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The Quest for 91


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#1 Devils Pride 26

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Posted 02 March 2014 - 10:02 PM

3/18 Update

 

Still have a chance


Edited by Devils Pride 26, 18 March 2014 - 11:08 PM.

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#2 Mike Brown

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Posted 02 March 2014 - 10:58 PM

Just for the record, getting to 91 points gives us a 64.7 - 65.5% chance to get in.  92 points right now gives us a 82.1 - 85.3% chance.


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#3 Devils Pride 26

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Posted 02 March 2014 - 11:04 PM

Just for the record, getting to 91 points gives us a 64.7 - 65.5% chance to get in.  92 points right now gives us a 82.1 - 85.3% chance.

That makes things look even worse


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#4 Neb00rs

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Posted 02 March 2014 - 11:08 PM

We need 95 points.


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#5 CarpathianForest

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Posted 02 March 2014 - 11:16 PM

With that schedule I'd gather that we're not going to do it.


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#6 mrthemike

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Posted 02 March 2014 - 11:41 PM

http://www.sportsclu.../NewJersey.html


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#7 CarpathianForest

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Posted 03 March 2014 - 12:11 AM

We have to win 14 of our next games and expect one of the teams around us to make the playoffs.


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#8 Mike Brown

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Posted 03 March 2014 - 01:03 AM

We need 95 points.

 

We'd have to go on a surprise run to accomplish that.  It's definitely very doable though.

 

15-5-0

14-4-2

13-3-4

12-2-6

11-1-8

10-0-10

 

With that schedule I'd gather that we're not going to do it.

 

We have a light schedule the rest of the way.  The only great team we have to face is Boston.  The rest of the games are against teams that are either on our level or below us.


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#9 TheMazz

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Posted 03 March 2014 - 01:18 AM

We'd have to go on a surprise run to accomplish that.  It's definitely very doable though.

 

15-5-0

14-4-2

13-3-4

12-2-6

11-1-8

10-0-10

 

 

We have a light schedule the rest of the way.  The only great team we have to face is Boston.  The rest of the games are against teams that are either on our level or below us.

 

And we're sh!t against awful teams and only show up when we face the Blues and Bruins of the world.


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#10 Mike Brown

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Posted 03 March 2014 - 03:18 AM

And we're sh!t against awful teams and only show up when we face the Blues and Bruins of the world.

 

I believe this fact gets a little overblown.  I also believe that they won't let this happen down the stretch.  Now what is gonna suck is all the back to backs. If we were a younger team , I wouldn't be concerned.  But being the oldest team in the league means it's gonna take its toll.

 

vs top 10 Teams: 9-9-4

vs middle 10 teams: 9-9-6

vs bottom 10 teams: 8-5-3

 

Here's how the schedule breaks down.

 

Top 10 teams: 3 games

Middle 10 teams: 8 games

Bottom 10 teams: 9 games


Edited by Mike Brown, 03 March 2014 - 03:25 AM.

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#11 Colorado Rockies 1976

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Posted 03 March 2014 - 07:20 AM

There's a lot of ways you can look at this, and it involves some cherry-picking. 

 

The overall record isn't very good, but the Devils really haven't had a brutal stretch since they were 12-15-6.  They've gone 14-8-7 since.  That's a .603 point%.  Obviously, part of the reason for the improved play over that time is Cory playing so well...and it's safe to say that if Cory has a slump, the Devils are pretty much screwed...I can't see them ever scoring consistently enough to overcome Cory not playing at his best.  It's the same ol' story...one guy gets hot (right now it's Henrique), another goes ice cold. 

 

I don't think 91 points gets it done.  I also think if it's going to take 95 points, then the Devils shouldn't be buyers, because I can't make a case for them coming up with 75% of the points needed to make that happen over the next 20 games, and I don't see any move or moves out there that Lou can make that could possibly improve the Devils by that much.  Fortunately I think 92-94 will probably (hopefully) be enough. 

 

Here's what you're looking at, as far what the Devils have to do over their final 20 games to reach certain totals, points%-wise:

 

91:  65% 

92:  67.5%

93:  70%

94:  72.5%

95:  75% 

 

Of course, an actual winning streak would make the above look a lot less daunting (a four-game winning streak would work wonders), but it doesn't seem like the Devils can pull one off...just hard to do when you're near the bottom of the league in goal-scoring.  The good news is Cory's goaltending and the Devils' penchant for holding shot totals down has helped them AVOID big losing streaks too.  The most games they've gone without earning at least one point in that 14-8-7 run is two.   

 

Anyway, suffice it to say that the NHL. 500, "treading water" stretches the Devils are prone to have to stop.  On January 24, the Devils got to the three games over NHL .500 for the first time.  10 games later (4-4-2), they're still three games over.  If the Devils have another stretch like that at some point over the next 20, that means they'll have go 8-1-1 in the other games to get to 92 points, which seems like an awful lot to ask.  At this point, I think the Devils can't be seen as any better than 50-50 to get in.   


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#12 ThreeCups

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Posted 03 March 2014 - 09:37 AM

The season comes down to the 2 games vs Detroit this week


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#13 mouse

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Posted 03 March 2014 - 09:59 AM

The season comes down to the 2 games vs Detroit this week

I think we can split those, as long as we beat Carolina. We need to stop going to OT in winnable games, though.


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#14 Triumph

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Posted 03 March 2014 - 11:23 AM

I think we can split those, as long as we beat Carolina. We need to stop going to OT in winnable games, though.

 

Carolina's basically done.  They're farther out of it than NJ is.  NJ needs at least 3 points in those games and ideally Detroit would come out of them with no more than 1 point.


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#15 mouse

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Posted 03 March 2014 - 12:06 PM

Carolina's basically done.  They're farther out of it than NJ is.  NJ needs at least 3 points in those games and ideally Detroit would come out of them with no more than 1 point.

That's why I'm saying we need to get 2 points against them. IMO we need at least 4 points in those games, preferably 5.


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#16 Mike Brown

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Posted 05 March 2014 - 04:30 PM

I would have been happy with a split with Detroit.  But I think we need to get greedy on Friday.


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#17 Z-Man

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Posted 05 March 2014 - 05:01 PM

http://www.sportsclu.../NewJersey.html

 

An estimated 87% chance of the playoffs if the Devils can hit 92 pts.  It drops to 65-70% at 91 pts.

 

Of course 92 points would mean a 12-6-1 finish.  Not very likely.


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#18 Colorado Rockies 1976

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Posted 05 March 2014 - 05:08 PM

http://www.sportsclu.../NewJersey.html

 

An estimated 87% chance of the playoffs if the Devils can hit 92 pts.  It drops to 65-70% at 91 pts.

 

Of course 92 points would mean a 12-6-1 finish.  Not very likely.

 

Devils are 15-8-7 in their last 30 (.617 point%).  They have to go .657 in point% the rest of the way.  It's not that big of a jump. 

 

Of course, PDB actually stating/implying that the #1 goalie spot is still up for grabs probably means there's going to be some avoidable losses along the way.  I can't imagine how Cory must feel right now...Marty is allowed to have all the meh games he wants, but Cory has one and he's benched.  Sadly hilarious. 


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THE NHL MUST LOVE THE DEVILS - from who else? A RANGER fan!
[Mark Messier]: A big, bald attention whore with a stupid Easter Island-lookin face. - from who else? DaneykoIsGod!

Even when Marty comes back maybe Larry should put Clemmensen to be on the goal during the shootouts.
Can the coach do that ? Switch the goalies 5 seconds to go in overtime?
- Most priceless quote ever posted on a message board.

Martin Brodeur: THE MOST ALL-TIME WINS!, 12 straight seasons of 30+ wins, 3 Stanley Cups, 4 Vezina Trophies, and zero respect from too many so-called Devils "fans" who are either too young or too bandwagon to remember the much darker days of Sean Burke, Craig Billington, Bob Sauve, Alain Chevrier, and the talented but overwhelmed Chico Resch, among many others.

It's easy to support a great player when he's playing at his very best. It takes a true fan to support that same player during those rare moments and stretches when he's not. Babe Ruth went 0-4 some games, and sometimes Wayne Gretzky was held pointless. There may be such a thing as greatness, but no such thing as absolute perfection every single night.

#30 FOREVER!

20 out of 1,946 njdevs.com members agree: CR1976 is the Most Knowledgable Poster of 2008! Victory is mine...oh yes, victory is mine!

#19 2ELIAS6

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Posted 05 March 2014 - 05:36 PM

besides last nights game and saturdays game brodeur hadnt played in almost a month... its been schneider consistently
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#20 Devils Pride 26

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Posted 05 March 2014 - 07:56 PM

19 games left - 12-6-1 to hit 92 points


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