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GDT: Devils @ Minnesota Parises


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#261 thefiestygoat

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Posted 04 November 2013 - 04:51 AM

I said coming into the season Henrique and Zajac were gonna be the keys to the season. And so far they haven't produced. Henrique hasn't been bad, but he doesn't have anything to show for it points wise. Zajac has been invisible. Those two plus Elias represent the heart of the Devils' forwards. All three need to produce, and so far only Elias has.

So in my opinion, we need to either get another center. We can't just wait for those two to wake up.

I have to disagree re: Zajac vs. Henrique. I feel like Henrique has been much less effective and visible. Though when it comes to this team, there are definitely other guys I'd be more critical of than these 2. For the sake of comparison though:

Standard 5v5:
Zajac: 12 GP 1-3-4, 4 primary points, 1.75 SH/GP, 51.0 FO%
Henrique: 14 GP 4-1-5, 4 primary points, 1.35 SH/GP, 40.2 FO%

It's worth noting they both get about the same ice time, have about the same points, equal primary points, Zajac has a better shot per game rate, and much better faceoff %.

On-ice 5v5:
Zajac: 58.8 CF%, +7.3 CF% Rel, 59.2 FF%, +9.1 FF% Rel, 58.0 SF%, +9.2 SF% Rel
Henrique: 55.3 CF%, +2.2 CF% Rel, 53.3 FF%, +1.5 FF% Rel, 52.4 SF%, +2.3 SF% Rel

Both have respectable numbers but the Devils get more shot attempts and shots on goal when Zajac is on the ice than when Henrique is.

Deployment at Even Strength:
Zajac: 29.9% O Zone Starts, 35.3% N Zone Starts, 34.7% D Zone Starts, 46.3% O/DSt%
Henrique: 34.6% O Zone Starts, 36.8% N Zone Starts, 28.6% D Zone Starts, 54.7 O/DSt%

Zajac doesn't get as favorable zone starts as Henrique but still ends up with better possession and shots numbers. They both usually face tough assignments but Zajac typically tends to draw the tougher ones more often.

Henrique also has an unsustainable 21.1 SH% which will come down while Zajac's unsustainable 4.8 SH% will surely come up.

If Zajac plays like he has so far this year, the points will come. Zajac has also made his teammates better this year evidenced by his WOWY numbers.


Edited by thefiestygoat, 04 November 2013 - 04:52 AM.

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#262 Chimaira_Devil_#9

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Posted 04 November 2013 - 06:15 AM

I am not in the most optimistic of mood this morning so this may be a bit OT and stating the obvious but we just don’t have the personnel to be a contending team.

 

We have just lost too much talent over the years.

 

People stating that they wouldn’t want Zach on this team, or his best days are behind him are deluded. He is exactly the sort of top level player this team is missing.

 

I think in a few years’ time the fact the Lou did not forfeit the 1st round pick the year we went to the finals will go down as one of the worst decisions he has made. Our options to get top end talent into this team are so limited it’s going to be a long time before this team recovers.


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#263 Marv4Life

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Posted 04 November 2013 - 06:20 AM

Well when the lineup looks different every game, building chemistry won't be very easy.  And why do you constantly have to mock the people actually said this?

Because teams have blown entire seasons as early as October.

 

Who has waited too long to patch up the frequent bleeding? Who put together this pathetic display? Who loses its 2 star players 2 years in a row without getting anything worthwhile? Time for him to go already.


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#264 Marshall

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Posted 04 November 2013 - 06:32 AM

 

I think in a few years’ time the fact the Lou did not forfeit the 1st round pick the year we went to the finals will go down as one of the worst decisions he has made. Our options to get top end talent into this team are so limited it’s going to be a long time before this team recovers.

 

Yep. Every loss feels like two with the lack of a draft pick looming.


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#265 Colorado Rockies 1976

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Posted 04 November 2013 - 07:58 AM

I'm honestly just disappointed, not angry, just sad. I didn't expect this team to gel right away or get off to a great start but I didn't expect them to be this bad. Of course Elias and Zajac being out the past 2 games had a huge impact but I still expect more out of the other forwards like Ryder, Brunner, etc. Thankfully the Metro is bad so they are still only 4 points out of a playoff spot and it's early November so there is still time. But I'm having trouble staying optimistic in this group. Some sad/frustrating numbers:

The Devils are now only averaging 24.6 shots per 60 minutes which is 29th in the league. Just 0.2 ahead of the Sabres. The Devils 5v4 shots per 60 minutes rate is 34.3 which is last in the league. The Panthers are 29th with a 36.4 rate. The Devils 5v4 Corsi For% is 82.9% which is 29th. Their Fenwick For% in that situation is a league worst 79.7%.

The Devils 5v5 Score Close Corsi For% is 52.5% which is 9th in the league, their Fenwick For% is 51.4% which is 11th in the league however their shots per 60 minutes is only 25.9 which is 28th in the league and they are shooting at 6.5% which is 22nd in the league. All that damn possession yet they struggle to actually get the puck on goal or past the goaltender.

 

The Devils 2013 (calendar) record: 22-26-14

 

I'm pretty much on the same page as you fiesty...trying to stay optimistic, but that 3-1-1 little burst already feels like it happened weeks ago. 

 

What I think is sad is that, if the Devils continue to look this bad and don't make the playoffs, with the Devils losing their first-rounder for a guy Stefan Matteau...for the first time since Lou became the Devils' GM, he is going to look like a buffoon.  And I think there's a lot of sadness in that.  And I also don't think this ownership will hesitate to show him the door if the Devils bottom-out this year...I don't think they care about what the Devils were before they bought the team, and I'll think they'll grade Lou based on what happens on 2013-14, on their watch.   


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#266 shornick

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Posted 04 November 2013 - 08:35 AM

Last night started out great. Looked like we had found some life but unfortunately once the pp came it all went bye bye. If only we could decline penalties some games we'd be much better off.
Not sure what seems to be keeping this team from sustaining pressure for long portions of the game. We have moments but they are too few and far between. Going into the season I feel like this was more the devils teams of old, team based and need everyone to play hard to compete. I still think that's possible, just have to find the right fire to get under their asses. We have guys who have shown they can score and finish in the past, Jagr, Ryder, Brunner and Elias need to be the guys contributing each game with Zubs, Henrique and Zajac joining in to help balance the load. This isn't going to be a huge scoring team, not a lot of Devils teams ever have been, but they have the power to do it. It's gonna come together.
The D is looking better on the defenseman side. Some forwards need to be a little more responsible and make sure their men are covered. Larsson and Gelinas are really looking comfortable and while still making some bad positional plays here and there, they are learning and will become less of a problem. Fayne only playing 16 and change let's you know he is either hurt or back in DeBoers doghouse. Five d men and that's all he got time wise.
Schneider looked good for first game back, he seems like he will be solid every game but hoping he turns into someone who will be even better than that and wins us some games. With Marty playing better we should be in our end. We need our forwards to get it together.
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#267 2ELIAS6

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Posted 04 November 2013 - 09:03 AM

Because teams have blown entire seasons as early as October.
 
Who has waited too long to patch up the frequent bleeding? Who put together this pathetic display? Who loses its 2 star players 2 years in a row without getting anything worthwhile? Time for him to go already.

this team is not going to make the playoffs again this year lets be honest with each other.
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#268 Triumph

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Posted 04 November 2013 - 09:12 AM

The disappointing thing about a game like last night's is that you need the young players to step up, and other than Larsson (who in my eyes has put together 4 games now where he's looking more like the guy he's going to be in 3 years), and to a lesser degree Gelinas, it just didn't happen at all.  Josefson, Tedenby, Loktionov, to a lesser extent Olesz (though he's not young), Brunner - Loktionov was okay, but still not good enough, and these forwards weren't getting it done.  That 3 year deal to Zubrus is looking fiasco-ish but why shouldn't it - Zubrus had his lowest shot rate as a pro last year.  

 

Team started off real well and faded quick, which is expected for a game like this, but it would've been nice to at least give the Wild something to think about.  The zone entries on the power play are also awful - some day they'll realize that dump ins on the power play, unless executed very well, don't work.


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#269 2ELIAS6

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Posted 04 November 2013 - 09:21 AM

The disappointing thing about a game like last night's is that you need the young players to step up, and other than Larsson (who in my eyes has put together 4 games now where he's looking more like the guy he's going to be in 3 years), and to a lesser degree Gelinas, it just didn't happen at all.  Josefson, Tedenby, Loktionov, to a lesser extent Olesz (though he's not young), Brunner - Loktionov was okay, but still not good enough, and these forwards weren't getting it done.  That 3 year deal to Zubrus is looking fiasco-ish but why shouldn't it - Zubrus had his lowest shot rate as a pro last year.  
 
Team started off real well and faded quick, which is expected for a game like this, but it would've been nice to at least give the Wild something to think about.  The zone entries on the power play are also awful - some day they'll realize that dump ins on the power play, unless executed very well, don't work.

and that is exactly all they do constantly even not on the power play is the dump and chase dump and chase.. i cant stand to watch it anymore.. its like they dont have the skill to carry the puck into the offensive zone so this is how they try to get in
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#270 DJ Eco

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Posted 04 November 2013 - 09:41 AM

This season is mimicking the series of events that happened in Moneyball. Whether or not they go on a record-breaking winning streak, I'll wait and see (and pray).


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#271 MadDog2020

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Posted 04 November 2013 - 10:22 AM

This season is mimicking the series of events that happened in Moneyball. Whether or not they go on a record-breaking winning streak, I'll wait and see (and pray).

I was actually thinking that last night. Not holding my breath on that winning streak though.


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#272 DJ Eco

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Posted 04 November 2013 - 10:47 AM

I was actually thinking that last night. Not holding my breath on that winning streak though.

 

You've got the sort of rag-tag seemingly random signings like Clowe and Ryder and Brunner, with very different areas of strengths. You've got the aging star Jagr coming back for probably a last season (David Justice), relatively young/new coach. A few young kids finally being given a chance (and a guy like Gelinas being a wildcard who's playing pretty well).

 

The only similarity missing is that we haven't turned the page and started winning (yet)...


Edited by DJ Eco, 04 November 2013 - 10:50 AM.

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#273 Devils Pride 26

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Posted 04 November 2013 - 10:57 AM

Not as much as the sabermetrics as Moneyball, but you can make a comparison between on base percentage and corsi/fenwick. This team was assembled of guys who drive the play forward. So far they haven't been able to do that. 


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#274 dmann422

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Posted 04 November 2013 - 11:55 AM

Bad night for me last night devs get blown out and my fantasy football team is up by 24 points going into the night game until Andre Johnson puts up 38 pts and I'm now down by 16.

I still don't worry too much about the draft pick... Fans overrate them so much. They're always a gamble anyway and lou can easily get a first through trade if need be.
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#275 jagknife

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Posted 04 November 2013 - 12:02 PM

lou can easily get a first through trade if need be.

 

For who?

 

And considering this season alone has about a dozen players from this year's draft currently playing in the NHL, they're not as much of a crap-shoot. At least 24 players under 20 have played at least 1 game this season already.


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#276 NJDevs4978

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Posted 04 November 2013 - 12:06 PM

For who?.


Schnieder at the rate it's going :P

Actually they probably will have a high enough second rounder to be able to trade into the first round...but it'll be 25/30, not the top ten pick we're set to give up now.
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#277 dmann422

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Posted 04 November 2013 - 12:10 PM

For who?

And considering this season alone has about a dozen players from this year's draft currently playing in the NHL, they're not as much of a crap-shoot. At least 24 players under 20 have played at least 1 game this season already.

the drop off from whoever we forfeit to Matteau probably will not be as great as you seem to think. And yes we could probably package some veterans with other picks to get a first from a playoff contender.

But I don't think Lou would do that until we are mathematically eliminated. And I still believe we will make a run at some point.
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#278 jagknife

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Posted 04 November 2013 - 12:24 PM

Schnieder at the rate it's going :P

Actually they probably will have a high enough second rounder to be able to trade into the first round...but it'll be 25/30, not the top ten pick we're set to give up now.

 

Schneider's face after that 3rd goal scared me. It was the look of someone who's about to go completely postal because of how atrocious of support he's getting.

 

the drop off from whoever we forfeit to Matteau probably will not be as great as you seem to think. And yes we could probably package some veterans with other picks to get a first from a playoff contender.

But I don't think Lou would do that until we are mathematically eliminated. And I still believe we will make a run at some point.

 

Matteau shouldn't have been a first round pick in the first place.

 

Should this atrocious play continue, we lose a top-10 pick, we'd give up on players of the Monahan/Nischusen[sp?] caliber. Yeah, I'm gonna go out on a limb and say they are/will be better than Matteau.

 

I hope you're right that it won't be significant but with our luck over the past 3 summers, the trend will continue and we'll miss out on a solid player.


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#279 maxpower

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Posted 04 November 2013 - 12:58 PM

Well, if they play at the pace they're going, the dropoff from Matteau to what they gave up, it's going to be vast.   Matteau isn't really remotely ready.   I'd guess if they picked a forward in the top 5 in 2014, that pick would beat him back to the NHL roster.  


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#280 dmann422

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Posted 04 November 2013 - 01:09 PM

If it's a top ten pick it definitely stings more, but like I said I don't think this team (if healthy) is one of the worst 10 teams in the league.

Our roster is not on the level of Calgary buffalo, Florida and others. It's too early to be predicting a top 10 pick, and analysis has shown that after the top 5, the odds of getting a top player tails off dramatically and even more after top 10.
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