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Two Interesting Articles on Deboer


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#41 SMantzas

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Posted 04 February 2014 - 01:26 PM


Top players get a ton of shots. That is why they score. This was just discussed today on twitter as so many people were going on about how good Kessel's shot is. He is secnd in the league in goals with the 2nd most shots.

And a smart individual pointed out:

45]
Retweeted by James Mirtle

45]
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Kessel is a great example of why shot quantity is so important: even w/ his skill he still only shoots ~1% better than avg for a forward.




This is a good post.

It's counter-intuitive but shooting isn't necessarily a skill. Obviously some people have better shots than others, but quantity is the number that you should be focusing on. When you throw stuff on net you can beat a goalie cleanly, score on a deflection, create a rebound, etc.
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#42 Devil Dan 56

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Posted 04 February 2014 - 01:28 PM

This is a good post.

It's counter-intuitive but shooting isn't necessarily a skill. Obviously some people have better shots than others, but quantity is the number that you should be focusing on. When you throw stuff on net you can beat a goalie cleanly, score on a deflection, create a rebound, etc.

 

Good point. Look at Clarkson in his 30 goal year. They guy would shoot from the bench that year if they'd let him.


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#43 Marshall

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Posted 04 February 2014 - 01:28 PM

you completely understood what i mean come on now dont nitpick.

 

lets put it this way. You somehow have to get bitchslaped 20 times by one of 2 groups. A group a 8 years old girls or by a group of UFC fighters. Who do you pick?

 

Our shooting "quality" is "8 years old girls worthy" really. We're among the worst scoring team in the league, there's no other reasons for that than we're lacking scoring skills and us outshooting another team by 10 shots isnt compensating either from that lack.

 

So if we translate your example* into hockey, that makes UFC fighters NHL'ers and 8 y-o girls into...well, peewee hockey players. There are no peewee players in the NHL. The NHL doesn't work in the way your example describes it. There are good and bad shooters in the NHL, but they are still by and large the best in the world. 8 y-o girls throw weaker punches than the worst NHLer shoots.

 

The problem is the shooters and it isn't. Their shots are fine - if they weren't they'd have terrible percentages at this point in the season (they don't). The problem is that they don't generate enough shots. 

 

*or should I just ignore your examples and nod my head? That's usually how you want it played.


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#44 SterioDesign

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Posted 04 February 2014 - 01:30 PM

 

Top players get a ton of shots. That is why they score. This was just discussed today on twitter as so many people were going on about how good Kessel's shot is. He is secnd in the league in goals with the 2nd most shots.

 

And a smart individual pointed out:

 

 Retweeted by James Mirtle

Kessel is a great example of why shot quantity is so important: even w/ his skill he still only shoots ~1% better than avg for a forward.

 

 

 

 

 

 

yeah but it goes hand in hand... he can put it in. Put Kessel instead of Gionta on every single breakaway he had this year. Im sure there's a few extra goals right there. You're not a "good player" because you shot a lot, you're a good player cause you bury a good amount of them. Also those top players are playing top minutes AND PP... so obviously they'll have more shots cause they have more ice time. Again, they are top players cause they deserve it and can bury their chances. Honestly how many of our guys would be top line on another above average team?

 

Also with kessel's speed he's a monster off the rush and he creates his own chances. No one on the devils are even close to do what he does with his speed... mayyyyyyybe Brunner.


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#45 SMantzas

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Posted 04 February 2014 - 01:35 PM

yeah but it goes hand in hand... he can put it in. Put Kessel instead of Gionta on every single breakaway he had this year. Im sure there's a few extra goals right there. You're not a "good player" because you shot a lot, you're a good player cause you bury a good amount of them. Also those top players are playing top minutes AND PP... so obviously they'll have more shots cause they have more ice time. Again, they are top players cause they deserve it and can bury their chances. Honestly how many of our guys would be top line on another above average team?

Also with kessel's speed he's a monster off the rush and he creates his own chances. No one on the devils are even close to do what he does with his speed... mayyyyyyybe Brunner.


Players who shoot a lot usually get shots because they are good players. If you look at the leaders for SOG, you usually see players like Ovechkin, Parise, Neal, etc. They bury their chances because they get more
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#46 SterioDesign

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Posted 04 February 2014 - 01:36 PM

So if we translate your example* into hockey, that makes UFC fighters NHL'ers and 8 y-o girls into...well, peewee hockey players. There are no peewee players in the NHL. The NHL doesn't work in the way your example describes it. There are good and bad shooters in the NHL, but they are still by and large the best in the world. 8 y-o girls throw weaker punches than the worst NHLer shoots.

 

The problem is the shooters and it isn't. Their shots are fine - if they weren't they'd have terrible percentages at this point in the season (they don't). The problem is that they don't generate enough shots. 

 

*or should I just ignore your examples and nod my head? That's usually how you want it played.

 

yeah cause of course i didnt exaggerate my example just to make it stand out right? you have to take it like literally to make it sound wrong.

 

how many games did we lose that we only allowed like 15 shots or below and got near 25 shots and lost by a goal or in SO ? How many games did the leafs won in the last 2 years while being outshot by like 20 goals? Why? cause they have skilled players who can put it eventhough they dont take generate as much shots, also while their goalie is doing the job too.

 

im not even sure what youre trying to prove here. My point is that we don't have scorers who can get the job done on a regular basis. Our personal is the problem, not the amount of shots we're taking. Teams with good players are still winning games simply by putting it in at the right time.


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#47 devils102

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Posted 04 February 2014 - 01:48 PM

I agree on the quality of the articles not being the best.

 

I feel like the treatment of the young players reminds me of Brent Sutter when he was a coach. It seemed like our young guys (I think it was guys like Vrana and Bergfors at the time) would play 5 minutes with Cam Janssen and that was it.

 

I wonder if this is an CHL thing? In juniors your young players are 15-16 year olds playing against 19-20 year olds. The players need time to physically grow more than anything. It's not as unusual for a guy to sit on the fourth line for a year and then turn in a much improved season the next year when he's bigger. In the NHL, guys need confidence and to improve their skills, they're as big as they're going to get.

 

Maybe some of these coaches, despite coming from a "developmental" league, really aren't that good at actually developing players?

 

 

Even if it's not Deboer's strength as a coach, I think it's a stretch to say he's ruined anyone. Interview Adam Henrique or Jon Merrill in two years and you'll probably hear the opposite.


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#48 SterioDesign

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Posted 04 February 2014 - 01:49 PM

Players who shoot a lot usually get shots because they are good players. If you look at the leaders for SOG, you usually see players like Ovechkin, Parise, Neal, etc. They bury their chances because they get more

 

and i say they bury their chances cause they are skilled players with a better nose for the net. Like i said it all goes hand in hand. 

 

to say "They bury their chances because they get more" straight like that is absolutely wrong. 

 

Just look at the shootouts or breakaways or a guy in a good shooting position in front of the net, put James Neal for 10 shots and then put 

Rinaldo for another 10... repeat the exercise 3-4 times. Tell me what you're expecting in results there. Cause what you're saying is that it should be pretty tight cause well they have the same amount of shots.


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#49 SMantzas

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Posted 04 February 2014 - 01:56 PM

and i say they bury their chances cause they are skilled players with a better nose for the net. Like i said it all goes hand in hand.

to say "They bury their chances because they get more" straight like that is absolutely wrong.

Just look at the shootouts or breakaways or a guy in a good shooting position in front of the net, put James Neal for 10 shots and then put
Rinaldo for another 10... repeat the exercise 3-4 times. Tell me what you're expecting in results there. Cause what you're saying is that it should be pretty tight cause well they have the same amount of shots.


It is wrong though. If they were better at burying their chances, they'd have higher shooting percentages
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#50 Daniel

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Posted 04 February 2014 - 02:19 PM

Players who shoot a lot usually get shots because they are good players. If you look at the leaders for SOG, you usually see players like Ovechkin, Parise, Neal, etc. They bury their chances because they get more

 

One exception (might be others) is Stamkos.  His career shooting percentage is something like 17 percent, and it got over 20 percent in one season. 

 

Just as an aside, I think more receptive to the idea of stressing SOG if it weren't for those yahoos in the crowd who indiscriminately yell "shoot!". 


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#51 EdgeControl

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Posted 04 February 2014 - 03:12 PM

One exception (might be others) is Stamkos.  His career shooting percentage is something like 17 percent, and it got over 20 percent in one season. 

 

Just as an aside, I think more receptive to the idea of stressing SOG if it weren't for those yahoos in the crowd who indiscriminately yell "shoot!". 

when ryder got that breakaway in OT against the preds , I was screaming "shoot it" at the TV. Id much prefer he snipe then juke.    I find myself screaming it at jagr once or twice a game


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#52 coldply123

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Posted 04 February 2014 - 05:32 PM

This!

NJ played as well as you can vs Colorado.
You win 8/10 games like that...But you lose 2/10.

Hockey has a large luck component and that's the way it goes.


That's too simplistic an approach. If you give me 10 games against the Avs I expect us to lose eight of them and not because of luck.

Puck luck is the biggest farce.
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#53 Devlin

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Posted 04 February 2014 - 06:04 PM

Found these over at HF Boards:

DeBoer, The Tyrant And Locker Room Terror Nobody Sees

Florida Panthers Fire Head Coach Peter DeBoer After 2010-2011 Season

The first talks about how he treats young players. One of my biggest complaints is how he continues to bury the young guys in favor of the old vets.

The second talks about his firing from the Panthers. Ironically they had enough with his constant line juggling and inability to hold leads.

Talk about dead on articles, I stayed quiet trying to give this coach a chance but it's time to cut ties.

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Edited by Devlin, 04 February 2014 - 06:05 PM.

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#54 Mike Brown

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Posted 04 February 2014 - 06:36 PM

And how many times have the opposition pulled the goalie? You can't just throw out "given up goals" without context. The success ratio is something like 30% when pulling the goalie. 

 

Is that the success ratio for this season?


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#55 Satans Hockey

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Posted 04 February 2014 - 07:18 PM

The problem is a lot of these players are medicore to down right bad. Its not all Petes fault even though I'm rather sick of him myself.

Id love to see so many of these guys never in a Devils jersey again.
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#56 thecoffeecake

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Posted 04 February 2014 - 11:45 PM

Bleacherrepport must be the least credible sports writing I've ever read. Most of the articles on there are strictly opinion pieces with no foundation. I'm not commenting on this article specifically, because I didn't read it. Nothing Bleacherreport publishes should ever be taken seriously.


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#57 95Crash

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Posted 05 February 2014 - 12:33 AM

The last two nights sucked, but at the same time, it's really hard to put them entirely on PDB:

 

Against the Preds, Jagr does exactly what you'd want him to, Preds get an incredibly fortunate bounce.

Against the Avs...three friggin' posts.  Team on ice unfortunately gets caught and gassed at the worst possible time.    

 

I'm not sure what a new coach can do with what he has to work with.  It feels like it will be change for change's sake.  Does the next coach get the guys who don't score for 10 games or more at a time to start scoring more consistently?       

 

I agree. Pete has them playing hard almost every game. As a few fans here have been saying, they just don't have the scorers.

 

From TG's blog:

 

“It’s frustrating, Devils coach Pete DeBoer said. “It seems that’s kind of what we’re dealing with right now. It hasn’t been an issues all year and then all the sudden the last three games we’ve had an issue in the last minute. Tonight for me the story is we have to find a way to get a second and third goal. We got one goal out of our fourth line, which is a bonus goal, and enough chances to get five.

 

“If you let anybody hang around in this league long enough bad things happen and that’s the story lately.”

 

DeBoer is correct in that blowing leads late is only a recent trend. The Devils had given up the tying goal with the opponent’s goalie pulled only twice all season before last Thursday in Dallas – on Dec. 4 vs. Montreal (4-3 shootout loss) and Dec. 7 vs. the Rangers (4-3 overtime win)

 

“I think if we could find a way to generate another goal a night we’d be a very good team,” he said. “We’re 60 games in and we have not found that yet. That’s the difference. It’s a race to three goals in this league to win. That’s the formula for almost everybody and we don’t get there enough. And it’s not a lack of effort, it’s not lack of generating chances. We generated enough to score five goals. We need to finish those. Our guys who are supposed to score have to score.

 

“This time of year you can’t have multiple guys with double digit games without goals.”

 

DeBoer was clearly referring to Michael Ryder, who has no goals in 11 games now. I guess he also could have been referring to Steve Bernier, who hasn’t scored in 28 games, or Andrei Loktionov, who has no goals in his last 14 contests. No other Devils forwards who played tonight has gone more than six games without a goal.

 

http://blogs.northje...ing_cammalleri/


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#58 Jerseydevils0324

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Posted 05 February 2014 - 02:33 AM

It really sucks losing Larry Robinson. I feel he was a player's coach, which is ideal for a team with a ton of promising defense prospects. You want young players to learn from their mistakes, but to see that young players in the past under Deboer played scared, is awful. You want an assistant like Larry, who is insightful and helps a young guy shake off a mistake, and not shake in fear of being benched or sent down.

I remember many times when Larry was here and they'd cut to the bench, you would see Larry lean over a player's shoulder and explain things to them. You need that kind of coach on your staff. I do not see anybody currently doing that as often as Larry did or even Oatesy. It is good to have a coach that is willing to take a player under his wing and show him the ropes, not punish and regress them. Larry seemed to have a special bond with certain players and he seems like a genuine guy.


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#59 Devlin

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Posted 05 February 2014 - 05:13 AM

It really sucks losing Larry Robinson. I feel he was a player's coach, which is ideal for a team with a ton of promising defense prospects. You want young players to learn from their mistakes, but to see that young players in the past under Deboer played scared, is awful. You want an assistant like Larry, who is insightful and helps a young guy shake off a mistake, and not shake in fear of being benched or sent down.


Spot on...I remember when they benched Larsson a long time back and when asked what the coaches told him to improve on he said something along lines of "I'm not sure, they never told me what to improve on".

Really?? This is how our coaching staff teaches our young players. I kept that interview in the back of my mind wondering if something else was going to happen.

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Edited by Devlin, 05 February 2014 - 05:55 AM.

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#60 Colorado Rockies 1976

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Posted 05 February 2014 - 08:14 AM

I agree. Pete has them playing hard almost every game. As a few fans here have been saying, they just don't have the scorers.

 

Our guys who are supposed to score have to score.

 

“This time of year you can’t have multiple guys with double digit games without goals.”

 

DeBoer was clearly referring to Michael Ryder, who has no goals in 11 games now. I guess he also could have been referring to Steve Bernier, who hasn’t scored in 28 games, or Andrei Loktionov, who has no goals in his last 14 contests. No other Devils forwards who played tonight has gone more than six games without a goal.

 

http://blogs.northje...ing_cammalleri/

 

I think the guys who PDB is probably most frustrated with are Brunner and Ryder.  Both are prone to LONG periods of scoring invisibility, and they don't do enough otherwise to disappear for as long as they do.  Can't expect Bernier to score much, really.   

 

re:  Loktionov, NJ is just finding out what LA already knew...that he's not some gem who didn't get a fair chance.  He's simply very meh.  Maybe he has a decent career in KHL.

 

Speaking of the KHL, Kovalchuk has been pretty good, but far from great, really:  44 GP, 16 G, 24 A, 40 Pts, +1, 9.6 shooting%.  Fine if he missed his homeland and decided that he didn't want to live in the US anymore, but I also think he knew he soon wasn't going to be anywhere near the player he had been earlier, and knew he'd be better off playing against lesser competition.  I only bring this up because I don't think Kovy as he is now would've have been as much of a help to this year's team as some might think (and I think Kovy knows it too). 


Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976, 05 February 2014 - 08:15 AM.

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