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3 Ways The Devils Have Disappointed (You) at the Break


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#121 Daniel

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Posted 18 February 2014 - 02:03 PM

Yeah, Schneider alone probably guarantees at least 70 points in today's NHL, provided you have some decent NHLers on the roster...you'd have to have literally nothing else on the ice to do worse.  The days of the '92-'93 Sharks (11 wins) kind of futility are long over.    

 

The other problem of course is that it's pretty hard to get teams to purposely tank or underperform, unless they're built for that specific purpose, which takes a serious "commitment" from the franchise (suffering through leaner attendance, etc).  Hector Marini said when he first became a Devil that it was very clear the team was building completely from scratch (in Colorado, the gameplan seem to change every week), and that guys like him and many of his teammates (minimal upside-types) were being brought in to be little more than warm bodies that would be replaced with younger, better bodies as the team built from within (even though guys like Marini were actually fairly young themselves).  No way a guy like Schneider would ever want to suffer through even one season of that, let alone two or more. 

 

"Tank" was probably the wrong word.  Basically what I meant is that an option would be to be fairly quiet this offseason, and not bother with any of the short term fixes that you can use to plug up an otherwise leaky ship, guys like Ryder and Brunner come to mind.  So you'd be running with a talented, but young defensive group, and an offense could be even more anemic than it is this year.  Even with Schneider, that could be a pretty ugly year in the standings. 


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#122 Triumph

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Posted 18 February 2014 - 02:16 PM

"Tank" was probably the wrong word.  Basically what I meant is that an option would be to be fairly quiet this offseason, and not bother with any of the short term fixes that you can use to plug up an otherwise leaky ship, guys like Ryder and Brunner come to mind.  So you'd be running with a talented, but young defensive group, and an offense could be even more anemic than it is this year.  Even with Schneider, that could be a pretty ugly year in the standings. 

 

I don't think you realize how bad a team like Buffalo or Calgary are.


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#123 lazer

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Posted 18 February 2014 - 02:48 PM

It wasn't a post meant to blame Lou, which I is what I think you were getting at.

 

Still, knowing you have to fill a need and being able to do it are two separate things.  With Schneider the planets were alligned perfectly to make that happen.  Adding Loktionov, D'Agostini, Sullivan and Poni last year isn't really going to go down as a stroke of brilliance, although that's probably the best he could do with the cards he had.

 

 

 

 

 

Kostopolous too

 

cant blame lou too much myself; i want to see all the younger guys up including bouch and matts but i can wait another year so.

 

awesome thread though.

 

i do want cammalleri too but i can see how it might not fit.


Edited by lazer, 18 February 2014 - 02:49 PM.

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#124 Daniel

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Posted 18 February 2014 - 02:51 PM

I don't think you realize how bad a team like Buffalo or Calgary are.

 

That's two teams.  After that, you can probably pencil in Florida as being worse than the Devils no matter what happens next year.  That makes winning the lottery plausible.

 

Right now, the Devils would have the number 7 pick.  If you take away Jagr, who will either be older or gone next year, that could easily get a lot worse.  The even worse decline in the offense would more than make up for the lost points that Marty has caused this year, and Marty actually had a stretch where he was pretty good. 


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#125 thecoffeecake

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Posted 18 February 2014 - 03:14 PM

If you take away Jagr, who will either be older or gone next year, that could easily get a lot worse.

I'd put my money on the team performing much better without Jagr.


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#126 Devilsfan118

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Posted 18 February 2014 - 03:46 PM

I'd put my money on the team performing much better without Jagr.

 

How?  How do you figure losing the scoring leader will lead to a better overall record?


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#127 LucifersDog

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Posted 18 February 2014 - 05:06 PM

Three ways,

 

retaining Lou

 

retaining DeBoer

 

Not being able to score goals consistently


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#128 Triumph

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Posted 18 February 2014 - 05:48 PM

That's two teams.  After that, you can probably pencil in Florida as being worse than the Devils no matter what happens next year.  That makes winning the lottery plausible.

 

Right now, the Devils would have the number 7 pick.  If you take away Jagr, who will either be older or gone next year, that could easily get a lot worse.  The even worse decline in the offense would more than make up for the lost points that Marty has caused this year, and Marty actually had a stretch where he was pretty good. 

 

Okay, let's knock off this 'Marty actually had a stretch where he was pretty good' talk.  Yes, that happened.  That is bound to happen with any bad goalie who gets enough starts.  Randomness happens.  If you roll a 10 sided die to simulate goal scoring where 1 is a goal and every other number is not, there'll be long stretches without 1s.

 

I agree that yeah that's how it looks, though I would throw Toronto, Colorado, Phoenix, Long Island, Philadelphia, Washington, and Carolina in as teams who are on par with even a Jagr-less NJ, but it's silly to look at it that way because the Devils aren't going to sit on their hands this off-season.


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#129 Devil Dan 56

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Posted 18 February 2014 - 06:48 PM

That's two teams.  After that, you can probably pencil in Florida as being worse than the Devils no matter what happens next year.  That makes winning the lottery plausible.

 

Right now, the Devils would have the number 7 pick.  If you take away Jagr, who will either be older or gone next year, that could easily get a lot worse.  The even worse decline in the offense would more than make up for the lost points that Marty has caused this year, and Marty actually had a stretch where he was pretty good. 

 

You're not factoring in that if Jagr leaves, he'd be replaced. Anything that replaces Marty will also be better. The defense should be better too, and the young defensemen coming in have more offense to their games which should lead to more shots on net. The Devils currently have the second least shots on net in the league. For example, if they were middle of the pack in shots on net with their current shooting percentage, they'd have nearly 20 more goals. With Schneider in net, that's huge. 


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#130 Mike Brown

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Posted 18 February 2014 - 06:48 PM

Yeah I'm not getting into this again with you, but Jagr should get a late 1st, no question.  He's having a better season on an arguably worse team than last year with Dallas, when he was traded for a conditional 2nd (that had a good chance of being a 1st) and two prospects.  He'll get the same if not more this year, if Lou shops well.
 
Zidlicky.. it depends on the interest.  There are stupid GMs in this league, if Lou can pit enough of them against each other it could happen.  
 
The Penguins traded a 2nd and a conditional 2nd for Murray - I'd be shocked if Lou got less than that for Zidlicky.  And I'd take either a 1st or that deal for Zidlicky.


You're looking at this way too simply. Simply comparing to past seasons is not a good method to project a player's trade value.
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#131 CarterforPresident

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Posted 18 February 2014 - 06:54 PM

And you're not looking at it fully either. He's talking about how GM's will spend for what they need. It happens every season, and with Jagr its likely and Zid, it can happen if a GM thinks he NEEDS it.

You're looking at this way too simply. Simply comparing to past seasons is not a good method to project a player's trade value.


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#132 Devil Dan 56

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Posted 18 February 2014 - 06:54 PM

You're looking at this way too simply. Simply comparing to past seasons is not a good method to project a player's trade value.

 

When the exact same player just got traded last deadline, it's definitely a good place to start. He's a veteran who was in the finals last year and leads a very bad offensive team in scoring. If a team thinks adding him would greatly improve their ability to win them a cup, why wouldn't they give up a supposed 30th overall pick or a conditional 2nd that can turn into a 1st like last year?


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#133 Mike Brown

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Posted 18 February 2014 - 07:02 PM

When the exact same player just got traded last deadline, it's definitely a good place to start. He's a veteran who was in the finals last year and leads a very bad offensive team in scoring. If a team thinks adding him would greatly improve their ability to win them a cup, why wouldn't they give up a supposed 30th overall pick or a conditional 2nd that can turn into a 1st like last year?


The problem is he's a year older, and he wasn't good after he got traded. He was bad with the Bruins. Besides, we're only 3 points out, and trading him would be a mistake.
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#134 Daniel

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Posted 18 February 2014 - 07:02 PM

Okay, let's knock off this 'Marty actually had a stretch where he was pretty good' talk. Yes, that happened. That is bound to happen with any bad goalie who gets enough starts. Randomness happens. If you roll a 10 sided die to simulate goal scoring where 1 is a goal and every other number is not, there'll be long stretches without 1s.

I agree that yeah that's how it looks, though I would throw Toronto, Colorado, Phoenix, Long Island, Philadelphia, Washington, and Carolina in as teams who are on par with even a Jagr-less NJ, but it's silly to look at it that way because the Devils aren't going to sit on their hands this off-season.


Oy vey. I am suggesting a scenario for next season, which assumes that Schneider is getting 70 starts. In order to nip this constant harping that if not for Marty we would have won the last seven Stanley Cups in the bud, I just said that we got lucky this year that he had a pretty good stretch, and probably didn't cost as many points as a goalie that otherwise has sub .900 save percnetage would. In other words, I am assuming that the goaltending is going to be better.

In any event, while Lou might give it his best shot, I just don't see the moves he could make that will help the team score significantly more goals. There's Statsny, but the odds say he's playing somewhere else. After perhaps Vanek, everyone else is of the Michael Ryder mode, they'll help plug in holes, but that's about it. I'd rather take my chances and see if we can get a good pick instead of signing the Devin Settigucci's and Mason Raymond's of the world.


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#135 Devil Dan 56

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Posted 18 February 2014 - 07:09 PM

The problem is he's a year older, and he wasn't good after he got traded. He was bad with the Bruins. Besides, we're only 3 points out, and trading him would be a mistake.

 

Jagr was bad with the Bruins? He had 9 points in 11 games in the regular season. Even though he didn't score in the playoffs, he put up 58 shots on 22 games. That's about 2.5 shots per game. He was monumentally unlucky, but not bad. And the "I don't think we'll make the playoffs but we might" thing makes no sense. If you can get a return for Jagr and don't plan on re-signing him, of course you do it. 


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#136 Mike Brown

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Posted 18 February 2014 - 07:10 PM

And you're not looking at it fully either. He's talking about how GM's will spend for what they need. It happens every season, and with Jagr its likely and Zid, it can happen if a GM thinks he NEEDS it.


Fair enough, but I wouldn't trade him unless he requests a trade. What if there is no GM willing to give up a first or second for him? We might as well keep him. He's too important to this team in order to make the playoffs.
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#137 CarterforPresident

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Posted 18 February 2014 - 07:11 PM

He may have not put up the points in the post season, but he was FAR from bad, he did everything else he was brought their for. Mike is just staring at the stat sheet.

Jagr was bad with the Bruins? He had 9 points in 11 games in the regular season. Even though he didn't score in the playoffs, he put up 58 shots on 22 games. That's about 2.5 shots per game. He was monumentally unlucky, but not bad. And the "I don't think we'll make the playoffs but we might" thing makes no sense. If you can get a return for Jagr and don't plan on re-signing him, of course you do it.


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#138 Daniel

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Posted 18 February 2014 - 07:13 PM

Jagr was bad with the Bruins? He had 9 points in 11 games in the regular season. Even though he didn't score in the playoffs, he put up 58 shots on 22 games. That's about 2.5 shots per game. He was monumentally unlucky, but not bad. And the "I don't think we'll make the playoffs but we might" thing makes no sense. If you can get a return for Jagr and don't plan on re-signing him, of course you do it.


If you think there's a shot at the playoffs by the deadline, you keep him, even if you know you're not re-signing him. Once in the playoffs, anything is possible. Even moreso when you have someone as good as Schneider.


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#139 Mike Brown

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Posted 18 February 2014 - 07:13 PM

Jagr was bad with the Bruins? He had 9 points in 11 games in the regular season. Even though he didn't score in the playoffs, he put up 58 shots on 22 games. That's about 2.5 shots per game. He was monumentally unlucky, but not bad. And the "I don't think we'll make the playoffs but we might" thing makes no sense. If you can get a return for Jagr and don't plan on re-signing him, of course you do it.


You can into that theory if you want, but most Bruins fans will tell you he sucked. Regardless, you should never trade your best players if you're in a playoff race.
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#140 Mike Brown

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Posted 18 February 2014 - 07:17 PM

He may have not put up the points in the post season, but he was FAR from bad, he did everything else he was brought their for. Mike is just staring at the stat sheet.


I actually watched him play for the B's. He wasn't good. He doesn't do well as a depth forward which is basically what he was in Boston. He's at his best when he's in a top 6 role.

If you think there's a shot at the playoffs by the deadline, you keep him, even if you know you're not re-signing him. Once in the playoffs, anything is possible. Even moreso when you have someone as good as Schneider.

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Agreed. I've seen the unexpected happen almost as often as the expected. It's crazy how unpredictable the NHL playoffs are.
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