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#41 Daniel

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Posted 04 December 2013 - 06:15 PM

Haha, you can't play this card. I gave you ranges of things I thought might happen and you come back 'none of them would've made the Devils significantly better'. Do you understand that the Devils had some of the worst goaltending in the league last year? Literally anything would've been better. And before I get told 'no one could've saw that coming' - their goalies were 40 and each had had sustained stretches of poor play. Severson isn't a certainty even in your hypothetical - he's a 2nd round pick, the best you can do is typically something like Severson, the worst, well I can go down the list of Devils' 2nd round picks who haven't panned out.

Bobrovsky's numbers are skewed some by small samples and how much he played at 3 on 5 in 2011-12. I don't think he's elite, but I don't think he's bad either.


I was never saying the goaltending was great, only, all things considered it wasn't a calamity, like you've been asserting. You threw out a bunch of ok goalies that would have been an upgrade, but would not advance the ball very far, and that assumes you can recreate the world on a spreadsheet. That is not a sign that Lou badly mishandled the goaltending, which is your assertion that started this.


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#42 Derek21

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Posted 05 December 2013 - 02:04 AM

Lundqvist is 31 - he'll be 38 when this deal expires. Which means there's a good chance this is the last contract he ever signs. Makes me feel old all of a sudden, lol. Feels like it was yesterday when he was playing his first year with the Rangers. Might be because his Stanley Cup victories total is exactly the same it was on the day of his debut.

 

Actually, he's completing the last year of his original deal and is a cap hit of $6.875 million. The new deal begins in '13-14 and runs through '20-21. He'll be 39 by the end. There's no guarantee when you invest long-term on goalies. The Rangers overpaid. The current contract was too much from Sather and due to it along with Rask, he was forced to empty Dolan's pockets out of necessity. I would've preferred one less year at that cost. Or $7.5 million over seven years. It is what it is. Even with the cap increasing, I'm more concerned with how it affects their next two offseasons. The roster could look very different.

 

The Devil situation is different. They brought in Schneider for the future with the end in sight for Brodeur. Marty still has it. But the sentiment expressed is right. He should play less. It's a much better situation for them than in the past. They failed to develop Ahonen, who now stars in the KHL and Frazee failed. If memory serves, Kincaid is left. When it comes to goaltending, you have to have a long-term plan. Unless you're the Flyers, who can't develop anyone.


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#43 CarterforPresident

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Posted 05 December 2013 - 02:11 AM

Rangers have a lot to pay for the season. Giriadi is gonna need a pay raise himself. Should be interesting..
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#44 Colorado Rockies 1976

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Posted 05 December 2013 - 07:43 AM

Actually, he's completing the last year of his original deal and is a cap hit of $6.875 million. The new deal begins in '13-14 and runs through '20-21. He'll be 39 by the end. There's no guarantee when you invest long-term on goalies. The Rangers overpaid. The current contract was too much from Sather and due to it along with Rask, he was forced to empty Dolan's pockets out of necessity. I would've preferred one less year at that cost. Or $7.5 million over seven years. It is what it is. Even with the cap increasing, I'm more concerned with how it affects their next two offseasons. The roster could look very different.

 

The Devil situation is different. They brought in Schneider for the future with the end in sight for Brodeur. Marty still has it. But the sentiment expressed is right. He should play less. It's a much better situation for them than in the past. They failed to develop Ahonen, who now stars in the KHL and Frazee failed. If memory serves, Kincaid is left. When it comes to goaltending, you have to have a long-term plan. Unless you're the Flyers, who can't develop anyone.

 

Not really fair, re:  Ahonen...they gave him five years and 178 games in the AHL to show something and to improve.  I'll give you that playing on bad River Rat teams every year probably didn't help him much, but at the same time, NHL team scouts are ALWAYS looking for possible future goalies, so if anyone thought that Ahonen had something to offer, I would think a team would've inquired about him, especially since, by the time Ahonen was playing for Albany, it was obvious that he was not going to play for the Devils as anything more than a rarely-used backup, and wouldn't have cost much of anything to acquire. 

 

It was only one pre-game warm-up session, so I don't want to make too much out of it, but back in 2005-06, when he was called up to be a backup, he looked BAD...just flat-out BAD.  I remember at the time thinking "Man, no wonder this guy has never really gotten a chance."  Great for him that he's doing some good things in the KHL, but he'll be 33 years old in a couple of months, and he's bounced around a lot of leagues in his pro career.  I'm not sure the Devils deserve blame for failing to develop him.


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Even when Marty comes back maybe Larry should put Clemmensen to be on the goal during the shootouts.
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#45 DJ Eco

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Posted 05 December 2013 - 09:50 AM

Rangers have a lot to pay for the season. Giriadi is gonna need a pay raise himself. Should be interesting..

 

I don't think so, his play has taken a hit under the AV system. He would probably be making $1-1.5M more in his extension if Tortorella were still here, just because of the way he was used and relied on. He was the posterboy for the shot-blocking system and suddenly this year is just a mediocre defender that has cost them a couple games by badly timed shot-blocking or screens in front of Henrik..


Edited by DJ Eco, 05 December 2013 - 09:53 AM.

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#46 Triumph

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Posted 05 December 2013 - 10:51 AM

I was never saying the goaltending was great, only, all things considered it wasn't a calamity, like you've been asserting. You threw out a bunch of ok goalies that would have been an upgrade, but would not advance the ball very far, and that assumes you can recreate the world on a spreadsheet. That is not a sign that Lou badly mishandled the goaltending, which is your assertion that started this.


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I mean - you're just deluded.  The Devils have a team SV% of .906, .911, and .894 over the last 3 years.  Since the .894 was in a half year, that probably comes to an average of around .906.  That's close to the worst mark in the NHL over that time.  Just about anything would've advanced the ball.  

 

Of goalies who played 20 games - and I'm being generous to you here because of survivorship bias - Brodeur ranks 54th and Hedberg 50th in SV% out of 74 goalies over the last 3 years.   There are 2 goalies who played 100 games over the last 3 years and had a worse SV% than Brodeur.  Now scorer bias blah blah, indeed, but it's still bad.


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#47 Colorado Rockies 1976

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Posted 05 December 2013 - 11:54 AM

I mean - you're just deluded.  The Devils have a team SV% of .906, .911, and .894 over the last 3 years.  Since the .894 was in a half year, that probably comes to an average of around .906.  That's close to the worst mark in the NHL over that time.  Just about anything would've advanced the ball.  

 

Of goalies who played 20 games - and I'm being generous to you here because of survivorship bias - Brodeur ranks 54th and Hedberg 50th in SV% out of 74 goalies over the last 3 years.   There are 2 goalies who played 100 games over the last 3 years and had a worse SV% than Brodeur.  Now scorer bias blah blah, indeed, but it's still bad.

 

Part of what complicates the picture (and what you're ignoring) is the WAY Brodeur came to his season save%s in 2010-11 and 2011-12 (along with his stature within the organization). 

 

2010-11:  team in front of him plays god-awful hockey for the first half of the season (as does Marty), team picks it up in the second half, Marty plays quite well, second-half play is in line with the previous five post-2005-lockout seasons (he put up a .917 save% overall from '05-'06 to '09-'10).  Easy to point to the first half and just say, "Well, EVERYONE sucked." 

 

2011-12:  looks shaky through the end of January, but then goes on that 50-game rampage that helps the team get to within two games of a Stanley Cup.  Again, performance over the 50 games is about in line with post-lockout Marty from '05-'10.

 

If Marty had started strong and faltered in each of those seasons, then you can rightly go the "Marty is getting older, he's getting fatigued over the course of a full season." route, and maybe in that case, Lou tries harder to find someone better/younger than Hedberg for 2012-13.  But we know how it goes with a deep Cup run...you've got a legend in Marty who everyone wants to see retire as a Devil, he had played very well to close out 2012, he has a great relationship with Lou, and everyone's feeling good in general.  Even if you strip away the emotion, go the forensic Spock route, and say "Yeah, but Marty will still be a year older and can't be expected to keep bouncing back within seasons" (and I can't argue against the pure logic here), you know Lou was never going to look at it that way...not when it came to Marty. 


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[Mark Messier]: A big, bald attention whore with a stupid Easter Island-lookin face. - from who else? DaneykoIsGod!

Even when Marty comes back maybe Larry should put Clemmensen to be on the goal during the shootouts.
Can the coach do that ? Switch the goalies 5 seconds to go in overtime?
- Most priceless quote ever posted on a message board.

Martin Brodeur: THE MOST ALL-TIME WINS!, 12 straight seasons of 30+ wins, 3 Stanley Cups, 4 Vezina Trophies, and zero respect from too many so-called Devils "fans" who are either too young or too bandwagon to remember the much darker days of Sean Burke, Craig Billington, Bob Sauve, Alain Chevrier, and the talented but overwhelmed Chico Resch, among many others.

It's easy to support a great player when he's playing at his very best. It takes a true fan to support that same player during those rare moments and stretches when he's not. Babe Ruth went 0-4 some games, and sometimes Wayne Gretzky was held pointless. There may be such a thing as greatness, but no such thing as absolute perfection every single night.

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#48 NJDevs4978

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Posted 05 December 2013 - 12:04 PM

Marty played what, 130 of the 210 games combined in those years? And Hedberg had a very good 35-40 from '10-12. How were they ever going to appreciably improve the goaltending situation short of shafting Brodeur outright? (and that was never a realistic option)

Edited by NJDevs4978, 05 December 2013 - 12:05 PM.

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#49 Mike Brown

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Posted 05 December 2013 - 12:07 PM

A lot of money, but it needed to be done by them.
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#50 Colorado Rockies 1976

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Posted 05 December 2013 - 12:44 PM

Marty played what, 130 of the 210 games combined in those years? And Hedberg had a very good 35-40 from '10-12. How were they ever going to appreciably improve the goaltending situation short of shafting Brodeur outright? (and that was never a realistic option)

 

Tri will keep pointing to the pure overall numbers and saying the goaltending was awful is '10-'11 and '11-'12, but like I've said, the goaltending showed that it could be good for long stretches during those seasons as well...it didn't hinder the Devils from getting to the Cup Finals (and once they got there, if someone told me Marty would hold the opposition to one regulation goal in four games, I would've happily taken that).  Yes, it stunk in the first half of the 2010-11 campaign, but they were hardly alone in that regard.  It wasn't terribly good for a significant chunk of 2011-12, but the Devils managed to overcome it (and were helped by having a great year in the shootout, in part by the goalies playing well in them, as Tri has acknowledged). 

 

If Lou can really be criticized for anything, it would be for bringing back Hedberg...having two 40+ year-olds in net is a pretty dangerous way to go (Marty was clearly coming back, and I understand why, and support it), but Lou must REALLY have not had any confidence in Frazee at all.  Hedberg had put up a respectable .915 save% in two seasons (61 games) as a Devil as well, so one can see why Lou thought he might be able to squeeze one more solid backup year out of him.   


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THE NHL MUST LOVE THE DEVILS - from who else? A RANGER fan!
[Mark Messier]: A big, bald attention whore with a stupid Easter Island-lookin face. - from who else? DaneykoIsGod!

Even when Marty comes back maybe Larry should put Clemmensen to be on the goal during the shootouts.
Can the coach do that ? Switch the goalies 5 seconds to go in overtime?
- Most priceless quote ever posted on a message board.

Martin Brodeur: THE MOST ALL-TIME WINS!, 12 straight seasons of 30+ wins, 3 Stanley Cups, 4 Vezina Trophies, and zero respect from too many so-called Devils "fans" who are either too young or too bandwagon to remember the much darker days of Sean Burke, Craig Billington, Bob Sauve, Alain Chevrier, and the talented but overwhelmed Chico Resch, among many others.

It's easy to support a great player when he's playing at his very best. It takes a true fan to support that same player during those rare moments and stretches when he's not. Babe Ruth went 0-4 some games, and sometimes Wayne Gretzky was held pointless. There may be such a thing as greatness, but no such thing as absolute perfection every single night.

#30 FOREVER!

20 out of 1,946 njdevs.com members agree: CR1976 is the Most Knowledgable Poster of 2008! Victory is mine...oh yes, victory is mine!

#51 Triumph

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Posted 05 December 2013 - 01:01 PM

Tri will keep pointing to the pure overall numbers and saying the goaltending was awful is '10-'11 and '11-'12, but like I've said, the goaltending showed that it could be good for long stretches during those seasons as well...it didn't hinder the Devils from getting to the Cup Finals (and once they got there, if someone told me Marty would hold the opposition to one regulation goal in four games, I would've happily taken that).  Yes, it stunk in the first half of the 2010-11 campaign, but they were hardly alone in that regard.  It wasn't terribly good for a significant chunk of 2011-12, but the Devils managed to overcome it (and were helped by having a great year in the shootout, in part by the goalies playing well in them, as Tri has acknowledged). 

 

If Lou can really be criticized for anything, it would be for bringing back Hedberg...having two 40+ year-olds in net is a pretty dangerous way to go (Marty was clearly coming back, and I understand why, and support it), but Lou must REALLY have not had any confidence in Frazee at all.  Hedberg had put up a respectable .915 save% in two seasons (61 games) as a Devil as well, so one can see why Lou thought he might be able to squeeze one more solid backup year out of him.   

 

He can be criticized for bringing back Hedberg all 3 times he signed Johan Hedberg.  I understand bringing back Brodeur (although again, 2 years is too long, and he way overpaid, but c'est la vie).  And that's the other issue - when you have a goalie who has played not well in the last 2 years and is old, you should be looking to supplant him.  But who would want to sign as a backup to Brodeur, ever?  He gets all the starts he can and some of the ones he can't, historically.


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#52 Mitico12

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Posted 05 December 2013 - 01:09 PM

He is the face of their franchise.  $8.5 million is a lot in a cap restricted world, however, operationally, that is chump change for the Rangers.  It affects the cap, but certainly not the Ranger's bottom line.

 

This, however, will have a bearing on Callahan.  All remains to be seen.


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#53 Colorado Rockies 1976

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Posted 05 December 2013 - 01:20 PM

He can be criticized for bringing back Hedberg all 3 times he signed Johan Hedberg.  I understand bringing back Brodeur (although again, 2 years is too long, and he way overpaid, but c'est la vie).  And that's the other issue - when you have a goalie who has played not well in the last 2 years and is old, you should be looking to supplant him.  But who would want to sign as a backup to Brodeur, ever?  He gets all the starts he can and some of the ones he can't, historically.

 

 

Hedberg put up a .915 save% combined in '10-'11 and '11-'12.  Played in 61 games, had a 32-19-4 record. 

 

How could the first two times he signed Hedberg be considered a mistake?  Marty was good in '09-'10 and was not really showing signs of declining at that point (.916 save%, same as the previous injury-shortened season), so I can understand why Lou didn't think he needed to bring a potential "supplanter" in at that time (he might've still considered Frazee as part of the future as well)...and Hedberg was not bad overall in '10-'11.  He was at .918 in '11-'12, and again did a solid backup job.  With the way Marty bounced back in '10-'11 and '11-'12, an argument can be made that any potential "supplanter" wouldn't have played any better than Marty did, once he turned things around (though I guess you can argue that he might have gotten less time to turn in around that he ultimately did in '11-'12). 

 

Agree that a two-year deal wasn't ideal, but that's how it goes, and what did you think the Devils were going to sign him to, money-wise?  We all knew this was more of a lifetime achievement, thanks for everything contract, and not based on pure performance value. 


Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976, 05 December 2013 - 01:20 PM.

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THE NHL MUST LOVE THE DEVILS - from who else? A RANGER fan!
[Mark Messier]: A big, bald attention whore with a stupid Easter Island-lookin face. - from who else? DaneykoIsGod!

Even when Marty comes back maybe Larry should put Clemmensen to be on the goal during the shootouts.
Can the coach do that ? Switch the goalies 5 seconds to go in overtime?
- Most priceless quote ever posted on a message board.

Martin Brodeur: THE MOST ALL-TIME WINS!, 12 straight seasons of 30+ wins, 3 Stanley Cups, 4 Vezina Trophies, and zero respect from too many so-called Devils "fans" who are either too young or too bandwagon to remember the much darker days of Sean Burke, Craig Billington, Bob Sauve, Alain Chevrier, and the talented but overwhelmed Chico Resch, among many others.

It's easy to support a great player when he's playing at his very best. It takes a true fan to support that same player during those rare moments and stretches when he's not. Babe Ruth went 0-4 some games, and sometimes Wayne Gretzky was held pointless. There may be such a thing as greatness, but no such thing as absolute perfection every single night.

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20 out of 1,946 njdevs.com members agree: CR1976 is the Most Knowledgable Poster of 2008! Victory is mine...oh yes, victory is mine!

#54 dmann422

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Posted 05 December 2013 - 01:30 PM

He is the face of their franchise. $8.5 million is a lot in a cap restricted world, however, operationally, that is chump change for the Rangers. It affects the cap, but certainly not the Ranger's bottom line.

This, however, will have a bearing on Callahan. All remains to be seen.

I think callahan's value was pretty much set after brown signed his deal. I'd be surprised if it wasn't very similar...
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#55 Daniel

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Posted 05 December 2013 - 01:34 PM

I mean - you're just deluded.  The Devils have a team SV% of .906, .911, and .894 over the last 3 years.  Since the .894 was in a half year, that probably comes to an average of around .906.  That's close to the worst mark in the NHL over that time.  Just about anything would've advanced the ball.  

 

Of goalies who played 20 games - and I'm being generous to you here because of survivorship bias - Brodeur ranks 54th and Hedberg 50th in SV% out of 74 goalies over the last 3 years.   There are 2 goalies who played 100 games over the last 3 years and had a worse SV% than Brodeur.  Now scorer bias blah blah, indeed, but it's still bad.

 

How much further would the Devils have gotten with the goalies your suggesting?  You're telling me they would have won the Cup in 2011-12?  That's wrong.  Are you saying that 2010-2011 wouldn't have been the disaster that it was?  That's wrong.

 

At most, they might have made the playoffs with say Victor Fasth instead of Hedberg?  But that's doubtful.  Ottawa was basically the same hot garbage in the scoring department, and needed Vezina level goaltending to make up for it.  (Notice by the way that Craig Anderson kind of stinks this year, which again puts the lie to this idea that you can plug in save percentage regardless of the circumstances, but that's another story). 

 

Again, the assertion that the goaltending has been a calamity is just wrong.  The Devils problem over the past two years has been goal scoring.  Period.  I know it's not contrarian enough for you, but it also happens to be true. 


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#56 Triumph

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Posted 05 December 2013 - 01:55 PM

How much further would the Devils have gotten with the goalies your suggesting?  You're telling me they would have won the Cup in 2011-12?  That's wrong.  Are you saying that 2010-2011 wouldn't have been the disaster that it was?  That's wrong.

 

At most, they might have made the playoffs with say Victor Fasth instead of Hedberg?  But that's doubtful.  Ottawa was basically the same hot garbage in the scoring department, and needed Vezina level goaltending to make up for it.  (Notice by the way that Craig Anderson kind of stinks this year, which again puts the lie to this idea that you can plug in save percentage regardless of the circumstances, but that's another story). 

 

Again, the assertion that the goaltending has been a calamity is just wrong.  The Devils problem over the past two years has been goal scoring.  Period.  I know it's not contrarian enough for you, but it also happens to be true. 

 

Hahaha.  Where do I start here?  I guess I don't.  You don't have any idea how to sort out hypotheticals.  The Devils' goaltending was bad and it cost them wins.  This is indisputable.  To what extent it cost the Devils wins to separate them from the playoffs 2 of the last 3 years, I don't know, but it most certainly did.  It took a while for the Devils to really go down the tubes that year - maybe with better goaltending the team doesn't give up after Thanksgiving?  Who knows.   Brodeur played excellent in the playoffs after Round 1, and his play was the reason why that series with the Kings went 6 games.  

 

The idea that you can 'plug in save percentage' - whatever that means, I'm not quite sure, but whatever it is, you're wrong about it.  Defensemen have shown no contribution towards save percentage.  Save percentage is largely random year to year - guys like Craig Anderson who are average starters can go anywhere from .930 to .900.  It's unclear whether Anderson's drop in SV% is bad luck or poor play or some combination of both.  Either way, it's been 42 games he's played - that is nothing for a goalie.

 

The Devils absolutely had a problem scoring goals - again, you can't understand that just because I say one thing is wrong with the team that there can't be other things wrong with it.  The thing about goal scoring is that to fix that problem you need 3 or 4 players, and they will usually be expensive, if you can even get them at all.  To fix goaltending you can get just one, and he might not even be that expensive.


Edited by Triumph, 05 December 2013 - 02:04 PM.

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#57 Daniel

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Posted 05 December 2013 - 03:16 PM

Hahaha.  Where do I start here?  I guess I don't.  You don't have any idea how to sort out hypotheticals.  The Devils' goaltending was bad and it cost them wins.  This is indisputable.  To what extent it cost the Devils wins to separate them from the playoffs 2 of the last 3 years, I don't know, but it most certainly did.  It took a while for the Devils to really go down the tubes that year - maybe with better goaltending the team doesn't give up after Thanksgiving?  Who knows.   Brodeur played excellent in the playoffs after Round 1, and his play was the reason why that series with the Kings went 6 games.  

 

The idea that you can 'plug in save percentage' - whatever that means, I'm not quite sure, but whatever it is, you're wrong about it.  Defensemen have shown no contribution towards save percentage.  Save percentage is largely random year to year - guys like Craig Anderson who are average starters can go anywhere from .930 to .900.  It's unclear whether Anderson's drop in SV% is bad luck or poor play or some combination of both.  Either way, it's been 42 games he's played - that is nothing for a goalie.

 

The Devils absolutely had a problem scoring goals - again, you can't understand that just because I say one thing is wrong with the team that there can't be other things wrong with it.  The thing about goal scoring is that to fix that problem you need 3 or 4 players, and they will usually be expensive, if you can even get them at all.  To fix goaltending you can get just one, and he might not even be that expensive.

 

You're avoiding the issue.  How much further would a cheap non-diamond in the rough goalie gotten the Devils?  All you're saying is that it "cost them wins".  That's not the issue, even if it's correct.  It's whether the amount of wins that the goaltending cost them above a realistic alternative kept them from, say, making the playoffs or advancing within the playoffs.  At most, you can say decent goaltending would have gotten them into the playoffs last year.  But again, that's a huge stretch given that it took amazing goaltending to get Ottawa into the playoffs last year with the same abysmal goals for.    It doesn't matter who your goalie is.  When you are one goal above having the fewest amount of goals in a season, you need much more than a decent replacement.  You need Vezina level save percentage.  If you think your GM does a bad job with the goaltending because he didn't manage to get that, then I don't know what to tell you. 


 

 

Agree that a two-year deal wasn't ideal, but that's how it goes, and what did you think the Devils were going to sign him to, money-wise?  We all knew this was more of a lifetime achievement, thanks for everything contract, and not based on pure performance value. 

 

And as you've noted, it hasn't been a calamity.


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#58 dmann422

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Posted 05 December 2013 - 03:55 PM

I think you've both hit a brick wall with this disagreement.... Diverging a bit- it's crazy that the rags only have 3 skaters signed to a contract that extends beyond next year, and one of them is Richards who may get bought out.

They will have a lot of flexibility and that roster could be very different quickly.

But of course it's still sather so I'm not too worried...
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#59 Triumph

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Posted 05 December 2013 - 04:08 PM

You're avoiding the issue.  How much further would a cheap non-diamond in the rough goalie gotten the Devils?  All you're saying is that it "cost them wins".  That's not the issue, even if it's correct.  It's whether the amount of wins that the goaltending cost them above a realistic alternative kept them from, say, making the playoffs or advancing within the playoffs.  At most, you can say decent goaltending would have gotten them into the playoffs last year.  But again, that's a huge stretch given that it took amazing goaltending to get Ottawa into the playoffs last year with the same abysmal goals for.    It doesn't matter who your goalie is.  When you are one goal above having the fewest amount of goals in a season, you need much more than a decent replacement.  You need Vezina level save percentage.  If you think your GM does a bad job with the goaltending because he didn't manage to get that, then I don't know what to tell you. 

 

Like I said, you don't know how hypotheticals work.  We're done here.


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#60 Mike Brown

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Posted 05 December 2013 - 08:01 PM

He is the face of their franchise.  $8.5 million is a lot in a cap restricted world, however, operationally, that is chump change for the Rangers.  It affects the cap, but certainly not the Ranger's bottom line.

 

This, however, will have a bearing on Callahan.  All remains to be seen.

 

A lot of Rags fans are starting to really hate Callahan.


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