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Discuss - Most Likely Trade Deadline Targets


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#321 CarpathianForest

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Posted 09 February 2014 - 10:58 PM

We're not gonna get a 1st.  I doubt even Lou can pull that off.  Maybe a conditional first, but not a regular 1st for Jagr.  If we make a trade, we're improving the team.  Hence it gives us a better chance at achieving that 15-6-2 record.

 

Regarding those 3, you can always trade the negotiating rights of those players.

 

Teams aren't going to trade for negotiating rights on 3 old, pending UFAs


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#322 Mike Brown

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Posted 09 February 2014 - 11:03 PM

Teams aren't going to trade for negotiating rights on 3 old, pending UFAs

 

I doubt anybody would trade for old UFA's to begin with.  I just don't think it's justifiable to trade Jagr when we're only 3 points back, and we won't get much for him.  Of course we still have to see where we're at March 5.


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#323 CarpathianForest

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Posted 09 February 2014 - 11:07 PM

I doubt anybody would trade for old UFA's to begin with.  I just don't think it's justifiable to trade Jagr when we're only 3 points back, and we won't get much for him.  Of course we still have to see where we're at March 5.

 

You never know. As you yourself said this is a weak draft. One of the higher seeded playoff bound teams might be willing to part with a high first for his presence on a team. He's put up nearly 50 points on an offensively challenged Devils team.


Edited by CarpathianForest, 09 February 2014 - 11:09 PM.

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#324 thefiestygoat

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Posted 09 February 2014 - 11:09 PM

The thing is, we don't know if this team is unlikely to make the playoffs, when a lot of things point in the opposite direction.

 

You can certainly sell their negotiating rights at the draft or prior to.

I admire your optimism but I just can't get excited about this team.

 

Right now the Devils are 24th in the league. In the East there are 4 teams not in the playoffs that are ahead of the Devils. 2 of those teams have at least a game in hand on the Devils so the 3 point gap is misleading. The Devils could end up going on a run and still miss the playoffs with all the 3 point games that are bound to happen with these other teams.

Sports Club Stats has the Devils with a 33.1% chance to make the playoffs. Hockey Reference has the Devils odds at 22.6%. Playoff Status has the Devils with a 22% chance to make the playoffs.

 

Has Lou ever sold someones rights? I honestly can't think of it happening off the top of my head. Also, I seriously doubt any team would even bother trading for the rights to any of those guys anyway. Hypothetically, even if some team out there was willing to trade for them, you're not going to get nearly as much for the rights to those 3 players compared to what teams would give up to get a guy like Jagr for the playoff run.


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#325 thefiestygoat

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Posted 09 February 2014 - 11:12 PM

I do not see Jagr being moved or even wanting to. Maybe that's just me? But he's bene moved so much over the past few years, no stability on two teams a year? There's a real chance he's tired of that and doesn't wanna go through it all over again.

With the way Jagr has bounced around since coming back, I really think he's been trying to get one last Cup. I don't see why he wouldn't want to move to a contender, especially since it would only be for a handful of months.


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#326 Sneax

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Posted 09 February 2014 - 11:16 PM

With the way Jagr has bounced around since coming back, I really think he's been trying to get one last Cup. I don't see why he wouldn't want to move to a contender, especially since it would only be for a handful of months.

 

I think jagr wants to play, his days are numbered despite his current form and I'm sure he's trying to cherish the time he has left. NJ gives him the chance to play major minutes. He won't get that most else where, especially not on a contender.


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#327 Mike Brown

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Posted 09 February 2014 - 11:18 PM

I'm not being optimi

 

I admire your optimism but I just can't get excited about this team.

 

Right now the Devils are 24th in the league. In the East there are 4 teams not in the playoffs that are ahead of the Devils. 2 of those teams have at least a game in hand on the Devils so the 3 point gap is misleading. The Devils could end up going on a run and still miss the playoffs with all the 3 point games that are bound to happen with these other teams.

Sports Club Stats has the Devils with a 33.1% chance to make the playoffs. Hockey Reference has the Devils odds at 22.6%. Playoff Status has the Devils with a 22% chance to make the playoffs.

 

Has Lou ever sold someones rights? I honestly can't think of it happening off the top of my head. Also, I seriously doubt any team would even bother trading for the rights to any of those guys anyway. Hypothetically, even if some team out there was willing to trade for them, you're not going to get nearly as much for the rights to those 3 players compared to what teams would give up to get a guy like Jagr for the playoff run.

 

It has nothing to do with optimism.  It has everything to do with facts.

 

1. We play most of our games at home.

2. We have a light schedule.

3. We're currently 3 points out.

4. Zidlicky and Brodeur have NTC's, and Jagr might as well have one.

5. It's a weak draft.


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#328 CarpathianForest

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Posted 09 February 2014 - 11:20 PM

I'm not being optimi

 

 

It has nothing to do with optimism.  It has everything to do with facts.

 

1. We play most of our games at home.

2. We have a light schedule.

3. We're currently 3 points out.

4. Zidlicky and Brodeur have NTC's, and Jagr might as well have one.

5. It's a weak draft.

 

Light schedule my foot. We play NYI, SJS, CBJ and DET when we get back from break. We could very well be done after we play those teams.


Edited by CarpathianForest, 09 February 2014 - 11:20 PM.

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#329 thefiestygoat

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Posted 09 February 2014 - 11:20 PM

I think jagr wants to play, his days are numbered despite his current form and I'm sure he's trying to cherish the time he has left. NJ gives him the chance to play major minutes. He won't get that most else where, especially not on a contender.

If it's about playing and cherishing the time he has left then why would he want to stay in NJ where he will probably only get to play 23 more games? He could go to a contender, get those 23 games + playoff games. He averaged 18:55 playing for Boston during their playoff run last year. I'm sure he'd get enough minutes to stay happy. He's averaging 19:12 for NJ right now so even if he did go down to 17-18 minutes a night somewhere else, the ability to play in more games would more than make up for that.


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#330 thefiestygoat

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Posted 09 February 2014 - 11:25 PM

I'm not being optimi

 

 

It has nothing to do with optimism.  It has everything to do with facts.

 

1. We play most of our games at home.

2. We have a light schedule.

3. We're currently 3 points out.

4. Zidlicky and Brodeur have NTC's, and Jagr might as well have one.

5. It's a weak draft.

Please don't take offense to this because I don't mean this is a negative way or as an insult, but I think you are being blindly optimistic. You're a great fan for believing in them but I think you are drinking Lou's kool-aid.

 

Devils are still 3 points back and other teams have games in hand on them. That's huge. I don't think this draft is as weak as you are making it seem. The Devils don't have a lot of draft picks over the next 2 years. They have one of the worst prospect pools in the NHL. Adding more picks and or prospects in trades certainly can't hurt.

 

NTC's mean nothing if Lou decides to sell and approaches the players about a move elsewhere. In Brodeur's case it seems he may actually request a move.


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#331 Devil Dan 56

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Posted 09 February 2014 - 11:29 PM

We're not gonna get a 1st.  I doubt even Lou can pull that off.  Maybe a conditional first, but not a regular 1st for Jagr.  If we make a trade, we're improving the team.  Hence it gives us a better chance at achieving that 15-6-2 record.

 

Regarding those 3, you can always trade the negotiating rights of those players.

 

If it's a weak draft, a team may be willing to give up a first. 

 

And if you make a trade as a buyer, you are ATTEMPTING to improve the team. There's no guarantee that it works. It's going to take more than a rental LW to make this team start winning. 

 

As for negotiating rights, you'd rather get a 6th for negotiating rights (which rarely happens) then get a better pick in early March in a hope-and-prayer attempt at suddenly winning and jumping 5 teams? You have to realize how improbable that all is.


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#332 Mike Brown

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Posted 09 February 2014 - 11:51 PM

Please don't take offense to this because I don't mean this is a negative way or as an insult, but I think you are being blindly optimistic. You're a great fan for believing in them but I think you are drinking Lou's kool-aid.

 

Devils are still 3 points back and other teams have games in hand on them. That's huge. I don't think this draft is as weak as you are making it seem. The Devils don't have a lot of draft picks over the next 2 years. They have one of the worst prospect pools in the NHL. Adding more picks and or prospects in trades certainly can't hurt.

 

NTC's mean nothing if Lou decides to sell and approaches the players about a move elsewhere. In Brodeur's case it seems he may actually request a move.

 

I personally don't think this team is going to be in the playoffs.  If that's being optimistic, I'd seriously hate what being pessimistic is like.

 

I'm simply stating my case why selling isn't worth doing since we are very much in the race.

 

The games in hand thing is irrelevant.  Every team plays 82 games.  The jumping over teams thing is also irrelevant.  It only takes one win to jump over two them right now.  By the end of March, only 2 or 3 of those teams will still be contending if that.  Those teams all play each other at some point, and the logjam will break apart.


Light schedule my foot. We play NYI, SJS, CBJ and DET when we get back from break. We could very well be done after we play those teams.

 

The Islanders suck.  The Blue Jackets are like us.  Detroit is also like us.  San Jose is the only good team in that bunch right there.


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#333 thefiestygoat

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Posted 09 February 2014 - 11:58 PM

I personally don't think this team is going to be in the playoffs.  If that's being optimistic, I'd seriously hate what being pessimistic is like.

 

I'm simply stating my case why selling isn't worth doing since we are very much in the race.

 

The games in hand thing is irrelevant.  Every team plays 82 games.  The jumping over teams thing is also irrelevant.  It only takes one win to jump over two them right now.  By the end of March, only 2 or 3 of those teams will still be contending if that.  Those teams all play each other at some point, and the logjam will break apart.


 

The Islanders suck.  The Blue Jackets are like us.  Detroit is also like us.  San Jose is the only good team in that bunch right there.

I guess I misunderstood then. I guess then as long as this team has a 1% chance of making the playoffs, you wouldn't want to sell then?


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#334 Mike Brown

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Posted 10 February 2014 - 12:00 AM

I guess I misunderstood then. I guess then as long as this team has a 1% chance of making the playoffs, you wouldn't want to sell then?

 

I don't want to sell if we're only 2 wins away from being in.  A 43% chance at getting in is too high for me to want to sell.  That's for sure.


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#335 CarterforPresident

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Posted 10 February 2014 - 12:06 AM

It's not 43% chance of getting in, its down to 33%

I don't want to sell if we're only 2 wins away from being in. A 43% chance at getting in is too high for me to want to sell. That's for sure.


Edited by CarterforPresident, 10 February 2014 - 12:06 AM.

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#336 Mike Brown

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Posted 10 February 2014 - 12:45 AM

It's not 43% chance of getting in, its down to 33%

 

http://www.sportsclu...ts.com/NHL.html


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#337 Devil Dan 56

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Posted 10 February 2014 - 12:56 AM

http://www.sportsclu...ts.com/NHL.html


That says 33%.
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#338 Mike Brown

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Posted 10 February 2014 - 01:28 AM

That says 33%.

 

EDIT: nvm you're right.

 

Despite that, are we not still only 3 points back?


Edited by Mike Brown, 10 February 2014 - 01:32 AM.

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#339 Devil Dan 56

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Posted 10 February 2014 - 07:56 AM

EDIT: nvm you're right.

 

Despite that, are we not still only 3 points back?

 

We are. That's not really the issue. The issue is that Columbus, Ottawa, and Washington are one point back, and Carolina is also 3 points back with 2 games in hand on us. Every one of those teams is winning more than the Devils going into the break. 


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#340 Colorado Rockies 1976

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Posted 10 February 2014 - 07:57 AM

EDIT: nvm you're right.

 

Despite that, are we not still only 3 points back?

 

Everytime you do that, you're only telling part of the story.  Stop ignoring all of the other teams that are a part of this, or anything else that doesn't paint as rosy of a picture as you'd like.  The % to get in is 33 for a reason, and the number of teams involved and the fact that other teams do have games ahead of them play a factor in that percentage.     

 

We'll know by the deadline what the Devils should do.  Originally I said the Devils needed to go 4-1-1 in the six games before the trade deadline.  So far they're 1-1 in those games.  I'll back off a little on that prediction...maybe 3-1-0 or 2-0-2 (4-2-0 or 3-1-2) would be OK.  But I'm not sure how much of a buying endorsement I can give them if they don't come away with at least 6 points over the next four games. 

 

I've said the Devils need to go 12-6-6 to have a good shot to get in (basically repeat what they did in the last 25 games before the loss against the Caps).  Now it's 12-5-6 to close out the season.

 

If they go 3-1-0 in the next four, that's 9-4-6 to close out the year to get to 91 points.  It's 10-5-4 if they go 2-0-2.  Based on the Devils' record in Cory's last 14 starts (7-3-4), that's doable, but it's all predicated on Cory continuing to provide the best puck-stopping in the league, and either Marty or whoever will back up Cory approximating what Cory's doing when he has to be rested (I'm guessing at this point, PDB might just start Cory every game until he has the kind of game that shows he's temporarily spent).  I do believe that the scoring will get better, but I don't know by how much.

 

2-2-0 in their next 4 pre deadline, that means 10-3-6, 11-4-4, or 12-5-2 to close out for 91.  That also means they would have gone 6-6-3 in the 15 games leading up to the deadline.  There has to be a top-end somewhere, and I can't make a case for the Devils doing any better some combo that gives them 24 points over the season's final 19 games.  I hate to bail on a potential playoff berth, especially with Cory's situation being what it is, but if the Devils aren't in reasonable position to get to 91 points, with 24 points in 19 games after the deadline being the most I can ask for, then they should sell.          


Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976, 10 February 2014 - 08:59 AM.

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