete's just flipping a coin.


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#1400 DJ Eco

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Posted 26 March 2014 - 12:53 PM

Marty starting tomorrow after three straight losses when Cory has two straight wins...Pete and Lou have definitely jumped the shark.

 

Yup... I thought Marty deserved the starts here and there that have been given to him after the Olympic break. But Cory has the two straight wins and seems to have turned the corner on his slump. This decision makes no sense.

 

If the idea from earlier in the season, to give the goalie who's "winning" more starts, was still in play now; even that logic would lead to Cory getting the start.


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