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The Quest for 91


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#61 Neb00rs

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Posted 13 March 2014 - 11:01 AM

The Flyers are the 8th seed as of now with 73 points and 17 games remaining. Columbus is in 7th with the same. If either wins 10 of those games they will have 93 points. Even 8-6-3 gives them 92 points. Detroit is tied with us at 71 with a game in hand. There is a very good chance at least 2 out of 3 of these teams are going to accumulate 19 or 20 more points. I would stop counting on 91 by now; it's an outside shot. 

 

On a side note, not including last year's shortened season, 91 points hasn't gotten any team in since 2009-2010 (3 teams in the East) and not since 2008-2009 in the West (one team). Overall, since the full season lockout 10 years ago, 5 teams have made the playoffs with 91 points or less (3 East, 2 West).


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#62 Colorado Rockies 1976

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Posted 13 March 2014 - 11:06 AM

I think most fans have given up on 91 being enough.  I think some have even given up on 92.  Until I see someone ahead of the Devils really take off and win 5-6 in a row, I'm sticking with 92 getting it done.


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#63 HellOnICE

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Posted 13 March 2014 - 11:09 AM

92 is probably the number - I think.

 

Despite our game, Flyers have played well...I will say though, they are going back-to-back with Pittsburgh this weekend, Chicago, Dallas, St. Louis all in the next week. Yes most of the games are at home, but that's not an easy schedule.  The time for the Devils to get over this hump of winning streaks is now.

 

Tampa seems shaky since the deadline, we'll see.

Detroit is banged up, they keep plugging away, but maybe will run out of gas.


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#64 dmann422

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Posted 13 March 2014 - 11:11 AM

The Flyers are the 8th seed as of now with 73 points and 17 games remaining. Columbus is in 7th with the same. If either wins 10 of those games they will have 93 points. Even 8-6-3 gives them 92 points. Detroit is tied with us at 71 with a game in hand. There is a very good chance at least 2 out of 3 of these teams are going to accumulate 19 or 20 more points. I would stop counting on 91 by now; it's an outside shot.

On a side note, not including last year's shortened season, 91 points hasn't gotten any team in since 2009-2010 (3 teams in the East) and not since 2008-2009 in the West (one team). Overall, since the full season lockout 10 years ago, 5 teams have made the playoffs with 91 points or less (3 East, 2 West).

generally everyone (except for the op, I guess) looking at points has said 92 should be the target all along. Even then it's probably 50-50 that it gets us in.

I will be very impressed if the flyers can win 10 games the rest of the way. I posted their schedule in the oot thread and it's absolutely brutal. I have a feeling Columbus will probably take one of the division spots, so for us we need to hope for a rags falter (our game against them will be huge) or a wild card spot- with either Detroit or Tampa slipping in the home stretch.
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#65 HellOnICE

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Posted 13 March 2014 - 11:16 AM

Tampa has 2 wins in 10 games. They are the ones we need to take advantage of. They do, though, have 11/17 games left at home. Including 6 of the last 7.


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#66 Neb00rs

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Posted 13 March 2014 - 11:18 AM

The one positive is that the 6 spot (NYR) has one more point than 7 and 8 and an extra game played than them. i.e. the 6th spot is just as attainable as 7 or 8 and getting it would mean not playing Boston or Pittsburgh in the 1st round.


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#67 DJ Eco

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Posted 13 March 2014 - 12:16 PM

The one positive is that the 6 spot (NYR) has one more point than 7 and 8 and an extra game played than them. i.e. the 6th spot is just as attainable as 7 or 8 and getting it would mean not playing Boston or Pittsburgh in the 1st round.

 

I want Pittsburgh in the first round so badly and I'm not being sarcastic either...


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#68 Mike Brown

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Posted 13 March 2014 - 03:01 PM

I think most fans have given up on 91 being enough.  I think some have even given up on 92.  Until I see someone ahead of the Devils really take off and win 5-6 in a row, I'm sticking with 92 getting it done.

 

91 points gives us a 74.4, 77.8, or 80.5 percent chance at getting in.

 

http://www.sportsclu.../NewJersey.html

 

A big reason for that is because there is still 36 games left between the teams around us where those teams play each other.  That's not including the games we play against them.  We have 6 games left with those teams.

 

Remember, each time two teams that are in on the dogfight play each other, it's a guarantee that only a max of 3 points will get handed out as opposed to the maximum of 4.  For example, if the Flyers and Rags are playing the Panthers and Sabres on the same day, then there is a possibility that both the Flyers and Rags each walk out with 2 points which means that's 4 points we didn't want handed out.

 

But if they play each other, you know only one of those teams will walk out with a guaranteed 2 points.  At most the other team will walk out with one point.


I want Pittsburgh in the first round so badly and I'm not being sarcastic either...

 

Agreed.  Their defense is so soft.  Especially with Letang done for the season.


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#69 DJ Eco

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Posted 13 March 2014 - 04:15 PM

Agreed.  Their defense is so soft.  Especially with Letang done for the season.

 

They have NOT matched up well against us at ALL, and for YEARS. I confirmed with my buddies who are Pens fans and they agreed that the Devils are probably the last team they'd want to draw in the first round. Their fanbase is very aware of how consistently bad they play the Devils in important games.


Edited by DJ Eco, 13 March 2014 - 04:15 PM.

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#70 2ELIAS6

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Posted 13 March 2014 - 04:19 PM

The one positive is that the 6 spot (NYR) has one more point than 7 and 8 and an extra game played than them. i.e. the 6th spot is just as attainable as 7 or 8 and getting it would mean not playing Boston or Pittsburgh in the 1st round.

this would be great but i doubt we are just going to end up leaping over those teams ahead of us right now to pop in the 6th spot.. the rangers have been pretty strong and even though were only like 3 points behind them right now i dont think theyre just going to go soft either if they win tonight now were back to 5 points behind (obviously).. i just think it sounds better then the realism of it
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#71 Neb00rs

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Posted 13 March 2014 - 08:06 PM

this would be great but i doubt we are just going to end up leaping over those teams ahead of us right now to pop in the 6th spot.. the rangers have been pretty strong and even though were only like 3 points behind them right now i dont think theyre just going to go soft either if they win tonight now were back to 5 points behind (obviously).. i just think it sounds better then the realism of it

 

This is true, no doubt, but statistically speaking we can't value catching the Rangers over catching the BJ's or the Flyers.

 

Mike Brown, those percentages are silly in my opinion. You need to look at the simple numbers. 6,7,8 all need about 19 points in 17 games to pass 91.

 

 


Edited by Neb00rs, 13 March 2014 - 08:12 PM.

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#72 Mike Brown

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Posted 13 March 2014 - 08:20 PM

They have NOT matched up well against us at ALL, and for YEARS. I confirmed with my buddies who are Pens fans and they agreed that the Devils are probably the last team they'd want to draw in the first round. Their fanbase is very aware of how consistently bad they play the Devils in important games.

 

Exactly!  The Devils have their number.  Bring them on!


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#73 Neb00rs

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Posted 13 March 2014 - 08:25 PM

Though the Devils have played well versus the Pens in recent history, it would be unwise to seek to go in head first and play them in the first round. You can't pick and choose playoff opponents (we have to just be happy if we get in) but if you honestly would rather play the Pens than say...the Maple Leafs, then you need an awakening.


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#74 Mike Brown

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Posted 13 March 2014 - 08:35 PM

This is true, no doubt, but statistically speaking we can't value catching the Rangers over catching the BJ's or the Flyers.

 

Mike Brown, those percentages are silly in my opinion. You need to look at the simple numbers. 6,7,8 all need about 19 points in 17 games to pass 91. 

 

There's a lot of games where those teams play each other.  It would be difficult for them all to get to 91 points.

 

There are 36 games where Toronto, Montreal, NY Rangers, Columbus, Tampa, Philly, Detroit, Washington, Ottawa, and Carolina play each other.


Edited by Mike Brown, 13 March 2014 - 08:37 PM.

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#75 Neb00rs

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Posted 13 March 2014 - 08:39 PM

There's a lot of games where those teams play each other.  It would be difficult for them all to get to 91 points.

 

There are 36 games where Toronto, Montreal, NY Rangers, Columbus, Tampa, Philly, Detroit, Washington, Ottawa, and Carolina play each other.

 

Irrelevant. We are talking about the 3 teams I mentioned. 2 of them will most likely get 20 more points.


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#76 Mike Brown

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Posted 13 March 2014 - 08:53 PM

Irrelevant. We are talking about the 3 teams I mentioned. 2 of them will most likely get 20 more points.

 

Except there are 8 teams who will be in the playoffs.  Two spots are pretty much locked right now.  That leaves 6 spots.  In order for 91 not to be the cutoff, that means 6 other teams not including BOS or PIT have to get to 92 points.  The likelihood of that happening is very small.  Why?  Because of what I just said.  There's 41 games where all 11 teams in the mix play each other.  The Devils have 5 games with the 10 other teams in the mix.


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#77 Neb00rs

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Posted 13 March 2014 - 09:05 PM

Except there are 8 teams who will be in the playoffs.  Two spots are pretty much locked right now.  That leaves 6 spots.  In order for 91 not to be the cutoff, that means 6 other teams not including BOS or PIT have to get to 92 points.  The likelihood of that happening is very small.  Why?  Because of what I just said.  There's 41 games where all 11 teams in the mix play each other.  The Devils have 5 games with the 10 other teams in the mix.

 

:doh1: But the higher seeded teams need less points to reach 92...which they will.


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#78 Mike Brown

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Posted 13 March 2014 - 09:08 PM

:doh1: But the higher seeded teams need less points to reach 92...which they will.

 

Here's what all 11 teams have to do to get to 92 points.  The chance of 6 of the following 11 teams getting to 92 points is there, but not very likely.

 

Tampa Bay: 8-8-1 or 7-7-3

Montreal: 7-7-1 or 6-6-3

Toronto: 6-7-2 or 7-8-0

Detroit: 10-6-1 or 9-5-3

Ottawa: 11-4-2

NY Rangers: 8-6-2 or 9-7-0

Columbus: 8-6-2 or 9-7-0

New Jersey: 10-5-1 or 9-4-3

Philadelphia: 8-6-3 or 9-7-1

Washington: 10-3-2

Carolina: 12-3-1


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#79 Neb00rs

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Posted 13 March 2014 - 09:17 PM

Here's what all 11 teams have to do to get to 92 points.  The chance of 6 of the following 11 teams getting to 92 points is there, but not very likely.

 

Tampa Bay: 8-8-1 or 7-7-3

Montreal: 7-7-1 or 6-6-3

Toronto: 6-7-2 or 7-8-0

Detroit: 10-6-1 or 9-5-3

Ottawa: 11-4-2

NY Rangers: 8-6-2 or 9-7-0

Columbus: 8-6-2 or 9-7-0

New Jersey: 10-5-1 or 9-4-3

Philadelphia: 8-6-3 or 9-7-1

Washington: 10-3-2

Carolina: 12-3-1

 

I'm sorry but what on  Earth are you talking about? The only teams that need to get to 92 to eliminate 91 as an entry point for us are teams currently seeded 1-9. Teams 1-5 WILL get 92 points unless a catastrophic collapse. Of 6,7,8,9 the likelihood that those teams get to 92 is also high. Perhaps 1 or 2 doesn't but that is a perhaps and only 1 not getting there eliminates 91 from the 8th spot. You are overthinking this.

 

Your point that teams play each other is what it is; silly and obvious.


Edited by Neb00rs, 13 March 2014 - 09:18 PM.

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#80 Mike Brown

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Posted 13 March 2014 - 09:23 PM

I'm sorry but what on  Earth are you talking about? The only teams that need to get to 92 to eliminate 91 as an entry point for us are teams currently seeded 1-9. Teams 1-5 WILL get 92 points unless a catastrophic collapse. Of 6,7,8,9 the likelihood that those teams get to 92 is also high. Perhaps 1 or 2 doesn't but that is a perhaps and only 1 not getting there eliminates 91 from the 8th spot. You are overthinking this.

 

Your point that teams play each other is what it is; silly and obvious.

 

Well if you want to be simple.  8 teams need at least 92 points to make 91 points not enough to make the playoffs.  Chances of that happening are slim.


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